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Saukkis posted:Putin is supposedly in Saint Petersburg, and the western border must be one of the regions that still have intact and functional military units standing.
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Jun 25, 2023 13:22
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Tunicate posted:mod knew Internet VFW > Ukraine Thread: mod knew
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Jun 25, 2023 14:20
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MoD didn't know
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Jun 25, 2023 14:22
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Putin knew at least 24 hrs ahead though. Why tf didnt he do anything?
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Jun 25, 2023 15:35
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What if it was all just a honeypot
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Jun 25, 2023 15:43
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moon demon posted:What if it was all just a honeypot that makes the most sense to me but requires assuming competence plus the damage to Putin's image seems not worth the tradeoff. Autocratic power is just like wile e coyote's levitation ability, it stops working as soon as you look down.
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Jun 25, 2023 15:51
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Putin threatened to release his piss tape
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Jun 25, 2023 16:09
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Kith posted:well poo poo, you nailed it. tell me your desires, friend goon. either here or PM  to good use aiding the people of Ukraine.
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Jun 25, 2023 16:11
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moon demon posted:What if it was all just a honeypot Someone sent me this 
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Jun 25, 2023 16:58
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General Battuta posted:Someone sent me this lmao been enjoying the series btw
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Jun 25, 2023 17:10
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dennyk posted:Sorry, the "marine mammals collectively rising up and attacking humanity" box has already been checked this year. You'll need to come up with some other utterly implausible yet somehow inevitable scenario. How about an uprising of refugee extra-terrestrial shape shifters in SW Russia?
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Jun 25, 2023 17:11
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Bored As gently caress posted:Putin knew at least 24 hrs ahead though. Why tf didnt he do anything?
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Jun 25, 2023 18:14
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This is the most Clancy like ending to Act 1. This isn't done, and I have no idea what is a realistic next part. No actors in the situation have a positive ending or major upper hand. Putin came out looking worse- having to bomb a strategic oil reserve to stop a marauding Mercenary force building an Army like Hannibal in Italy, leaving Moscow, and having your Golden Boy War Crime Force turn on you all don't bode well for long term health when you've spent your life creating strongman and warlords, all with just enough power to stop each other, and be a threat to you. The armor is no longer shining and impervious. Wagner dude, if he survives a year, will be a surprise to me. Best outcome for everyone would be to give him a feifdom like that Chechen rear end in a top hat, and keep him at arms length and fist grip.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:26
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bulletsponge13 posted:This is the most Clancy like ending to Act 1. This isn't done, and I have no idea what is a realistic next part. I’m not trying to be a contrarian. I’m just admittedly having a hard time to see the downside or at least the really negative outcomes for Putin that others seem to see. And I accept that means I'm the idiot but I'm curious to know why. “Putin came out looking worse” To who? Was anyone of any significance at all surprised at his vulnerability? He left Moscow. Ok I’m not sure that means as much as it may seem. If the leader of a country in under threat you leave. That’s SOP. Yes Wagner/Prigozhin was the “Golden Boy War Crime Force”. If the “Golden Boy War Crime Force” turns on you it’s not surprising. It’s the trade off of having a “Golden Boy War Crime Force”. They’re a deniable wildcard. They’re criminals not patriots. They’ll be painted as such. They were a tool of the state. Prigozhin had the ability to be an upstart because he and Wagner were considered outsiders. Yes, overtime, Russian/Putin relied too much on them. “The armor is no longer shining and impervious” Who, of importance, thought this? The average Russian may have thought of Putin as an untouchable leader but shich actors who have any real power and knowledge are really shocked by this? Maybe because Prigozhin had chances to be insolent and over step his bounds more times than would be expected. But who didn’t grasp that Wagner was an independent army who could express some violence back on Putin. If one were to expect a threat to Putin who wouldn’t not put Wagner at the top of the list. “Wagner dude, if he survives a year, will be a surprise to me.” Agreed. Is that a slight against Putin? Putin was able, mostly by luck, to sort one of his biggest military threats. Prigozhin could very well drink some tea that doesn’t agree with him and die a horrible death. Prigozhin threw a tantrum and while yes there was some conflict and deaths nothing that will play well in any media. There was no mass conflict. No one (who matters) is painting this as Russians against Russians. It’s Prigozhin against Putin. And for everyone involved, it seems sorted. In a week will any of this have mattered? RoyKeen fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 19:04
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RoyKeen posted:
"I don't need a ride, I need ammunition."
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Jun 25, 2023 19:09
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moscow isn't meant to be under threat unless, like, a billion things have gone wrong
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Jun 25, 2023 19:12
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Herstory Begins Now posted:moscow isn't meant to be under threat unless, like, a billion things have gone wrong Nor should Putin be fleeing from it to St Petersburg/whatever place near there he went to.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:21
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It proves that any aspiring thug with some mass of support can push Putin around to the point of affecting outcomes at the highest levels of government and get away with it. It tells his keys to power that maybe he’s not the only game in town. It tells people that the populace isn’t going to stick their necks out for Putin. It proves to the people that think they’re his long-standing friends that he’ll chuck them under the buss when pressed by some upstart.
Oscar Wilde Bunch fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 19:29
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RoyKeen posted:I’m not trying to be a contrarian. I’m just admittedly having a hard time to see the downside or at least the really negative outcomes for Putin that others seem to see. And I accept that means I'm the idiot but I'm curious to know why. Discussion is the reason for the thread, and I ain't the gospel expert. Lol Authoritarian governments typically often fall after events like this without outside support because Putin looks vulnerable. For the first time, he looks weak. Often, once that vulnerability is exposed, it gets exploited. Putin now had to worry further about other people in similar positions getting similar ideas. He knows this wasn't just single decision made in the moment. He knows he had defectors, and that Wagner forces had support not only civilian support but military leaders. Putin has maintained power by vying strong men against each other, and now they have no reason to not buck the system for more power. Putin get caught off guard looks super bad for him, and his intelligence apparatus. This whole event demonstrated what an utter shitshow the Putin regime security apparatus is. If Putin doesn't visibly punish everyone involved- even just token poo poo that he pardons- his thrown is cracked. Prigozhin in exhale doesn't solve the problems inherent in the event. The primary expeditionary force of Russian foreign policy just invaded Russia and got close enough to Moscow for Putin to authorize a scorched earth tactic and for him to flee Moscow- something I don't recall Stalin doing, but could be wrong. It wouldn't matter if he hadn't tried to lie and got exposed that he was leaving. This is a bigger deal that isn't over, and while I'm probably wrong, this is the first domino that will lead to Putin losing power. Maybe by vote, by force, or by death, but this was a major issue he can't hide. They were building fighting positions in the capital, something not done since Uncle Joe was deleting friends from his scrapbooks. The civilians know an armed coup took place. They watched T90s take a Russian city without a fight. This isn't them hiding the numbers killed, or lying about progress- there is no way for them to hide what happened. Unless Putin does something to consolidate and control power, he has lost a bunch. He bombed his own bases. He negotiated, which implies he either can't stop them, or is unwilling- which can be viewed as weakness. He didn't punish those involved. In every category, he came out on the losing end of the bargain. Just my view, worth what you paid for.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:33
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RoyKeen posted:I’m not trying to be a contrarian. I’m just admittedly having a hard time to see the downside or at least the really negative outcomes for Putin that others seem to see. And I accept that means I'm the idiot but I'm curious to know why. I agree that there's some overly deterministic claims going on (Putin is certainly not doomed), but you're completely dismissing the idea that the opinion of the Russian population matters. A huge portion of them get their news from state TV that has been able to ignore most of the problems until now. They suddenly got a crash course in reality.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:39
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EasilyConfused posted:I agree that there's some overly deterministic claims going on (Putin is certainly not doomed), but you're completely dismissing the idea that the opinion of the Russian population matters. A huge portion of them get their news from state TV that has been able to ignore most of the problems until now. They suddenly got a crash course in reality. Russian popular opinion doesn't matter until it suddenly does. The population has been groomed for generations to be largely indifferent to, and to feel helpless about, the conduct of the political class. This didn't start with Putin, either. Of course there is a breaking point, but it can be very difficult to determine what that breaking point is if you're an outsider. Even if you're Russian, it can be hard to know since free public discourse has been stifled, meaning that for any popular uprising to succeed it will have to grow in secret.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:12
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Alan Smithee posted:okay yeah gently caress it put me down for Golden Horde II Stampede at a buffet?
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Jun 25, 2023 20:13
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There's also other factors at play. Like, if you are China right now you are probably reassessing how much you want to invest in the Putin regime. If you are Putin and you have been betting that you can outlast the West, this probably shakes that belief a bit.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:26
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A.o.D. posted:Russian popular opinion doesn't matter until it suddenly does. The population has been groomed for generations to be largely indifferent to, and to feel helpless about, the conduct of the political class. This didn't start with Putin, either. Of course there is a breaking point, but it can be very difficult to determine what that breaking point is if you're an outsider. Even if you're Russian, it can be hard to know since free public discourse has been stifled, meaning that for any popular uprising to succeed it will have to grow in secret. I think the most salient point, really, is that they were indifferent to this rebellion too. So if Putin was counting on a loving populace rising up against, well really anyone, in his defense, then this has put a gigantic hole in that plan.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:35
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psydude posted:I think the most salient point, really, is that they were indifferent to this rebellion too. So if Putin was counting on a loving populace rising up against, well really anyone, in his defense, then this has put a gigantic hole in that plan. I mean, if anything, they cheered Wagner in Rostov and booed the military. So I think that's a step worse than "indifferent" from Putin's perspective.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:38
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Jun 25, 2023 20:48
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bulletsponge13 posted:The primary expeditionary force of Russian foreign policy just invaded Russia and got close enough to Moscow for Putin to authorize a scorched earth tactic and for him to flee Moscow- something I don't recall Stalin doing, but could be wrong. Nah Stalin didn’t flee during the 1941 invasion. I know the consensus is Germany was doomed from the start but if he hadn’t broken out of his initial funk or had prioritized his own survival dunno if USSR would have made it. With losses in the millions & seemingly nonstop losses of cities & territory of senior leadership began saving themselves or they abruptly had a new leader don’t know if they could have stayed organized.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:50
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one thing this answers is the longstanding speculations wrt how girkin et al get away with saying literally the worst possible things about shoigu and the russian leadership?' turns out that no one except a handful of the most loyal helicopter pilots will actually lift a finger to stop you. shoigu especially. even the staunch loyalists couldn't mention shoigu's name without spitting. those ewar mi8 crews are literally some of the most loyal people and actual true believers in the entire russian military on that note, while putin doesn't care about popularity in the way people in democracies do, having someone around who is so universally unpopular that the mere mention of his name causes most of your military to turn off their phones and go back to sleep when called to protect him is clearly a helluva liability. on a semi-related note, old telegram post from an mi-8mtpr pilot that I thought was interesting as a bit of background https://t.me/milhelipilot/10 Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 21:00
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Russians apparently used chemical weapons recently https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1672920180379271168 Good news: apparently just tear gas https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1672981957129515016 https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1673026054858985472
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Jun 25, 2023 21:30
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there are other reasons too, they're not good for you long term, as american protestors can tell you
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Jun 25, 2023 22:00
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Ukrainian troops seem to have crossed Dnipro over the weekend. https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1673055591340572672 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673002828284022785 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673071618094948352
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Jun 25, 2023 22:06
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The post mentions a bridge head. So they managed to get a pontoon bridge erected in addition to the ferry? I can't imagine Russia has any serious equipment or troop concentrations there at this point (as evidenced by them retreating from 50 UA SOF). Just like a textbook example of seizing the initiative.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:32
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1673077918354886659quote:We officially have the first “Russians requesting airstrikes via telegram” of the counteroffensive https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673072580104798213 I seem to recall hearing an anecdote that during the invasion of Grenada, some of the US troops had to use pay phones to call for bombardments because their communications broke down. This is clearly much funnier, though.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:36
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I think the words bridge head are a mistranslation of toe hold or foot hold. Basically just getting ashore and planting a flag in the form of some angry and stubborn people with bullet generating tools.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:42
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psydude posted:The post mentions a bridge head. So they managed to get a pontoon bridge erected in addition to the ferry? A bridgehead doesn't necessarily require a physical bridge. It can be any piece of territory held at an inland water feature like a fording or a lake shore from which it's possible to launch incursions into enemy territory. Etymologically, it does literally mean holding the far side of a bridge against enemy counterattack, but the usage has expanded. edit: seeing as how a position directly underneath a bridge is being held, the term "bridgehead" is totally appropriate, even in the original sense of the word. A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 22:46
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Yes, I think it's used in the meaning "other place of possible crossing over a body of water which at time of conflict is sought to be defended or taken over by the belligerent forces".
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Jun 25, 2023 22:46
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PurpleXVI posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1673077918354886659 There was a JTAC that won the Medal of Honor who was texting the TOC to adjust fire on his position because his radio was destroyed. But yeah this is way funnier because they're doing it on a public channel, and it's very clear at this point that Russia left their third string to cover the flank.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:47
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Also "Heavy flamethrower" Probably means Thermoberic ordnance.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:51
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Also they somehow know they're being hit by Polish-made mortars??? Are mortars like wine?
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Jun 25, 2023 22:54
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EasilyConfused posted:Also they somehow know they're being hit by Polish-made mortars??? Are mortars like wine? They probably mean the M120 Rak, which is an armored mortar carrier. If you've seen one of those in the area and you're getting pelted with whopping huge mortar shells, it's pretty easy to put two and two together.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:59
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