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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Judge Schnoopy posted:

If the goal is "win fast" just give them air superiority. That's the missing key to total victory. gently caress making Ukraine march through artillery fire when there's a better way.

Well, they are getting F-16s..at some point...training hasn't even started yet. The goal is indeed win fast, but there's a poo poo ton of bureaucratic red tape that has to be navigated and you can't really cut through it. It sucks and F-16s should've been given a long time ago, but the next best time is now. And they're doing it..if not slower than everyone would like.

The problem with "just giving air superiority" is that it's not as simple as just handing over planes. You have to:

A) Train the pilots
B) Train the ground crews
C) Establish logistics chains for support and maintenance
D) Make sure the newly given F-16s aren't immediately blasted out of the air by Russian air defense, which is the number one thing keeping Ukraine from getting air superiority at the moment

That stuff is a lot of hard work and it takes time, another reason it should have been started long ago. But we'll likely see F-16s flying in Ukrainian skies by the end of the year.

e: ukraine should be allowed into nato as soon as possible


HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Jul 6, 2023

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zone
Dec 6, 2016

HonorableTB posted:

Well, they are getting F-16s..at some point...training hasn't even started yet. The goal is indeed win fast, but there's a poo poo ton of bureaucratic red tape that has to be navigated and you can't really cut through it. It sucks and F-16s should've been given a long time ago, but the next best time is now. And they're doing it..if not slower than everyone would like.

The problem with "just giving air superiority" is that it's not as simple as just handing over planes. You have to:

A) Train the pilots
B) Train the ground crews
C) Establish logistics chains for support and maintenance
D) Make sure the newly given F-16s aren't immediately blasted out of the air by Russian air defense, which is the number one thing keeping Ukraine from getting air superiority at the moment

That stuff is a lot of hard work and it takes time, another reason it should have been started long ago. But we'll likely see F-16s flying in Ukrainian skies by the end of the year.

Russia is losing 2-3 air defense systems on most days in theater. If Ukraine keeps up this pace, and encourages their enemy to disperse their TELs on the home front rather than on the battlefront, the necessary conditions can be achieved.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1676586485808611328
Good thread on Ukraine's current tactics and exploiting holes in Russian logistics and planning.

Arivia
Mar 17, 2011

CommieGIR posted:

But it won't kill any Turks?

That's nobody's business but the Turks!

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

That's a bigass explosion. Probably could have been avoided if they just did the One Weird Trick of "putting the ammo inside of the building" instead of just leaving it outside.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Toxic Mental posted:

That's a bigass explosion. Probably could have been avoided if they just did the One Weird Trick of "putting the ammo inside of the building" instead of just leaving it outside.

the buildings were all half constructed so it wouldn't have mattered anyway lmao, ukraine would've just been able to lob a HIMARS or drone at it anyway. Ever play GTA Vice City and do the RC helicopter mission where you place demolition charges in a building? like that

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

Yeah but I mean they were probably spotted in the first place because they decided to put them in a big courtyard instead of under cover, which is pretty funny for how short sighted and lazy it is

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

I feel like there's a multifaceted reason as to why Ukraine is accurately blocking Russian ammo depots. Partly I believe it is due to Russian intelligence but also I think it is part of the CIA bragging about how easy it is to recruit Russian spies in the federation. And part of that gives them a lovely wealth of knowledge as to where these shells and everything are going and what routes are being run.

I mean the US government has satellites that can recognize people's faces from loving orbit it's not hard to track ammunition centers and where they are going.

Also the Russian informants can very simply just tell the US which loving buildings they are in and then you crane can be told of this and then bomb them very accurately.

Or it's drones too.

Like I said I think it's multifaceted and I think drones are going to get you pretty far informants are going to get you farther but all of these things combined are going to get you to the point where you're popping 9 ammunition depots a day.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Toxic Mental posted:

Yeah but I mean they were probably spotted in the first place because they decided to put them in a big courtyard instead of under cover, which is pretty funny for how short sighted and lazy it is

hah yeah, ukraine watched them for a week loading up all the missiles in the courtyard, then reached out to touch them.

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr
Dec 22, 2018

I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Guys I think this war might have been started for the wrong reasons

And uh, Russia is the bad guy.

🫨

Special Military Operation Bad?

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1676574047109279744?s=20

Russian torture rooms found in liberated Zaporizhzhian village

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1676586485808611328
Good thread on Ukraine's current tactics and exploiting holes in Russian logistics and planning.

Since the thread still isn't visible without an account, what is the theory?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Killer robot posted:

Since the thread still isn't visible without an account, what is the theory?

Ukraine altered their tactics to take advantage of the long supply line for ammo stored way in the rear outside of HIMARS range. Probe Russians to contact, stop, hunker down and wait for them to blow their artillery load everywhere. Then pick up the attack again and bring the armor up when the Russian artillery has to truck in more ammo from 50 miles away.

To combat this Russia started bringing ammo dumps back closer to the front, and then they’re subsequently being blown up.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Killer robot posted:

Since the thread still isn't visible without an account, what is the theory?

tl;dr when Ukraine first got hold of HIMARS and started demolishing ammo and supply depots, the response was to move them out of GMLRS range. Then Ukraine started exploiting the long supply trips that were needed to get the ammo to the front, using bite and hold and artillery counterbattery tactics. In response, Russia started bringing ammo closer to the front, in somewhat smaller amounts this time. However these are now very accurately identified by both theater and field level intelligence resources now, which is why there's a lot of drone missions being recorded where drones are used to blow up field ammo depots. Essentially Ukraine is exploiting Russia's own tactics against them, and doing so very well.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
The tldr is that ukraine is vaporizing ammo dumps no matter where they are because the russians are constantly being forced to respond to ukraine's actions instead of the opposite

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1676563010192547841?s=20

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

I see Sgt. Chowdown got a promotion.



:rip: 2 a legend

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Ukraine has penetrated 1KM deep into bakhmut and now has the city outskirts under control on the west side of the H-32 hwy.

This gives them fire control over a good portion of the city.

So let's recap. In less than 8 weeks (nebulous timeline) bakhmut has been captured by Russia and 100,000 have died. Doing so the capture part taking 8 months.

Just for Ukraine to regain control of the flanks and have the cirt under tactical siege.


Also lol at the office purges that's always a good thing for Russia and definitely won't get hundreds of thousands killed

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Jul 6, 2023

Lifespan
Mar 5, 2002

McGavin posted:

I see Sgt. Chowdown got a promotion.



:rip: 2 a legend

How dare you! Sgt Chowdown is an American legend :patriot:

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

I literally ate a Costco glizzy today. Ketchup and relish. Sometimes I like to just go back to the basics.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
I saw a guy wearing a Sgt Chowdown shirt at Fred Meyer the other day and nearly died laughing, now I want one too

e: hahaha score :sickos:


PookBear
Nov 1, 2008

Killer robot posted:

Since the thread still isn't visible without an account, what is the theory?

who knows its another person that thinks making 30 twitter posts is better than writing an article or something

Ronwayne
Nov 20, 2007

That warm and fuzzy feeling.
That's top tier, right up with the guy in a respirator mask during peak covid wearing a bigfoot t-shirt with "social distancing champion"

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I mean the US government has satellites that can recognize people's faces from loving orbit

Where are you getting this wisdom? There's a limit to optical resolution. It's called the diffraction limit. It's literally physically impossible.

Given the size of the mirror (same as hubble) and atmospheric turbulence the best they can do is a 10cm resolution.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/09/us-spy-satellites-at-diffraction-limit-for-resolution-since-1971.html

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

spankmeister posted:

Where are you getting this wisdom? There's a limit to optical resolution. It's called the diffraction limit. It's literally physically impossible.

Given the size of the mirror (same as hubble) and atmospheric turbulence the best they can do is a 10cm resolution.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/09/us-spy-satellites-at-diffraction-limit-for-resolution-since-1971.html

Well the best we know about right now thanks to trump is that we can resolve images down to a resolution of 10 centimeters lol. Who knows what we have that hasn't been leaked? I can't easily believe that we haven't overcome that technical limitation in 52 years

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
you can gently caress w this in microscopy

https://www.nature.com/articles/nphoton.2009.100

i dunno if theres methods, cladestine or not, that are good for satellite imaging tho

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






HonorableTB posted:

Well the best we know about right now thanks to trump is that we can resolve images down to a resolution of 10 centimeters lol. Who knows what we have that hasn't been leaked

Physics. There's a literal physical limit to this.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
they gave stefan hell, the main pi behind this poo poo, a random rear end professorship in astronomy despite all his poo poo being microscopy, looks like here

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Maybe they have satellites now that have bigger mirrors. That's what's needed to increase resolution. There's only finite room in a rocket though so you'd need a fold out mirror of some kind. Perhaps if James Webb wasn't the first to do this and the technology was developed and deployed in secret it might be possible. We have zero evidence of those existing though, and WAR CRIME GIGOLO was very confident in their statements, hence my question.

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!
don't worry we can use AI to yell "ENHANCE" at the image's artifacts and it absolutely will increase the resolution accurately and not simply guess that everyone is a somewhat homely white guy

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

spankmeister posted:

Physics. There's a literal physical limit to this.

you can overcome it if you build poo poo outside the assumptions in the model

eg, superlenses for microscopy

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1108759


I wouldn't be surprised if stacking multiple images and a shitload of math could significantly reduce atmospheric turbulence either

Scarodactyl
Oct 22, 2015


We've gotten a little better at dealing with turbulence and related issues in the last half century. I don't know how much better but more than nothing.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

spankmeister posted:

Maybe they have satellites now that have bigger mirrors. That's what's needed to increase resolution. There's only finite room in a rocket though so you'd need a fold out mirror of some kind. Perhaps if James Webb wasn't the first to do this and the technology was developed and deployed in secret it might be possible. We have zero evidence of those existing though, and WAR CRIME GIGOLO was very confident in their statements, hence my question.

quote:

Larger mirror would not have improved the resolution of Gambit-3, at its minimum altitude of 130 km. A larger mirror would only have been required if this distance were to be increased. The 2.4-meter, and the resolution limit imposed by atmospheric turbulence, it is reasonable to assume that the lowest altitude would be about the same as the present, 250 km.

A big 9.6-meter mirror could get maximum resolution from an orbit about four-time higher (1000 km).

From the link you posted it sounds like bigger mirrors only increase resolution to the theoretical maximum from higher altitudes, is that the case? I'm no optical physicist, I'm ("clearly" :v:) out of my depth here

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006





And on a more serious note, here's the explosives planted on top of ZNPP.

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1676833357680766977?s=20

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1676717259224408073?s=20

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1676717262911205378?s=20

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1676717266337947649?s=20

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1676717268820979712?s=20



Polish Foreign Minister says if Russia sabotages the ZNPP then the alliance will respond with action:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1676834066904018945?s=20

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 07:04 on Jul 6, 2023

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Disclaimer: I'm not a physicist, just a dude who reads stuff on the internet. I don't claim to hold any specific knowledge on satellites, optics, physics, etc.

Tunicate posted:

you can overcome it if you build poo poo outside the assumptions in the model
Sounds like magical thinking to me.

quote:

eg, superlenses for microscopy

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1108759

I think that only works for stuff really close to the lens? Could be wrong, maybe the evanescent waves they talk about make it a few hundred miles through the atmosphere and to the satellite. Doesn't seem very likely to me though.

quote:

I wouldn't be surprised if stacking multiple images and a shitload of math could significantly reduce atmospheric turbulence either

This might work for static objects but that one dude's face you're trying to identify would have to be looking up standing still for quite a while I'd think.

HonorableTB posted:

From the link you posted it sounds like bigger mirrors only increase resolution to the theoretical maximum from higher altitudes, is that the case? I'm no optical physicist, I'm ("clearly" :v:) out of my depth here

Yeah, that too. There's always a limit for a given distance, no matter the size. So even if you beat the turbulence there's still a limit.


poo poo, people's ideas of spy satellites really got broken by Enemy of the State.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

spankmeister posted:

Sounds like magical thinking to me.


they've built them, so it works. turns out light is more complicated than they believed in 1873

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Tunicate posted:

they've built them, so it works. turns out light is more complicated than they believed in 1873
:goonsay:

You clearly also have no loving clue what you're talking about. You're talking about microscopes and the physical effects being utilized are only present very close to the object emanating them. Show me a source describing an application of your magic lenses in imaging further away than a few centimeters and we can continue this discussion.

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

Fellas, FELLAS

Take it to the FUCKIN NERD thread

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Tunicate posted:

they've built them, so it works. turns out light is more complicated than they believed in 1873

they've built what, exactly? This isn't clear to me

Toxic Mental posted:

Fellas, FELLAS

Take it to the FUCKIN NERD thread

fellas?? NAFO spotted

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
near field dealios w better than diffraction limit resolutions. nowadays they have a half dozen ways

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Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~
The roof seems like a weird place to plant explosives

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