(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Hope Ukraine can use the confusion and paralysis for a breakthrough somewhere. This is the best possible time for something like this to happen.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:16 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 10:03 |
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CommissarMega posted:Yeah, I don't think anyone in Russia would be okay with Kadyrov being in charge, regardless of what TikTok Rambo thinks. But if he plays kingmaker for Prigozhin, that's a lot of power right there, much more than a regional leader is ostensibly supposed to have. Under no circumstances will Kadyrov or any non-ethnic Russian be tolerated in the big seat. It is simply unthinkable, you would see the entire dissolution of the Russian Federation into its constituent republics before you see a non-Russian in the top spot. Even Stalin, a Georgian, completely rejected his entire heritage to the point of changing his name to his nom de guerre and hiring a voice coach to help him get rid of his Georgian accent when speaking Russian
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:16 |
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HonorableTB posted:Realtalk, Russia operates on some slightly different rules than countries you may be used to. Just a thought. Are we over-estimating the strength of the Russian regime as badly as we over-estimated the strength of the Russian army?
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:16 |
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GABA ghoul posted:Hope Ukraine can use the confusion and paralysis for a breakthrough somewhere. This is the best possible time for something like this to happen. Remember that Rostov was essentially the nerve center for central command of the invading forces. It also served as the primary logistics hub for supplies reaching the front. The loss of these supplies and the command center landed the invasion force in big trouble, especially if the Ukrainians exploit this to destroy as many known logistics locations on their occupied land as possible.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:18 |
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:20 |
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Funky See Funky Do posted:Just a thought. Are we over-estimating the strength of the Russian regime as badly as we over-estimated the strength of the Russian army? Not really. "Strength" here is a very relative term but one thing has remained constant throughout the entirety of the Russian Imperial existence through to the USSR and now in the Russian Federation. The tsar/general secretary/president has always, ALWAYS maintained a separate internal security force loyal to himself first and foremost, and the state second. The tsars had the Okhrana, the Soviets had the Cheka/NKVD/KGB, the Russian Federation has OMON and Rosgvardia. These organizations have typically operated outside of normal military hierarchies and traditionally answerable only to the tsar/gen sec/president directly. Prior to the invasion of 2022, and throughout it, Putin has increased the pay and conditions of his internal troops because they are the key to his continued life. It is a very real possibility that the internal troops Russia has are better equipped and in better conditions than the actual Ministry of Defense troops in the field in Ukraine. Think of them as Putin's praetorian guard. He has gone way out of his way to turn them into his core base. Is it still a possibility that they turn on him? Sure, absolutely. It happened to several Russian tsars, same as it happened to the Roman emperors whose praetorians assassinated them. I don't think it's very likely though. tldr: it's not overestimated the Russian regime's strength so much as it is honestly evaluating it in the context of it being russian forces vs russian forces, and adjusting the curve from there.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:21 |
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672503379019350020 This is one of the biggest missile strikes I've seen them launch in a long time.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:21 |
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Grape posted:Russia as a general rule feels like it's co-written by Cormac McCarthy and Larry David. That's a... Lol of sorts. A sad lol at the state of this plane of existence that a sentence like this can be written and it makes sense.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:21 |
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HonorableTB posted:It is a very real possibility that the internal troops Russia has are better equipped and in better conditions than the actual Ministry of Defense troops in the field in Ukraine. Think of them as Putin's praetorian guard. He has gone way out of his way to turn them into his core base. The praetorian guard were loving worthless in battles though.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:22 |
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Fighterbomber telegram channel reports that 2 Mi-8 EW helicopters were shot down in combat with the Wanker SS. They lost two more of these when their own air defense went haywire in Bryansk. Now there are 18 remaining of 22.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:26 |
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Randarkman posted:The praetorian guard were loving worthless in battles though. Yeah you weren't really supposed to use them that way, but like most things in this war, the stupidest choice was picked zone posted:
An...EW...helicopter???? I dove into this and found a profile on its capabilities: quote:While detailed information about Russia’s electronic warfare (EW) helicopters has been difficult to obtain in the past, sufficient open-source information is now available about this previously highly classified subject, enabling us to get a basic understanding of the functionality and capabilities of the currently fielded systems. lmao helicopters are constantly trying their hardest to crash into the ground because they are an affront to physics itself, why the gently caress would you turn them into an EW platform? and that goes for any other dumbass country that thinks this is a good idea too *looks at US* HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Jun 24, 2023 |
# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:26 |
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zone posted:https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672503379019350020 I'm surprised they haven't redirected those at Prigozhin's coup forces.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:28 |
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HonorableTB posted:tldr: it's not overestimated the Russian regime's strength so much as it is honestly evaluating it in the context of it being russian forces vs russian forces, and adjusting the curve from there. Sorry I wasn't clear, I didn't mean in terms of military strength. I meant in the sense of its loyalty and support for Putin.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:28 |
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Funky See Funky Do posted:Sorry I wasn't clear, I didn't mean in terms of military strength. I meant in the sense of its loyalty and support for Putin. Yeah that's where I'm at. When they reach Moscow, does the security forces just let them walk in? Guess we'll find out.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:30 |
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Neddy Seagoon posted:I'm surprised they haven't redirected those at Prigozhin's coup forces. because that would absolutely ignite a civil war the kremlin isn’t sure it can win.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:31 |
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HonorableTB posted:Yeah you weren't really supposed to use them that way, but like most things in this war, the stupidest choice was picked "No need to turn on the jammers yet, we're still 10 minutes from Ukraine. Look, there's some of our guys, give 'em a wave."
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:31 |
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Funky See Funky Do posted:Just a thought. Are we over-estimating the strength of the Russian regime as badly as we over-estimated the strength of the Russian army? wagner hasn't really run into organized resistance in russia they way they did in ukraine, at least not yet. he caught putin's forces flat footed, but unless they can actually take and hold moscow in the next day or two they are gonna have to deal with some kind of organized force. the regime looks super weak right now because in the west we generally assume that local areas are given some sort of means and opportunity to protect themselves and some sort of SOP to follow for adverse situations. but that's never really been the case in russia to the extent we expect in the west, and it's even less the case under putin because he's been ruthlessly centralizing power for decades now. even places like rostov fall fairly easily if there's no plan in place for contingencies. cats like honorable can probably comment further but overall i think it's telling that within like 30 minutes of Prig declaring war, we had confirmation that Operation Fortress had been enacted around moscow. no such plan was implemented in rostov. i'm not so arrogant as to offer an unequivocal explanation for this, but that implies to me that said plan was either overlooked by way of hubris (e.g.: "enemies will NEVER attack here!") or intentional policy (e.g.: "this place isn't moscow, the seat of power, so it's not THAT important.") this entire day has been stupid as hell so obviously we'd be fools to rule anything out as impossible, but i think it's reasonable to assume that moscow will be properly organized and behind putin, and we've seen that wagner can be defeated by an organized opponent once already in ukraine.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:32 |
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Funky See Funky Do posted:Sorry I wasn't clear, I didn't mean in terms of military strength. I meant in the sense of its loyalty and support for Putin. That's a whole other question and one that's a lot trickier. I've got a lot of training in Kremlinology (yes this is a real thing) and my professional opinion of this is: poo poo is so far off the rails at this point that I cannot honestly tell you something will or won't happen, or even be able to give you an informed enough opinion as to be worth anything. On one hand, I think it's a signifier of Putin's strength over his regime that the war has lasted as long as it has. A weak leader doesn't survive a war like this for as long as he has without a firm grasp over the levers of power. On the other hand, strong leaders don't have a significant portion of their military do a 180 and start invading in reverse I have no idea lol, and I think anyone who claims they do is full of poo poo. We're in uncharted waters here. I just try to provide historical and cultural context for what we're seeing so people can better understand it, to the extent that I can
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:32 |
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new Agenda-Free TV stream here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L30Jh8K_PxM
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:33 |
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HonorableTB posted:
lmfao we were posting almost the exact same goddamn thing at the exact same goddamn time, only difference is i lodged a half-hearted opinion ok i'm going to bed
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:34 |
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Is Wagner Wang havin a tussle on the monkeybars or is that just a buncha conjecture from the beltway
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:35 |
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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672500874113949696?t=h3Rui8V358I-8uBtpj_OXQ&s=19 Lol.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:36 |
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Slam Pajamas posted:Is Wagner Wang havin a tussle on the monkeybars or is that just a buncha conjecture from the beltway wagner is at the stage where they have taken over the wooden bridge side of the playground and theyre going for the slides, try and stop them if you can Coolguye posted:lmfao we were posting almost the exact same goddamn thing at the exact same goddamn time, only difference is i lodged a half-hearted opinion I should do that too, but how can I when I can finally put my otherwise useless degrees to work
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:37 |
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HonorableTB posted:wagner is at the stage where they have taken over the wooden bridge side of the playground and theyre going for the slides, try and stop them if you can but ah, they did it illegally, and if they don't apologize and go home their daddy will spank them then make them apologize.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:38 |
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https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672497439868084224
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:40 |
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Prig's huge balls (disclaimer: not a fan of the guy)
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:41 |
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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672500889439854596?t=ZBkXCGv0OV41pwyHbJG2IQ&s=19 Wonder if this true or bullshit.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:41 |
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Who even knows anymore? It's probably the smartest thing he could have done, given that Pigozhin probably has a hammer with his name on it.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:42 |
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CSM posted:https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672500889439854596?t=ZBkXCGv0OV41pwyHbJG2IQ&s=19 I'd say bullshit as it was reported. If it was true, surely nobody would be telling the world where he is and give Wagner a chance to hunt them down. Just go, hide and be "missing" cause loose lips get a trip out of high-story windows.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:43 |
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Gasmask posted:I said from the beginning that PMCs were a bad idea. Nobody listens to ol’ Gasmask
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:44 |
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CSM posted:https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1672500889439854596?t=ZBkXCGv0OV41pwyHbJG2IQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672388055590731777?s=20 admittedly from earlier in the day but the premise holds true
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:44 |
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Funky See Funky Do posted:Just a thought. Are we over-estimating the strength of the Russian regime as badly as we over-estimated the strength of the Russian army? I think 99% of the strength of the Russian regime is in Ukraine right now and not between Voronez and Moscow, where Wagner appears to be rn.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:46 |
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Oh well I guess Putin has shown his hand. I guess it's just up to how many loyal soldiers Pution has around Moscow these days. I would think they talk up their loyalty to Putin while standing back and waiting for the smoke to clear. Kadyrov seems to be able to keep Chechnya pretty well under his thumb, which is very useful to whoever ends up in charge. Other option is the full on Balkanization of Russia, I guess. I think these events end with Putin still in charge, at least in the short term, but maybe I'm once again overestimating the strength of Russia's military/institutions.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:46 |
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So lets talk a bit about Operation Fortress since Coolguye brought it up in their really nice post which people should read because it's insightful:Coolguye posted:wagner hasn't really run into organized resistance in russia they way they did in ukraine, at least not yet. he caught putin's forces flat footed, but unless they can actually take and hold moscow in the next day or two they are gonna have to deal with some kind of organized force. The part I want to highlight is the part about Fortress's implementation in Moscow vs the regions. The Fortress plans were adopted pre-war. Imminently pre-war. As in, days before the full scale invasion in February 2022. The Russian law governing the country's polity underwent changes that were designed to consolidate the existing political system. Similar to running on a treadmill, you run to stay in the same place. The changes here were two laws introduced into the Duma - "On the General Principles of the Organisation of Public Authority in the Constituent Entites of the Russian Federation", which came into power in December 2021, and "On the General Principles of the Organisation of Local Self-Government under the Unified System of Public Authority" also introduced in December 2021. Both laws build on the Russian constitutional amendment regarding a unified system of public authority, which includes all bodies of state power at the federal, regional, and local levels. The laws ensured that the Federal center would have almost limitless scope to interfere in the affairs of the regions, and for regional authorities to interfere in the affairs of municipalities - a top-down system. For example, federal authorities can influence regional staffing decisions in the areas of education, healthcare, etc while the president can override any of the decisions made by a governor in those areas, similar to the US system. Regional authorities can also take away important powers from municipalities. The tldr of this is, by design the system is meant so that any higher authority can override the decision of a lower authority. This breeds a system where lower authorities don't act because they see no point if their choices will just be overruled, so they naturally refer the matter up the chain. Because the end point of this chain is Putin, the president, no decision gets made until Putin gives some order or indication. Hence, Wagner took over two major cities in 24 hours because everything relies on Putin, or his delegate, to give the orders. Nobody in a lesser position will do it because of the fear of being overridden in conjunction with longstanding Soviet tradition of "do nothing without written orders from above". Authoritarianism.txt
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:47 |
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Tankies right now: How *dare* those libs cheer for Wagner Nazis? What the gently caress is *wrong* with them? I find this all very concerning.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:48 |
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Oldsmobile posted:I think 99% of the strength of the Russian regime is in Ukraine right now and not between Voronez and Moscow, where Wagner appears to be rn. There's the much vaunted interior security forces of various stripes. But I think it's fairly likely they're gonna decide that they didn't sign up for this.
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:48 |
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Don't worry Putin has his top men on it https://i.imgur.com/vEQn3xF.mp4
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:49 |
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672510543247155202 alea iacta est
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:49 |
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It's a tense situation. I'm sure we can count on the geniuses who brought us the hostomel airport strike and the glorious career of the Moskva to pull through. (Also, thanks HonorableTB for your posts!)
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:50 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 10:03 |
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I would blow Dane Cook posted:Don't worry Putin has his top men on it lol
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# ? Jun 24, 2023 08:51 |