(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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parthenocarpy posted:Do you realize there are people in America, right now, Millions of them, who have for years insisted that there are two presidents and nothing of consequence has really happened from that mass delusion? People wake up today thinking Trump is still president. People tomorrow will wake up thinking the Wagner CEO is president of Russia. And..... THEY ARE DELUSIONAL I missed the bit where Trump forced Biden to give him and all Jan 6th rioters a universal pardon, and install Kari Lake as Secretary of State.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:44
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parthenocarpy posted:They both came out better Putin's position today absolutely is not better than it was on Friday morning, before this whole nonsense kicked off, what are you on about
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Jun 24, 2023 19:44
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Der Kyhe posted:So basically what happened was that Wagner got into shooting distance from Moscow and Putin's government surrendered. Yup. Long and short Russia is even weaker than it was global and locally 24 hours prior
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Jun 24, 2023 19:44
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AtomikKrab posted:So Prig deposes Shoigu, gets to be shadow president and goes to Africa where he can ensure his overall safety while warlording? meanwhile the replacement for Shoigu has to manage the mess left behind and Putin.... drinks himself to death? Counterpoint: Putin is playing for time and the only thing Prigo had going for him was speed. https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672659660027961345 This could still go either way.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:44
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parthenocarpy posted:I didn't compare the events, what Trump event are you talking about? I didn't mention any, only the delusion of people thinking who is president and who isn't. you literally said there are people in America who think there are two presidents and they are delusional, then drew a direct comparison to what the tweet is saying it was a pretty stupid thing to say, as others pointed out. just take the L
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Jun 24, 2023 19:44
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Deltasquid posted:Look I'm not American so idk what to tell you about this mass delusion stuff, but to my knowledge Trump did not actually march a brigade on Washington DC and obtain concessions from Biden. If he had, those people might be right that Trump was the actual guy in charge of America! I'm not talking about concessions, just mass delusion. People wake up thinking all sorts of stupid things and thats supposed to mean something? Like, millions more Russians hate Putin tomorrow and he remains in charge. That happens to Biden on a daily basis. You guys are assigning wayyyyy too much value to being humiliated
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Jun 24, 2023 19:45
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parthenocarpy posted:I'm not talking about concessions, just mass delusion. People wake up thinking all sorts of stupid things and thats supposed to mean something? Like, millions more Russians hate Putin tomorrow and he remains in charge. That happens to Biden on a daily basis. You guys are assigning wayyyyy too much value to being humiliated If you have to remove your loyalists at the behest of a local warlord, presumably to be replaced with people loyal to that guy, you are not in fact in charge even if you are legally the president.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:46
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I'm reading all these things in this thread about Ukraine and Russia and to be honest I'm finding it all really confusing. Really hoping an American can come into this thread and explain the situation using examples from America and how that's completely relevant to what's happening in Eastern Europe tia. *Good now thanks
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Jun 24, 2023 19:46
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:im not sure how you could walk away from this and not think that prigozhin has emerged significantly more powerful and putin significantly weakened. A dude just straight up declared war on his own country and wasn't just not defeated but was rewarded for it! If you're someone who rules by fear this is absolutely catastrophic. On the contrary. "NATO neo-cons are gnashing their teeth that there is no civil war, Victoria Neuland's plans are again dashed on Russian rocks, and Russia once again proves that a free and democratic country is resilient. You see, we are much freer than the West, and because of this, these sorts of things happen every once in awhile but the supreme authorities always right the ship. This is the benefit of our greater freedom and the small price we have to pay for our non-gay liberty."
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Jun 24, 2023 19:46
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Deltasquid posted:Putin's position today absolutely is not better than it was on Friday morning, before this whole nonsense kicked off, what are you on about Problem solved, nothing to see here. Everybody's happy.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:46
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parthenocarpy posted:I'm not talking about concessions, just mass delusion. People wake up thinking all sorts of stupid things and thats supposed to mean something? Like, millions more Russians hate Putin tomorrow and he remains in charge. That happens to Biden on a daily basis. You guys are assigning wayyyyy too much value to being humiliated counterpoint: i don't think you understand how strongmen like Putin maintain power, and how much that power is undermined as a result of direct and outright humiliations like this
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Jun 24, 2023 19:46
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RDM posted:Those people think the war problem is that it's not total or genocidal enough Prigozin's latest statements have been along the lines of "this war was launched to favor corrupt elites"--e.g.: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4064431-wagner-chief-says-russias-war-in-ukraine-intended-to-benefit-elites-accuses-moscow-of-lying/ Which sounds like the kind of thing someone might say if they were on the side of ending the war rather than continuing it. Don't get me wrong, Prigozin is not a nice guy and I'm sure he would have no qualms about genociding any number of people, but if he saw more benefit for himself in siding with an anti-war contingent he may be willing to go where the wind blows. I don't know, just trying to be hopeful. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 19:46
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Oldsmobile posted:Counterpoint: Putin is playing for time and the only thing Prigo had going for him was speed. Must be a Mistranslation, I assume it says they will be "dissolved"
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Jun 24, 2023 19:46
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TGLT posted:If you have to remove your loyalists at the behest of a local warlord, presumably to be replaced with people loyal to that guy, you are not in fact in charge even if you are legally the president. Again, you are running some playbook where arbitrary things like "he's not really in charge because factor XYZ" like what does that mean? What are the practical effects from this? I don't see it as anything other than a silly insult
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Jun 24, 2023 19:47
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Oldsmobile posted:Counterpoint: Putin is playing for time and the only thing Prigo had going for him was speed. Putin's power was in his total control of the government and his strongman image. He just lost that. Even if he kills Prig short term, the image is broken.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:47
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:im not sure how you could walk away from this and not think that prigozhin has emerged significantly more powerful and putin significantly weakened. A dude just straight up declared war on his own country and wasn't just not defeated but was rewarded for it! If you're someone who rules by fear this is absolutely catastrophic. Honestly i think Prig got played and Putin will eventually muster his forces behind the scenes and crush him without honoring their deal. It will tarnish his reputation and such, and the result will be Russia descending further into being a tinpot dictatorship with no institutions ruled by a delusional and paranoid despot, but i don't think Prigozhin won. Though obviously it's a coin toss whether I'm right it wrong or maybe Moscow gets attacked by martians.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:47
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:counterpoint: i don't think you understand how strongmen like Putin maintain power, and how much that power is undermined as a result of direct and outright humiliations like this I imagine that quashing existential threats is part of it. It looked like he was facing a serious one four hours ago and now he isn't. I guess call that bottom G, but its survivalism 101. Looks like he still gets to call himself president too.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:48
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parthenocarpy posted:They both came out better Twenty four hours ago Putin was not facing an existential threat. One of your strongest subordinates turning into an existential threat and then brokering a hasty truce with concessions to get them to back off is not "coming out better" in any reality. Putin is old and a popular figurehead and he might still die in bed while nominally the president, but he's not going to get to call all the shots anymore.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:49
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parthenocarpy posted:I imagine that quashing existential threats is part of it. It looked like he was facing a serious one four hours ago and now he isn't. I guess call that bottom G, but its survivalism 101. Looks like he still gets to call himself president too. read a god drat history book lol
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Jun 24, 2023 19:49
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deported to Canada posted:I'm reading all these things in this thread about Ukraine and Russia and to be honest I'm finding it all really confusing. Putin thought he had the biggest pickup truck and controlled all the hamburgers but it turns out he's now in a hamburger sharing agreement with a guy who just installed a new lift kit. I hope this helps.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:49
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parthenocarpy posted:Again, you are running some playbook where arbitrary things like "he's not really in charge because factor XYZ" like what does that mean? What are the practical effects from this? I don't see it as anything other than a silly insult Having to surrender the ability to appoint the guy in charge of the military is not an arbitrary thing, it is like the root of all political power.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:49
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The Russian military was too woke, it needed a literal Nazi einsatzgruppen leader to save it from the ~~~mind virus~~~
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Jun 24, 2023 19:49
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This is how the reddit mods should have handled those API changes
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Jun 24, 2023 19:51
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbeC2w-uIEU
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Jun 24, 2023 19:52
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Flavahbeast posted:Are any concessions confirmed yet? Wagner guys seem pretty pissed at Prigozhin now, I think it's early to say he'll come out ahead in all this I wouldn't be surprised if it was heavily hinted to the rank and file that looting Moscow was on the cards. Now they're looking at potentially being thrown back into the meat grinder after having definitively embarrased and demonstrated their untrustworthiness to the regular military. I can understand them being slightly upset. The other people I can see being pissed are the Chechens who missed out on their chance to loot a Russian city because they were stuck in a traffic jam.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:53
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TGLT posted:Having to surrender the ability to appoint the guy in charge of the military is not an arbitrary thing, it is like the root of all political power. If he just lost the root of his political power, how do you reconcile that with the fact that he's still running Russia? Like, I get it, you guys really want this to discredit Putin and make him look like a fool. I want the guy gone. This isn't him going away, this is a mending of a really lovely situation they had and they go back to war with Ukraine. You guys get that, right? Like, Russia reuniting is a real possibility, they could come out stronger from this, not weaker, and I don't know why so many of you feel that is a certainty. I just don't get it.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:53
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nobody in russia really likes putin. But the average russian doesn't care and is generally apolitical. The elites who are political go along with him for three reasons: because he enriches them massively they're scared shitless of him and he keeps power divided enough that theres noone strong enough to replace him. The enriches them part went away after the ukranian invasion and every oligarch got slapped with an enormous amount of sanctions along with the russian economy itself. But putin still had the fear and the fact that they could always be poisoned or thrown from a window. Even in places like Salisbury England they could be killed so the only true protection was not criticizing him and going along with what he wants. That went away now after a dude didn't just openly criticize putin but straight up threatened with 25,000 soldiers his actual government. And putin didn't punish him. He gave him what he wanted. That takes away the fear AND the fact that there is no obvious challenger or alternative source of power. There's not really any reason to really obey putin anymore except that you actually like the guy. Yes hes still in charge but all the support beams that his political power is based on have been revealed as missing or rotten. Its only a matter of time before the bridge collapses.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:54
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parthenocarpy posted:I don't understand why anyone has deeply held reservations about anything happening at this point there's an axiom in formal logic theory that says "if you can show a logical contradiction, you can derive literally anything. you can derive that that the world is made of blue cheese. that's logically sound, given the assumptions that led to your contradiction." it's one of the hardest things for formal proof learners to apply in many cases because it functionally means if you assume that 2 + 2 = 5, then the earth is flat. but 2 + 2 doesn't equal 5! well yes, that's why the earth isn't flat. we have been operating under a lot of assumptions about russia and putin over the last 10 years that, in the last 10 hours, have been fully and roundly contradicted. we have, in fact, been assuming that 2 + 2 = 5. but it doesn't. it's always equaled 4. so yeah. the earth is flat at this point. you can have your suspicions and that's fine. but if you're feeling any certainty i feel like you're missing a major point. Coolguye fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 19:54
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Happy page 500 guys =)
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Jun 24, 2023 19:54
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deported to Canada posted:Really hoping an American can come into this thread and explain the situation using examples from America
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Jun 24, 2023 19:54
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parthenocarpy posted:Again, you are running some playbook where arbitrary things like "he's not really in charge because factor XYZ" like what does that mean? What are the practical effects from this? I don't see it as anything other than a silly insult parthenocarpy posted:I imagine that quashing existential threats is part of it. It looked like he was facing a serious one four hours ago and now he isn't. I guess call that bottom G, but its survivalism 101. Looks like he still gets to call himself president too. He didn't quash poo poo, he conceded. The practical effects of this is that, at a superficial level, if you want things done in Russia, you clear it with Prigozhin and his cronies instead of Putin. Do you think Putin will act the same way as before when he knows that Wagner (or their new MOD buddies) can just walk into Moscow unopposed? Do you think he'll veto laws Prigozhin likes, or push laws he dislikes? It also means that, more fundamentally, now other branches of government (eg people who aren't on board with a turbofascist warlord calling the shots and potentially decreeing mass mobilization) might consider bumping off Putin to oppose this from happening, or might rock the boat on things that Prizoghin and his buddies don't particularly care much about. Putin doesn't have Wagner nor the MOD under his control any more, so if you're a guy like e.g. Kadyrov you might think it's time to extract some concessions of your own.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:55
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Wrong thread. Glory to Ukraine!
Sesq fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 19:57
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Coolguye posted:so yeah. the earth is flat at this point. you can have your suspicions and that's fine. but if you're feeling any certainty i feel like you're missing a major point. The entire point I've been trying to make is no one should be certain about anything. When I said last night that this could happen, I said very clearly that it wasn't even likely or even something I'd be hopeful to see. I'm not sure where you got the fact I was feeling certain about anything at all other than resuming the Ukraine war really sucks
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Jun 24, 2023 19:57
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hmm can't imagine why
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Jun 24, 2023 19:57
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parthenocarpy posted:If he just lost the root of his political power, how do you reconcile that with the fact that he's still running Russia? Like, I get it, you guys really want this to discredit Putin and make him look like a fool. I want the guy gone. This isn't him going away, this is a mending of a really lovely situation they had and they go back to war with Ukraine. You guys get that, right? Like, Russia reuniting is a real possibility, they could come out stronger from this, not weaker, and I don't know why so many of you feel that is a certainty. I just don't get it. Nations collapse on a time scale of years, not hours. If this all ends up being true then now if this warlord - who has already demonstrated a willingness to fight the government - decides he has some new issue with some new policy well the guy in the MoD is presumably his bud so his next insurrection is gonna go even smoother. Laws and titles don't mean poo poo if your military turns on or abandons you.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:57
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parthenocarpy posted:If he just lost the root of his political power, how do you reconcile that with the fact that he's still running Russia? Nominally he's not running Russia in the same way he was 24 hours ago - 24 hours ago he got to pick who was in charge of all the people with guns, and now it seems he doesn't get to do that Which is a pretty big problem for him tbh
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Jun 24, 2023 19:58
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Sally Sprodgkin posted:Nominally he's not running Russia in the same way he was 24 hours ago - 24 hours ago he got to pick who was in charge of all the people with guns, and now it seems he doesn't get to do that Let's see if the deal actually happens first.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:58
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parthenocarpy posted:The entire point I've been trying to make is no one should be certain about anything. When I said last night that this could happen, I said very clearly that it wasn't even likely or even something I'd be hopeful to see. I'm not sure where you got the fact I was feeling certain about anything at all other than resuming the Ukraine war really sucks i was agreeing with you homie stand down
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Jun 24, 2023 19:59
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parthenocarpy posted:Again, you are running some playbook where arbitrary things like "he's not really in charge because factor XYZ" like what does that mean? What are the practical effects from this? I don't see it as anything other than a silly insult The practical effect is that the next time a Russian with independent power, especially military, is looking at a potential conflict with Putin, they have far more confidence in fighting back. Coups are now on the table. You can do them and survive, and there won't even be instant resistance. Contrast with the failed coup in Turkey: they didn't get enough military support to even take on the palace guards, and the populace were solidly against them. It was such a boondoggle that it reinforced coups being a terrible idea there. parthenocarpy posted:The entire point I've been trying to make is no one should be certain about anything. Well sure, we don't even know what the negotiation even is or whether Prig is actually getting strong concessions. A lot of this is if the early reporting that MOD people will be replaced or whatever.
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Jun 24, 2023 19:59
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Any chance if Shoigu genuinely feels threatened he tries something?
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Jun 24, 2023 20:02
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