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fatherboxx)
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WarpedLichen posted:Luka's retelling of the events makes it sound like a high school drama: Yeah this is full on good cop/bad cop Which I *guess lets Putin appear the strongman ready to crush the traitors and Luka tries the soft diplomacy... but it always amazes me that anyone would try that angle though. Cause it seems like with but 2 brain cells anyone can see that this still makes Putin look like a weak fool who for whatever reason needed one of his toadies to talk down the army knocking on the Kremlin's door. But I guess there was no way to completely save face on this one with Prigozhin living, so they're trying their best.
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Jun 27, 2023 23:25
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Chalks posted:Would multiple tweet sources be helpful for that sort of thing? I feel like it's kinda obnoxious to post like, 3 embeds that are all basically exactly the same info to give it more weight. Also feel kinda the same with subtweets, if someone I consider legitimate subtweets a rumour (which is what happened here) I'll do a quick search to see if other people are talking about it then post that original tweet. I can see how it lends more credibility to post a tweet that's subtweeting a tweet that's got a screenshot of a message about a rumour in it but like... ick. the most basic thing is just go follow whatever it is that is being claimed back to the source and then apply the standard 'does this look vaguely, remotely credible' 'is this a source that would know this?' 'is this a report of a report of a report?' (the most common way that rumors and other fake poo poo gets laundered into otherwise respectable media). Just doing the basic thing of following it back to its source with both this and the vchk-ogpu sourced you posted a couple of days ago would've raised red flags. also if you don't know if a foreign media source is good or not, just ask. it's specifically a minefield that's easy to stumble into because if you don't have the context of already knowing stuff about sources or at least know other ways to verify something, yeah it's difficult to judge how legit something is. when in doubt just err on the side of treating it as unfounded rumor until reported otherwise by somewhere credible, especially in a media/information ecosystem that is so jampacked with bullshit and competing narrative-spins as this has been for the last week. as a general thing, too, if you can't identify the ideology or bias of a channel just don't trust it until you can figure it out because there's basically nothing out there that isn't in service of some narrative or agenda also as a particular risk with telegram, and especially russian natsec or military related channels, many/most channels will post stuff for money or for other opaque reasons so even the comparably reliable ones still post some particularly slanted stuff from time to time. there's an added complexity where both russia and ukraine (and no doubt others) have been putting significant resources into creating fake telegram presences that present as the opposing side and then use those to seed rumors and promote other bullshit when they're trying to create the maximum amount of chaos. one particularly visible example of this was during one of the early belgorod incursions where fake belgorod news outlets were posting wild rumors and fake government statements from accounts where just enough effort had been put in to make them at least passably look like media accounts. both sides have been doing that, but I mention that example because it was particularly visible personally, and yeah I'm absolutely weird don't get me wrong, I find it helpful to keep spreadsheets for foreign media and telegram channels and other sources. there's a lot of info to keep track of and every little thing helps lastly sorry to single you out, it's really not just you and it's been happening everywhere for the last few days and even people who are generally at least fairly reliable have been biting on weird telegram dregs and the like. we're probably due to update the good/garbage sources list in the op also if anyone else has stuff to add about how to parse russian media/social media sources please share because man it is a peculiar information ecosystem to try to wrap one's head around, especially post feb 24th Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Jun 27, 2023 |
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Jun 27, 2023 23:35
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Chalks posted:Would multiple tweet sources be helpful for that sort of thing? I feel like it's kinda obnoxious to post like, 3 embeds that are all basically exactly the same info to give it more weight. Also feel kinda the same with subtweets, if someone I consider legitimate subtweets a rumour (which is what happened here) I'll do a quick search to see if other people are talking about it then post that original tweet. I can see how it lends more credibility to post a tweet that's subtweeting a tweet that's got a screenshot of a message about a rumour in it but like... ick. I mean if you have twenty people talking about the same rumor, and it all turns out that they all heard it from the drunk guy at the bar who claimed he was told by "unspecified sources in the moleman community," does that make the rumor more credible? What if it was a hundred people listening to this drunk guy? Does it become more credible then? The question isn't how many people are spreading the rumor, it's how many sources are repeating it (and how credible they are). If it was every drunk guy in every bar in the city saying the same thing, even though it's drunk dudes in bars with dodgy sources that might make it worth sitting up and taking notice. But most of the time rumors come down to just the one drunk who spins a good enough story that everyone starts repeating it, and that's not actually credible.
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Jun 27, 2023 23:43
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MikeC posted:This all may be just a ploy to keep the Russians honest and not strip the left bank of the Dnipro of all troops and I remain skeptical that the Ukranians would try a cross-river operation of any significance given the risks, but the possibility of that is no longer at zero I think. I kind of agree with this account that you try to establish presence on the islands in swamps to prevent shelling of Kherson but not much more than that: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1673076704393195520
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Jun 27, 2023 23:52
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OddObserver posted:Right, though even with this ---- well, Kommersant is about as close to respectable as remains in Russia, I can probably guess the Saudi's angle, but I don't know what sort of publication Al-Hadath is.... afaict Al-Hadath seems to be Fine, but also low calorie enough they could get schnookered (or leaned on)
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Jun 27, 2023 23:56
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Orthanc6 posted:Yeah this is full on good cop/bad cop Unless Luka new with confidence that Prigozhin would have fought back. It does seem as he said an uneasy peace is better than a war was the better decision.
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Jun 28, 2023 00:14
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I'd advocate for taking anything coming out of Syria with a heap of salt. I followed the civil war till 2020 and recommend waiting on Western media to corroborate things through an intelligence agency source or a eyewitness source for whom the reporter has known a long time. Even that Meduza article mentions it was not independently vetted outside that Saudi source. I'll warn you all; we may never get good corroboration on that story. Syria is an information blackhole.
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Jun 28, 2023 00:44
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When a military wants to build a pontoon bridge over a river can they only realistically do it if they know for sure the enemy has no artillery within range to blow up the bridge with? Or just hope that the bridge laying can be done in secret? Or just hope for the best?
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Jun 28, 2023 00:44
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WarpedLichen posted:I also can't believe Prigozhin left these fine folks out to dry: War in Ukraine CE: A serving FSB officer and two lightly armed furries
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Jun 28, 2023 01:16
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WarpedLichen posted:I kind of agree with this account that you try to establish presence on the islands in swamps to prevent shelling of Kherson but not much more than that: There's been some chatter about this being more than that recently. The people left on the Russian side, by some accounts, are little more than warm bodies not prepared for any real fighting. I think an actual attack across the river is too logistically complex for Ukraine but they can send excursions to see if anything develops.
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Jun 28, 2023 01:40
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Thank god none of the heavily armed furries showed up
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Jun 28, 2023 01:41
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Absurd Alhazred posted:War in Ukraine CE: A serving FSB officer and two lightly armed furries Imagine being a furry and thinking "The Wagner Group is surely the crowd that will accept me!"
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Jun 28, 2023 01:41
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Charliegrs posted:Imagine being a furry and thinking "The Wagner Group is surely the crowd that will accept me!" There is apparently a vibrant and thriving Nazi-Furry sub-community that the regular furries constantly have to uncover and drive out of spaces because they're constantly trying to integrate themselves as regulars. Everything I've heard reminds me a bit of the punk scene from when I was younger, which is honestly kind of crazy.
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Jun 28, 2023 01:50
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. Yes. They surpassed American deaths (in combat) in Vietnam a while ago. It's only been a year and change. Vietnam lasted 20 years. It's true the terrain and tactics are different but they're walking into bloodbaths and slowly losing all the territory they've conquered. On paper, Russia has all the men it needs. But at some point they're going to essentially run out of things made of metal, while Ukraine will never run out as long as NATO continues to supply her. Just look at the wagner rebellion taking out EWAR that they cannot replace in short order as a good example. Also you don't have attempted coups on your side when you're winning.
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Jun 28, 2023 01:51
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Charliegrs posted:When a military wants to build a pontoon bridge over a river can they only realistically do it if they know for sure the enemy has no artillery within range to blow up the bridge with? Or just hope that the bridge laying can be done in secret? Or just hope for the best? Constructing the bridge isn't really the main problem - there might be gaps in Russian surveillance of the river that would allow you enough time to do it or you could blanket everything in smoke for the duration. The problem is that the bridge needs to remain intact in order for you to supply any force capable of offensive operations. It would not remain intact. The more troops and vehicles you move to the other side the more critical the bridge becomes and the higher the risk that your forces are cut off and run out of fuel and bullets. It's a vulnerable failure point. I assume this is just to force Russia to redeploy some forces which I suppose was also the goal of the incursions into Russian territory around Belgorod.
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Jun 28, 2023 01:51
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. Your observation should hint you that in this thread 95% of the posts are just ukrainian propaganda. So if you really want to know the real situation of the war, stay far away from here (like I usually do) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 28, 2023 02:27
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Knightsoul posted:Your observation should hint you that in this thread 95% of the posts are just ukrainian propaganda. So if you really want to know the real situation of the war, stay far away from here (like I usually do) Well that's just not true though?
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Jun 28, 2023 02:39
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Knightsoul posted:Your observation should hint you that in this thread 95% of the posts are just ukrainian propaganda. So if you really want to know the real situation of the war, stay far away from here (like I usually do) Why do you think it's government propaganda and not earnest support?
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Jun 28, 2023 02:40
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This is a known anti-Ukrainian poster whose last post in this thread was praising Viktor Orban and claiming that Ukraine's military was decimated.
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Jun 28, 2023 02:42
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Bass.exe posted:Why do you think it's government propaganda and not earnest support? Speak for yourself, I get posting instructions from Zelensky personally every day
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Jun 28, 2023 02:46
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His last post period is apparently chortling about great racist Bersculoni quotes.
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Jun 28, 2023 02:47
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Knightsoul posted:Your observation should hint you that in this thread 95% of the posts are just ukrainian propaganda. So if you really want to know the real situation of the war, stay far away from here (like I usually do) Russia supposedly had the world's second best military, as in supposedly second only to the US. They were also the primary weapons manufacturer for every non-Western aligned country. They have a very long land border with Ukraine with no major geographic obstacles and could attack at any time and place of their choosing, including through Belarus. Ukraine didn't have any of the shiny western gear they've subsequently received. And yet the Russians weren't able to take over the country and were beaten back. Compared to what it supposedly was, the performance of the Russian army has been beyond pathetic. The fact that you think it's some kind of victory that they're barely holding off an offensive from the Ukrainian army is evidence that you've been steeped in far more propaganda than anyone in this thread.
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Jun 28, 2023 02:52
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Knightsoul posted:Your observation should hint you that in this thread 95% of the posts are just ukrainian propaganda. So if you really want to know the real situation of the war, stay far away from here (like I usually do) I get info from this thread because it avoids the galaxy-brained take of "Russia invading a non-NATO country for the stated reason of that country having no right to exist is NATO's fault" which is obviously nonsense. Can you believe some people think that Ukraine being near Russia gives Russia complete authority to decide what happens in Ukraine?
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Jun 28, 2023 02:56
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Absurd Alhazred posted:War in Ukraine CE: A serving FSB officer and two lightly armed furries
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Jun 28, 2023 03:03
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Too close to the old title imo
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Jun 28, 2023 03:06
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Knightsoul posted:Your observation should hint you that in this thread 95% of the posts are just ukrainian propaganda. So if you really want to know the real situation of the war, stay far away from here (like I usually do) Do you think Ukraine is a country and culture, or just some confused Russians? I hear Putin's army is taking volunteers. You could get all kinds of firsthand knowledge posting up in a trench!
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Jun 28, 2023 03:21
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. In addition to what others have said, "high end Western hardware" is over stating things. They're ultimately still getting (iirc) export versions of things, stockpiles of supplies and weapons that are still usable but are obsolete compared to currently deployed equipment, and dribs and drabs of other things like F-16s. And they're still beating the pants off of what was supposed to be the second best military in the world. Using Nato's leftovers. Not even the really good stuff. Russia has gone from second best in the world, to second best in Ukraine, and is potentially going to be second best in Russia. They're recruiting from prisons and drafting old men. There are constantly widely publicized examples of Russians surrendering, or trying to surrender, with Ukraine using entirely novel methods to help them. A large chunk of the army just marched on Moscow, and only stopped because they were getting embarrassingly close and didn't actually WANT to reach it. After this performance, I would actually be surprised if NATO members didn't actually decrease their military budgets.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:24
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Knightsoul posted:Your observation should hint you that in this thread 95% of the posts are just ukrainian propaganda. So if you really want to know the real situation of the war, stay far away from here (like I usually do) Knightsoul posted:I think we didn't see the real military russian power in action yet, and I hope we never will: as admitted by Gen. Cavoli, U.S. commander in Europe, the state of current russian military forces is very healthy. A lot here to think about! We need to open our eyes to new perspectives on this war (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 28, 2023 03:32
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I like how the stress of the war being so intense that the dictator's caterer nearly overthrew the government is apparently considered "holding your own". Because that is typically what happens when things are more or less going fine. Edit: Staluigi posted:A lot here to think about! We need to open our eyes to new perspectives on this war lol real 4D chess there. If they retreat all the way back to Russia then NATO won't see it coming when ... the war ends?
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Jun 28, 2023 03:34
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Highly intelligent of Russia to not advance too quickly and in fact actually lose ground in a shrewd move to not trigger NATO into direct action.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:37
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I would say Wagner declaring intent, and then doing a rebellion that took them outside the gates of Moscow where they were setting up artillery to siege the city with very light molestation is an objective hint towards the actual military readiness of not only Russia's air force but the rest of it's military and internal security. Hard to see how that's propaganda.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:41
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Staluigi posted:A lot here to think about! We need to open our eyes to new perspectives on this war Probably best to cool it with cross-forums post-mining. Not that you need to cross forums anyways, this dude parachutes in here every now and then to rant about how everyone in the West is brainwashed, how actually nobody in Italy actually WANTS this war and are forced into supporting it by their laptop leaders licking at Biden's heels, how the West is clearly losing and Russia is obviously winning, etc. etc. etc. Can't help but wonder if the dude was working for one of those Italian luxury brands with lots of Russian clients or something that the government tried to cut out an exemption for in sanctions early in the war.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:45
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I would say Wagner declaring intent, and then doing a rebellion that took them outside the gates of Moscow where they were setting up artillery to siege the city That never happened.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:51
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“Don’t see why not” https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/6/27/dont-see-why-not-china-envoy-on-backing-ukraines-91-borders A Chinese diplomat to the EU just backed 91 borders.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:52
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mlmp08 posted:That never happened. Well yeah, Wagner besieging or occupying Moscow is even more unbelievable than the small Russian northern column surrounding or occupying Kyiv. That was always such an incredible miscalculation, there simply weren't enough men for the job unless they really expected all resistance to drop on day one of the war.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:57
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There's a lot of subtlety with any political, social or economic issue. Ukraine has lots of corruption issues, the thread of events started with a popular revolution after all, and I'm sure there is a substantial amount of Russophobia causing horrible things we won't hear about in Ukraine over the last 1.5 years. But it is also possible for certain positions to be objectively true, and others to be objectively false. Russia invaded Ukraine to expand its empire. Any other reason Russia gives is an excuse to deliberately confuse people in both Russia and the rest of the world, because that confusion helps them in their attempt to get away with a blatant act of aggression. It is that simple. Their actions are hard evidence. For those that think otherwise, I understand how you might have arrived at that conclusion, but you need to realize you were lied to in several places along that train of thought. Look back at who told you what, and see who benefits from supporting Russia that pushed Russia's line at you. This is literally a "don't be on the wrong side of history" moment, Russia is committing both genocide and now ecocide against Ukrainians. There is no need for a devil's advocate, you do not and should not hand anything to them. Stonewall them and counter their message anywhere and everywhere you see it and deem it useful to fight on that hill.
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Jun 28, 2023 03:58
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. Yes they’re doing so badly that in just a year and a half they went from being renowned as the second best military in the world and probably the best if you only considered land forces to people being impressed that they haven’t been demolished by the Ukrainians who were not even in the top 20. There’s nothing impressive about the yankees making their game with the mud hens competitive
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Jun 28, 2023 03:58
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Nenonen posted:Well yeah, Wagner besieging or occupying Moscow is even more unbelievable than the small Russian northern column surrounding or occupying Kyiv. The pro-Russian twitter/telegram guys who held it as an article of faith that Kyiv was surrounded or cut off were mind-boggling. Just videos of journalists and Ukrainian troops driving around on major highways, and they were still convinced Russia has the city under siege.
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Jun 28, 2023 04:01
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Bar Ran Dun posted:“Don’t see why not” That seems to be coming on a bit strong - the specific question wasn't quoted but apparently what was asked was if China supports Kyiv's goals, to which the response was "I don't see why not." While "reclaiming '91 borders" might be IMPLIED in saying that you support Kyiv's goals, the article doesn't make it clear if the Chinese envoy knew that he was making that particular stance. Otherwise the rest of the envoy's statements are China's usual boilerplate: We respect the territorial integrity of all nations, we do not interfere in internal affairs, China is a force for peace and we think it would be better for everyone to discuss this at the negotiating table, etc. etc. In other words, China's standard mealy-mouthed nothingburgers that sound vaguely positive but don't commit to any specific actions or policies and generally avoids taking a strong position either way. Which makes sense, China coming down strong one way or another would have weird impacts on any future ambitions they have over Taiwan and they'd probably be happier to keep their mouth shut as long as possible until it all blows over.
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Jun 28, 2023 04:12
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html Did I miss this earlier or is it actually new? NYT, citing anonymous sources, says that Prigozhin had some senior military officials on his side (no surprise) but specifically points to Surovikin.
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Jun 28, 2023 04:14
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