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fatherboxx)
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Re: cluster munitions; in the 1980s Fulda Gap invasion scenario there would not have been many children around to be hurt by these, as we also took it as a given that NATO would nuke the area in an effort to hinder the unstoppable Soviet tank armies (remember those? I do.)
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Jul 8, 2023 13:35
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Enjoy posted:You think that, in between the paragraphs where Jake Sullivan talks about cluster munitions being sent to Ukraine, he started talking about a completely unrelated topic? The White House's position, not just Jake Sullivan's, is that the cluster munitions will boost their chance of victory. They're not just sending them because they have nothing else they can send. We are not out of artillery rounds. We are, in fact, sending a ton of artillery rounds that AREN'T cluster munitions.
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Jul 8, 2023 13:39
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Kchama posted:Okay. It has been reported as a stop gap while the US gets its artillery production online, but I'm not sure that this will be the case when the time comes. Adequate production for Ukraine's needs is subjective and Ukraine's operations will expand to utilize the resources available. If the weapons are withdrawn there with be a cliff edge in their capacity, and with the taboo broken, where will the pressure to do this come from?
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Jul 8, 2023 13:44
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Atreiden posted:nope, I've seen their reports and how they're always afraid to call out Russia. This is patently untrue. Even by simply searching for 'Russia' on HRW's website, you can see plenty of results where Russia is being called out for a variety of reasons. https://www.hrw.org/sitesearch?search=russia HRW is already an unwanted organisation in Russia, they literally have nothing to be afraid of anymore.
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Jul 8, 2023 13:45
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Chalks posted:It has been reported as a stop gap while the US gets its artillery production online, but I'm not sure that this will be the case when the time comes. I've only seen Redstate call it a stogpap, which seems to just be "Well we have a lot of cluster munitions", but even they note that we're not actually out of regular munitions, the cluster munitions are just to beef up what we send them more than being because we're in desperate need of shells to send.
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Jul 8, 2023 13:48
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Paladinus posted:This is patently untrue. Even by simply searching for 'Russia' on HRW's website, you can see plenty of results where Russia is being called out for a variety of reasons. I wonder if Atreiden is confusing AI with HRW. It was AI who came out with that report that said "Ukrainian forces were primarily or equally to blame for the death of civilians resulting from attacks by Russia"
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Jul 8, 2023 13:54
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karthun posted:I wonder if Atreiden is confusing AI with HRW. It was AI who came out with that report that said "Ukrainian forces were primarily or equally to blame for the death of civilians resulting from attacks by Russia" Even that is not true. Amnesty has 5 reports on war crimes committed by Russia on every report that's critical of Ukrainian army.
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Jul 8, 2023 14:01
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Kchama posted:I've only seen Redstate call it a stogpap, which seems to just be "Well we have a lot of cluster munitions", but even they note that we're not actually out of regular munitions, the cluster munitions are just to beef up what we send them more than being because we're in desperate need of shells to send. From the NYT quote:In interviews, American officials said they expected the shipment of the cluster munitions to be a temporary move, until production of conventional artillery shells can be ramped up, probably by the spring of next year. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/us/politics/biden-ukraine-cluster-bombs.html
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Jul 8, 2023 14:15
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Chalks posted:From the NYT That doesn't contradict "we are not sending this because we're actually short on shells, but that we want to give bigger shipments of newly produced shells." If we wanted to send more shells, we just could, but we want to send them fresh for some dumb reason instead of from our stockpiles. We don't ever expect to use cluster munitions so we won't even notice them being gone and Ukraine has wanted them for some time, since they DO use a lot of cluster munitions. The 'stopgap' is "We're using them to make shipments bigger to the tune that we want to be sending out fresh but can't do just yet" as opposed to "until we have shells we can send period", which is what I was pointing out wasn't true. Does that make it more clear what I mean? Kchama fucked around with this message at 14:23 on Jul 8, 2023 |
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Jul 8, 2023 14:18
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Kchama posted:That doesn't contradict "we are not sending this because we're actually short on shells, but that we want to give bigger shipments." If we wanted to send more shells, we just could, but we want to send them fresh instead of from our stockpiles. Sorry, maybe we're talking at cross purposes. The original statement was notwithoutmyanus posted:Is there some premise somewhere that cluster munitions are sent because of a shell shortage vs an additional tool appropriate for the situation? Reports state that there is a shortage of shells that the US is willing to supply to Ukraine compared to the rate at which Ukraine requires shells. The reported reason cluster munitions are being sent is in order to temporarily cover that shortfall, not specifically because they are appropriate for the situation. Despite this, they are appropriate for the situation, that's just not the primary reason the US claims they are being sent. This is one of the reasons why I think that supply won't simply cease as the US supplies ramp up. They will be an extremely effective tool, and there would need to be a compelling reason to withdraw it at some point and set back Ukraine's capabilities.
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Jul 8, 2023 14:25
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Chalks posted:Sorry, maybe we're talking at cross purposes. The original statement was We seem to be, yes. Sorry.
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Jul 8, 2023 14:26
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Enjoy posted:So for every cluster bomb with 88 submunitions, that's about 2 dud submunitions. If America sends 10,000 and Ukraine fires them all, that's 20,000 dud submunitions. What proportion of dud submunitions are picked up by children, 10%? 50%? Enjoy posted:"Bombs don’t just kill during wartime, they remain live for decades. While no one knows the exact figures, upwards of 20,000 Laotians have been killed or injured by unexploded ordnance (UXO) since the end of the war. There were 63 accidents in 2021 alone. Even though the numbers are falling, Laotians are still being killed and injured as a result of a conflict that ended five decades ago. Of these, 45% are children." Bashez posted:I can't imagine this percentage starts with anything but a decimal point. Maybe slightly higher?
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Jul 8, 2023 14:34
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It's condescending and quite frankly imperialist to tell another country that is fighting an existential war "We won't give you something you say you need and we have because you're just going to hurt yourself with it. It's for your own good, really." The underlying arguments about whether cluster munitions' utility outweigh their dangers are frankly not ours to be making.
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Jul 8, 2023 14:59
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Paladinus posted:Even that is not true. Amnesty has 5 reports on war crimes committed by Russia on every report that's critical of Ukrainian army. I think you should read the AI review of their press release in question. Its pretty damning for AI. https://int.nyt.com/data/documentto...90405e/full.pdf
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Jul 8, 2023 15:11
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I can only imagine the amount of spent brass that gets produced by a modern war. There must be drifts of casings piling up.
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Jul 8, 2023 15:14
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karthun posted:I think you should read the AI review of their press release in question. Its pretty damning for AI. Yes, that one particular press release wasn't good. Not the point, and not a good reason for a sweeping generalisation.
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Jul 8, 2023 15:15
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Paladinus posted:Yes, that one particular press release wasn't good. Not the point, and not a good reason for a sweeping generalisation. The problem is what it reveals about the organization's leadership.
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Jul 8, 2023 15:39
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KillHour posted:It's condescending and quite frankly imperialist to tell another country that is fighting an existential war "We won't give you something you say you need and we have because you're just going to hurt yourself with it. It's for your own good, really." This is the only correct take. Russia could reduce the amount or risk to Ukrainian children by getting the gently caress out of Ukraine but tankys rarely consider that an option, too busy sighing about American hegmony (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 8, 2023 16:08
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The question about whether or not to give Ukraine cluster munitions basically comes down to these three issues: is their opponent using cluster munitions anyway? Are Ukraine's civilians being intentionally targeted? Would Ukraine not having cluster munitions preserve future safety of some kind in the conflict region? Considering their land is being mined to hell and back by a foreign occupier that intentionally warcrimes civilians as often as possible and has been launching constant terror attacks at civilian populations (and uses cluster munitions anyway), most conversations you could have about this are moot
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Jul 8, 2023 16:29
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KillHour posted:It's condescending and quite frankly imperialist to tell another country that is fighting an existential war "We won't give you something you say you need and we have because you're just going to hurt yourself with it. It's for your own good, really." The US has severe enough concerns with DPICM that they don't even issue DPICM to their own forces for use in combat. US use of DPICM is limited internally, such that both the issuing of DPICM to combat troops as well as employment are highly, highly regulated. The US maintains them for emergency worst case scenarios and has been actively pursuing an alternative, which would make the US comfortable with the decision to dismantle and destroy them outright. The US used DPICM extensively in the Gulf War, but afterwards, and after seeing the results, moved to much more severely limit commanders' authority to fire these weapons. That said, the US and coalition (Britain, mostly) did fire DPICM in the Iraq war in 2003, mostly in a counter-battery fire role. Since 2008, the US military has even more strictly limited their use and been actively conducting studies on how to eliminate them from service while buying down enough risk to do so. So far, the US has essentially committed to developing an alternative, but has not yet found an alternative considering the risk of a near-peer or peer degrading GPS, guidance systems, etc, while employing cluster munitions of their own. This has resulted in the odd status of not letting ground commanders fire them, but keeping them around "just in case," the US found itself in a serious conflict where they decided to authorize their use. This has been a concern for almost two decades now, since a major review in their use and continued existence became in issue of US policy in 2008. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/16603/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-us-militarys-new-cluster-munition-policy While the US has made the decision to issue out DPICM to Ukraine, the argument against isn't that Ukraine the government would only hurt itself with DPICM. Of course they have utility vs vehicles, exposed defensive positions, soft targets like radars and artillery, etc. It's an argument against employing these weapons, which invariably will harm innocent civilians, sometimes months or years after the fact, attributable to a US-made and donated weapon. It would benefit the government of Ukraine and the armed forces of Ukraine to have these weapons, but it might not benefit the long-term welfare of civilians. Even with conventional munitions, US sales or donations often come with strings attached. As an example, when the US sells bombs or missiles to other countries, it sometimes requires that the country only use them defensively and announce their use to the US. This is enforced by US inspections of their weapons depots. In this way, you don't end up selling bombs to a foreign country, then they drop them all on civilians, start a war, etc, and then lack any accountability of using US weapons. So having strings/limits attached to using US weaponry is not unique to the context of the war in Ukraine. I think there is a very sound argument that if the US or a NATO ally were in the position of Ukraine, the US would have broken the seal and authorized ROE that permits use of DPICM. The catch is that the Ukraine is neither the US nor is it a NATO ally or bi-lateral ally of the US. But if someone's going in position is that Ukraine should be offered weapons that NATO allies would be offered, yeah, the logical conclusion is of course Ukraine should be given DPICM and other weapons. If your overarching argument is less about DPICM and more that the US acts in an imperialist manner, yes, clearly the US acts in an imperialist manner all over the world, as most people use the word "imperialist."
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Jul 8, 2023 16:37
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This is an interesting development https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1677683116511461376 quote:Zelensky posts an image, simply titled "home", as his jet brings Denys Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Serhiy Volynsky, Oleh Khomenko, and Denys Shleha back to Ukraine (presumably via Poland.) https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1677707682759819264 quote:Turkey is now violating Russia's condition for hosting Azov fighters -- by sending them back to Ukraine. Comes after Erdogan came out in favor of Ukrainian membership in NATO. Something is afoot in Ankara. *edit* apparently not, Russia is mad about this. Trying to find a better source on this atm. Chalks fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Jul 8, 2023 |
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Jul 8, 2023 17:13
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My lukewarm take as someone who's lived in a country and region of said country where UXO and landmines are a daily concern is that it loving sucks but most children are smart enough to be taught "don't leave the road," "don't go into that forest," "if you see something that looks like x, don't touch it and tell an adult," etc. It takes resources (government or NGO) and a functional educational institution to distribute said resources, but like a poster said above it's not like Ukraine is going to be releasing a kindergartens-worth of kids to play in cleared trenches the instant the front moves east.
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Jul 8, 2023 17:45
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Chalks posted:
Yes, Peskov is a poor source since he generally doesn't know anything, and when he knows about things he lies.
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Jul 8, 2023 18:00
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Telsa Cola posted:Speaking as someone who has to deal with UXO for work way often then you would think given my job I would rather deal with mines then cluster munitions when dealing with clean up. Do you work on a copper mine in Laos or something?
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Jul 8, 2023 18:11
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Do you work on a copper mine in Laos or something? Archaeological surveyor. UXO removal in the states is generally done federally and because of this they are generally legally required to have an archaeological consultant on hand as the removal is 90% of the time ground disturbing and has a chance to impact cultural resources. The project area has to be surveyed before they do any digging, heavy equipment moving, etc. Sometimes you have EOD folks with you who check everything out/clear a path, sometimes they just give you a ppt that's "Don't pick up or kick metal poo poo" and let you loose. I think I've walked up on 1 UXO per year worked. My favorite so far is the shell we found full of mustard gas. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Jul 8, 2023 |
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Jul 8, 2023 19:09
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Telsa Cola posted:Archaeological surveyor. eyy fellow arch major. actually had no idea the states had that much unexploded stuff still laying around.
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Jul 8, 2023 19:15
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Telsa Cola posted:Archaeological surveyor. It’s off-topic, but I would love to read as many words as you care to write about your job.
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Jul 8, 2023 19:28
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Telsa Cola posted:Archaeological surveyor. That sounds incredibly intense. Was that any where remotely close to what you thought you'd be doing when you signed up for that job?
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Jul 8, 2023 19:33
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buglord posted:eyy fellow arch major. actually had no idea the states had that much unexploded stuff still laying around. Heya, always good to see another arch. It's generally known where it's all at, mostly artillery/bombing/testing ranges. The thing is, you still gotta do work in those areas. Xiahou Dun posted:It’s off-topic, but I would love to read as many words as you care to write about your job. I've debated putting together an A/T thread about it. The archaeology thread/outdoor worker thread are both pretty dead which is a bummer. Umbreon posted:That sounds incredibly intense. Was that any where remotely close to what you thought you'd be doing when you signed up for that job? Hah, it's alright, I've had more anxiety working in a problem bear dumping area than in UXO areas. As long as I can see everyone is taking the safety talks seriously It's generally fine. Not really, but what we do varies based on the contract and client needs. UXO ones are pretty clearly marked. For the record, I don't primarily do UXO stuff. It just comes up once in a while, and I have experience with it and am willing to deal with it.
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Jul 8, 2023 20:03
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buglord posted:eyy fellow arch major. actually had no idea the states had that much unexploded stuff still laying around. It washes up occasionally on the NC coastline, too. Between all the US training sites here in WWII, nazi torpedos, depth charges thrown at nazi subs, mines laid by Nazi subs to avoid those ships that throw depth charges, and all the other various ships that have sank/been sank here…it’s definitely not out of the ordinary.
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Jul 8, 2023 20:25
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Telsa Cola posted:For the record, I don't primarily do UXO stuff. It just comes up once in a while, and I have experience with it and am willing to deal with it. Can you elaborate at all on why you'd consider mines to be easier to clear than cluster munitions? Would be really interested to know how they differ from that perspective
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Jul 8, 2023 20:32
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Chalks posted:This is an interesting development Turkiyë handed them over directly to Zelenskyy at a Turkish airport. https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1677680287143063552?s=46&t=eYnb6uC9Nqku2TRAz1AKtQ
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Jul 8, 2023 20:45
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Also Erdogan stated today that Ukraine deserves membership in NATO unlike the honourless terrorist supporting pigs in Sweden. Putin will be visiting Turkey in August, I sure don't know what game Erdogan is playing but my assumption is that he's trying to bully some concessions from Putin on Syria or some other issue after he makes another reversal.
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Jul 8, 2023 20:59
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The relationship between Turkey and Russia is fascinating https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1677734188659744769 Basically bending over backwards to give them a pass on this
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Jul 8, 2023 21:03
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I cannot see any of this happening in Turkiye if Wagner didn't pants Putin the way he did. If anyone wanted any sort of proof that this weakened him, here it is.
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Jul 8, 2023 21:04
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I see Erdoğan playing Putin at his own game (agreements are only valid until I have an opportunity to flagrantly break them, and you are weak for thinking otherwise) The worst person you know, etc.
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Jul 8, 2023 21:08
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Robviously posted:I cannot see any of this happening in Turkiye if Wagner didn't pants Putin the way he did. If anyone wanted any sort of proof that this weakened him, here it is. I'm not sure I understand. How does the weakening/ending of Wagner specifically play into this and Russia/Turkey relations?
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Jul 8, 2023 21:09
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Chalks posted:Can you elaborate at all on why you'd consider mines to be easier to clear than cluster munitions? Would be really interested to know how they differ from that perspective I wrote up a longer post about it but exited out without saving it. The TLDR (not an expert or authority) is that cluster munitions add in more variables and unknowns (and more ordnance) and that even if they have built in safety features that doesnt really mean poo poo until the EOD person has proven that said feature has kicked in and its disarmed. poo poo bounces, disperses weird, gets buried on impact, gets covered with soil over time, gets stuck in a branch or bush and all that poo poo complicates things. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Jul 8, 2023 |
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Jul 8, 2023 21:13
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Robviously posted:I cannot see any of this happening in Turkiye if Wagner didn't pants Putin the way he did. If anyone wanted any sort of proof that this weakened him, here it is. This is an interesting take and worth discussing. In my opinion for this to be true it would require that Erdogan's staff has come to the conclusion that Putin is kaputt and it's time to side with the winners. But this would be a risky bet and they would have to be very confident to do so. Because if Putin remains in power and has to be negotiated with in the future then you wouldn't want to upset the relationship very lightly. Weakened or not, Putin is still in charge and could start creating trouble in Syria etc. It's also worth remembering that the relations between Turkey and Russia have been very, VERY touchy, for years. It's not the first time that Erdogan has first shown Putin finger and then kissed and made up. They have conflicting interests all over the place but they also need to cooperate a bit. The same goes with Turkey and USA, EU & NATO.
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Jul 8, 2023 21:17
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 06:37 |
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RoyKeen posted:I'm not sure I understand. How does the weakening/ending of Wagner specifically play into this and Russia/Turkey relations?
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Jul 8, 2023 21:18
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