(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Looks like the Ukrainian counteroffensive is going really badly It's not their fault they're being upstaged so badly
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Jun 24, 2023 17:39
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Few more pictures: https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1672645185648439298 Also posting this because lol: https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1672645203704926210 e: ALSO also: https://twitter.com/realGulDukat/status/1672645512854421504
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Jun 24, 2023 17:39
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TheRat posted:Reported by whom? Russian telegram it seems https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672642236012544000
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Jun 24, 2023 17:41
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Interesting if true... https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1672630622999781378?t=A5qJOFV38GxKyxXwdX0Uxg&s=19
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Jun 24, 2023 17:42
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Moon Slayer posted:Few more pictures: Let's be fair here, Laura Loomer is to right Twitter what MTG is to the Republican house. Just the dumbest idiot in a sea of stupid who has never had a take grounded in anything resembling reality.
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Jun 24, 2023 17:43
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Please let me know if me just posting my twitter feed as it updates is becoming too much, it's just a lot of stuff is happening and a lot of people are making Good Posts about it. https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1672645634313056265
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Jun 24, 2023 17:43
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Honest question but what does negotiation even mean at this point? It seems like once you've gone this far you either are going full coup or you're going out a window at the first chance. What does deescalation look like at this point if we have any idea?
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Jun 24, 2023 17:45
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Not knowing the full history of the fallout between previous Wagner/MoD friendly fire and flare-up fights, are things like the copter losses enough to make MoD not do a calmer stand-down, even if ordered? You have to figure if even one instance of battalion level combat breaks out every position Russia holds gets very wild card very quickly, right? ImpAtom posted:Honest question but what does negotiation even mean at this point? It seems like once you've gone this far you either are going full coup or you're going out a window at the first chance. What does deescalation look like at this point if we have any idea? Yeah that's kind of what I mean, actions that are unpalatable to regular forces are building up, where the hell does that go.
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Jun 24, 2023 17:46
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ImpAtom posted:Honest question but what does negotiation even mean at this point? It seems like once you've gone this far you either are going full coup or you're going out a window at the first chance. What does deescalation look like at this point if we have any idea? It seems like an absurd idea. What terms could they offer? Putin agrees to fire the heads of the MoD and then what? Putin rules by fear and this would make him look incredibly weak. He'd basically be offering himself up as a puppet president.
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Jun 24, 2023 17:47
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1672644650056728577 Wow, 3 ewar mi-8's, they have like 20 of them or something and either 1 or 2 got Patrioted a month or so back...
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Jun 24, 2023 17:48
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Yeah you'd think destroying a bunch of helicopters and a plane would be a point of no return. Man what a Saturday
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Jun 24, 2023 17:48
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The best "terms" I can think of are paying off one or more Wagner guys or RUAF / FSB moles within Wagner (if they have any, I'd hope for Putin he does...) to murk Prigozhin and subsequently tell the rest of Wagner they get amnesty if they gently caress off EDIT: alternatively, some pencil pushers in the Kremlin see which way the wind is blowing and agree terms with Wagner that include booting Putin loyalists out of windows. I'm not sure Prigozhin wants to sit on the throne himself, he might be content with a deal that allows him to return to the front to warcrime Ukrainians more freely with a sack full of cash and the MOD in shambles Deltasquid fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 17:50
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ImpAtom posted:Honest question but what does negotiation even mean at this point? It seems like once you've gone this far you either are going full coup or you're going out a window at the first chance. What does deescalation look like at this point if we have any idea? https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672510543247155202 ^ This is where the rhetoric is and where negotiations start. Descalations looks like a change of president at the least.
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Jun 24, 2023 17:52
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Moon Slayer posted:Please let me know if me just posting my twitter feed as it updates is becoming too much, it's just a lot of stuff is happening and a lot of people are making Good Posts about it. If you're doing meme/rapid twitter reacts posting, the GBS thread is probably a better place for it.
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Jun 24, 2023 17:53
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ImpAtom posted:Honest question but what does negotiation even mean at this point? It seems like once you've gone this far you either are going full coup or you're going out a window at the first chance. What does deescalation look like at this point if we have any idea?
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Jun 24, 2023 17:58
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I have heard a lot of times that Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro near Kherson
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Jun 24, 2023 18:00
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Lukashenko claims he's brokered peace between Wagner and RAF.quote:Evgeny Prigozhin has accepted President Alexander Lukashenko's proposal to stop the movement of Wagner's armed men on Russian territory and take further steps to de-escalate tensions.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:13
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RockWhisperer posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672510543247155202 thats not a deescalation. Do you really think Putin cares about a russia that hes not in charge of?
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Jun 24, 2023 18:16
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Paladinus posted:Lukashenko claims he's brokered peace between Wagner and RAF. I have absolutely no idea how to take this statement.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:16
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OddObserver posted:Not really. There is evidence that they destroyed a grand total of 1 truck, which may have been civilian. They also lost at least 3 helicopters, 2 of which are rare EWAR, and some sort of fixed-wing transport plane. Two EWAR helicopters were among the three? Is that even remotely confirmed? If so it's a pretty significant loss for Russia. They don't have very many, and they're apparently very effective against Ukrainian drones and communications. dennyk posted:Not just "some sort of transport plane"; reportedly an IL-22M airborne command post (tail number RF-75917). Does that fill a similar role to AWACS? BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:i think kadyrov has already revealed himself thoroughly to be an incompetent who cannot accomplish anything outside of chechnya despite his repeated attempts at national and international power I disagree. I think Kadyrov has demonstrated his ability to accomplish exactly what he wishes, which is to maintain a life of luxury for him and his family, his grip on power in Chechnya, and to never be seen losing a fight. He uses military force very effectively to accomplish his political ends. OddObserver posted:There also seem to be picture of what seems to be a crashed Ka-52 in the Voronezh area... Better and better for Ukraine. Those helicopters have proven very effective in southern Ukraine, but Russia only had ~130 of them as of early 2022, and they've lost several dozen already. LifeSunDeath posted:i'm actually really surprised RU has any helicopters left at this point. Russian combat aviation has done a pretty good job of keeping their assets from being destroyed in large numbers. They've certainly taken heavy losses, but across the campaign they seem to react to changing circumstances more quickly than the ground forces have. (This is a broad generalization, of course.) pumpinglemma posted:My guess is that the point isn't negotiations between Prigozhin and Putin but negotiations between Prigozhin and the oligarchs. Not the oligarchs. The heads of the various military and security services. The oligarchs were proven quite toothless in 2022.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:20
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US officials sticking around town: https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1672654724531728386 Bremen posted:I have absolutely no idea how to take this statement. Same, but for this one as well: https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1672649987526737922
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Jun 24, 2023 18:21
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so only that helicopter crew died so far?
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Jun 24, 2023 18:23
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*edit* fake news, tweet deleted anyway
Chalks fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 18:29
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per RIA Novosti: quote:❗️The full statement of Lukashenka's press service on the situation around Wagner PMC:
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Jun 24, 2023 18:29
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Chalks posted:poo poo's developing fast. Fake tg account. Prigozhin confirms in his latest audio message that Wagner are turning back and moving towards their camps to avoid bloodshed. He doesn't mention Lukashenko, but it's safe to assume he was involved at least. https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1303
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Jun 24, 2023 18:29
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frajaq posted:so only that helicopter crew died so far? I think only Ka-52 has ejection capabilities, so that feels unlikely given all the other destroyed helicopters? I suppose some might be damaged-enough-to-land but unlikely to ever fly again, but that seems unlikel Anyway: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672657227847483392
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Jun 24, 2023 18:30
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Was Bakhmut less about Ukraine and instead more about diverting supplies for this coup?
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Jun 24, 2023 18:31
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Paladinus posted:Lukashenko claims he's brokered peace between Wagner and RAF. https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0083530/mediaviewer/rm870446849 Moon Slayer posted:US officials sticking around town: This is probably the closest we have been to a cool zone scenario after the missile crisis. This is only the beginning of what happens next.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:32
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Accepting any "deal" at this stage from Putin would surely be suicide for Prigozhin?
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Jun 24, 2023 18:32
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OddObserver posted:I think only Ka-52 has ejection capabilities, so that feels unlikely given all the other destroyed helicopters? I suppose some might be damaged-enough-to-land but unlikely to ever fly again, but that seems unlikel It's insane that people don't even check what account posted that, lmao. You scroll up and there are no posts older than today. See my post above for actual news.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:32
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672658620671041540 Easy come easy go
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Jun 24, 2023 18:32
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Dog Friday posted:Accepting any "deal" at this stage from Putin would surely be suicide for Prigozhin? Hard to imagine otherwise.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:33
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Iconic. No notes.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:34
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Dog Friday posted:Accepting any "deal" at this stage from Putin would surely be suicide for Prigozhin? there is no world where both of them coexist freely in russia after this.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:35
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Paladinus posted:It's insane that people don't even check what account posted that, lmao. You scroll up and there are no posts older than today. See my post above for actual news. Oh, do you think Ollie Carroll got punked by that fake Prigozhin?
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Jun 24, 2023 18:35
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Yeah lots of conflicting reports and confusion atm
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Jun 24, 2023 18:35
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I think a statement straight from Priggy that it’s over is fairly definitive
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Jun 24, 2023 18:36
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Wtf is happening.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:38
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This is probably the strangest twist on an already very strange 24 hours.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:38
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So what the hell is the state of things now? Is Prigozhin untouchable? Is he going to get assassinated as soon as his forces withdraw? What an insane thing to have happened. Putin's so utterly undermined by this, I can't believe he's backed down. A game of chicken where both sides have blinked.
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Jun 24, 2023 18:39
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