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fatherboxx)
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I mean, they did it with the dam. And IIRC there were plenty of reports of the drat being mined and nothing happened until it did. Your guess in the validity of the claim is as good as mine, but it's not like Russian hasn't already causes a massive humanitarian and ecological nightmare seemingly just for the sake of loving Ukraine up.
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Jul 4, 2023 21:55
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Szmitten posted:I've seen what seems to be the same story reported every day without much mention from other sources or credible talk from other nations or this thread so I was half-assuming there's nothing to back it up, that it won't be an international disaster, or nobody can do anything until a quantifiable thing happens (and that said quantifiable thing won't be Chernobyl 2.0 anyway). But I'm also an idiot. Same. It seems different this time around, imo. More talk and movement from the Russian side. Hopefully it amounts to nothing.
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Jul 4, 2023 22:16
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How bad of a meltdown could happen from blowing up the Zaporizia nuclear plant? I've heard that only one reactor was still active in a low power state so I'm guessing it wouldn't be anywhere near a Chernobyl level event?
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Jul 4, 2023 22:44
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Charliegrs posted:How bad of a meltdown could happen from blowing up the Zaporizia nuclear plant? I've heard that only one reactor was still active in a low power state so I'm guessing it wouldn't be anywhere near a Chernobyl level event? The actual cores are surrounded by a couple feet of reinforced concrete. They're not going anywhere. There's not going to be any meltdown.
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Jul 4, 2023 22:46
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DarklyDreaming posted:The inverse of that Soviet bomber in WW2 that ran out of bombs so they just tied a bunch of SMGs together and pointed them downward Actually it was a Soviet project on strafing trains. The SMGs were loaded with oversized drums full of incendiary tracer ammo. It was never actually used outside of tests because the plane basically had to get down close to the train and by the time someone had the idea and made it into reality the German trains were loaded with AA emplacements. Soviets went "Cool idea, would have been great if we thought it up a few years earlier: dropping bombs on the rails is just cheaper and more practical now"
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Jul 4, 2023 22:49
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The X-man cometh posted:Ads on fox news, newsmax and right wing radio are full of quack medical devices. And their audience are fascist pro-russians too. The other category is Personal Security (identity protection, home security systems, privacy boosted Internet services), which appeals to AND promotes the fascist belief that Bad People are out to get you. Fake edit yeah how many shots does an AK have per magazine? Also can AKs take drum mags?
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Jul 4, 2023 22:50
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Alkydere posted:Actually it was a Soviet project on strafing trains. The SMGs were loaded with oversized drums full of incendiary tracer ammo. It was never actually used outside of tests because the plane basically had to get down close to the train and by the time someone had the idea and made it into reality the German trains were loaded with AA emplacements. Soviets went "Cool idea, would have been great if we thought it up a few years earlier: dropping bombs on the rails is just cheaper and more practical now" Good to know thanks
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Jul 4, 2023 22:52
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Here is IAEA https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-170-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine quote:Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost the connection to its main external power line early this morning, forcing it to rely on recently restored back-up power supplies for the electricity it needs for essential nuclear safety and security functions, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.
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Jul 4, 2023 22:54
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The version of "strafing" in this war is pulling back on the stick and launching a volley of unguided rockets on a ballistic arc from kilometers away. It's probably about as accurate as doing it with machine guns in WWII and safer for the aircraft.
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Jul 4, 2023 22:55
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ummel posted:Same. It seems different this time around, imo. More talk and movement from the Russian side. Hopefully it amounts to nothing. Zelenskyy gave mention of peculiar movement and "objects resembling explosives" being placed around ZNPP based on his intelligence sources. I don't want to stir the pot with the real politiks discussion and will just say I don't know what to think. You're right in that it is different than the earlier power supply issues. Mods, where's are boundaries with this and useless clancychat? I imagine this will become the leading discussion point for the next 24 hours.
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Jul 4, 2023 23:40
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If worst case happens you'd just see any and all aid greenlit and nothing more is my bet. Flood Ukraine with as much as they conceivably use now while scrambling some form of response force.
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Jul 4, 2023 23:42
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RockWhisperer posted:Mods, where's are boundaries with this and useless clancychat? I imagine this will become the leading discussion point for the next 24 hours. As usual, dont fantasize about scenarios where NATO directly intervenes. Regarding sources, it would be a good idea to stick to official ones (like official statements by Zelensky, Ukrainian military intelligence, IAEA, other countries officials).
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Jul 4, 2023 23:47
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zapo direction heating up and russians believe ukraine is concentrating troops there for a significant push so if the npp were to have an exceptionally timely 'accident' of a similar sort as the khakhovka pp, the most opportune time for that (from russian pov) would likely be as soon as they feel that Ukraine has committed to the fight. who knows if it will happen, ukraine messaging is clearly trying to get out ahead of it so they aren't left trying to both shape a narrative and deal with a nuclear disaster at the same time. i certainly have no more idea what russia will do than anyone else, but it's hard to rule that out as a possibility if they were sufficiently desperate and believed that it would halt a potential ukrainian breakthrough.
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Jul 5, 2023 00:02
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RockWhisperer posted:Zelenskyy gave mention of peculiar movement and "objects resembling explosives" being placed around ZNPP based on his intelligence sources. I don't want to stir the pot with the real politiks discussion and will just say I don't know what to think. You're right in that it is different than the earlier power supply issues. TASS put out a statement from someone affiliated with the Russian nuclear agency saying that the Ukrainians plan to attack the plant on the 5th, which is not a great sign (in a "oh hey look this cover story thing we floated definitely happened like we said" sense)
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Jul 5, 2023 00:49
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Vaginaface posted:The other category is Personal Security (identity protection, home security systems, privacy boosted Internet services), which appeals to AND promotes the fascist belief that Bad People are out to get you. 30 in a regular mag, 45 in the RPK-74 extended mag (as featured on the AAAK). There are Russian and Chinese AK-74 drum mags, but they are rare compared to the 45 rounder.
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Jul 5, 2023 00:50
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ChaseSP posted:If worst case happens you'd just see any and all aid greenlit and nothing more is my bet. Flood Ukraine with as much as they conceivably use now while scrambling some form of response force. I don't know about that https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1672081648089985024 quote:Clarity by U.S. political leaders. If Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon or causes a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, there will be "dire consequences"...the Russian military "will be destroyed"...NATO Article 5, TY
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Jul 5, 2023 01:19
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Charlz Guybon posted:I don't know about that So when some Senators say this is it the same thing as the official position of the Whitehouse? Or are they just talking out their asses and people only care because they are Senators? Graham in particular is a crazy warmonger and always says poo poo like this.
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Jul 5, 2023 01:30
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Charliegrs posted:Graham in particular is a crazy warmonger and always says poo poo like this. I think you answered your question. It does signal some level of support if the executive leadership pushed for a reaction or whatever, but it does not signal any kind of WH or State Dept or DoD policy. In the text of the statement, the senators say pretty explicitly that the administration will speak for itself, but they support a hard line if Russia chooses to escalate to nuclear attack or an attributable nuclear incident.
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Jul 5, 2023 01:38
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Charliegrs posted:So when some Senators say this is it the same thing as the official position of the Whitehouse? No.
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Jul 5, 2023 01:39
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Charliegrs posted:So when some Senators say this is it the same thing as the official position of the Whitehouse? Or are they just talking out their asses and people only care because they are Senators? Graham in particular is a crazy warmonger and always says poo poo like this. They're just talking out of their asses. Foreign policy is the province of the White House. Biden and the other heads of NATO states will decide what NATO does, not a couple of loud-mouth senators.
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Jul 5, 2023 01:39
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Yeah, when it’s not even their party in the White House, I don’t think their statement is an official position. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they had permission to announce that in order to generate a certain doubt in Putin’s mind that they might be accurately describing Biden’s position, without directly threatening NATO joining the war through an official channel. That kind of “is it a message?” messaging is common in diplomacy, and the unclear nature is part of the point.
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Jul 5, 2023 01:41
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Blumenthal is a Democrat.
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Jul 5, 2023 02:11
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If and I think that is a big if Putin causes a nuclear disaster and/or uses a nuke I think that would be the coverage to cause NATO to get directly involved. You would likely see air coverage in Ukraine itself at the very least. Putin no doubt knows that would be end of his games in Ukraine if not the end of Russia as we know it. He can’t handle a couple thousand guys and a handful of trucks and armor. The full force of NATO coming down on him likely in a matter of hours will be it.
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Jul 5, 2023 02:26
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Somaen posted:Aren't you an american, the country of nazi militias and donald trump? America (and by extension, American tax-payers) is by far the provider of the most funding to Ukraine. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/  It therefore behooves staunch supporters of Ukraine to be respectful towards and appreciative of America and Americans, and thereby emulate the example of Ukraine's President and stalwart leader Zelenskyy: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1676217262288535559?s=20 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 5, 2023 02:36
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Can we still report people for JAQ and disingenuous posting, then? Because this was a very strange development from "wow, I sure do wonder why my American friends are so excited about Ukraine" to "why are people being mean to this specific theory of international relations that incidentally is trumpeted by anglophone pro-Russians?" Yeah, this. They're not fooling anyone, but it's irritating and derailing (which may well be the point itself).
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Jul 5, 2023 05:17
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From the Guardian's live feed: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f089742d8258afdquote:Counteroffensive ‘particularly fruitful’ in recent days
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Jul 5, 2023 05:43
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Paladinus posted:- Dick pills and magnetic dick healing devices are prominently advertised on every channel now. Apparently, Viagra is no longer available in Russia, so maybe this has something to do with that. Definitely a huge uptick in those. "magnetic dick healing device" is a fantastic name for a band.
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Jul 5, 2023 06:57
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mlmp08 posted:I think you answered your question. It does signal some level of support if the executive leadership pushed for a reaction or whatever, but it does not signal any kind of WH or State Dept or DoD policy. Yeah it's mostly exactly what it appears to be. Most notable thing there is that 1) Graham is extremely a bellwether as opposed to someone who sets policy and 2) that's a notably bipartisan appearance to make a very straight forward statement, which is noteworthy in its own right. Djarum posted:If and I think that is a big if Putin causes a nuclear disaster and/or uses a nuke I think that would be the coverage to cause NATO to get directly involved. You would likely see air coverage in Ukraine itself at the very least. yeah if he uses a nuclear weapon or blows up ZNPP god only knows what is on the table. I'm not saying that means nuclear war, just that the messaging for quite a while now has been increasingly that there would be a major conventional response. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Jul 5, 2023 |
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Jul 5, 2023 07:20
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I remember near the beginning of all this when I was pissing people off by constantly insisting putin was 100% going to invade and then lose and it turned into a thing about whether another nation would send their army in to fight russia And my take was something like "nah not unless russia blows up a nuke plant or something"
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Jul 5, 2023 08:15
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Well stop it then.
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Jul 5, 2023 08:25
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Staluigi posted:I remember near the beginning of all this when I was pissing people off by constantly insisting putin was 100% going to invade and then lose and it turned into a thing about whether another nation would send their army in to fight russia Is that you Vladimir Vladimirovič? Bad form to start a war for forum clout
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Jul 5, 2023 09:07
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https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1676278761342345216 While Thomas Theiner is definitely on the optimistic side of OSINT analysts, he's also been fairly realistic in terms of expectations and timing. That is, his optimism is mostly in the long-term, and his adjectives tend to be more grandiose than the specifics of his predictions. At any rate, this is a good thread for anyone wondering why the Ukrainian offensive seems to be taking as long as it is, what it might mean, etc. Personally, I'd call the current phase "Phase 2", or I'd add a "Phase 0" to his model to reflect shaping operations prior to the current broad-based attritional, pressuring fight, but it's a decent analysis. I'd note, too, that Ukraine is in some ways out-Sovieting the Russians. Part of the Red Army's doctrine was to launch offensives on very broad fronts, and use that to identify a weak point, and then slam that weak point with a heavy force. https://www.ft.com/content/c5ce76df-9b1b-4dfc-a619-07da1d40cbd3 I'll risk the probe for Clancychat since it's the Financial Times doing Clancychat. They don't cite sources (for obvious reasons), but if true this is pretty significant. I think we've suspected this for a while but I haven't seen it reported in the past year-and-a-half: apparently the US, UK, and France told Russia very directly that if Russia used tactical nuclear weapons then NATO would hit Russian forces directly with conventional weapons. That's kind of a big deal. (And yes, FT kind of buried the lede.) Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 12:58 on Jul 5, 2023 |
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Jul 5, 2023 12:53
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Russian investigators from Dossier have managed to find documentation about Putin's famous train that he uses to travel to his Valdai residence on a secret railroad https://dossier.center/inside-train/ https://twitter.com/alburov/status/1676580227193896960?t=oE3ddza5YtmxWFrKPPW3Hw&s=19 Apparently in that Kim Jong Il cosplay they went hog wild on candles and sauna cars but skimmed on secure communications and armor quote:In the photo you can see several radio receivers "Ryabina-M", satellite communication stations R-439 "Legend-2" , a complex of channel-forming equipment "Azur" and a radio relay station "Azid". This equipment is in service of the army since 1980s. The Dossier's interlocutor, who has worked with this equipment, describes it as obsolete and frequently breaking down.
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Jul 5, 2023 14:49
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I feel like traveling by train would be the unsafest form of transportation because there's no armed escort or it's difficult to have one, and the train only goes one direction and the track is visible so anyone with the equipment could figure out where you're going.
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Jul 5, 2023 14:56
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Boris Galerkin posted:I feel like traveling by train would be the unsafest form of transportation because there's no armed escort or it's difficult to have one, and the train only goes one direction and the track is visible so anyone with the equipment could figure out where you're going. Edit: presumably it also has grade separation, because the president getting into an accident because some moron drove through seemingly unused tracks would be a really dumb way of losing the head of state.
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Jul 5, 2023 15:00
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you could put it underground maybe?
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Jul 5, 2023 15:01
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:you could put it underground maybe? You still have to maintain the tracks and the tunnel. How do you keep an underground rail track that goes across the country properly maintained without everyone knowing about it?
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Jul 5, 2023 15:04
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I've been seeing a few reports that seem interesting but I can't seem to confirm, has anyone else heard about either of these? Mounting Death Toll: Putin Ally and Belarusian Minister Dies Under Mysterious Circumstances at 47-years-old(Aleksey Avramenko) Prigozhin arrives in St Petersburg, takes back seized weapons
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Jul 5, 2023 15:06
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The second is sourced to a fairly reputable St. Petersburg paper (Fontanka), but note that it's talking guns, not tanks.
OddObserver fucked around with this message at 15:25 on Jul 5, 2023 |
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Jul 5, 2023 15:16
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fatherboxx posted:Russian investigators from Dossier have managed to find documentation about Putin's famous train that he uses to travel to his Valdai residence on a secret railroad New Hitman level looks really good
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Jul 5, 2023 15:18
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