(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Yes let’s take a military company owning coup artist and put him in Belarus, this should be fine.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:11
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 11:54 |
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If Wagner goes to Belarus and Gerasimov gets replaced, it's not a great outcome for Ukraine. Gerasimov is an incompetent field commander, and replacing him risks someone competent taking his stead. Lukashenko getting a few thousand mercenaries to prop up his security apparatus keeps Belarus firmly in Russia's camp as well.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:13
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So, Putin has just hosed Prigozhin, right? Just made promises and then refused to deliver the moment the boot was off his neck? Wagner's still getting folded into MOD, Prigozhin gets "exiled" to Belarus where he can be kept on a short leash, Shoigu and Gerasimov stay?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:14
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Smeef posted:That sounds like it was already planned and some sort of compromise for Wagner joining MOD. Maybe the mutiny was just an elaborate attempt to get They shot down 7 aircraft and killed 13 crew, it wasn't a trick https://t.me/milinfolive/102704  Burning aircraft falling from the sky https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12905
Enjoy fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 22:15
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Yeah I think the dead pilots and shot down aircraft and highways being torn up to slow the progress to moscow means this wasn't just for show. That or it was a really convincing show.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:17
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Stanislavski was also a famous Russian figure, after all.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:18
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The incredible damage to Putins image would lead me to believe this was not a show...
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Jun 24, 2023 22:20
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Dog Friday posted:The incredible damage to Putins image would lead me to believe this was not a show... to be fair, it could have been a really bad show
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Jun 24, 2023 22:24
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Dog Friday posted:The incredible damage to Putins image would lead me to believe this was not a show... Your fist to my balls style, how'd you like that? I am a geopolitics master cia runs up all like "stop, stop, please don't coup him, we trained him wrong as a joke" like i just dont get how this is supposed to have been a staged event unless we're talking like a deep humiliation kink, why even entertain the notion
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Jun 24, 2023 22:26
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Dog Friday posted:The incredible damage to Putins image would lead me to believe this was not a show... They put it up to get foreign currency from CIA. They could start doing these five days a week and fix the deficit!
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Jun 24, 2023 22:26
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so did putin send him to belarus to keep batka in check?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:28
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Oh and they exploded their own oil depot so prevent Wagner getting it.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:28
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Downgrading my opinion that it is all theater. It's soap opera.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:28
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I had to skip some pages but did we at least get some calls for west to start arming Wagner? E: Not here, but out there d64 fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 22:29
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Dog Friday posted:The incredible damage to Putins image would lead me to believe this was not a show... Yes. The damage was already done when Wagner marched unopposed to within shooting distance of Moscow. I think Putin just took, or ordered his underlings to take, the deal from which he can bounce back. Right now he only needs to allow Prigozhin to leave and maybe switch people around in MoD while starting preparations for a massive purge. The other option would have been that Moscow is partially occupied and burns, and the war effort in Ukraine is a guaranteed total loss. 7 helicopters and 1 mobile command center aircraft is a rounding error in this war anyway so they were considered collateral damage. The Wagner troops already launched a successful mutiny that got at least some traction, and he already ran away from Moscow after publicly calling wagnerites traitors, so the political damage was already done. So he set up Lukashenka to do the part where his cabinet capitulates to the Wagner demands in exchange of cease fire and letting Prigozhin to go because that was the best way to get on top of things.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:30
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Huh.cant cook creole bream posted:Nothing actually happened yet. But they are escalating things at an increasing pace. It's not like they can just go "Nevermind, all that. I'm sorry let's be friends again." at this point. I guess you can do that, even after a huge amount of further escalation? Man I don't get Russia.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:32
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cant cook creole bream posted:Huh. Can't old friends have disagreements and then make up?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:47
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Does this count as billable hours for Wagner's employees?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:52
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Hypothetical, Wagner kept marching on Moscow and Prigozhin kicks his feet up on Putin's desk in the kremlin, what then?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:58
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Despite a boring end, I'm real proud of Luka for coming through as the brilliant and magnanimous statesman we all knew he was
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Jun 24, 2023 22:59
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Ra Ra Rasputin posted:Hypothetical, Wagner kept marching on Moscow and Prigozhin kicks his feet up on Putin's desk in the kremlin, what then? Either the army and security forces rally to him and he assumes control or they won't and at some point in time he gets shot in the head.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:03
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So, if I'm reading things here correctly, the deal is (more-or-less) that Prigozhin and his co-mutineers get exiled, leaving the country by way of Belarus? I suppose that... kind of makes sense, if you think about Russia as being a quasi-feudal sort of state. I wonder how much of their equipment they'll be able to take with them, and how many people will go overall.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:08
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More and more I think this stunt was all about money. Russian MoD probably didn't pay the group or withheld some payments because "it took you way too long to clear Bakhmut", subsequently wanted to force Wagner to fold into Army; Prigojin starts s#it to get paid, gets to 140km of Moskow with a full S300 in tow, money changes hands all of a sudden, mercenary group turns back and goes to Belorussia while their 'new recruits they got out of prison' go fight for Russia under new contracts (contracting out of prison being made legal today as well). Putin stays silent the whole day because he knows what motivates Prigojin ($$$) and sees this as a good opportunity to get the upper-hand on a bunch of generals and also see which other generals would betray him.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:18
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Seized by the irrestiable desire to becomes the Trotsky of Russian fascism.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:23
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Despite a boring end, I'm real proud of Luka for coming through as the brilliant and magnanimous statesman we all knew he was You don't get used car salesman genetics like that without inherting the deals chromosome. Obligitory "my name is luka/I ended the civil war"
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Jun 24, 2023 23:24
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All of this is still too weird for me to just go "oh it's over and going to go like this" until a good wait.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:27
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I don’t understand how Prigozhin survives next week.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:35
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I'm glad Priggy backed down, because it looked like he was going to get somewhere and ruin by early prediction that he doesn't have a chance.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:40
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Do we have any update on the Ukrainian Counter offensive? So far I’m getting the impression that other than a few villages and captured trenches it’s failing and taking significant losses because they lack any air support.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:43
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Grape posted:All of this is still too weird for me to just go "oh it's over and going to go like this" until a good wait. Now that I've had some time to settle down (bubble baths are great btw), it hit me; the guys that participated in shooting down a jet, towing a tank towards Moscow, or any other high profile role that could be discovered through investigation cannot feel reassured about their safety from this settlement. Prigs betrayed a lot of his own men by not going all the way. Edit: I don't think he's going to be able to sleep soundly at night is what I'm trying to say. I don't think this is a stable situation like I similarly was leading myself onto. RockWhisperer fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 23:46
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Kraftwerk posted:Do we have any update on the Ukrainian Counter offensive? So far I’m getting the impression that other than a few villages and captured trenches it’s failing and taking significant losses because they lack any air support. What losses are you talking about besides that one incident from a few weeks ago?
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Jun 24, 2023 23:46
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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672737137169506305 Local cops are not being greeted as liberators. Wagner also with some big ISIS energy in technicals and shooting into the air.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:48
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Chalks posted:What losses are you talking about besides that one incident from a few weeks ago? That’s the one I’m referring to. It’s sorta like touching a very hot object that singes your fingers and now you aren’t really doing anything because there’s no way to break the Russian lines without your own air assets and a SEAD capability Ukraine doesn’t have. I don’t see what cards are left to play until the F-16s show up and even then there won’t be enough of them to achieve Ukraine’s goals.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:49
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Kraftwerk posted:Do we have any update on the Ukrainian Counter offensive? So far I’m getting the impression that other than a few villages and captured trenches it’s failing and taking significant losses because they lack any air support. No it seems Wagner has taken more Russian territory than Ukraine in the last 48.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:52
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Kraftwerk posted:That’s the one I’m referring to. It’s sorta like touching a very hot object that singes your fingers and now you aren’t really doing anything because there’s no way to break the Russian lines without your own air assets and a SEAD capability Ukraine doesn’t have. I don’t see what cards are left to play until the F-16s show up and even then there won’t be enough of them to achieve Ukraine’s goals. Both sides are trading small gains and losses. Rybar reported that the Ukrainians were within 1.5 km of Robotyne, a village that is basically at the end of the buffer zone before the first main fortification line in the Orkhiv sector.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:52
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One tactical action is not necessarily indicative of a multi pronged attack in which I'm prong has a 15km width. Go listen to Michael Koffman. He does an excellent job describing the fallacy that anchoring effects can have on assessments and analysis.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:54
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Kraftwerk posted:That’s the one I’m referring to. It’s sorta like touching a very hot object that singes your fingers and now you aren’t really doing anything because there’s no way to break the Russian lines without your own air assets and a SEAD capability Ukraine doesn’t have. I don’t see what cards are left to play until the F-16s show up and even then there won’t be enough of them to achieve Ukraine’s goals. Ukraine launched an offensive with thousands of armoured vehicles and one of the Ukrainian columns lost 15 of them. Russia had a mutiny of tens of thousands of soldiers who almost marched all the way to Moscow after Prigozhin said the Russian forces were getting absolutely destroyed and the authorities were covering up the numbers of casualties. It seems pretty clear which side is getting the upper hand here. It seems like the only conceivable way you'd still be bringing up those Bradleys is if you genuinely expected Ukraine to suffer zero casualties when attacking prepared Russian fortifications? Sure the news has been rather drowned out today but only yesterday we got word that Ukraine has pushed Russia back beyond the feb 2022 front line in one place. Chalks fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 23:57
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Kraftwerk posted:That’s the one I’m referring to. It’s sorta like touching a very hot object that singes your fingers and now you aren’t really doing anything because there’s no way to break the Russian lines without your own air assets and a SEAD capability Ukraine doesn’t have. I don’t see what cards are left to play until the F-16s show up and even then there won’t be enough of them to achieve Ukraine’s goals. It's not really that they can't do anything, but it takes time in order to minimize losses. Supposedly they're making slow but steady progress. It will take weeks to see who is the first to run out of steam.
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Jun 25, 2023 00:02
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Kraftwerk posted:That’s the one I’m referring to. I'd say the fact that the Russians are still trotting around those images means that not much has happened since beyond a lot of artillery dueling and some probing attacks. Realistically it could be some time before they choose to actually commit to a main attack. They're limited by available forces but this is no urgent need to get the campaign over with soon, so it could last for months.
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Jun 25, 2023 00:08
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 11:54 |
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Did those Russian helicopters getting shot down by Wagner last night not actually happen, or are they just not going to face any consequences for that?
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Jun 25, 2023 00:11
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