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rivetz posted:[Nuking all of this out of concerns it might complicate things for subsequent trials] rip great post GJ you should be proud
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Jun 16, 2023 20:48
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More crazy-high North Atlantic ocean temp news. There's sea surface temp anomalies of 5C (!!!!) in the North Sea. ‘Unheard of’ marine heatwave off UK and Irish coasts poses serious threat https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/19/marine-heatwave-uk-irish-coasts-threat-oysters-fish-high-temperatures quote:“Heat, like on land, stresses marine organisms. In other parts of the world, we have seen several mass mortalities of marine plants and animals caused by ocean heatwave which have caused hundreds of millions of pounds of losses, in fisheries income, carbon storage, cultural values and habitat loss. As long as we are not dramatically cutting emissions, these heatwaves will continue to destroy our ecosystems. But as this is happening below the surface of the ocean, it will go unnoticed.”
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Jun 19, 2023 15:27
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I'm in Ireland and it's pretty dang humid. Nothing compared to large parts of North America, but I'm not used to being sticky and I don't like it 
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Jun 19, 2023 15:35
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Failed Imagineer posted:I'm in Ireland and it's pretty dang humid. Nothing compared to large parts of North America, but I'm not used to being sticky and I don't like it
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Jun 19, 2023 15:39
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I think that half the problem this thread has is the insurmountable disconnect between what we must do (command economy/other extremely rapid interventions to decarbonise asap) and what we can do (nothing) to prevent the coming climate apocalypse. So every time someone talks about what we must do, the people who are thinking about what we can do say "that's totally unrealistic nobody will ever accept that you will simply be overthrown/voted out/shot" and whenever someone talks about what we can do, people who are thinking about what we must do say to them "your doomerism is destroying any chance of success". Then we all end up shouting at each other and arguing because we're discussing very slightly different but very similar things. I don't have a solution to this problem, it's just an observation.
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Jun 19, 2023 15:45
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We must replace all other sources of power with nuclear (because per unit area, nothing comes close), remove hydro dams/coal/gas peakers, stop sheeting the world with photovoltaics and ugly windfarms, ban free standing homes, change everyone's diet to cassava and supplements, bring back the single child policy and expand outside China (and India who also had a go at that), ban consumption for anything other than just surviving (no need for music, sport or crazy space research - we all hate Elon anyways). It is not what we can do, but it is what we must and as a boring no-lifer, your quality of life is a sacrifice I'm willing to make. Less facetiously, I agree there is a bit of breakdown in train of thought between the two but I do think there is a fair bit of discussion on the best what MUST be done and best what CAN be done as well individually. For one a command economy has just been failure after failure for cropping (from Ukraine Holodomor to Sri Lankian banning of fertilizer to Mugabe's land redistribution).
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Jun 19, 2023 16:03
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Zimbabwe, really?
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Jun 19, 2023 16:12
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It may have been for the best of intentions, but Zimbabwe went from being a net exporter to a net importer of food due to the direct commands of the central government. Don't interpret that as saying that when-wes are anything but a bunch of arseholes though.
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Jun 19, 2023 18:12
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Electric Wrigglies posted:We must replace all other sources of power with nuclear (because per unit area, nothing comes close), remove hydro dams/coal/gas peakers, stop sheeting the world with photovoltaics and ugly windfarms, ban free standing homes, change everyone's diet to cassava and supplements, bring back the single child policy and expand outside China (and India who also had a go at that), ban consumption for anything other than just surviving (no need for music, sport or crazy space research - we all hate Elon anyways). Your life will not end if you eat beans instead of beef, I assure you (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 19, 2023 20:24
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Enjoy posted:Your life will not end if you eat beans instead of beef, I assure you But you have to convince the majority population to not riot if you make them eat beans instead of hamburgers.
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Jun 19, 2023 20:39
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The starting point for reducing meat consumption is getting rid of the subsidies on meat production.
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Jun 19, 2023 20:49
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Electric Wrigglies posted:
uh oh you said the s l words Sri Lanka isn't a command economy. It's actually a bit interesting as a nominally socialist state with some socialist-ish policies, or at least was before the economic apocalypse sucked all the air out of the room, but it's not a command economy. I get what you're trying to say, but terminology is important. Calling it a mixed or hybrid one isn't completely unreasonable (and in fact I've been wondering if eg the cspam marxism thread might have some thoughts about it). The (artificial) fertilizer ban is better understood as one of the more stupidly implemented responses to the covid-related collapse of tourism and remittances, and by extension foreign currency reserves. It's not even a stupid policy as such, a slower transition might make the country's agricuture significantly more self-sustaining. The Gotobaya Rajapaksa government just implemented it wholesale, instantaneously, with a not particularly competent team, when other elements of the agricultural system were collapsing or thinking about doing so. passable summary article: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Sri-Lanka-crisis/Sri-Lanka-aims-for-food-security-after-ill-fated-fertilizer-ban
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Jun 19, 2023 21:35
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Google Jeb Bush posted:uh oh you said the s l words Maybe not a command economy in the classic sense, but it is certainly an authoritarian adjacent, nationalist government that is run by a corrupt family that thinks it knows more than the experts. In that sense it does share the fundamental problem with command economies where disastrous policies can come about because agenda the agenda has to align with the political philosophy, not reality; where there is a lack of checks and balances and where yes men who are afraid to be the bearer of bad news surroune the elites. This is a simplification, but not by much.
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Jun 19, 2023 22:26
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Maybe not a command economy in the classic sense, but it is certainly an authoritarian adjacent, nationalist government that is run by a corrupt family that thinks it knows more than the experts. Well, not at the moment, Gotobaya ran away and Ranil Wickremasinghe's back in the saddle as a different corrupt rear end in a top hat that thinks he knows more than the experts.  Yeah you're right about the symptoms being close enough.The organic agriculture capitalist in the article is obviously tooting his own horn. I still think he's right about both A) a major shift to organic fertilizer could have been implemented more successfully, slower, and at a less disastrous time, and B) it's going to be politically impossible to make another attempt for A While because everyone's going to be a bit sore about the "hey the last time we tried this it collapsed the agricultural sector" thing. i actually met the guy once but outside of examining the individual arguments (in this case, in light of orgs with an interest in successfully implementing organic farming for less profit-driven reasons saying about the same things) that doesn't really qualify me to know whether he knows his poo poo or is just a charismatic bullshitter
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Jun 19, 2023 22:42
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https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1671603838770626563 I don't have much to add to this tweet, other than AAAAAHHHH!
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Jun 21, 2023 21:10
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Beginning to think that the orca stuff is them realizing who's making their water warmer and doing their part to fight climate change.
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Jun 21, 2023 21:26
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Maybe they're pissed about being displaced because of the massive sargassum bloom this year? https://www.floridarambler.com/environment/sargassum-seaweed-florida-beaches/
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Jun 21, 2023 21:44
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Apologies for the derail but I couldn't think of a better place to ask, since I think there are a few professional turbine touchers in the thread: I had a nice chat last weekend at a trade stand for a company near me that does agricultural wind turbine installation and maintenance - looks like they are looking for new entry level techs and have an office near me. Sounds like they recruit from a pretty broad pool, they mentioned car mechanics normally being a pretty good fit, and I explained that I have done lots in the film industry with camera stuff, lots of climbing when I worked as a tree surgeon a long time ago, and I'm doing an engineering degree online part-time. They train for all the working at heights and safety stuff, you just need to have an aptitude already. I think it'd be a cool job so I want to call them to follow up - can anyone give me pointers of what they are likely to ask about? I suck at electronics so if they ask how a synchonizer and load capacitors work I'm hosed, that sort of thing.
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Jun 22, 2023 11:54
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you probably want to crosspost this to the more active climate thread
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Jun 23, 2023 04:45
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Oh yeah. I do kind of like this one though, but thanks that’s a good tip. Wish me luck.
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Jun 23, 2023 13:06
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https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1672935159199584257?cxt=HHwWgsDShb3qurcuAAAA
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Jun 26, 2023 15:28
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It's going up, so what's the issue?
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Jun 26, 2023 17:27
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Four sigma variance! We are in new and uncharted territory.
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Jun 26, 2023 23:04
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Bar Ran Dun posted:So climate. That’s a complex system where we were in a nice meta-stable state before carbon emissions started up with industrialization. Right now it’s transitioning to another state. Epic post. I wanna add some follow-up. There's a self-referential class of complex systems that meet the following criteria: A) the system is capable of interpreting other systems from the intentional stance (attributing propositional attitudes to an agent, and using that model to predict behavior at better-than-chance), and B) the system's behavior can be interpreted from the intentional stance, affording predictive value and explanatory power. A human is one example of such a system. And this property is emergent - it would not make sense to attribute agency and beliefs and desires to the component parts that make up a human. There are complex meta-organisms made up of people and machines. Corporations, churches, governments, families, political parties, armies, etc. Often these systems satisfy the criteria outlined above, even when none of the component humans that make up the meta-organism explicitly hold the beliefs and desires that are usefully attributed to the meta-organism. That makes sense, yeah?
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Jun 28, 2023 02:21
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Uglycat posted:That makes sense, yeah? So there are three main types of controls open loop, feed forward, and feed back. Open loop is simple controls. Set the laundry for 60 minutes. There is no connection to the output or the feed. It shuts off at sixty minutes. Feed forward controls take a signal from the input before the control and uses that to adjust the control. Think of a fancy large building HVAC system , it might have a sensor on the outside telling the system the exterior state conditions and adjusting the control before the interior conditions are affected. These take a lot of math to make effectively. Feed back is a signal coming from the output and feeding that back into the control to adjust the output in the future. These are like a pneumatic control valve. They often produce outputs that are sinusoidal if they are under damped. Critically damped they approach the set point in a asymptotic way quickly. Over damped they approach the set point very slowly. Feedback loops are also basically this type of control. Climate change is driven by undamped feed back loops. Anyway brains are like a “black box” because they are unsolved and we don’t completely know what happens inside of them. But they exhibit all the types of controls. I have to eat. I have to poo poo. This is like open loop controls. Perception is a feed forward control I see a truck coming at me, I get out of the way. The feed foreword outputs into feed back loops. Thinking about what happened and adjusting behavior in the future to correct. I won’t step into traffic in the future. Anyway that’s what talk about consciousness as feed back loops is. And some of this thinking goes back to the thirties within cybernetics but apparently it’s now coming in terms of neuropsychology. Anyway to take this back to the much earlier post about stability… GM is basically an indication of the systems damping. Frequency of oscillation, the rolling period, can be used to determine GM on a vessel with unknown characteristics. So controls that are basically the same as PLC controls (basically digital pneumatic control valves) are possible for a black box that has feed back elements because the damping of a system can be inferred from its oscillation period.
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Jun 28, 2023 06:50
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Here's a summary of a new climate change survey: https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/06/us-public-wants-climate-change-dealt-with-but-doesnt-like-the-options/?comments=1&comments-page=1 tl;dr: "Do something!" and then "But not like that!!!!" the moment there's a perception that there might be any cost or inconvenience involved.
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Jun 29, 2023 13:50
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mobby_6kl posted:Here's a summary of a new climate change survey: https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/06/us-public-wants-climate-change-dealt-with-but-doesnt-like-the-options/?comments=1&comments-page=1 I wonder if there is an effective way to tell people that they're going to have to give up a lot of their current lifestyle in order to survive.
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Jun 29, 2023 14:16
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greatBigJerk posted:I wonder if there is an effective way to tell people that they're going to have to give up a lot of their current lifestyle in order to survive. I think we have an extensive emergency alert system in place to let them know of encroaching fires or other immediate events and those are the only ones that will be responded to, if any
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Jun 29, 2023 14:26
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greatBigJerk posted:I wonder if there is an effective way to tell people that they're going to have to give up a lot of their current lifestyle in order to survive. They will literally refuse to believe it. There are people in the local meteorologists Facebook feed arguing the wildfire smoke can’t possibly be coming from Canada because they know people who live on Quebec with clear blue skies and it must be a conspiracy to hide some local industrial accident/try and convince climate change deniers it’s real. I wish I were kidding.
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Jun 29, 2023 14:33
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greatBigJerk posted:I wonder if there is an effective way to tell people that they're going to have to give up a lot of their current lifestyle in order to survive. There were ration dodgers during WW2. People swapped license plates during the OPEC embargoes, even though that only allowed you to fill up on odd/even days...you were only inconvenienced *that* minutely (other than the super-long lines). For every person who will adapt and cooperate, there will be countless more who will see it as an attack on their GOD GIVEN RIGHT TO CONSUME.
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Jun 29, 2023 14:43
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The NYT has an uncharacteristically good article on flooding from Arkstorms in California, and the risk that such flooding could burst aging dams and cause a catastrophe (like hundreds of thousands of deaths). There was a close call a few years ago where the spillway at the Oroville dam started to erode (which could quickly lead to the earthen dam washing away). There seems to be a lot of complacency and fatalism surround the risk that enormous flooding events (made more likely by climate change) could cause. Notably, the Great Flood of 1862 has been pretty much memory-holed by officials. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/22/magazine/california-dams.html quote:Dale Cox, a former project manager at the United States Geological Survey who has worked extensively with Swain, told me that California’s dams are unprepared for extreme weather because state water authorities have a false sense of how bad flooding can get. “The peak of record is driving a lot of engineering decisions in the state,” he says, and that peak is an underestimate, maybe a gross one. “Already, we are seeing several 100-year floods every 10 years.” quote:By using the stable as a high-water mark for the American River, researchers were able to set the peak discharge of the river during the flood (n.b.: 1862 flood) at more than 300,000 cubic feet per second — greater than the median flow of the Mississippi River at St. Louis and far above the peak of record. On the day I was there, the American River was rolling along steadily at 1,000 c.f.s. quote:Without a detailed model of how the Arkstorm would translate into water levels within the state’s reservoirs, though, the authors of the report were left gesturing at a general calamity. “That was the outstanding missing piece,” says Christine Albano, a researcher at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., who worked with the Arkstorm team. quote:An aerial view of New Bullards Bar Dam, with the reservoir above and water coursing down its spillway and turning into a waterfall.
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Jun 30, 2023 16:57
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greatBigJerk posted:I wonder if there is an effective way to tell people that they're going to have to give up a lot of their current lifestyle in order to survive. Worked extremely well for masks during Covid, should definitely also well for this much less divisive issue that requires very little sacrifice
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Jul 3, 2023 09:52
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Soggy Muffin posted:Worked extremely well for masks during Covid, should definitely also well for this much less divisive issue that requires very little sacrifice In a future with less, less has to be more attractive and compelling than the more we have now. That’s not impossible. But it would required collective action and state action.
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Jul 3, 2023 22:19
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Consuming less does not have to mean a less fulfilling life. A lot of what we consume is absolute garbage and actively harmful to us. Reducing commuting will reduce fuel and car consumption but for most people would improve their life. If we only emphasize the negatives of course we will get more pushback from people not willing to give up anything to make the world livable for other people.
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Jul 3, 2023 23:22
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Exactly and the elimination or reduction or collectivization by mass transportation of commuting is a great example of a better future with less
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Jul 3, 2023 23:25
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"Consume less" will never be approved as official policy or implemented at scale because our entire economy is consumption based and economic growth is driven by consumption. We attach value to having things and getting our wants and needs met, and there's an entire apparatus that works to convince people that they want and need more, better, bigger things.
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Jul 4, 2023 05:40
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Adenoid Dan posted:Consuming less does not have to mean a less fulfilling life.
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Jul 4, 2023 06:04
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:"Consume less" will never be approved as official policy or implemented at scale because our entire economy is consumption based and economic growth is driven by consumption. We attach value to having things and getting our wants and needs met, and there's an entire apparatus that works to convince people that they want and need more, better, bigger things. But this still misses the point entirely. Consumption was nearly paused during the pandemic but emissions only fell a few percent. It's true that consumerism teaches us to buy, buy, buy, etc. but those things a inconsequential drop in the the bucket compared to actual needs like electricity or transportation.
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Jul 4, 2023 21:58
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:But this still misses the point entirely. Consumption was nearly paused during the pandemic but emissions only fell a few percent. It's true that consumerism teaches us to buy, buy, buy, etc. but those things a inconsequential drop in the the bucket compared to actual needs like electricity or transportation. Or food
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Jul 4, 2023 22:41
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Is there a go-to source for an up-to-date look at carbon capture technology and its viability in 2023?
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Jul 4, 2023 23:37
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