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I don't remember where I saw it posted in the flurry of stuff about the Wagner situation, but one theory I think has some possibility is that Prigozhin didn't expect Putin to react the way he did - that it was a miscalculation in how the boss would view Wagner moving against MOD assets. Putin has let infighting between MOD and Wagner go on very publicly for a long time and the idea is that perhaps Prigozhin didn't expect his move against Shoigu and Gerasimov to be viewed as a larger move against the state/Putin. When Vlad reacts as if it's a real threat to his personal power Prigozhin now has overstepped into a lose-lose situation and has to back down even though it's obviously a weakened/endangered position. I think it's pretty plausible that a guy who is very deep into his own fiefdom's fight against the MOD could lose perspective on how a big move like that would be viewed from outside those two factions and would explain why backing down was his only real option.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:43
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Amazing that an absolute fuckup like Shoigu got clowned on by Wagner and is going to come out of this with more power. Pretty disappointing that Ukraine couldn't make a breakthrough during the chaos.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:47
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The X-man cometh posted:Amazing that an absolute fuckup like Shoigu got clowned on by Wagner and is going to come out of this with more power. Well, it was over so fast I don't think Ukraine had time to capitalize on it.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:50
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The thunder run on Moscow being over doesn't mean its over, and definitely doesn't mean that logistics and command hasn't been disrupted. If you're a local battalion on the dnieper and you hear that a division just mutinied and made it to spitting distance of Moscow, that starts you asking pointed questions about your own position and supply lines. If now you come under attack from Ukrainian forces and you aren't confident there are relief forces staged to counterattack, that seed of doubt can substantially impact the battle. Also if you're UA and you know that russian forces are mutinying it buoys your own morale to carry you into a breakthrough.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:53
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Ukraine also probably wanted to see if Russians were going to get fully committed to fighting one another before they decided to drop the hammer, and that hasn't come to pass... ... yet
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Jun 26, 2023 15:53
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glynnenstein posted:I don't remember where I saw it posted in the flurry of stuff about the Wagner situation, but one theory I think has some possibility is that Prigozhin didn't expect Putin to react the way he did - that it was a miscalculation in how the boss would view Wagner moving against MOD assets. Putin has let infighting between MOD and Wagner go on very publicly for a long time and the idea is that perhaps Prigozhin didn't expect his move against Shoigu and Gerasimov to be viewed as a larger move against the state/Putin. When Vlad reacts as if it's a real threat to his personal power Prigozhin now has overstepped into a lose-lose situation and has to back down even though it's obviously a weakened/endangered position. I think it's pretty plausible that a guy who is very deep into his own fiefdom's fight against the MOD could lose perspective on how a big move like that would be viewed from outside those two factions and would explain why backing down was his only real option. This is my take as well. I think both Prigozhin and Putin thought that they had each other's back and it was mutually embarrassing when it turned out they didn't. Putin assumed Prigozhin wouldn't do something so stupid, Prigozhin assumed that if he made a big enough noise that Putin would give him what he wanted.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:53
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Prigo, casting himself as modern day MLK https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1673342152183513090 https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1673343377578811392
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Jun 26, 2023 16:03
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It's also a bit interesting if we extrapolate the possibility that Prigozhin viewed challenging Putin's control as so absurd that he didn't think it would be an interpretation anyone would apply to his actions regardless of scope, but that Putin didn't feel as secure.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:18
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glynnenstein posted:I don't remember where I saw it posted in the flurry of stuff about the Wagner situation, but one theory I think has some possibility is that Prigozhin didn't expect Putin to react the way he did - that it was a miscalculation in how the boss would view Wagner moving against MOD assets. Putin has let infighting between MOD and Wagner go on very publicly for a long time and the idea is that perhaps Prigozhin didn't expect his move against Shoigu and Gerasimov to be viewed as a larger move against the state/Putin. When Vlad reacts as if it's a real threat to his personal power Prigozhin now has overstepped into a lose-lose situation and has to back down even though it's obviously a weakened/endangered position. I think it's pretty plausible that a guy who is very deep into his own fiefdom's fight against the MOD could lose perspective on how a big move like that would be viewed from outside those two factions and would explain why backing down was his only real option. This seems somewhat believable but Prig did also criticize Putin directly in some of his speeches. I think this may be part of it but also both parties realized that 1) Prig could capture Moscow if he wanted, and 2) capturing Moscow doesn't really accomplish anything long-term in an age of planes and cellphones unless you have the rest of the government on board, and he didn't.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:23
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This seems somewhat believable but Prig did also criticize Putin directly in some of his speeches. If I understood the timeline of events and the things said, Prig very much did not criticize Putin. He said that Putin was misled by the MoD, and gave Putin outs, basically.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:56
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windshipper posted:If I understood the timeline of events and the things said, Prig very much did not criticize Putin. He said that Putin was misled by the MoD, and gave Putin outs, basically.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:32
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My armchair general take is that Prigozhin wasn't getting the widespread defections he was hoping for on his race toward Moscow City. He knew he was going to meet strong resistance in the city and this could turn into Bahkmut 2.0. Both sides were willing to negotiate because turning Moscow into a graveyard wasn't what either side wanted. Of course not because they care about the deaths of innocent civilians.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:44
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Without defections he was going to be in pretty deep poo poo, and he did not get defections (though he also didn't get resistance).
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Jun 26, 2023 17:46
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really, really, really good tweet here https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1673310178756706307?t=PQgGEdJG_TGov1ssUWVhtA&s=19
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Jun 26, 2023 17:46
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facialimpediment posted:really, really, really good tweet here hahahahahahahahahaahaha
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Jun 26, 2023 17:52
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Nessus posted:And then he marched on Moscow, so Reminds me of the feud between the Habsburg brothers Rudolf II and Matthias of Austria. In the years before the 30 year war, when Rudolf was the Emperor, he was losing his grip on power in face of a growing religious division in Bohemia which Matthias was taking advantage of to gradually strip Rudolf of power. In an attempt to suppress the dissent, Rudolf called on Prince of Passau to march his troops into his domain and pacify the rebellious nobles so Rudolf could revoke the privileges he had been forced to grant them in the previous years. The prince obliged and upon reaching the capital, Prague, started rounding up important families and forcing them to swear fealty to Rudolf. The only result of this invasion in the name of upholding Imperial authority was to turn even the loyalists against Rudolf and to give Matthias the legitimacy needed to finally overthrow him. So that's something i think about when people say "actually Prigozhin never wanted to defeat Putin when he attacked Russian heartland, he and Putin shared goals".
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Jun 26, 2023 17:53
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facialimpediment posted:really, really, really good tweet here Except for that one. Don't worry, they'll find it.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:24
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Flyinglemur posted:Except for that one. Don't worry, they'll find it. Witnesses will report that he was trying to do his best Garry Hoy impression. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Garry_Hoy
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Jun 26, 2023 18:28
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facialimpediment posted:really, really, really good tweet here Yeah but how's the stairs situation? Does it have one of those middle voids that people are always getting thrown down in the movies?
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Jun 26, 2023 18:38
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psydude posted:Yeah but how's the stairs situation? He is not protected.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:39
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Stultus Maximus posted:He is not protected. He never struck me as a goon. Always gave off 4chan vibes.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:40
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He fell down an elevator shaft. Onto bullets.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:49
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Woodchip posted:He fell down an elevator shaft. Onto bullets. All I have is this bowling ball.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:56
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as much as they'd love to be rid of him, prigozhin is something of a soleimani figure wrt foreign policy as someone who has worked very effectively across multiple regions and several countries at rolling back Western geopolitical influence at an incredibly rapid rate. I don't make that comparison lightly. He's one of the most destabilizing people alive period and up until last week that had been virtually entirely in service of Russian strategic and geopolitical interests (and his own and many others' enrichment). russia killing him and neutering wagner would be one of the best possible outcomes of this vis a vis, broadly, NATO, European, American interests. almost certainly one of the few best possible things that could happen wrt growth of democracy in africa, too. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 19:14
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Let me be the first to make this future hot take: Putin had some good ideas: he got rid of Wagner.
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Jun 26, 2023 19:23
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the man is a literal golden goose.
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Jun 26, 2023 19:27
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Herstory Begins Now posted:as much as they'd love to be rid of him, prigozhin is something of a soleimani figure wrt foreign policy as someone who has worked very effectively across multiple regions and several countries at rolling back Western geopolitical influence at an incredibly rapid rate. I don't make that comparison lightly. He's one of the most destabilizing people alive period and up until last week that had been virtually entirely in service of Russian strategic and geopolitical interests (and his own and many others' enrichment). Yeah, bizarrely, he seems to be the only competent leader they have.
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Jun 26, 2023 19:29
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Herstory Begins Now posted:as much as they'd love to be rid of him, prigozhin is something of a soleimani figure wrt foreign policy as someone who has worked very effectively across multiple regions and several countries at rolling back Western geopolitical influence at an incredibly rapid rate. I don't make that comparison lightly. He's one of the most destabilizing people alive period and up until last week that had been virtually entirely in service of Russian strategic and geopolitical interests (and his own and many others' enrichment). Yeah. Wagner is still very important to Russia's interests in Africa especially. They may want Wagner under MOD control in Ukraine, but they likely still want Wagner to be the same old Wagner elsewhere.
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Jun 26, 2023 19:32
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Watch Kim annex Vladivostok.
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Jun 26, 2023 19:35
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Call it the Blunder Run, you heard it here second. Someone tweet it, then someone else cite the tweet in wikipedia. Just like Cope Cages.
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Jun 26, 2023 20:01
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M_Gargantua posted:Call it the Blunder Run, you heard it here second. Operation Blyat Storm
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Jun 26, 2023 20:07
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Loezi posted:Operation Blyat Storm
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Jun 26, 2023 20:07
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1673407401079238663 My prediction: he will repeat everything he's previously said on the war, will avoid mentioning Wagner and Prigozhin beyond a single oblique sentence.
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Jun 26, 2023 20:08
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Alchenar posted:My prediction: he will repeat everything he's previously said on the war, will avoid mentioning Wagner and Prigozhin beyond a single oblique sentence. It'd be silly to expect otherwise
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Jun 26, 2023 20:10
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https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1673326965837709316/photo/1
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Jun 26, 2023 20:19
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windshipper posted:If I understood the timeline of events and the things said, Prig very much did not criticize Putin. He said that Putin was misled by the MoD, and gave Putin outs, basically. It's a historically popular position You're not rebeling against the king. Beloved of the people, chosen by God. No, no. It's his evil advisors that must be replaced*. *By you. And if the king has an accident during the takeover......oh well new king time.
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Jun 26, 2023 20:24
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The last time I saw one of these maps, it turned out to be a map from some Chinese TV show that was literally just illustrating which nation's capital a given part of Russia was closest to, yet was being mis-parsed as a "plan to partition Russia."
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Jun 26, 2023 20:24
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Breaking: Traitors to receive all expense paid trip to Belarus!
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Jun 26, 2023 20:27
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The joke is that that's a map of areas under various factions control in 1917/18 right?
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Jun 26, 2023 20:28
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 https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673412366136930323
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