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fatherboxx)
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If Wagner takes moscow after putin announced his departure to Undisclosed Locations through the standard channels of denying he went anywhere, I'm calling it, that's probably the tipping point that gets most of the deciding powerbase to (at minimum) stay out of the coup's way because they don't want to back the sweaty panicked dying horse And that's what tilts it
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Jun 24, 2023 15:52
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Nuclear Spoon posted:#1 tracked plane on the website lol The plane seems to be landing in Grozny. Weird, as if someone needed to get out of Kharkiv really fast and back to Chechnya...
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Jun 24, 2023 15:52
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The biggest unknown, IMO, is what happens with Ukraine if this coup actually succeeds. The (ostensible) main reason Prigozhin and Wagner are doing this is because they think Russia isn’t going hard enough on Ukraine, right? But at the same time, if there was ever going to be an opportunity for them to withdraw and lick their wounds while still saving face within Russia, it’d be this. gently caress, even if this fails, just the fact that things have gone badly enough for a coup to even be attempted might be a tipping point for public support of the war.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:54
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Staluigi posted:I like how this whole situation has accelerated in "fully unbelievable degrees", where each step up is beyond what you could expect of the degradation of the situation by orders of magnitude that completely redefine the practical or probable limits of what this coup / insurrection / civil conflict can achieve before getting put down It started off for me as "Priggy seems more unhinged than usual today" to "this March of Justice thing is an interesting political move" to "he must mean he's starting some kind of social media campaign or something antagonizing the MoD when he said 'Begin'" to "huh, that convoy they mentioned crossing into Russia does line up with Google Maps" to "no way they'd just take Rostov" to "Moscow is too far away from Rostov, they can't do anything but defend" to "is the Russian Federation going to survive?" This is a whirlwind.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:55
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BigRed0427 posted:I have no doubt that some CIA probably convinced them to do this. And now I'm picturing The Music Man, except selling instruments it's convincing a bunch of pissed off Russians to attack Moscow. The CIA is not all powerful. If the CIA was really this powerful, America would rule the world by now. No other nations governments could stand a loving chance. This is just a greedy goblin man who was about to lose his money and his protection and at threat of liquidation managed to convince his boys who are in a cult of personality to help him undermine the incompetent and bloated Russian leadership. The rewards are great, and the risk is a ignoble death. Which they'd also get that risk if they just stayed in Ukraine.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:55
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Herstory Begins Now posted:in a bizarre twist of fate that no one could have anticipated, wagner was in africa planning and executing multiple coups and I guess they got some ideas who could have anticipated that training an independent military group loyal to an ambitious general/warlord in conducting coups could be a bad idea
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Jun 24, 2023 15:58
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Chalks posted:Looks like there will be at least some impact on the troops currently in Ukraine: Not the only ones abandoning Donbass... https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672590528288792577?t=iQSPcPRrugfdxkjgo2rBDQ&s=19
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Jun 24, 2023 15:58
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Nelson Mandingo posted:The CIA is not all powerful. If the CIA was really this powerful, America would rule the world by now. No other nations governments could stand a loving chance. This is just a greedy goblin man who was about to lose his money and his protection and at threat of liquidation managed to convince his boys who are in a cult of personality to help him undermine the incompetent and bloated Russian leadership. The rewards are great, and the risk is a ignoble death. Which they'd also get that risk if they just stayed in Ukraine. Yeah, also other countries and people have agency. USA is powerful yes, but is not a player in every event that happens in the world.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:01
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Regalingualius posted:
Yeah but that's like that "we're denazifying ukraine" bullshit, it's his papered on story for amassing support against the regime that has been cannonfoddering its own people into a catastrophic embarrassment for over a year now, which gives him a multifaceted appeal for everyone but especially the standing armies that are really tired of being cannonfoddered The real impetus is putin made him enemy of the state while trying to cut him out of his own powerbase leaving him with two options, one of which involved something he spent a lot of time being paid to do in multiple countries (destabilize government and start coups and poo poo) and the other option is roll over and die. Be chose coup Something something coming home to roost etc etc lol
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Jun 24, 2023 16:01
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BigRed0427 posted:I have no doubt that some CIA probably convinced them to do this. And now I'm picturing The Music Man, except selling instruments it's convincing a bunch of pissed off Russians to attack Moscow. Not everything is about America.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:01
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Regalingualius posted:The biggest unknown, IMO, is what happens with Ukraine if this coup actually succeeds. The main reason Prigozhin and Wagner are doing this is the MoD was trying to force Wagner members to sign contracts to effectively bring them under control of the MoD and cut Prigozhin out. My guess is Prigozhin knows that Ukraine is a lost cause. The window to have succeeded was within the first 3 weeks. Now it is just a slow bleed out until the Russian military is annihilated. If he can take over my gut tells me that he would pull out of Ukraine if for no other reason than to consolidate his forces again. The bigger question is who he would ally with. There are serious downsides to pretty much every option. China would take a seriously weakened Russia to the cleaners. It is no secret that they want Eastern Russia under their control and I think they would easily just become a puppet state. Buddying up with the West and the United States means that he would have to do some serious cleaning house and there would be a lot of poo poo eating. I think there would be a non-zero chance that restitution be made to Ukraine for example, granted a lot of that would be taking from the captured oligarch's fortunes likely. Granted we are dealing with a lot of unknowns in general. We haven't see anything like this in modern history.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:08
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So, strategically, what's the play for Ukraine here? Put pressure on to take advantage of the confusion? Keep the frontlines quiet so that the Russians feel confident to withdraw their reserves to deal with the civil war?
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Jun 24, 2023 16:08
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Nelson Mandingo posted:The CIA is not all powerful. If the CIA was really this powerful, America would rule the world by now. No other nations governments could stand a loving chance. This is just a greedy goblin man who was about to lose his money and his protection and at threat of liquidation managed to convince his boys who are in a cult of personality to help him undermine the incompetent and bloated Russian leadership. The rewards are great, and the risk is a ignoble death. Which they'd also get that risk if they just stayed in Ukraine. Yep. The wagernites are fresh off of PTSD hell in bakhmut where they saw horrible attrition rates, a proclaimed lack of support from higher ups, and routinely subjected to abuse including being berated with homophobic slurs and worse for not decapitating or castrating POWs fast enough. The convict army is thoroughly brainwashed into a cult of personality. Whoever wasn't sledgehammered for insubordination has been broken psychologically. I'm not posting this out of any position of sympathy, but this group is likely unable to think for themselves at all anymore.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:09
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Haystack posted:So, strategically, what's the play for Ukraine here? Put pressure on to take advantage of the confusion? Keep the frontlines quiet so that the Russians feel confident to withdraw their reserves to deal with the civil war? They'll probably just continue with their counter offensive as planned and hope this coup attempt ends up weakening the Russian forces in Ukraine.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:10
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Haystack posted:So, strategically, what's the play for Ukraine here? Put pressure on to take advantage of the confusion? Keep the frontlines quiet so that the Russians feel confident to withdraw their reserves to deal with the civil war? Two choices. Push hard for victory or wait and see. Maybe the war ends without needing to spend any more lives? I bet they're not really gonna change plans up until the next few days. Prigozhin could be dead by tomorrow.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:11
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Went to bed not knowing what to expect when I woke up but thinking it would probably be that things had settled down with Wagner camped in Rostov. Actually woke up to them closing in on Moscow and Russian forces blowing up their own oil refineries to deny them to the enemy. Anyway, https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1672619755344207872
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Jun 24, 2023 16:11
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Is this the thread to post bizarre political takes? https://twitter.com/davidhogg111/status/1672623040037892100?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA Hogg as a 90s style pro Russia anti nuclear proliferation guy, huh.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:12
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Haystack posted:So, strategically, what's the play for Ukraine here? Put pressure on to take advantage of the confusion? Keep the frontlines quiet so that the Russians feel confident to withdraw their reserves to deal with the civil war? Hit hard. The Russian supply lines for everything north of Crimea just died. The bridges on the road and rail lines to Moscow are going to be captured by an enemy force who will take anything going south, if they aren't blown first. There will be no more supplies going south. And no more reinforcements. And they need to do it now before Wagnar might lose. The war is not over, but this the beginning of the end. Comstar fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 16:13
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Nelson Mandingo posted:Absolutely. I've repeated this many times but I think it bears repeating. The ideal scenario here is Prigozhin does well enough to force Russia to return it's soldiers from Ukraine, effectively ending the war, and then loses. Putin is a coward, a snake, and a piece of poo poo but the new boss is probably explicitly worse for Russia and the region than the old one. Prigozhin is the face of the alternative now, but I was serious about my finding a snake post. Say Prigozhin manages to take Moscow and effectively unseats Putin (or is enough to de-legitimize him), this does not automatically grant him the reins of power. The country could very well fragment as other players senses weakness and refuses to submit or even openly revolts (ex Chechnya, Georgia, etc). Getting rid of Putin is a stepping stone, even successful military coups can be very short lived. See examples such as the 1936 Iraqi coup.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:14
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khwarezm posted:Like that's literally the closest thing I can think of as a comparison, some Condottieri saying 'gently caress it' and seizing somewhere like Milan in the 15th century because who's going to stop him? It doesn't seem to take much for the modern world to slip away. Wagner was never really a mercenary group, they were always an arm of Russia's foreign policy with a thin veneer of mercenary deniabilty and no clients without the approval of Putin. But that was enough for them to become a militarized force outside of the state bureaucracy, dominated by (execrable) personalty of their leader, fear of punishment and lure of reward instead of any loyalty to the state. But that's enough to let them act like the mercenary army they pretended to be, and now they are off the leash. Even if they are crushed in the next hours they still rebelled, Putin still fled Moscow in fear of them, and no one is going to forget that anytime soon.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:14
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Haystack posted:So, strategically, what's the play for Ukraine here? Put pressure on to take advantage of the confusion? Keep the frontlines quiet so that the Russians feel confident to withdraw their reserves to deal with the civil war? Nobody really has a firm grasp of what their strategy is right now beside reported pressure in the Bakmut direction (there has been little talked about movement along this and the Luhansk axis in the past 3 weeks according Kofman where Wagner reportedly has withdrawn from). Ukraine has been quite mum. What it should be doing is very speculative. I know enough about this conflict to say I haven't a clue what they should do.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:15
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ummel posted:Yep. The wagernites are fresh off of PTSD hell in bakhmut where they saw horrible attrition rates, a proclaimed lack of support from higher ups, and routinely subjected to abuse including being berated with homophobic slurs and worse for not decapitating or castrating POWs fast enough. The convict army is thoroughly brainwashed into a cult of personality. Whoever wasn't sledgehammered for insubordination has been broken psychologically. I'm not posting this out of any position of sympathy, but this group is likely unable to think for themselves at all anymore. To be fair this seems like a much better idea for your average Wagnerite than grinding it out on Bakhmut for another few months.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:16
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MeinPanzer posted:Lol imagine if last week someone here had claimed that Wagner would enter full insurrection and begin mining a major Russian city before the month was out. I know. Right now, I wish I had a time machine so I could go back to March 2023 just to be all like... "Man, Wagner are really upset. I'll Toxx myself, but I bet that they will go full on Insurrection and be marching on Russia within 6 months. Oh and I bet a bunch of billionaires will also Darwin themselves in a cut price submarine.  'Just to get mega props in the thread right now. And then immediately realize I should have just given myself winning Lottery numbers instead.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:18
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Comstar posted:Hit hard. The Russian supply lines for everything north of Crimea just died. The bridges on the road and rail lines to Moscow are going to be captured by an enemy force who will take anything going south, if they aren't blown first. There will be no more supplies going south. And no more reinforcements. Eh, no. Wagner aren't delaying airstrikes or supplies out of Rostov yet, and if Prigozhin dies on this charge in Moscow, then the front will (mostly) return to as before, depending on how paranoidly Putin purges. If Prigozhin successfully rolls into Moscow, nobody knows, because that is so wild it's hard to say what will happen afterwards. If you're Ukraine, you continue as normal and wait to see if Russian forces start leaving the trenches for home/civil war.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:18
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Keisari posted:Yeah, also other countries and people have agency. USA is powerful yes, but is not a player in every event that happens in the world. The CIA or other operational intelligence organizations lay the path through information , misinformation, or influence. Direct action, including direct payouts or agents/assets on the ground is unnecessary and dangerous politically. The goal is for foreign principals to take action that is productive to the goals of US/NATO without realizing that they are furthering the goals of the US/NATO. Who knows what the gently caress is going on or what level of interaction intelligence agencies have, but I would say that the war in UKR and now this coup/rebellion or whatever we want to call it furthers the geopolitical goals of the US in the best way possible- bleed a major geopolitical antagonist dry leading up to possible regime change. Any insight into what role American influence has lead to this outcome will only be known in 50 years or possibly never, and certainly won’t be figured out - either refuted or confirmed- on this website.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:19
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"What is Ukraine doing now?" https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353?s=20
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Jun 24, 2023 16:21
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Didn't Prigozhin recently put out a video/statement blaming the whole Ukraine mess on rich interests wanting to pillage the place? I could see him doubling down on that as a reason to pull out of the area and consolidate power.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:21
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Eh, no. Wagner aren't delaying airstrikes or supplies out of Rostov yet, and if Prigozhin dies on this charge in Moscow, then the front will (mostly) return to as before, depending on how paranoidly Putin purges. If Prigozhin successfully rolls into Moscow, nobody knows, because that is so wild it's hard to say what will happen afterwards. Prigozhin has made a big show of not affecting the war effort, but he's marching on Moscow and Russia has made clear that there will be no deal. As soon as any significant fighting happens, Wagner is going to have to use every available resource to hurt the Russian military. Prigozhin doesn't die if Ukraine makes advances in Ukraine, but he sure will if the Russian army takes over their positions in Russia.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:23
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Regalingualius posted:The biggest unknown, IMO, is what happens with Ukraine if this coup actually succeeds. no, Prigozhin has also said stuff about how the ukraine invasion was based on a lie it was probably as sincere as anything else he says, but he has certainly laid the groundwork to withdraw from ukraine if he takes over. doesn't mean he will, and he is very ostentatiously trying to not be accused of damaging the war effort for now. but it muddles the waters on what would happen if he wins.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:24
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Haystack posted:So, strategically, what's the play for Ukraine here? Put pressure on to take advantage of the confusion? Keep the frontlines quiet so that the Russians feel confident to withdraw their reserves to deal with the civil war? The fact Prigojin f-ed off to Moskow means Kadirov's puppets can 'retake' Rostov and Voronej within the day, so no need to pull forces now from Ukraine to do that. Russians will not pull back and will keep fighting until there's some clarity on who supports Prigojin politically and if his forces survive the night. I'm expecting that highway will get bombed heavily tonight. EDIT: aka there's no play for Ukraine here until things go one way or another in Russia... Romanian TV says Russian are negotiating with Wagner atm Brain65 fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 16:24
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Comstar posted:Hit hard. The Russian supply lines for everything north of Crimea just died. The bridges on the road and rail lines to Moscow are going to be captured by an enemy force who will take anything going south, if they aren't blown first. There will be no more supplies going south. And no more reinforcements. And they need to do it now before Wagnar might lose. I don’t think you can be so certain about this. Prigozhin’s whole angle is “the war isn’t being prosecuted correctly” so part of the takeover of SMD was that he stated “everyone stay at your jobs and keep the SMO running” In practice that remains to be seen and it’s a rapidly developing situation but I think Wagner’s ability to make friends among other Russian military units would be degraded by interfering with the SMO and its supplies. Those friends are more important than whatever supplies are coming south - they can just loot stocks on the way north, and they’re already the biggest, baddest and most heavily armed formation in central Russia at this point so they don’t need to gear up. They have to pull off 3 days to Kyiv, but for real, in order for this to work, so burdening themselves with a long logistical tail is not going to be that helpful and will take time. Plus, the Russian units on the front line won’t run out of supplies immediately, and an army on the defensive in entrenched positions can conserve materiel in a way that a maneuvering force cannot. It will take time for any supply disruptions to be felt.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:24
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Eh, no. Wagner aren't delaying airstrikes or supplies out of Rostov yet, and if Prigozhin dies on this charge in Moscow, then the front will (mostly) return to as before, depending on how paranoidly Putin purges. If Prigozhin successfully rolls into Moscow, nobody knows, because that is so wild it's hard to say what will happen afterwards. The Russian military leadership in Rostov are now prisoners of Wagnar. There's no one in command now. Prigozhin's going to be too busy going north and the local Wagnar's are going to be fighting south. All of Russian aviation is either paralyzed or otherwise engaged. They just lose one of their 4 or so command planes. The leadership in Moscow is fleeing to St Petersburg or is too busy to command anywhere else. Now will be the time to strike.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:25
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A few thoughts from a random vetgoon on a dead comedy forum:
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Wake up, CNN! It's time for Decision 2023! Waiting for David Wasserman's Twitter post, "I've seen enough:" max seddon on Twitter posted:For those of you new to this media environment. The main sources of info are an army that lies about everything; a warlord who owns an infamous troll factory and lied about it for years; and the Kremlin. And Russia destroyed the media, so there aren't any good independent sources WaltherFeng posted:I read that Putin's security apparatus outnumbers the regular army by itself 2 to 1 so there's little chance Wagner poses any threat to Putin himself. Yes, though a fair amount of it got chewed up in early 2022. Russia sent a decent number of Rogsvardia and FSB units into Ukraine, and those groups suffered high casualties in the Battle of Kyiv. Those units in southern Ukraine did better, and of course the regime probably kept quite a bit back in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Ginger Beer Belly posted:Cry havoc and let slip the hot dogs of war.  LochNessMonster posted:Would this total chaos be a good moment for a Ukrainian push or would it be better to wait and keep seeing how things unfold? "It depends." Personally, I'd be taking some risks to further disrupt Russian logistics in the south. I think Russian artillery tends to keep ~3 days of ammunition on hand. If Russian artillery begins to ration heavily, that will give Ukraine a real advantage, even if locally. Also, now may be a good time to push psyops to get units to surrender. Every bit helps. Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Seems like no higher ups are known to have currently thrown in with Prigozhin, right? If I remember right he never had that many friends in government. When he needed ammunition he had to resort to yelling on Telegram. That should tell you how much access he had to decision makers. What remains to be seen is how many senior leaders sit on the sidelines before committing to Putin or to Prigozhin. While more than a link would be appreciated, it's pretty funny to see a bunch of oligarchs' private jets fleeing Moscow. The Late Lord
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Jun 24, 2023 16:26
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The Question IRL posted:I know. Right now, I wish I had a time machine so I could go back to March 2023 just to be all like... Well I have been half expecting something like this to happen at some point. I didn’t expect it to be Wagner or so soon. The situation in Ukraine is untenable. Putin is stuck between a rock and a hard place there so inevitably someone was going to rise up to topple him and pivot. It makes all the sense in the world how Prigozhin has positioned himself to do it but I just didn’t expect it so soon. Once the Fall came I expected discontent within the military ranks and public to reach a critical mass to allow this to happen.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:29
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Ynglaur posted:A few thoughts from a random vetgoon on a dead comedy forum: it's actually a lot easier than this when a general marches on the capital and alters the government, that general is now in charge and anyone who is in a titularly superior position is about to have an accidental fall out a window/onto a sword/into a sewage pit. there is no situation putin gives in to wagner where he lives out the year. that isn't a guarantee he lives out the year anyway, one of the loyal generals may then make a bid for the top job after shutting this down now that it's been shown to be possible
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Jun 24, 2023 16:29
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 https://twitter.com/HumansNoContext/status/1672593156150292484
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Jun 24, 2023 16:30
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Does anyone know if Prigozhin is with the convoy, or still in Rostov?
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Jun 24, 2023 16:31
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Shifty Pony posted:Didn't Prigozhin recently put out a video/statement blaming the whole Ukraine mess on rich interests wanting to pillage the place? I could see him doubling down on that as a reason to pull out of the area and consolidate power.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:32
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Comstar posted:Now will be the time to strike. Everything's always so binary with you dude. Ukraine probably has to just keep at it with the probing attacks to see where resupply and reinforcement is weakest, they gon go in when that bears fruit
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Jun 24, 2023 16:32
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Keep in mind Ukraine was saying that some poo poo was going to go down for a couple months now. They've had time to monitor this situation and plan for it.
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Jun 24, 2023 16:35
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