(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Atreiden posted:Anyone suggesting this as some kind of 5D chess move should be ignored. Russia is playing XD chess
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Jun 27, 2023 21:00
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FlamingLiberal posted:The problem is that these propagandists are never going to be prepared to respond to a strange situation like this one, and on top of that there has not been a clear message from Moscow on what the line is supposed to be Indeed, I will say that consistency in their presence is important regardless of whether they had anything to say. Even if the major propagandists were in the field, they can setup a professional looking shot near a field or in a city street, briefly explain they are elsewhere for XYZ project, and provide some kind of vapid commentary to establish that they are not panicking. You had one guy reporting from a moving vehicle and this lady being MIA. Not a reassuring look.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:00
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Morrow posted:Putin really doesn't respond well to things he's not in control of. You get the idea that he's a decisive authority because usually he's the one stirring poo poo, but whenever he's in his own crisis mode he will usually procrastinate as much as possible. The early days of the war, really the whole war, are a Great example of that: the initial strategy didn't work and it took months to pivot away from the idea of a lightning assault on Kyiv. Even now he's really just procrastinating on the whole war when it's pretty clear that Russia will buckle before Ukraine does. Also Russia can barely hold and supply the front it’s currently engaged on and just straight up doesn’t have the resources to extend that any further. Adding an entirely new and separate front a few hundred km away from their existing supply lines and bases is beyond stupid, especially given that Ukrainian has much much shorter internal lines of communications. Which tbh means the Russians will probably try it. Kaiser Schnitzel fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Jun 27, 2023 |
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Jun 27, 2023 21:06
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Meanwhile: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1673747895562936337 (A pizza place) At least 3 dead (including a child), 42 injured including 3 foreigners.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:08
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https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1673727162480832516 Time to find out if Wagner will just dissolve or resist.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:16
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"Some sources" is definitely what I'm putting all my trust on, especially if it's unspecified Syrian sources.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:20
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lagidnam posted:I can see that, Prigozhin wanted to push back but in doing so nearly toppled the whole country. Russia is like one of those saloons in the old Bugs Bunny cartoons, a flat front with 2 pieces of plywood in the back so it doesn't fall over. A sort of Potemkin Saloon… e;fb five thousand pages ago
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Jun 27, 2023 21:22
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Nenonen posted:"Some sources" is definitely what I'm putting all my trust on, especially if it's unspecified Syrian sources. I don't think anyone's expecting you to replan your entire life around it, unless you're working for Wagner in Syria I guess? https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1673732756918923266
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Jun 27, 2023 21:25
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1673727162480832516 No listed source even on the telegram screenshot? Yeah
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Jun 27, 2023 21:27
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The next call of duty and battlefield titles sure are getting some free writing inspiration from all of this wackiness
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Jun 27, 2023 21:29
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awesome-express posted:The next call of duty and battlefield titles sure are getting some free writing inspiration from all of this wackiness It was already hard to play Modern Warfare 2 when we were supposed to believe that Russia had enough lift capacity to invade the entire east coast. Now they need to model the games with the Russian army being complete boobs about everything.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:31
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been an amazing week of people discovering that you can find a russian telegram channel that says literally anything at all
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Jun 27, 2023 21:32
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hell if you can't find one saying whatever you're trying to find you can just pay one to say it, too
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Jun 27, 2023 21:32
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Herstory Begins Now posted:hell if you can't find one saying whatever you're trying to find you can just pay one to say it, too I'm glad I'm not the only one asking "why the gently caress should I believe or even care what any given Telegram channel says?"
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Jun 27, 2023 21:34
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Herstory Begins Now posted:been an amazing week of people discovering that you can find a russian telegram channel that says literally anything at all It is good that anonymous Russian tg channel boom has died before pandemic because good lord the amount of "JUST HEARD FROM MY FRIEND FROM FSB" bullshit would have melted untrained western observers
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Jun 27, 2023 21:35
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Sorry guys gonna have to wait on an official statement from Putin on this one
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Jun 27, 2023 21:39
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Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:39
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can we start probating people for posting the most dogshit telegram rumors when its obvious that they haven't done even 10 seconds of due dilligence about the poo poo they're linking in here because it's been really ridiculous lately
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Jun 27, 2023 21:40
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fatherboxx posted:It is good that anonymous Russian tg channel boom has died before pandemic because good lord the amount of "JUST HEARD FROM MY FRIEND FROM FSB" bullshit would have melted untrained western observers This "I'm totally an IC insider u guise" LARPing is how QAnon got started. But because westerners were largely unfamiliar with telegram it was fertile ground again.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:can we start probating people for posting the most dogshit telegram rumors when its obvious that they haven't done even 10 seconds of due dilligence about the poo poo they're linking in here because it's been really ridiculous lately When I get the same thing on my feed from 3 journalists and a strategic studies professor, I basically pick the first one to post here if he's not already being discussed. Would you prefer it if I posted all of them? What would be best here. It's a rumour, no poo poo, being discussed by a bunch of people with far better credentials than anyone commenting in this thread. What threshold does it have to reach, on an individual basis, or will pure quantity of people discussing it do?
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Jun 27, 2023 21:48
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Chalks posted:Sorry guys gonna have to wait on an official statement from Putin on this one Don't be salty, I believe you had sincere intention. But there is so much dis- and misinformation going on, you should try to check if it's more than an anonymous rumour. If not, simply call it an unsourced rumour. 
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Jun 27, 2023 21:51
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Chalks posted:When I get the same thing on my feed from 3 journalists and a strategic studies professor, I basically pick the first one to post here if he's not already being discussed. I won't probe for posting rumour tweets (unless someone would accompany that with anxiety posting, thats a paddling and a timeout), but this thread has some standards so I expect everyone to at least spend 30 seconds of clickthrough to check if the source leads anywhere reputable.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:52
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. Not to be pedantic, but it's hard to use words like "good" or "bad" when it comes to militaries. It's not really helpful. But what we do "know" or have seen: Russia started a war of conquest against a country they planned on decapitating and then occupying, without an army large enough to occupy said country. Their military is noticeably less competent than we've been led to believe for 40 years, and their path to "victory" is a stalemate that will kill 100k+ of their standing army and god knows how much equipment. Their intelligence, tactics, and strategy have all been head-scratching awful. The fact that they are effective at all is a reflection of sheer numbers more than competence.
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Jun 27, 2023 21:54
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. I think part of the issue here is that what with the disparity of their budgets, size, and air superiority by all rights they should really be doing much better than "holding their own." It's like if Rocky was going up against one of the cast members of Big Bang Theory - if Rocky was described as "holding his own" in that match, you'd be talking about how holy poo poo the dude has gone all the way downhill. Furthermore, Ukraine didn't HAVE much if anything in the way of high-end Western hardware when everything kicked off, and even now while they've gotten a bunch of Western gear it'd be hard to describe the majority of their army as Western equipped - a small core of impactful Western stuff has gotten over but it's still a bit piecemeal and up until very recently the support has mostly been support stuff like HIMARS or Patriots, which is important but isn't the raw mass of heavy equipment you need to push an offensive. They have formed and are using the heavy formations of Western tanks and IFVs but we've yet to see them decisively engaged, so bit of a question mark how much impact that will have. With regards to their training as discussed their training is interesting in that the younger generation has been getting Western-style training and values while their higher ranks are still frequently Soviet holdovers - and that was before the war. With the onset of the war you get trainers where you can find them to process your new recruits, and that means a lot of older Soviet guys mixed in with more Western training styles.
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Jun 27, 2023 22:02
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fatherboxx posted:I won't probe for that (unless someone would accompany that with anxiety posting, thats a paddling and a timeout), but this thread has some standards so I expect everyone to at least spend 30 seconds of clickthrough to check if the source leads anywhere reputable. What happened was I saw this thing appear on my feed 4 times being discussed by a bunch of reputable people, and posted it here after scrolling through some of the conversations and checking the last couple of pages to make sure it hadn't already been posted. I subsequently posted a second tweet on the topic, would that one have been better? Like it's a Kyiv Independent reporter citing a report on Al Hadath, citing "sources". I don't really feel like that's a more solid source, but it's got more layers of people thinking it's worth discussing evident in the tweet? I guess I should also have posted my original thing in the sub-tweet form from Phillips P. OBrien like I originally found it? What is the expectation for how a rumour should be posted here? Given that much of the information we know about the Wagner situation over the past week has been in this form and there are credible people discussing it
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Jun 27, 2023 22:03
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Chalks posted:What happened was I saw this thing appear on my feed 4 times being discussed by a bunch of reputable people, and posted it here after scrolling through some of the conversations and checking the last couple of pages to make sure it hadn't already been posted. To me the main problem with the initial Tweet quoting a Telegram is that it was so sketchy. I don't know Giorgi Revishvili or how reliable he is. Nor does the quote specify anything particular. "If true a HUGE development" is a troubling wording if you have no means of telling if it's true.
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Jun 27, 2023 22:12
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. Fancy western hardware really doesn't matter that much. Sure it is largely technically superior to soviet or Russian designs, but basically a tank is a tank and a SAM is a SAM. If any tank or IFV/APC runs over a mine, they are out of action. If they take a direct hit from an anti-tank missile, they are probably out of action. In western equipment, the crew and the vehicle are more likely to survive that hit than in the Russian stuff, but the vehicle, whether a T-55 or an Abrams is gonna be out of commission. Probably permanently and with a dead crew in the case of the t-55 and for a few weeks and with a living but shaken crew in the Abrams or Bradley. Western stuff has better sensors, optics, and comms gear which might be hugely and decisively helpful in a big open tank battle, but it doesn't do jack poo poo against a minefield watched by concealed infantry and pre-sighted, drone-corrected artillery. Even more than that, what makes western (and especially the US) equipment seem so much better is that the militaries using it have generally had years of training for the individual crews and the decades of institutional knowledge behind that. Give a bunch of Abrams to poorly trained Saudi's with bad morale and Houthi's seem to be able to blow them up just fine. The Ukrainians using all that fancy equipment have only had a few months to train with it, and many of them were civilians until six or eight months ago. They may have great morale and are smart guys, but practice and experience are very time-dependent. Kaiser Schnitzel fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Jun 27, 2023 |
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Jun 27, 2023 22:16
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. A ton... of western hardware that amounts to like 5% of what the U.S. military spends yearly on hardware and other stuff
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Jun 27, 2023 22:20
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. To be clear 'holding their own' in this situation is absurdly bad. They should have had every advantage in the world and capitalized on none of it.
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Jun 27, 2023 22:25
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Nenonen posted:To me the main problem with the initial Tweet quoting a Telegram is that it was so sketchy. I don't know Giorgi Revishvili or how reliable he is. Nor does the quote specify anything particular. "If true a HUGE development" is a troubling wording if you have no means of telling if it's true. Would multiple tweet sources be helpful for that sort of thing? I feel like it's kinda obnoxious to post like, 3 embeds that are all basically exactly the same info to give it more weight. Also feel kinda the same with subtweets, if someone I consider legitimate subtweets a rumour (which is what happened here) I'll do a quick search to see if other people are talking about it then post that original tweet. I can see how it lends more credibility to post a tweet that's subtweeting a tweet that's got a screenshot of a message about a rumour in it but like... ick. Also on rumours like this all the other sources you find when searching are just citation onions that don't actually add anything besides just being credible people talking about it. Here's Meduza reporting that Kommersant is reporting that Al-Hadath is reporting that an unnamed source told them about the raid. I could post that, but then someone will immediately reply with some arcane knowledge that Meduza is known as unreliable or something which seems to happen 50% of the time when ever I search for a topic and pick a search result rather than someone I've posted before. Posting rumours here without getting pounced on is a minefield and I'd love to know how to judge it better. Chalks fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Jun 27, 2023 |
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Jun 27, 2023 22:27
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. A military that they still outnumber and outgun by a very significant margin. If the US invaded Canada and got bogged down south of Toronto and hadn't made any meaningful progress after a year and, in fact, had gotten thrown back in places then yeah, you could absolutely say they were doing a bad job.
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Jun 27, 2023 22:28
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Moon Slayer posted:A military that they still outnumber and outgun by a very significant margin. If the US invaded Canada and got bogged down south of Toronto and hadn't made any meaningful progress after a year and, in fact, had gotten thrown back in places then yeah, you could absolutely say they were doing a bad job. It's still wild to me that Russia's GDP is about on par with Canada's, and Canada actually has a bigger budget.
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Jun 27, 2023 22:31
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fatherboxx posted:I won't probe for posting rumour tweets (unless someone would accompany that with anxiety posting, thats a paddling and a timeout), but this thread has some standards so I expect everyone to at least spend 30 seconds of clickthrough to check if the source leads anywhere reputable. just hold it to the same standard as twitter posting at least
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Jun 27, 2023 22:31
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Chalks posted:Would multiple tweet sources be helpful for that sort of thing? I feel like it's kinda obnoxious to post like, 3 embeds that are all basically exactly the same info to give it more weight. Also feel kinda the same with subtweets, if someone I consider legitimate subtweets a rumour (which is what happened here) I'll do a quick search to see if other people are talking about it then post that original tweet. I can see how it lends more credibility to post a tweet that's subtweeting a tweet that's got a screenshot of a message about a rumour in it but like... ick. This discussion probably would have never happened if you had just gone with your second source. A Saudi Arabian news channel citing "some sources" is at least a step up from some guy nobody knows doing so
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Jun 27, 2023 22:35
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It is at a minimum beneficial to identify and characterize the context and credibility of any mediating sources. If you've got three mediators, say who they are and why they make the claim more credible. You should also give as much info about the root source as possible. Both are necessary. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Jun 27, 2023 |
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Jun 27, 2023 22:38
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Libluini posted:This discussion probably would have never happened if you had just gone with your second source. A Saudi Arabian news channel citing "some sources" is at least a step up from some guy nobody knows doing so for instance here is now meduza characterizes the same thing:  yes that definitely would've been 1000 times better to post than the no context no source telegram rumor tweet
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Jun 27, 2023 22:41
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Ok, thanks and sorry for the derail.
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Jun 27, 2023 22:47
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Herstory Begins Now posted:for instance here is now meduza characterizes the same thing: Right, though even with this ---- well, Kommersant is about as close to respectable as remains in Russia, I can probably guess the Saudi's angle, but I don't know what sort of publication Al-Hadath is....
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Jun 27, 2023 22:51
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Luka's retelling of the events makes it sound like a high school drama: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673678797328064516 Meanwhile the air raids have really stepped up, its pretty much been daily since the coup I think? https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1673767546867134464 I also can't believe Prigozhin left these fine folks out to dry: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1673803622142836737 WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Jun 27, 2023 |
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Jun 27, 2023 22:59
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I have been watching this for about a week now but with mil bloggers on both sides commenting on it, I think it's worth bringing up. Ukrainian SoF units have been operating on the eastern side of what remains of the Antonivka bridge over the past week in the village of Dachi. Posters have shown some sketchy tweets about combat footage in that area, and up till today it was only the unreliable pro-Ukranian accounts tweeting about this, but it is safe to say that the Ukrainian presence is real and it is permanent at this point. The thing that piques my interest is that both sides are now talking about pontoon assets being seen/located in the area and in Nova Khakova and that some may already have been thrown up. Example: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1673400883894272000?s=20 Rybar's daily update today indicates that Ru aviation and drone operators have tried to hit these positions but the Ukrainians have moved SAM and EW assets close enough to make it difficult for the Russians to work on this problem. Rybar also claims that they have information that the Ukrainian 93rd was being pulled out of Chasiv Yar (Bakhmut sector) and in the process of redeploying in the Kherson region. This all may be just a ploy to keep the Russians honest and not strip the left bank of the Dnipro of all troops and I remain skeptical that the Ukranians would try a cross-river operation of any significance given the risks, but the possibility of that is no longer at zero I think.
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Jun 27, 2023 23:20
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