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bulletsponge13 posted:Am I the only one who doubts Russian nuke capabilities? No. But the risk calculus doesn't allow us to operationalize those doubts.
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Jul 3, 2023 14:36
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Jarmak posted:There's nothing about MAD that says an attack on troops playing extraterritorial imperial gently caress gently caress games necessitates a nuclear response. So you're saying that soviet submarines sinking a few carriers in the gulf of Tonkin in 1968 would've been a great idea since MAD doesn't cover that?
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Jul 3, 2023 14:44
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Infidelicious posted:So you're saying that soviet submarines sinking a few carriers in the gulf of Tonkin in 1968 would've been a great idea since MAD doesn't cover that? No that's not what I loving said was it.
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Jul 3, 2023 14:53
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Carth Dookie posted:The lesson should be that nevermind "what if meltdown" but the fact that they are a huge loving target in any terrorist action or war and a huge national vulnerability so really don't build them unless you have no other option. I’ve seen that same argument against building a space elevator. Not that it’s the only thing holding that up.
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Jul 3, 2023 14:59
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bulletsponge13 posted:Am I the only one who doubts Russian nuke capabilities? Absolutely not, it most definitely isn't the reported six to eight thousand usable warheads between the different delivery platforms. My guesstimate right now is its probably "few hundred of warheads that work" dwindling down. But its not zero and nobody wants to find out who guessed closest to the real number.
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Jul 3, 2023 15:35
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All cards are bad because they have counters, all infrastructure is bad because they're a target.
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Jul 3, 2023 15:39
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bulletsponge13 posted:Am I the only one who doubts Russian nuke capabilities? If it requires maintenance then doubts should be added as standard. The actual nuclear material degrades and gives a lower yield over time and i think it's either tritium or deuterium that has to be kept up to spec on the weapons as well... not even considering the actual rocket & propellent. 
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Jul 3, 2023 15:44
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A.o.D. posted:All cards are bad because they have counters, all infrastructure is bad because they're a target. All people are bad because they think!
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Jul 3, 2023 15:45
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Icon Of Sin posted:Nuclear fire won’t be enough to cleanse the taint that curses the land where Fayetteville and Jacksonville, NC both sit 
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Jul 3, 2023 15:59
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Cimber posted:That map is pretty drat old. For example, they have the Burlington VT area targeted in a limited engagement to take out Plattsburgh Air Force Base. Which closed in 1995 and is now a civilian facility. A civilian facility. Sounds the average Russian target.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:05
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Crab Dad posted:A civilian facility. If you put a cross or a white flag on the roof, they will alpha strike it and avoid every other military targets.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:09
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The thing I don’t get about that map is that the counter-force (2k) strike doesn’t have many of the cold war SAC B-52 bases. I think the counter value triangle icons are just population centers.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:13
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Murgos posted:Nope. We all stopped what we were doing and watched it on TV. The UK's a shithole of apathy when it comes to politics, but when parliament was closed by the government with the clear intent of unconstitutionally bypassing parliamentary supremacy there were protests all over the country immediately and from all social demographics, in the middle of a work day. From the Socialist Workers to City of London bankers. People didn't wait to see what was next or how it was playing out, they immediately went to the streets to say no. The crowds could have taken Downing Street if they'd wanted to. Which is what you need when you see a coup on TV. People on the streets showing mass support for the rule of law and constitutional authority. At the Capital the mob were literally one wrong turn from making it to the Vice President and Senators while the DC NG troops were held back by sympathetic/complicit Generals. That it fizzled out is much more to do with poor planning and luck rather than timely response by the proper authorities. The comparison is a little apples and oranges, but at its core I think it's sound. Having immediate popular protests would have been useful had the plotters been a little bit more competent, because it motivates and reinforces the will of those within the military/police who can resist to do so. It's an action that can be taken by normal people to delay or prevent a fait accompli victory for the plotters. And in the event that the coup fails it functions as a statement to future plots that people will not take it quietly. Fivemarks posted:I, for one, don't particularly believe that the Russian Nuclear Stockpile is in a usable state. I think its high time that we stop letting the threat of nuclear war be used to justify "We should let Putin/tinpot dictator of the week do what he wants and do whatever genocide they want." While having doubts about the operational viability of the RF nuclear stockpile as a whole is somewhat rational and reasonable given the state of the rest of their military, your opinion is one that you shouldn't share with adults in real life. Because people will look at you the same way they look at a kid who thinks Naruto running is real. It will be awkward.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:20
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You're debating that the function of mad is not to make any direct conflict risk reward calculus unacceptable. When it's the entire point.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:23
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At this point we can assume the dead hand is powered by a rusty car battery and operated by one of those little drippy birds.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:26
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:The UK's a shithole of apathy when it comes to politics, but when parliament was closed by the government with the clear intent of unconstitutionally bypassing parliamentary supremacy there were protests all over the country immediately and from all social demographics, in the middle of a work day. From the Socialist Workers to City of London bankers. People didn't wait to see what was next or how it was playing out, they immediately went to the streets to say no. This is wrong. It didn't make international news, but there were banners and signs hanging all over the DC area telling Trump to get the gently caress out. Like literally one on I-95 in MD said "GET THE gently caress OUT, LOSER". If Trump had tried to stay in office - whether by just refusing to leave or by pulling some alternate elector poo poo - people would have absolutely flooded DC and massively dwarfed the number of J6 insurrections. Everyone that I knew at the time was already planning to drop everything they were doing and go. And I'm not just talking about politically involved people. I'm talking about folks who had never been at a protest or even really paid attention to much beyond checking their Google News feed. But Congress certified the election and Trump left office. psydude fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Jul 3, 2023 |
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Jul 3, 2023 16:32
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:The UK's a shithole of apathy when it comes to politics, but when parliament was closed by the government with the clear intent of unconstitutionally bypassing parliamentary supremacy there were protests all over the country immediately and from all social demographics, in the middle of a work day. From the Socialist Workers to City of London bankers. People didn't wait to see what was next or how it was playing out, they immediately went to the streets to say no. Many organizations discouraged counter protests on J6 due to false flag fears and told people to stay home.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:53
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:While having doubts about the operational viability of the RF nuclear stockpile as a whole is somewhat rational and reasonable given the state of the rest of their military, your opinion is one that you shouldn't share with adults in real life. Because people will look at you the same way they look at a kid who thinks Naruto running is real. It will be awkward. Let the world die in a pyre of nuclear hellfire, if that is what it takes to do the right thing. If modern civilization requires that we sit back and let genocides and war crimes happen because "We can't stop them because the perpetrator might throw a nuclear temper tantrum," then modern civilization deserves to die.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:06
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Fivemarks posted:Let the world die in a pyre of nuclear hellfire, if that is what it takes to do the right thing. If modern civilization requires that we sit back and let genocides and war crimes happen because "We can't stop them because the perpetrator might throw a nuclear temper tantrum," then modern civilization deserves to die.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:08
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Fivemarks posted:Let the world die in a pyre of nuclear hellfire, if that is what it takes to do the right thing. If modern civilization requires that we sit back and let genocides and war crimes happen because "We can't stop them because the perpetrator might throw a nuclear temper tantrum," then modern civilization deserves to die.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:13
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That map spares college towns like Bloomington Indiana, State College Pennsylvania, and Oxford Mississippi. What kind of civilization would emerge from a bunch of academics surrounded by toxic nuclear waste?
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Jul 3, 2023 17:23
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Russian doctrine explicitly states that nuclear weapons will be used if Russian territory is invaded by a foreign power. Any NATO intervention (air defense suppression for example) is by default an invasion of Russia by a foreign power. Whether or not you think such a nuclear exchange can be restricted to Ukraine for more than ten minutes depends on your confidence in decision makers to make rational decisions under extreme stress very quickly. There's actually a VR simulation that was developed that shows exactly what stress that entails: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/dec/14/vr-game-simulating-nuclear-attack-tests-decision-making-skills quote:As soon as I took a seat, a voice in my headset started to tell me the situation. Early warning sensors had detected the launch of 299 missiles in Russia which were thought, with high confidence, to be heading for the US mainland and most likely, the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in the north-west. An estimated 2 million Americans would be killed. While this was being explained, another voice – this time a secret service officer – was telling me helicopters were on the way to evacuate me.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:30
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in a well actually posted:The thing I don’t get about that map is that the counter-force (2k) strike doesn’t have many of the cold war SAC B-52 bases. iirc that countervalue target group also includes major river crossings, ports and dams, it's just that a lot of those are conveniently colocated with population centers. e: plus it's hard to tell what those triangles are centered on when they're bigger than Rhode Island pygmy tyrant fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Jul 3, 2023 |
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Jul 3, 2023 17:31
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The X-man cometh posted:That map spares college towns like Bloomington Indiana, State College Pennsylvania, and Oxford Mississippi. Well, if it’s a high value target list it is clear why they’re not targeted.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:41
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Fivemarks posted:Let the world die in a pyre of nuclear hellfire, if that is what it takes to do the right thing. If modern civilization requires that we sit back and let genocides and war crimes happen because "We can't stop them because the perpetrator might throw a nuclear temper tantrum," then modern civilization deserves to die.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:56
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That map doesn't even have Whiteman AFB on it. Even if it was put out before the B-2's were there it had an ICBM command wing at it and there were silos all around central Missouri so it would have 100% been a target.
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Jul 3, 2023 18:03
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Fivemarks posted:Let the world die in a pyre of nuclear hellfire, if that is what it takes to do the right thing. This is a joke, right?
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Jul 3, 2023 18:11
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Hasn't that map been posted in the current events thread before and people determined it was just a list of population centers and maybe a couple of military bases sprinkled in?
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Jul 3, 2023 18:13
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Dolash posted:This is a joke, right? Not in the slightest. Why would you think "Do the right thing, regardless of the consequences" is a joke?
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Jul 3, 2023 18:14
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Fivemarks posted:Not in the slightest. Why would you think "Do the right thing, regardless of the consequences" is a joke? Probably because if the right thing knowingly leads to the destruction of the entire world, it's inherently not the right thing? Try explaining to the vast majority of people around the world just trying to get by that because of events very far from them that they have no power over and barely any knowledge of, they all need to die.
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Jul 3, 2023 18:28
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Jul 3, 2023 18:29
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Dolash posted:Probably because if the right thing knowingly leads to the destruction of the entire world, it's inherently not the right thing? Try explaining to the vast majority of people around the world just trying to get by that because of events very far from them that they have no power over and barely any knowledge of, they all need to die. Right or wrong isn't determined by popularity.
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Jul 3, 2023 18:30
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Fivemarks posted:Right or wrong isn't determined by popularity. It was mainly meant as an exercise to help you imagine the vast majority of people out there uninvolved in the conflict who'd be killed by the decision. Deciding to put yourself or people you represent into harm's way for the right thing is very different than deciding to involve everyone, everywhere, mainly as collateral damage.
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Jul 3, 2023 18:35
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Crab Dad posted:A civilian facility. If it still has a nice big runway suitable for bombers or executive transports it probably gets a RV or two flipped at it.
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Jul 3, 2023 18:44
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:bonus is that they take out florida too! love how the threat modellers for the 2000 warhead scenario had already run out of obvious targets and just went "uhhhh... mark all the big power plants and IDK just dump the other 1200 on the silo fields"
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Jul 3, 2023 18:46
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Midjack posted:If it still has a nice big runway suitable for bombers or executive transports it probably gets a RV or two flipped at it. Intercontinental Ballistic Winnebagos
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Jul 3, 2023 18:51
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Fivemarks posted:Right or wrong isn't determined by popularity. Let me help you here: It's very kind of you to unilaterally decide that billions of people uninvolved in this conflict should perish to satisfy your moral purity test. Morality isn't an absolute. Raerlynn fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Jul 3, 2023 |
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Jul 3, 2023 18:52
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Dolash posted:It was mainly meant as an exercise to help you imagine the vast majority of people out there uninvolved in the conflict who'd be killed by the decision. Deciding to put yourself or people you represent into harm's way for the right thing is very different than deciding to involve everyone, everywhere, mainly as collateral damage. Hail SS-18 Satan, may his passing cleanse the earth
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Jul 3, 2023 18:55
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If you accept that we can't fight Russia because they have nuclear weapons than you are both a coward and a fool. If you don't stop them then the whole international order falls apart. This has already been a nightmare for nuclear disarmament efforts.
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Jul 3, 2023 19:02
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Its better to stand with your principles and support Ukraine, rather than give them up because a jumped up schoolyard bully is threatening you.
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Jul 3, 2023 19:06
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