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fatherboxx)
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OddObserver posted:So, about as threatening as a pizzeria? Armchair general me thinks the risk-reward ratio is just so out of whack to seriously consider it. It isn't exactly the soft underbelly either. While Surovkin was in charge, the Russians fortified the interior of Kherson emphasizing the defense of key crossroads and paved routes all the way back towards the Crimea. So even if they build up enough mass to push across in a serious fashion, they are going to run into similar problems that they are running into right now assuming the Russians don't run out of men. Except on this front, they now have to protect any bridging assets so that they can actually supply a force on the east bank.
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Jul 1, 2023 15:00
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To be fair... posted:Have any of the telegram channels added substance to Prigozhn’s claims about 1000 Russian troop casualties a day in the counter offensive? I know he’s a liar and all that but curious if there was anything corroborating the claim. They're too high to be reasonable given the number of Russians in the area fighting.
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Jul 1, 2023 15:48
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saratoga posted:They're too high to be reasonable given the number of Russians in the area fighting. Really? 1000 casualties a day makes for ~250-350 KIA a day, which doesn't sound unreasonable based on what we've seen in this war so far.
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Jul 1, 2023 16:56
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Ynglaur posted:Really? 1000 casualties a day makes for ~250-350 KIA a day, which doesn't sound unreasonable based on what we've seen in this war so far. It's not about KIA, it's about cumulative casualties. It's a long front manned by relatively few people, something like 100-200 combat troops per kilometer while the fighting has been concentrated in relatively small areas, a few kilometers each. 1000 per day would have attrited the original defenders and be well through the reserves after weeks of fighting. We would see evidence of the line buckling and the surrounding front being stripped to plug the holes.
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Jul 1, 2023 17:45
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prigozhin said 'as much as a 1000 a day at times' I believe, not simply 1000 a day
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Jul 1, 2023 17:52
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I think that analysis neglects the depth of the battlefield. Even commercial drones can penetrate a few km behind the FLET, particularly if you use a comms relay drone. Military grade loitering munitions such as Switchblade can go a bit deeper. And nevermind artillery and rockets. Some of the assessments believe this is as much am ongoing artillery counter - battery fight as it is am infantry trench fight.
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Jul 1, 2023 18:45
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Ynglaur posted:I think that analysis neglects the depth of the battlefield. It does not. That's per kilometer over the entire depth. The front line trenches have a small fraction of that density.
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Jul 1, 2023 18:52
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1000 a day is a very large number and you should be asking for literally any kind of proof when people start throwing numbers like that around.
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Jul 1, 2023 18:57
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Herstory Begins Now posted:prigozhin said 'as much as a 1000 a day at times' I believe, not simply 1000 a day You really shouldn't believe anything Prigosjin have said or will say.
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Jul 1, 2023 19:15
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It's also what those daily reports of the Ukrainian MoD have been saying (which you absolutely shouldn't trust either) - so people with a reason to present absurdly inflated numbers
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Jul 1, 2023 19:24
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Ezra Klein did an interview with a Russia expert on his podcast who said western intelligence believes that shoigu and what's his face at the mod were supposed to be in rostov, and basically the coup failed as soon as it leaked. Prigozhin went anyway but Moscow was never supposed to be an objective. Have you heard this anywhere?
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Jul 1, 2023 19:55
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Arglebargle III posted:Ezra Klein did an interview with a Russia expert on his podcast who said western intelligence believes that shoigu and what's his face at the mod were supposed to be in rostov, and basically the coup failed as soon as it leaked. Prigozhin went anyway but Moscow was never supposed to be an objective. Yes, Shoigu and Gerasimov. It's been floated a lot over the week, makes sense, also it was supposedly Prigozhin's first request when he arrived at Rostov and met with the local commander to have them sent there for further negotiations, at that point it was obvious they wouldn't be captured by force.
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Jul 1, 2023 19:58
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Arglebargle III posted:Ezra Klein did an interview with a Russia expert on his podcast who said western intelligence believes that shoigu and what's his face at the mod were supposed to be in rostov, and basically the coup failed as soon as it leaked. Prigozhin went anyway but Moscow was never supposed to be an objective. supposedly the FSB found out 2 days prior and got them out of there. surprised putin bothered leaving moscow but he is a spineless coward so it makes sense.
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Jul 1, 2023 20:20
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Overdoze posted:Is there an up to date overview somewhere of how many tanks/artillery systems/whatnot the Russians have left? I see the daily updates on the number of losses they take, but have lost sight of how much of their total they have thrown away. The problem is we don't really know how many they started with. The Russians didn't publicize those numbers for pretty obvious reasons. There are rough numbers on how many were manufactured over the years, but many were sold or given away to other countries, and many were stored in open fields in Siberia where they were either looted for parts or rusted into oblivion. So for e.g. tanks the estimates I've seen vary so much they could either be running out right now or have thousands left still. Presumably NATO intelligence has a reasonable idea but they aren't telling either.
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Jul 1, 2023 20:20
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The fact that they knew Wagner was going to mutiny in advance and still flailed about digging holes in roads and not having anything other than a few helicopters to try and stop them makes them look even worse. If they had done nothing and afterwards it had come out they knew in advance he wasn't trying to take Moscow and/or overthrow Putin, just going on a joy ride for attention that would actually also make sense. But no, everybody still comes out of this looking so dumb.
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Jul 1, 2023 20:30
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Moon Slayer posted:The fact that they knew Wagner was going to mutiny in advance and still flailed about digging holes in roads and not having anything other than a few helicopters to try and stop them makes them look even worse. From the sounds of it, the original plan was to wait until Shoigu was supposed to be visiting Rostov, then capture him, and use him as a scapegoat for everything bad in the war and coincidentally avoid Wagner being disbanded. Sort of a highly armed version of going on strike. Instead, Shoigu got tipped off and was not in Rostov, Putin denounced Prigozhin and turned the strike into a coup attempt, and Wagner decided to go ahead and advance on Moscow ("What's the penalty for being late? And what's the penalty for rebelling?"). That seems to be where everyone started panicking.
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Jul 1, 2023 20:37
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LifeSunDeath posted:supposedly the FSB found out 2 days prior and got them out of there. surprised putin bothered leaving moscow but he is a spineless coward so it makes sense. To be clear, though, we don't actually KNOW for a fact that Putin left Moscow. What we DO know is that his plane left Moscow. Whether he was on it or not isn't known. I could go either way on it myself honestly, even if the FSB knew about this - Bremen's suggestion that Putin knew about the attempted coup on the MoD but was surprised when Prigozhin decided to escalate to a full coup could track with him not being prepared for and maybe panicking in the face of the march on Moscow. Hard to say for sure whether or not he was on the plane, but if he wasn't it was still kind of a bad look sending it out.
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Jul 1, 2023 20:48
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Tomn posted:To be clear, though, we don't actually KNOW for a fact that Putin left Moscow. What we DO know is that his plane left Moscow. Whether he was on it or not isn't known. I could go either way on it myself honestly, even if the FSB knew about this - Bremen's suggestion that Putin knew about the attempted coup on the MoD but was surprised when Prigozhin decided to escalate to a full coup could track with him not being prepared for and maybe panicking in the face of the march on Moscow. Hard to say for sure whether or not he was on the plane, but if he wasn't it was still kind of a bad look sending it out. Do we know if he was in Moscow to start with? I find it hard to imagine he'd decide to send his plane away if he was in Moscow.
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Jul 1, 2023 20:57
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EasilyConfused posted:Do we know if he was in Moscow to start with? I find it hard to imagine he'd decide to send his plane away if he was in Moscow. This assumes that he can only leave Moscow with that plane alone, or that it's impossible for his plane to come back to pick him up. Also by your logic if he WASN'T in Moscow, then he wouldn't send his plane to Moscow to begin with... (In fact if he doesn't want his whereabouts to be known by everyone, he should send his plane on decoy trips. A tip for Elon Musk!) Nenonen fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Jul 1, 2023 |
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Jul 1, 2023 21:07
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We know for a fact that lot of Moscow elite panicked and left. Putin wouldn't be any different tbh.
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Jul 1, 2023 21:11
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Nenonen posted:This assumes that he can only leave Moscow with that plane alone, or that it's impossible for his plane to come back to pick him up. Also by your logic if he WASN'T in Moscow, then he wouldn't send his plane to Moscow to begin with... Of course, he doesn't have to use the plane to leave, but if he was in Moscow and felt under threat, why make it more difficult on himself to leave? If he's not in Moscow, he's not in any danger, so it doesn't matter where his plane is.
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Jul 1, 2023 21:13
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Occam's razor was that Putin was on Putin's plane as it fled Moscow right as it seemed it was about to fall to an army of hardened mercenaries whom he had just declared traitors.
Morrow fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Jul 1, 2023 |
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Jul 1, 2023 21:25
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Morrow posted:Hanlon's razor was that Putin was on Putin's plane as it fled Moscow right as it seemed it was about to fall to an army of hardened mercenaries whom he had just declared traitors. Did you mean' Occam's Razor? What does malice have to do with this?
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Jul 1, 2023 21:29
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EasilyConfused posted:Did you mean' Occam's Razor? What does malice have to do with this? I confused the razors but you get my point.
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Jul 1, 2023 21:30
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Morrow posted:Hanlon's razor is I confused the razors.  Edit: Oh c'mon, don't edit out your good joke
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Jul 1, 2023 21:31
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Occam's razor is inapplicable here. We simply don't know enough to make solid assumptions. There just isn't enough information to make anything more than half assed guesses. Russian government owns more than one aircraft that could carry Putin (it would be problematic if they didn't, planes need a lot of maintenance time).
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Jul 1, 2023 21:52
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Is "Putin fled Moscow ahead of Wagner's advance" even getting any play in Russian language social media (obviously official media wouldn't say anything like that)?
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Jul 1, 2023 22:02
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The vaguely plausible explanation for Putin's plane leaving Moscow without him is he wanted to get his family out. I still highly suspect he was on it because if he did stay in Moscow I think he would have made sure to be more visible about it, but the plane itself isn't really proof.
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Jul 1, 2023 22:10
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Doest Putin have a wife or mistress or some kids or something? It's also possible he sent them and stayed himself. That being said I still lean towards it being him who fled.
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Jul 1, 2023 22:13
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D-Pad posted:Doest Putin have a wife or mistress or some kids or something? It's also possible he sent them and stayed himself. Putin has an ex-wife and, reportedly, several mistresses and kids, and a couple grandkids. It's unlikely he would put any of them on an escape plane over himself.
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Jul 1, 2023 22:29
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Moon Slayer posted:Is "Putin fled Moscow ahead of Wagner's advance" even getting any play in Russian language social media (obviously official media wouldn't say anything like that)? Yeah, everyone saw flightradar tracking and later abscence of Putin from negotiations didnt help either.
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Jul 1, 2023 22:30
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So basically in the end it doesn't really matter if Putin fled or not; his plane was seen leaving and the tsar was nowhere to be found, even for a short comment before diving into his armageddon bunker.
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Jul 1, 2023 22:38
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fatherboxx posted:Yeah, everyone saw flightradar tracking and later abscence of Putin from negotiations didnt help either. Good.
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Jul 1, 2023 22:53
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There were later reports that he was attending a party in St. Petersburg (red sails, IIRC?)
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Jul 1, 2023 22:58
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OddObserver posted:There were later reports that he was attending a party in St. Petersburg (red sails, IIRC?) Yeah, but again it's hard to ascertain those claims. The tracking info ended around Tver, and there were claims that he went to one of his favourite dachas near it. The flight path from Moscow to St. Petersburg aligns with Tver, so either version is plausible. But there are no reports of anyone seeing him in any of those places afaik. Which again doesn't mean anything because he could have landed at the airport and taken helicopter from there. And we still don't know if he was aboard that plane. It might even have taken off, turned off its transponder, and returned to Moscow. 
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Jul 1, 2023 23:23
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OddObserver posted:There were later reports that he was attending a party in St. Petersburg (red sails, IIRC?) We got the same news here, at least he was supposed to make an appearance there. But still didn't give any comment on time so it really doesn't matter where he was or went, Putin was missing and/or not in Moscow at the time, and someone left on the presidential plane as it does not fly itself.
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Jul 1, 2023 23:23
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I assumed that the Russians would have destroyed these Bradleys by now if they'd been unable to capture them, but apparently not. Now Ukraine has pushed forward far enough to recover them, according to this series of tweets https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1675258473733300224 Chalks fucked around with this message at 23:45 on Jul 1, 2023 |
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Jul 1, 2023 23:43
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Der Kyhe posted:someone left on the presidential plane as it does not fly itself. I kinda doubt Putin personally flies his presidential jet, to be honest. But yeah, whether he was on the plane or not and whether or not he had a good reason to send it out without being on it, wasn't a good look. Incidentally, it's an utterly unanswerable question but I wonder how Putin's psychology was affected by Wagner's march? Whether he fled or not seeing a near-coup happen and the potential ruination of your life's work in one short, sudden moment of extreme violence has to leave a mark. If there's anybody left who was there and hadn't gone out a window by the end of the war and Putin's presidency there could be some very interesting memoirs about the events around this time - I suspect we'll find in retrospect that Putin's decision-making will probably be taking a sharp turn somehow, though in what direction it's impossible to say.
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Jul 1, 2023 23:46
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Chalks posted:I assumed that the Russians would have destroyed those Bradleys by now if they'd been unable to capture them, but apparently not. Now Ukraine has pushed forward far enough to recover them, according to this series of tweets That uh... Says something about Russia's abilities to control the area if they can't send a tractor past the main defensive line for a few hours
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Jul 1, 2023 23:48
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DarklyDreaming posted:That uh... Says something about Russia's abilities to control the area if they can't send a tractor past the main defensive line for a few hours Never mind capturing them, but leaving them in a salvageable condition. All you would need is an artillery mission or one brave guy with a bag of grenades. Then again, we don't know why they needed recovery and what the tactical situation in the area was like. It could be an area where Russians have retreated from but there are still uncleared mines. Russians might have been unaware of this happening.
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Jul 2, 2023 00:01
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