(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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the doubt and the confusion are also characteristic of the kornilov thing, which will always be shrouded in confusion and mystery because the serious revolution kicked off 6 weeks after so it may not be over yet
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Jun 24, 2023 22:33
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| # ? May 31, 2024 02:29 |
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Counted posted:If it's true Prighozin and Wagner received cheers on the way out and people internal to the MoD stepped aside to allow this coup to escalate due to sympathies with Wagner, isn't that a very strong sign there's an undercurrent of sympathy for the kind of far-right Nazi-esque militarism Prighozin espouses in the general populace and military brass? Well your first mistake is looking at all of this through an extremely online twitter colored lens.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:33
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Tunicate posted:I had a win-win victory last night. I was in a dark alley and a mugger pulled a gun and said 'your money or your life', and I totally won by giving him the money so he'd go away. I mean hypothetically speaking you were in the muggers sphere of influence so it's impossible to say whether it was a theft or taxes
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Jun 24, 2023 22:34
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How does it weaken a leader to have one of their most trusted subordinates march in the capital and down half a dozen high value military aircraft before dictating the terms under which they'll reenlist? What you're seeing is true strength. A few more abortive coups and Russia will be ready to topple NATO.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:35
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HappyHippo posted:Yes, his position is improved from 12 hours ago. It's worse than it was 36 hours ago. When people say "this is bad for Putin" they're referring to the second part. Even so called military experts in the media debates don’t follow this or agree here at all because while many of Russias operative Problems are still there ,one of the biggest problems they had till the end of June where the Paramilitaries had to obey MOd orders by a forced opt in ..is now gone. The loudest voice and insubordinate leader now turned 180. Unless Prigoschin gets a rank and official mandate within the MOD, Putins pain in the rear end and biggest threat is now removed. So, please consider an interpretation that this whole chaos may exactly help Putin in the aftermath of stopping a revolt and shutting down his biggest threat. For now.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:37
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Lifespan posted:Is it them supporting Nazi poo poo or an indication they hate their leadership and were happy to see someone stand up to them (and potentially "get away with it")? That's a fair point, I guess we have to wait for more details on what exactly happened here. Still, a group like Wagner looking strong in the eyes of the public doesn't always historically go well and certainly has created ideological ripples before.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:38
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Sucrose posted:Lol so how does he not get murdered in the next 6 months? If this is really basically a surrender for him, does he really think Putin is going to forgive and forget? Which is why this still doesn't make sense to me. It makes me think they offered to either kill him today or let him walk away with his money knowing he has a good chance of "falling out a window" soon. That would mean Prigster just made an impossibly dumb move?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:39
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ngl, curious where russian state media winds up going with this
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Jun 24, 2023 22:39
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Google Jeb Bush posted:ngl, curious where russian state media winds up going with this I expect they are, too
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Jun 24, 2023 22:40
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Google Jeb Bush posted:ngl, curious where russian state media winds up going with this “Russia is more united than ever before!”
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Jun 24, 2023 22:41
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the holy poopacy posted:How does it weaken a leader to have one of their most trusted subordinates march in the capital and down half a dozen high value military aircraft before dictating the terms under which they'll reenlist? What you're seeing is true strength. A few more abortive coups and Russia will be ready to topple NATO. To be fair with the options that seemed to be forming before the Luka deal I would say they probably managed to find the least destructive and disruptive solution to this whole affair (I would say we saw definitive proof that Russia just straight up crushing the Wagnerites wasn't going to happen). Civil war and a government collapse was averted, though it is also important to note I think that most probably didn't consider those options to have even been on the table before this all went down. This is a serious blow to Russia and Putin to be sure, but it could have been a whole lot worse for them.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:41
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:What the gently caress happened overnight?? It's over? Wagnerites got close to Moscow and Putin's cabinet capitulated to Prigos primary demands. Prigozhin got himself and Wagnerites a "get out of jail card" and agreed to move to Belarus for now. It remains to be seen if anything happens with Russian MoD, and how large the purges will be when Putin starts to consolidate his power again after this egg to his face.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:43
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So did the Kreml give up Sergej Schoigu and Waleri Gerassimow or did they not?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:43
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Mr.PayDay posted:So did the Kreml give up Sergej Schoigu and Waleri Gerassimow or did they not? nobody knoooooows possibly including putin, prigo, and those two
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Jun 24, 2023 22:43
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prigozhin is the money and pr guy. there will prolly be high commissions for wagner peeps but not prigozhin himself. but hes still real important to the organization because wagners recruitment advantage compared to regular army is reliable high pay
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Jun 24, 2023 22:44
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Jun 24, 2023 22:45
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Randarkman posted:To be fair with the options that seemed to be forming before the Luka deal I would say they probably managed to find the least destructive and disruptive solution to this whole affair (I would say we saw definitive proof that Russia just straight up crushing the Wagnerites wasn't going to happen). Civil war and a government collapse was averted, though it is also important to note I think that most probably didn't consider those options to have even been on the table before this all went down. This is a serious blow to Russia and Putin to be sure, but it could have been a whole lot worse for them. Oh sure. This is far from the most catastrophic option for Putin or Russia and that he managed to pull it off is probably quite lucky for Putin, but that doesn't make it a win. That it got as far as it did demonstrates he's nowhere near as strong as anyone thought last week (including, most likely, both Putin and Prigozhin).
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Jun 24, 2023 22:45
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There must be some element we're not seeing, like some other power center that has a play
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Jun 24, 2023 22:46
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Grape posted:Well your first mistake is looking at all of this through an extremely online twitter colored lens. I'm actually very, very confused by the extremely online Twitter takes I'm seeing and don't see what's happening through the same lens as they are, that's why I'm confused by some of the takes on there. I guess the ultimate lesson here, as always, is to just not go on Twitter or most of the internet when things are happening and wait for things to play out. Oh, and scroll past bad takes instead of even giving them a chance by trying to give them more thought than the original posters did. Edit: In other words, I agree being Extremely Online is bad - back to lurking/touching grass and realizing I have literally no relevance to what's happening, I'm going to go and focus on my projects instead of trying to read tea leaves outdoors in a thunderstorm. Counted fucked around with this message at 22:55 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 22:47
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the holy poopacy posted:Oh sure. This is far from the most catastrophic option for Putin or Russia and that he managed to pull it off is probably quite lucky for Putin, but that doesn't make it a win. That it got as far as it did demonstrates he's nowhere near as strong as anyone thought last week (including, most likely, both Putin and Prigozhin). this is the Cool Runnings ending for Putin. He managed not to break his neck after his bobsled fell apart but he's not actually a contender for a medal by any stretch of the imagination.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:47
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I bet any regular army guys who did throw in with the coup feel pretty dumb right now “I’m back guys! I was just kiddin’ around heh”
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Jun 24, 2023 22:48
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Bone Crimes posted:There must be some element we're not seeing, like some other power center that has a play Maybe Rosvgardia wasn't what they all hoped it was, or was found to be one of those "lists of made up names for the colonels to collect pay checks from the government"-rackets? Or that they found out that those men dedicated to beating the elderly and generally oppressing people actually really, really, suck at stopping an actual military unit with heavy gear. You mobilize 50 000 guys and barely 5 000 shows up, and most of them just look away while Wagner just drives through their checkpoints.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:51
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Bone Crimes posted:There must be some element we're not seeing, like some other power center that has a play Or everyone involved is just really loving stupid.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:55
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Der Kyhe posted:Maybe Rosvgardia wasn't what they all hoped it was, or was found to be one of those "lists of made up names for the colonels to collect pay checks from the government"-rackets? Or that they found out that those men dedicated to beating the elderly and generally oppressing people actually really, really, suck at stopping an actual military unit with heavy gear. That could actually be a plausible explanation if they've been cooking the books on membership Dead Souls style.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:55
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Der Kyhe posted:Maybe Rosvgardia wasn't what they all hoped it was, or was found to be one of those "lists of made up names for the colonels to collect pay checks from the government"-rackets? Or that they found out that those men dedicated to beating the elderly and generally oppressing people actually really, really, suck at stopping an actual military unit with heavy gear. putin buckled at the prospect of what, 25,000 dudes without air superiority could do against him on his home turf, what would he do against 75,000 with better equipment with air and sea superiority
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Jun 24, 2023 22:57
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Counted posted:I'm actually very, very confused by the extremely online Twitter takes I'm seeing and don't see what's happening through the same lens as they are, that's why I'm confused by some of the takes on there. You're projecting your/our very political aware page refreshing mania to the average Russian, that they are extremely well read on Wagner as an ideological group. Something I would hesitate to even project onto the average Wagner SOLDIER. Why for instance would you think the average Russian would even understand the namesake connection? Would you expect that of the average anyone?
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Jun 24, 2023 22:58
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I mean yeah lol the rosgvardia were basically young men or gangsters collecting a no show job payment. 50,000 probably wasn't even enough to stop Wagner in an elongated siege. Like Wagner's pretty terrifying in terms of a fighting force and has a bit of dare I say fanatical supporters? I would think they would close the gap and also overwhelm the very under geared rosgvardia Like Russian knows NATO/US is not going to allow Ukraine to encroach onto Russian territory. So they keep it extremely undermanned and literally looted all the gear to go to Ukraine out of sheer desperately.
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Jun 24, 2023 22:59
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Mr.PayDay posted:How does it weaken him if the most battle ready units that could have just kept on marching into the core of Russia made a 180° turn while beeing an unstoppable force , shooting down air vehicles and their leader suddenly going “I got a call, we have an agreement, good luck and good bye”. You're making it sound like Putin managed to WOLOLOL Zelensky instead of barely avoiding his own army invading the capital. Mr.PayDay posted:Even so called military experts in the media debates don’t follow this or agree here at all because while many of Russias operative Problems are still there ,one of the biggest problems they had till the end of June where the Paramilitaries had to obey MOd orders by a forced opt in ..is now gone. The loudest voice and insubordinate leader now turned 180. Is everyone so used to russia being such a poo poo-show that anything but the worst possible outcome is actually great for them now? Imagine Blackwater running around Iraq, being ordered to do something, and instead Eric Price drives tanks within 100 miles of DC before being offered a deal by W. "This is actually good for Bush!" It was never supposed to get that way in the first place! You don't let your mercenaries dictate anything to you. What should've happened is that Prigozhin peaceful let Wagner forces be absorbed into the MoD, because that's what working chain of command and law and order demand.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:02
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Victis posted:I do love how all the rhetoric thrown around about treachery and betrayal by Kadyrov and other hardliners will just get swept under the rug (in order for a deal to work) If I had to guess, it's probably not actually this complicated; they're just out of moves and flying seat-of-the-pants by what media-and-various-discord-servers generate for opinions and "hot ideas." External opinion of Russia is dead in the water, but they can at least put on a show for their own internal media's sake. Prigozhin is probably fine. Putin is pretty much out. Shoigu may as well be Duma leader.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:04
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So did Wagner actually get shelled and attacked by the MoD or was that a bunch of Prigo fake news to rile up the masses?
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Jun 24, 2023 23:05
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At this point does it really matter either way
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Jun 24, 2023 23:07
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Mr.PayDay posted:Even so called military experts in the media debates don’t follow this or agree here at all because while many of Russias operative Problems are still there ,one of the biggest problems they had till the end of June where the Paramilitaries had to obey MOd orders by a forced opt in ..is now gone. The loudest voice and insubordinate leader now turned 180. It helps Putin in much the same way that cutting off your foot helps you get rid of an ingrown toenail. Yes, you've solved your immediate problem, but now you have a whole bunch of new ones to deal with. Other goons have explained it much better and in mich more detail, but Putin's once-infallible image as a ruthless strongman dictator has been irreparably damaged, both internationally and (much more crucially) at home. Strong, ruthless leaders don't come to terms with rebellious elements. They wipe them out or at least severely punish them, as an example to others who might also be tempted to go against the leader. Putin obviously couldn't do that for reasons that should be plainly obvious at the moment; so in hopes of buying himself some time, he made concessions to the hot dog guy in charge of Wagner. But other people who are anti-Putin aren't going to see him as a genius negotiator and leader, or at least not publicly. His position is much weaker today than it was two days ago, this shouldn't even be up for debate. This isn't about "Putin got humiliated" or "Putin got embarrassed". This is "Putin showed he was willing to cave in to the demands of someone he perceived as being a direct threat to him". That's not exactly consistent with the image he had of being a ruthless strongman. In the eyes of his political rivals, he showed weakness. And many of them are likely smelling blood in the water right about now. This shouldn't be that difficult to understand, and yet here we are.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:08
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Cartoon Man posted:So did Wagner actually get shelled and attacked by the MoD or was that a bunch of Prigo fake news to rile up the masses? The fact that Prigozhin didn't show any corpses of his men makes me think it's fake news, since he's been notoriously inclined to do that in the past, but  There were also claims from Ukrainian telegram of major infighting between Wagner and the regular Russian army near Bakhmut right before all this kicked off yesterday, but again no photo evidence
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Jun 24, 2023 23:10
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mobby_6kl posted:Wagner was going to be folded into the MoD. Best case for Putin, that still happens, but they lost 6 helicopters and a plane and destroyed highways in Moscow. This is the biggest question for me right now. Does Prig keep his army or not? I guess we'll find out
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Jun 24, 2023 23:11
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Mr.PayDay posted:The day started with debates all over social media if Putin survives the next 24 hours and how Wagner Group will take over Moscow. This thread here made us 9 feet tall because of the layers of popcorn many here felt to eat. Good for Putin: - Squashed a very serious appearing coup attempt in less than a day without extreme measures. - Eliminated the resistance to incorporating Wagner troops into MOD system, leading to unified control. - Credible rival banished to puppet state. - Lukashenko gets a reputational boost, strengthening puppet state. Bad for Putin: - Everyone in the world is now in complete understanding that Russia is a dumpster fire of a cluster gently caress incapable of protecting its own borders. - Wagner were the only competent Russian strategists and fighters in Ukraine. Now the MOD chucklefucks are running the whole show. - Coup support among the people doesn’t just actually melt away, people have seen with their own eyes you can just roll up on Moscow and trigger a Brown Pants Alert with minimal effort.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:13
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greatBigJerk posted:Or everyone involved is just really loving stupid. this could be it
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Jun 24, 2023 23:13
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so what's stopping any oligarch/commander to just getting some guys together to dress up like soldiers and telling putin to give them money or they take shoigu on a trip to belize?
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Jun 24, 2023 23:14
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Negostrike posted:Does anyone else remember about a goon who supposedly worked in foreign serivce or something like that and had hot dogs in Putin's Palace in his presence (and very likely Prigozhin's)? I saw that post in the early 2010s in a thread about meeting famous people. Probably bullshit but I sure wanted to know more about it in the remote possibility it's true. I’m many pages behind so sorry if this had been answered. Yes- the guy accompanied some higher ups, had dinner with Russian leaders including Putin who loves hot dogs. Duck and hot dogs were served. The guy said to his boss that the duck was dry, Putin saw the conversation, asked him to repeat it and laughed when he heard the comment and said get that man another hot dog. I don’t know why I remember so many details and I’m sure some are off but the story stuck with me.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:14
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https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1672729116343259139 Almost 250k clown emojis. Must be some kind of record.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:16
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| # ? May 31, 2024 02:29 |
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Sydney Bottocks posted:, but Putin's once-infallible image as a ruthless strongman dictator has been irreparably damaged, both internationally and (much more crucially) at home. Yes, we all agree here. We can read since years how weak Putin is. So when does that weak Putin guy stop this murderous war? Because all that wall text does not exactly show how and when “Russia” will stop this invasion? Putin got lucky today, and let’s agree how he even got more weak that before, now what? The only real military visible threat and movement we witnessed today against Putin collapsed. Maybe our concept of weak and strong we discuss here disconnects with the reality.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:17
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