(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Clerical Terrors posted:So did Prigozhin take some kind of deal where he and his men just sit in paid time-out in Belarus for a bit while Russia scrambles to figure out how to deal with them? something. my guess is he got a deal which he gets to live (for now)
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Jun 26, 2023 16:15
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| # ? May 29, 2024 16:15 |
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Alan Smithee posted:Prigozhin: “are they booing me?” Prigozhin could do a pretty good Minsc cosplay.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:16
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Prigozhin speaks https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1673346765423099907?t=U-q_YPILawpbToa1tiRZiw&s=19
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Jun 26, 2023 16:19
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https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673349336585871362?t=W5EEXYz7UX8LU6Gj0LvTQw&s=19 So sick of Orban's poo poo for real. The EU at least should have an ejection mechanism. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673324554402373635?t=rx9nqbZZMoQ-CBggC6IcVg&s=19 HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 16:22
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HonorableTB posted:https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673349336585871362?t=W5EEXYz7UX8LU6Gj0LvTQw&s=19 “This is DEFINITELY not what it looked like. Here is a long winded explanation nobody except the most credulous will believe. This could not be settled by negotiations and dialogue, we had to invade our own country because…”
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Jun 26, 2023 16:24
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Oh he's gonna die in Belarus for sure.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:24
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:“This is DEFINITELY not what it looked like. Here is a long winded explanation nobody except the most credulous will believe. This could not be settled by negotiations and dialogue, we had to invade our own country because…” Hmm? It kind of sounds like more or less exactly what we saw happen and why he stopped.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:25
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CommieGIR posted:Oh he's gonna die in Belarus for sure. I'm gonna be a contrarian and predict he outlives Putin.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:25
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It was merely a "million Wagner march", along the lines of something seen in Washington DC every summer. You westalures will never understand Russia.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:26
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Giving PMC Wagner a small semi-autonomous area to control in Belarus kinda reminds me of the barbarian foederati kingdoms in the late (Western) Roman Empire. PMC Goths will defend the Danube!
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Jun 26, 2023 16:27
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:“This is DEFINITELY not what it looked like. Here is a long winded explanation nobody except the most credulous will believe. This could not be settled by negotiations and dialogue, we had to invade our own country because…” Just doing a 'lil internal security audit, nbd
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Jun 26, 2023 16:28
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Seems to me the intended shutdown of Wagner (probably pushed by Shoigu) was probably the impetus of the march. I'd also say this "deal" is in reality a ceasefire while everyone involved plans their next move.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:28
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Really feels like one big victory by Ukraine will set things off big time. Especially if what Maks was saying about progress made near Donetsk City was true. Kinda feel like if Russia loses either Lugansk City, Donetsk City, or Kherson oblast is completely liberated, any one of those would be enough to put a fatal nail in the coffin for Russia. Those are I think the crown jewels though losing Donetsk City would probably be the most humiliating vs most actually damaging (that would be Crimea)
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Jun 26, 2023 16:29
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I bet Putin is pretty chuffed about having his country's security tested. 'Better to know about these things' he always says.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:31
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Right before the spicy tea makes it to the Prig Pen, Yevgeny does a coup in Belarus.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:33
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Delthalaz posted:Giving PMC Wagner a small semi-autonomous area to control in Belarus kinda reminds me of the barbarian foederati kingdoms in the late (Western) Roman Empire. PMC Goths will defend the Danube! Kojima has foreseen everything
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Jun 26, 2023 16:35
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I remember playing MGS4 and being so confused by the PMC plot. Naive me thought it sounded absurd and unrealistic. I guess we're not using mind control nano agents yet
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Jun 26, 2023 16:37
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HonorableTB posted:Really feels like one big victory by Ukraine will set things off big time. Especially if what Maks was saying about progress made near Donetsk City was true. Kinda feel like if Russia loses either Lugansk City, Donetsk City, or Kherson oblast is completely liberated, any one of those would be enough to put a fatal nail in the coffin for Russia. Those are I think the crown jewels though losing Donetsk City would probably be the most humiliating vs most actually damaging (that would be Crimea) Alas the Russians threatening to blow up the Zaporihizia Power Plant overshadows all of this 
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Jun 26, 2023 16:38
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I don't really see how this is much like MGS4 beyond vague PMC terminology, which was also how it was used in MGS4.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:39
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Randarkman posted:Hmm? It kind of sounds like more or less exactly what we saw happen and why he stopped. Was it Sun Tzu who said “when you disagree with the monarch, start an armed rebellion and march on the capital, and then run out of steam the first day. Kings and Princes are usually in a forgiving mood.”
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Jun 26, 2023 16:42
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Clerical Terrors posted:So did Prigozhin take some kind of deal where he and his men just sit in paid time-out in Belarus for a bit while Russia scrambles to figure out how to deal with them? That's good news for Ukraine. If they're in Belarus, they're not fighting.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:43
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SHOIGUUUUUUU
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Jun 26, 2023 16:43
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Randarkman posted:I don't really see how this is much like MGS4 beyond vague PMC terminology, which was also how it was used in MGS4. Just in the significant use of PMCs in modern conflicts. I don't remember much else of the plot.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:45
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My current favorite totally uninformed idea is Putin is just a few months from death anyway and Pretty Priggy is making sure he is in a prime pole position for the real power vacuum struggle.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:46
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Jun 26, 2023 16:46
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William Bear posted:That's good news for Ukraine. If they're in Belarus, they're not fighting. Yeah it's not as good as it would've been if they actually shot at each other on the Red Square but pretty good. MoD is down a bunch of aircraft, Wagner out of the picture, Putin's clowns still in charge and get to gently caress up another day.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:46
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If we're guessing about stuff: Prigozhin was tired of throwing his army at goals that didn't enrich him or give credit to his organization. He also wasn't thrilled about being forced to integrate with the Russian army next month. He thinks he has multiple allies in the MoD. He starts the show of force to force leadership changes at the MoD. After taking Rostov he doesn't get support from the people he was counting on. He knows he's lost and if he stops there he'll get crushed, so he presses on towards Moscow, forcing a response before anyone has the chance to really evaluate the threat militarily (because he knows he'd lose). Luka makes a deal to take Wagner to Belarus. He gets a capable fighting force in his borders, Russia doesn't have to have fighting in the capital, Prigozhin preserves what's left of his army and retains his extraterritorial holdings (I guess?), so he gets to stay rich and powerful. Putin is absolutely planning Prigozhin's death and everyone knows it, but it didn't happen today so it's a win for now. Everyone came out of this weaker, but it could have been worse all around. I don't think Prigozhin is going to spend much time in Belarus, one way or another.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:47
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HonorableTB posted:Prigozhin speaks "hey sorry we killed like 15 people in my tempertantrum, please dont drill me in the back of the head with a bullet"
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Jun 26, 2023 16:49
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Roman Reigns posted:Alas the Russians threatening to blow up the Zaporihizia Power Plant overshadows all of this The only source for that is Ukrainian intelligence who have been warning about that for past 10 months or so
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Jun 26, 2023 16:51
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I also think it's very likely Prigozhin was going to be neutralized very soon anyway, so from his perspective he was playing with house money and was happy to take whatever deal kept him breathing and not in jail.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:53
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fatherboxx posted:The only source for that is Ukrainian intelligence who have been warning about that for past 10 months or so Well the russians aren't exactly going to announce it in advance
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Jun 26, 2023 16:55
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Alan Smithee posted:Prigozhin: “are they booing me?” "No, sir. They're chanting boo-yar."
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Jun 26, 2023 17:06
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Lockback posted:I also think it's very likely Prigozhin was going to be neutralized very soon anyway, so from his perspective he was playing with house money and was happy to take whatever deal kept him breathing and not in jail. “There’s a guy with his own loyal & capable army in my country who doesn’t exactly report to me” has been an existential threat to national leaders since the end of the ice age.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:07
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fatherboxx posted:The only source for that is Ukrainian intelligence who have been warning about that for past 10 months or so Weren’t they also warning about the dam months in advance as well?
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Jun 26, 2023 17:17
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I'm pretty sure that in later Roman history every few months some general would decide that he could do a better job and just march his legions on Rome
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Jun 26, 2023 17:18
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Warm und Fuzzy posted:Minsk looks like, "What if soviet architecture, but in the 2010's?" https://goo.gl/maps/o6NfcMoJfatPdgKy6  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SARiXLJhlj8 crispix fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 17:20
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Diorama posted:I'm pretty sure that in later Roman history every few months some general would decide that he could do a better job and just march his legions on Rome Rule One for dictators is “there can’t be anyone around in your domain who has armed forces and who might be more popular than you.” Wagner in Africa- no problem, nobody in Russia cares who’s running Mali. Have fun in your colonies. Wagner near Russia - danger Will Robinson, you have a charismatic leader with well trained troops doing the only winning on your side. 100% guaranteed to start getting ideas.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:24
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:Rule One for dictators is “there can’t be anyone around in your domain who has armed forces and who might be more popular than you.” I mean you don't even need to be more popular, at least not with the people, they don't matter one bit, you just need the loyal troops. Septimius Severus's dying words to his sons sums it all up pretty well "Be harmonious, enrich the soldiers, scorn everybody else."
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Jun 26, 2023 17:29
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Der Kyhe posted:Exactly which part of the "you cannot just turn off the fuel rods, and if you explode away the vessel the fuel is in and the containment building housing it, you end up with burning fuel rods exposed to outside, contaminating and irradiating all surrounding places" was a lie as you seem to be accusing me about lying about this? The zpp reactors have been off for so long that the fuel could probably just about go into dry cask storage. The fuel assembly is as off as it's gonna get.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:31
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What I'm taking from WW2 is that rule by heavily armed prison gangs under the purview of military intelligence is a proud Russian tradition
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Jun 26, 2023 17:34
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