(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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It's a civil war if the coup fails both to succeed and be suppressed.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:51
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This is an unofficial but kinda sorta official military wing coup. It would kind of be like if Blackwater tried to J6 the govt.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:52
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https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200
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Jun 24, 2023 10:52
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Seems like no higher ups are known to have currently thrown in with Prigozhin, right? If I remember right he never had that many friends in government.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:54
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WaltherFeng posted:I read that Putin's security apparatus outnumbers the regular army by itself 2 to 1 so there's little chance Wagner poses any threat to Putin himself. Riot cops can't fight mechanized troops. If true, LMFAO https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672534974468112385
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Jun 24, 2023 10:57
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Google Jeb Bush posted:i can't imagine this was his most survivable option, surely it'd be better to grab some of the wagner treasury and run to some country nobody cares about Doesn't work. There are countries that would snub the west in favor of Russia, and there are countries that would snub Russia in favor of the West, but there's nowhere that will snub both, just to protect a random powerless war criminal. If Russia wants him dead and Ukraine, Netherlands and USA don't stop wanting him captured, this is his only way of staying free.
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Jun 24, 2023 10:58
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1672545199032000514?t=o2YuORqhQez6xCZOqbEX5w&s=19 "Bombing Voronezh" has been a meme for 10 years mocking the love of Russian government to get back at enemies abroad by punishing own population. Welp. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 11:05
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Charlz Guybon posted:Riot cops can't fight mechanized troops. I dont know specifics but Im suprised if Putin's personal security isn't armed with MBTs just in case the army decides to switch sides.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:05
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WaltherFeng posted:I dont know specifics but Im suprised if Putin's personal security isn't armed with MBTs just in case the army decides to switch sides. if they had a bunch of MBTs in Moscow, they would have shown them off at the parade
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Jun 24, 2023 11:07
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672547127317209095
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Jun 24, 2023 11:09
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One of the reasons cited for Russia's poor performance in the war was that Putin kept the army weak to avoid having to deal with a coup. If that's true then his personal forces may not be designed to deal with one.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:09
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Wondering about the rationale of this one --- Wagner logistics? https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672545435037179904?cxt=HHwWgIC94cXNibYuAAAA
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Jun 24, 2023 11:10
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lmao that this is really happening Anyways I'm sure this is the moment when Vova and Shoygu finally reveal the secret good army
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Jun 24, 2023 11:11
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decent summary of stuff that's all been geolocated https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1672544530581561344 noteworthy: 3 columns being tracked, expected to start arriving in moscow this evening (local time, so in a handful of hours)
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Jun 24, 2023 11:12
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https://twitter.com/war__online/status/1672535209038827521?t=Qj0umErlRpPY05-1wCme6w&s=19
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Jun 24, 2023 11:12
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nimby posted:It's a civil war if the coup fails both to succeed and be suppressed. Yeah this is essentially what happened with the Spanish civil war.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:22
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finally a decent map of what we know so far:
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Jun 24, 2023 11:22
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I know there’s been a dozen “what is happening” posts, but help me catch up: this ends if Prigozev is able to depose the head of the Ministry of Defense relatively unopposed, right?
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Jun 24, 2023 11:23
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Lum_ posted:We absolutely do not want Wagner to win. Prigozhin is a psychopathic monster who likes murdering people with sledgehammers. The thought of him in any sort of position of power should send chills down everyone's spine. Prigozhin cannot win. He would have to replace the entire party apparatus loyal to King Put or replace the civilian administration with a military dictatorship. That would only go as well as it did in 1991. The best that we can hope is that this will create chaos, distraction and disunity among Russians that will help Ukraine in achieving a military victory and on maybe longer time scale weaken Putin and anyone associated with him that they get tossed to the garbage bin of history and someone who is not a fascist expansionist rises to power. One can dream!
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Jun 24, 2023 11:23
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OddObserver posted:Wondering about the rationale of this one --- Wagner logistics? I was talking yesterday that I don't seriously see how the Putin regime can come back from things like this, I don't care how rigidly they control the media, people know stuff like this is happening and also that its a result of the fissures in his government, the loss of faith this will result in will be absolutely catastrophic.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:27
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Basically I'm rooting for something like this: With Luigi being I guess Navalny
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Jun 24, 2023 11:27
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Triskelli posted:I know there’s been a dozen “what is happening” posts, but help me catch up: this ends if Prigozev is able to depose the head of the Ministry of Defense relatively unopposed, right? Well Putin (and most Russian officials) came out against it and Prigozhiv vowed that Putin made a big mistake, so I think it will go further than that
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Jun 24, 2023 11:29
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Triskelli posted:I know there’s been a dozen “what is happening” posts, but help me catch up: this ends if Prigozev is able to depose the head of the Ministry of Defense relatively unopposed, right? Putin came out and called him a traitor. This ends when Prigozev is either dead or Putin forgives him. (or we get a new Wagner friendly president)
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Jun 24, 2023 11:29
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I barely beleive any of this. At this rate AMYTHING is possible
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Jun 24, 2023 11:30
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Nenonen posted:Prigozhin cannot win. He would have to replace the entire party apparatus loyal to King Put or replace the civilian administration with a military dictatorship. That would only go as well as it did in 1991. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672551944039145474
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Jun 24, 2023 11:30
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672550877339451392 I guess this answers my question of tanks driving all the way to Moscow. Edit- these might be Russia proper tanks moving for defense. ummel fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 11:34
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Nenonen posted:Prigozhin cannot win. He would have to replace the entire party apparatus loyal to King Put or replace the civilian administration with a military dictatorship. That would only go as well as it did in 1991. Oh everyone will switch sides in an instant. Everyone hates how putin runs this war. The only consolidation around him is fear of defeat. Business is out right prepared to admit defeat as long as sanctions lifted. Ultra right fears defeat and years of humiliation because measures to achieve victory were too tame. Middle are terrified like a herd of sheep and their apple pay doesnt work and they might die Sekenr fucked around with this message at 11:42 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 11:34
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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1672552977582653441
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Jun 24, 2023 11:36
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“Thank you for your service.”
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Jun 24, 2023 11:37
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Nenonen posted:Prigozhin cannot win. He would have to replace the entire party apparatus loyal to King Put or replace the civilian administration with a military dictatorship. That would only go as well as it did in 1991. Maybe. But its the best hand he could play. He was definitely going to be the scapegoat for not taking over Ukraine, so faces prison or death no matter what if he stays where he is. He's not got any private planes to get the gently caress out, so he's taking his shot now at zerg rushing Putin. And seeing how the army collapsed like a flan in a volcano, its probable everything upto Puin's inner circle won't be as tough as first thought. Decades of corruption and apathy have made Russia's bark worse than its actual bite.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:42
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https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1672550303785271296 Ice cold by Takaev here --- he's had Russian help in putting down protests a few years earlier.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:44
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Nenonen posted:Prigozhin cannot win. Echoing the above. I don't know about this. I think it really comes down to the next 72 hours. If he survives a week then every day he survives shows how WEAK the government is, especially after Putin outright has admitted there is an insurrection on television. I think he'll be dead by Monday. But it's clear that Russia is pretty much committed itself on a path of self-destruction and they keep doubling down hoping for different outcomes.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:45
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Lol imagine if last week someone here had claimed that Wagner would enter full insurrection and begin mining a major Russian city before the month was out.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:46
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Tbh, he was in Ukraine, at the front, out of reach for the Russian state apparatus. I think he could have easily smuggled himself out of the region and hosed off to some obscure place in Africa with stationed Wagner "peace keepers" before surfacing at idk the Cayman Islands once the waters calmed down . But obviously that would have been too much of a humiliation.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:46
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Sekenr posted:I barely beleive any of this. At this rate AMYTHING is possible yeah this is my feeling right now. we're fully in uncharted territory. at the moment it certainly looks like wagner is going to make it to moscow relatively unopposed (harassment from aviation has so far been just harassment). truly who the gently caress knows what happens from there
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Jun 24, 2023 11:47
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Nenonen posted:Prigozhin cannot win. He would have to replace the entire party apparatus loyal to King Put or replace the civilian administration with a military dictatorship. That would only go as well as it did in 1991. Counterpoint, yes he can https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672555012336001025
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Jun 24, 2023 11:49
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What a mess.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:49
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This seems super illegal.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:53
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I'm curious how this is seen in China. Does their media even mention the existence of a private military company that recruits murderers? Imagine trying to explain all of this now. I can't imagine the CCP and Xi starting to trust Putin more when he lets this happen either. And to think, just a month back we were watching Russian insurgents attack some border towns and there were questions about could they continue to Moscow...
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Jun 24, 2023 11:53
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Charlz Guybon posted:Counterpoint, yes he can Do you remember how the August 1991 coup ended? I do. He can't win.
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Jun 24, 2023 11:55
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