(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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https://twitter.com/annavellikok/status/1672523579248787457 ahh thats my country alright
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Jun 24, 2023 10:06
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 23:20 |
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Apologies if this is an oversimplification of the whole thing, but does this essentially mean a civil war has broken out in Russia?
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Jun 24, 2023 10:10
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https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672497439868084224 You can't write comedy this good.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:12
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Dog Friday posted:Apologies if this is an oversimplification of the whole thing, but does this essentially mean a civil war has broken out in Russia? It’s perhaps a matter of definition, but there is a sizable faction (though how sizable is not clear) actively fighting against the government right now, yes. If this gets squashed within a day or two, I probably wouldn’t classify it as a civil war any more than the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:12
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Between going to bed and Prigozhin making weird statements that probably are theater and waking up to 400+ new posts a lot has happened. I’ve mostly lurked here to get a reliable news feed instead of the fake news, troll factory hellscape that’s twitter. I ran into @igorsushko and he’s making some crazy claims. Anyone know if this is just speculation or a more reliable account? “Best case” scenario I guess would be Putin/Prigozhin both get rid of and we’ll get someone more stable in charge while they give back UA territories. Seems incredibly unlikely, but the past ~ 12 hours is also something absolutely nobody would’ve predicted so I guess there’s hope.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:13
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sushko is extremely unreliableDog Friday posted:Apologies if this is an oversimplification of the whole thing, but does this essentially mean a civil war has broken out in Russia? no this is just a sparkling insurrection
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Jun 24, 2023 10:14
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Dog Friday posted:Apologies if this is an oversimplification of the whole thing, but does this essentially mean a civil war has broken out in Russia? They will talk and reach some sort of agreement I THINK. But the entire concept of Putin adressing the mutineers to talk them down is huge, unprecedented
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Jun 24, 2023 10:15
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Good morning. Holy gently caress I guess it wasn't all talk. Looks like all the PMCs are going fight even if the army is falling apart. https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1672528583284211712
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Jun 24, 2023 10:17
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nimby posted:I'm really curious how this is going to impact russian logistics into Ukraine. Prigozhin said he wants to let the military continue to run the war, but this has to have some pretty debilitating effects. If they are indeed looting military bases, fortifying Rostov and moving to Moscow that’s quite a few weapons that aren’t going to be used in Ukraine. I’d expect the logistic supply chain to Ukraine to be on hold for the time being.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:17
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Herstory Begins Now posted:no this is just a sparkling insurrection it's just a Mundane Paramilitary Operation, nothing to get excited about I hope Prigozhin is panicking hard and trying specifically to gain control over key logistical hubs/depots as leverage, and then it all gets blown up when negotiations fail
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Jun 24, 2023 10:18
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https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1672527838325403650
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Jun 24, 2023 10:20
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MeinPanzer posted:This is my thinking now too. This has gone too far to be swept under the rug. At best Putin might hope for a purge as in Turkey post-2016 coup, but his power has been so closely tied to his absolute control of the state and military that it’s hard to envision that successfully reestablishing stability. The post coup purges in Turkey also resulted in a catastrophic loss of competence from virtually all segments of the public service. It's one of the big contributors to Turkey's current state of ongoing disintegration. If Russia goes that route you get a tighter grip on power, yes, but it becomes less of a threat to it's neighbours.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:22
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Chalks posted:Good morning. Holy gently caress I guess it wasn't all talk. If true I bet that just causes more ethnic Russian regular army units in the area to side with Wagner
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Jun 24, 2023 10:22
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That could well be civilian as well as military, eek
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Jun 24, 2023 10:23
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Prigozhin got provoked by the army and he's betting that it's weak enough and demoralized enough that it will mostly roll over or be too weak to put up any meaningful resistance. He has a professional corps of his army that's been doing the war work for a while. Even though they fought hard in Bakmut, he would kept his veteran troops in reserve. He's a proven victor to the Russians, and compared to the Russian MoD's continuous failiure, that looks great to the regular person and soldier. The Rus patriots exist, just like Trump fans exist, and they are tired of losing, along with the rank and file Russian soldier. This is a calculated move by Prizgozin, who knows who will win. Wagner has the logistics to support tanks so that's serious enough. We'll see if Putin kept enough loyal guard in reserve and that his oligarch friends will bring their forces and influence to his side. There's no winner here either, either way whoever keeps power is going to be more brutal after they win it. Terebus fucked around with this message at 10:30 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 10:25
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https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1672531911921500162
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Jun 24, 2023 10:26
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Ghost tweet
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Jun 24, 2023 10:27
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Wagner currently controls more of Russia, than Russia controls of Ukraine https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1672494897385861120
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Jun 24, 2023 10:27
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Got any armor for that roadblock, I wonder
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Jun 24, 2023 10:27
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Charlz Guybon posted:If true I bet that just causes more ethnic Russian regular army units in the area to side with Wagner This might well could be
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Jun 24, 2023 10:27
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672536701997072384 quote:"Regarding the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken. We’re patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we are fighting, all fighters of PMC Wagner. And no one is going to surrender to the demands of the President, FSB, or anyone else. Because we don’t want the country to live further in corruption lies, and bureaucracy.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:27
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I read that Putin's security apparatus outnumbers the regular army by itself 2 to 1 so there's little chance Wagner poses any threat to Putin himself.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:30
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From Meduza: quote:Russian banks have abruptly raised foreign currency exchange rates. Many of them are trading U.S. dollars at more than 90 rubles, and euros at more than 100. RIA Novosti reports the highest U.S. dollar conversion rate of 105 rubles at Rosbank, which also trades euros as 115 rubles.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:31
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Would this total chaos be a good moment for a Ukrainian push or would it be better to wait and keep seeing how things unfold?
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Jun 24, 2023 10:32
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LochNessMonster posted:Would this total chaos be a good moment for a Ukrainian push or would it be better to wait and keep seeing how things unfold? Who knows? Ukraine's most ideal situation is that more of the army is forced to come back to deal with Wagner (or help them), but if that isn't going to happen, then now is the best time.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:34
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There’s some videos circulating, unverified as far as I can tell, of a Wagner column around Voronezh with various armoures vehicles, including active Pantsir AA vehicles. I’d bet they’re bracing for a hot confrontation with the Air Force soon.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:35
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Ukraine is pushing, I just don't think they're tweeting about it that much right now.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:35
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WaltherFeng posted:I read that Putin's security apparatus outnumbers the regular army by itself 2 to 1 so there's little chance Wagner poses any threat to Putin himself. A lot of those are dressed up cops.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:35
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LochNessMonster posted:Would this total chaos be a good moment for a Ukrainian push or would it be better to wait and keep seeing how things unfold? It's not total chaos yet, just a disruption. There's plenty of Russian troops on the front lines. So maybe a few probing attacks and applied pressure rather than a push. Hoping that a big offensive will catch Putin in a kind of pincer is too much to ask for and a lot of wishful thinking.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:36
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Thanks, that's pretty interesting!
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Jun 24, 2023 10:36
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LochNessMonster posted:Would this total chaos be a good moment for a Ukrainian push or would it be better to wait and keep seeing how things unfold? Everything is happening fast, and there’s going to be a bunch of bullshit flying around. If there’s actual chaos it would be a good time, but you can’t commit to any sort of military op (even at the lowest levels) without at least trying to figure out if it’s for real, or a trap.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:36
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Well. That escalated quickly.  Also: thanks for the Kadyrov update, I was starting to wonder if he was still looking for his brother-in-law because we had heard from all the usual suspects except him.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:36
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WaltherFeng posted:I read that Putin's security apparatus outnumbers the regular army by itself 2 to 1 so there's little chance Wagner poses any threat to Putin himself. I mean, it's not uncommon for armies of actual trained (but not necessarily veteran) soldiers to melt away when it comes to actual combat against a peer-level force. Security apparatuses are good at suppressing civilians but they're far more like cops than soldiers. I don't think it'll come to the point where they're engaged in an actual civil war with Wagner, but if they do then sheer numbers don't mean as much here as it might seem on paper
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Jun 24, 2023 10:38
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Do they even have tanks and IFVs?
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Jun 24, 2023 10:40
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LochNessMonster posted:Would this total chaos be a good moment for a Ukrainian push or would it be better to wait and keep seeing how things unfold? We'd need to know what the actual battlefield looks like right now to answer this, and we don't. Adding some chaos on top of chaos is usually a good idea though. Adding pressure on a system under stress is good if you want it to break.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:41
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https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1672514118467694594?s=20 *Curb Your Enthusiasm theme begins playing*
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Jun 24, 2023 10:42
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Staluigi posted:That one loving tank they had in reserve for the victory day parade gonna be doing serious duty trying to cover all of moscow from an assault There's a company of T-34's and some immobile T-14 roadblocks
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Jun 24, 2023 10:44
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WaltherFeng posted:I read that Putin's security apparatus outnumbers the regular army by itself 2 to 1 so there's little chance Wagner poses any threat to Putin himself. The chance that they will fight each other in open battle is inconcievable . Yet Moscow gopniks with beatiful haircuts to be put against actual troops who seen battle, I will let you draw your own conclusions
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Jun 24, 2023 10:44
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672540481497038849
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Jun 24, 2023 10:44
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 23:20 |
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Dog Friday posted:Apologies if this is an oversimplification of the whole thing, but does this essentially mean a civil war has broken out in Russia? It's a matter of definition. A part of the military trying to oust the autocrat is a coup to me, while a civil war is more like whole factions of society fighting for control of the state.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:49
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