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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Funky See Funky Do posted:

Wagner do not have an air force.

The way things are going I wouldnt be surprised if thats no longer true and they have air force defections.

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Mikojan
May 12, 2010

zone posted:

Well apparently they now have an air force of sorts because they took over the Millerovo airbase and all the planes that were available there. It's like the bit from Die Hard all over again; "Now I have an air force, HO HO HO"

Unless a whole pilot cadre defects I don't think they'll be able to use them

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




BigglesSWE posted:

I wonder how surprised Putin can be here, I mean realistically the Russian secret police must’ve picked up on any plans that Wagner would be cooking for this?

I think Russia has exposed itself as incredibly incompetent at many levels so obvious things to be on the lookout for being missed by the state apparatus aren't really shocking to me. Prigozhin has been openly been hostile to the government for months now.

Filox
Oct 4, 2014

Grimey Drawer
Just spent two and a half hours catching up. Now I need sleep. Will be hoping Kadyrov and Progozhin are destroying each other on the outskirts of Moscow, while Putin's fleeing with a six month supply of diapers when I wake up.

NoiseAnnoys
May 17, 2010

BigglesSWE posted:

I wonder how surprised Putin can be here, I mean realistically the Russian secret police must’ve picked up on any plans that Wagner would be cooking for this?

it was always a very possible outcome (because historically that's what happens when you hire mercs and treat them badly), but it's also looking like putin is far weaker than anyone really expected, including himself.

again, i root for injury here.

DearSirXNORMadam
Aug 1, 2009
Wagner also marched through the entire UA-war rear echelon on the way to RU, so they may have seized control of the S300s/S400s that are stationed there. If they did, that would give them a loooot of cover to roll wherever they want without having to get bombed to smithereens by strategic bombers or the like.

Funky See Funky Do
Aug 20, 2013
STILL TRYING HARD

Gnoman posted:

The US alone has two airforces more capable than the Russian Air Force even if it was as good as Russia claimed. From what we've actually seen, the US Navy's Army's Airforce could probably handle them.

Yeah but who cares about that? We're talking about Russia and it seems as though now everything Russia has claimed about it's capabilities has been a lie. They have lied their way into the second most powerful state and now everyone knows it was all a lie.

I don't have a point and I don't know.

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




The best outcome is Prigozhin is successful enough he forces Russian soldiers to come back from Ukraine effectively ending the war, and then he loses. That would be ideal. Putin is a piece of poo poo, a coward, and falls down and shits himself.

But I'd choose him over a nazi-adjacent murderous psychopath getting nukes.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

I'm so loving glad we got Finland into NATO fast enough. Everyone who said it was an overreaction and done too hastily was absolutely, 100% wrong. Nobody is gonna listen to these people's opinions for a very long time now.

Gnoman
Feb 12, 2014

Come, all you fair and tender maids
Who flourish in your pri-ime
Beware, take care, keep your garden fair
Let Gnoman steal your thy-y-me
Le-et Gnoman steal your thyme




Funky See Funky Do posted:

Yeah but who cares about that? We're talking about Russia and it seems as though now everything Russia has claimed about it's capabilities has been a lie. They have lied their way into the second most powerful state and now everyone knows it was all a lie.

I don't have a point and I don't know.

Sorry, I mistook your sarcasm for a legitimate claim.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

All the best invasions result in the leader being coup'd right

Funky See Funky Do
Aug 20, 2013
STILL TRYING HARD

Gnoman posted:

Sorry, I mistook your sarcasm for a legitimate claim.

That's alright I'm probably wrong way more than you are. I'm probably wrong about everything I've said today.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Prigozhin release the piss tape

ReelBigLizard
Feb 27, 2003

Fallen Rib
I can't imagine the collective NATO state departments allowing Prigozhin to take any kind of power, even for an interim period...

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher
Wagner really does have an unexpected amount of manpower and heavy firepower for a force that was beaten to hell and back in Bakhmut. Must have been abunch of "defections", hoarding for resources and been planned for some time.

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Barudak posted:

All the best invasions result in the leader being coup'd right

It's how you get the traitorous elements out of society!! This is good for the war in Ukraine actually!!!

Oldsmobile
Jun 13, 2006

If Wagner is 25k strong, there's no way Russia has a stronger force than that defending Moscow. They would have them in Ukraine. The peeps around Moscow are probably just experts on putting down popular uprisings.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

BigglesSWE posted:

I wonder how surprised Putin can be here, I mean realistically the Russian secret police must’ve picked up on any plans that Wagner would be cooking for this?
Prigozhin was extremely openly making GBS threads on Shoigu and Gerasimov and by implication Putin, since he keeps those in power. He'd have to be dumber than Michael Tracy not to think something like this is possible.

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




ReelBigLizard posted:

I can't imagine the collective NATO state departments allowing Prigozhin to take any kind of power, even for an interim period...

The West isn't some powerful monolith. What could they realistically do? There will be no NATO invasion of Russia. The only way you will ever see NATO boots on the ground is the legitimate government of Russia requests it and even then I highly doubt that.

Skippy McPants
Mar 19, 2009

exquisite tea posted:

Isn't Wagner's whole stance in this "we should have murdered the Ukrainians more"?

Correct. Wagner's, or at least Prigozhin's, stance that Russia should commit fully to the war and is wasting blood and treasure on half-measures.

CommissarMega
Nov 18, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER

Nelson Mandingo posted:

It's how you get the traitorous elements out of society!! This is good for the war in Ukraine actually!!!

Makes sense- after all, if Prigozhin takes over Russia, then logically everyone who opposed him is a traitor, and he'd have been retroactively killing traitors even before he came to power! :thunk:

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Every government in Europe currently logged into their Rheinmetall account and hammering refresh on the Leopard 2 order page, hoping to snipe some inventory

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather
What's the most ridiculous outcome you can't fully rule out? I'd say Prigoschin reaches Moscow and Putin feels forced to deploy a tactical nuke. He was pretty adamant that he'd use nukes if a war would force him too...

Oldsmobile
Jun 13, 2006

GABA ghoul posted:

I'm so loving glad we got Finland into NATO fast enough. Everyone who said it was an overreaction and done too hastily was absolutely, 100% wrong. Nobody is gonna listen to these people's opinions for a very long time now.

I have yet to see anything that would change my mind even in the slightest that Finland joining NATO was an excellent idea.

Skippy McPants
Mar 19, 2009

GABA ghoul posted:

Every government in Europe currently logged into their Rheinmetall account and hammering refresh on the Leopard 2 order page, hoping to snipe some inventory

Seriously, defense contractors in the U.S. probably thought they couldn't get more erect until about twelve hours ago.

What a miserable loving time we live in.

Zzulu
May 15, 2009

(▰˘v˘▰)
the next few days will be interesting

Barudak
May 7, 2007

cant cook creole bream posted:

What's the most ridiculous outcome you can't fully rule out? I'd say Prigoschin reaches Moscow and Putin feels forced to deploy a tactical nuke. He was pretty adamant that he'd use nukes if a war would force him too...

Putin appeals directly to Trump who calls him a loser and rebuffs him.

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




cant cook creole bream posted:

What's the most ridiculous outcome you can't fully rule out? I'd say Prigoschin reaches Moscow and Putin feels forced to deploy a tactical nuke. He was pretty adamant that he'd use nukes if a war would force him too...

I don't see nukes happening at all. That doesn't make much sense. You permamently make a region inhabitable and unprofitable. But that definitely is the most ridiculous outcome catagory.

Mine is Prigozhin survives a week. Kadyrov smells blood in the water and joins him to elevate himself. It's a full blown civil war.

Oldsmobile
Jun 13, 2006

cant cook creole bream posted:

What's the most ridiculous outcome you can't fully rule out? I'd say Prigoschin reaches Moscow and Putin feels forced to deploy a tactical nuke. He was pretty adamant that he'd use nukes if a war would force him too...

Nukes are stored in the balls.

Zzulu posted:

the next few days will be interesting

Seems like the trickle of updates is drying up. I guess the internet is down everywhere now.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Oldsmobile posted:

I have yet to see anything that would change my mind even in the slightest that Finland joining NATO was an excellent idea.

Well, lots of Fins won't have to die in a ditch on the outskirts of Helsinki trying to slow down a Russian offensive, so at least for those people it's a net-positive.

MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672551944039145474

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

cant cook creole bream posted:

What's the most ridiculous outcome you can't fully rule out? I'd say Prigoschin reaches Moscow and Putin feels forced to deploy a tactical nuke. He was pretty adamant that he'd use nukes if a war would force him too...

Putin nuking Moscow/Near Moscow? Yeah nah thats not gonna happen

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Putin: "This is not what I meant when I told you to 'seize the capital', and you know it!"

Icochet
Mar 18, 2008

I have a very small TV. Don't make fun of it! Please don't shame it like that~

Grimey Drawer

Oldsmobile posted:

I have yet to see anything that would change my mind even in the slightest that Finland joining NATO was an excellent idea.

*points to everything*

Funky See Funky Do
Aug 20, 2013
STILL TRYING HARD

loving libs

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Dont worry Putin can retreat east to his loyal stronghold of [error]

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Remember the salad days when the worst thing that happened to Russia in its own territory was toy drones crashing into buildings? And people still thought that stuff was crazy? lol

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
I called this in the D&D thread on day 2 of the war when Russia had obviously stalled and all information coming out was just an endless supply of massacred Russian forces.

Driving your entire country into a meatgrinder over a conflict you refuse to admit you've lost for 16 months means something is going to break. If it hadn't been the thug army they supplemented their forces with starting a mutiny it would have been a total collapse of the Russian forces at some point.

I was wrong in that I thought the Russian forces would collapse sooner though. At no point in this war would it have made sense to do what Russia is doing. They didn't prepare for their attack, they didn't change their tactics during 2 months of getting massacred before retreating the first time and spent an additional 14 months repeating this die/retreat cycle over and over.

There is literally no reason to destroy your entire country to not win a war you started for no reason.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Just absolutely speedrunning a total collapse.

It also leaves India without its partner against China so thats, fun.

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Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

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