(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Regarding cluster bombs: There has been several posters trying to imply, or openly say, that the only reasons for opposing the use of cluster munitions by Ukraine is that you're: a) a pearl-clutching pacifist, b) a moron, or c) a proud z-wearing Putinist (or a combination of the options above) Meanwhile, in the real world, the act of sending cluster munitions is being critizised by pretty much every relevant NGO, which could be expected. But also by most governments supporting Ukraine's war effort, including countries like Spain, Germany and the UK. A UK, mind you, that was ready to send MBTs to Ukraine when the US still said they were off limits. A UK that sent Storm Shadows when the US said that longer range missiles were off limits. Hardly the dove faction of the coalition supplying Ukraine with weapons. With that said, there is clearly room to support sending cluster munitions to Ukraine. Obviously, the national leadership of the US and Ukraine both deemed it necessary. But that position is, internationally, in the minority. There are a lot more actors that are opposed to this act. And not just internet posters, but national governments, which I hope have a little bit more insight in the matter than D&D. So I find the very aggressive posts the last couple of pages that have been browbeating other posters that are critical to the cluster munition packages to be in very poor form, as they try to imply that it is an unfathomable position, when it is actually the more common one.
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Jul 9, 2023 18:48
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https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1678053396983447552?t=dlou2vGUrwibOS1tNIHEkQ&s=19 Regardless of one's position as pro or anti-cluster bombs, it seems relatively uncontroversial to me that utilizing older munitions with a higher UXO rate is just a bad idea I don't have access past the paywall so forgive me if this is a misleading headline (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 9, 2023 18:55
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Chalks posted:I'm going to avoid talking about the Donetsk issue since IMO it's too unclear what is actually happening here. Both sides accuse each other of it, but even if you could say for certain which side did it, what was the intent, what was the target and did it have government approval? It's far too difficult to say anything. Obviously, if the situation is that the Ukrainian government ordered the bombardment of civilians to terrorise them then this would be equivalent and would change my opinion on things, but that's not what you're citing here. It does not need to be terror strikes - when you are using Grads it is near impossible to do precision strikes, so if you are aiming it at any kind of populated area to strike an enemy position there you are accepting collateral damage.
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Jul 9, 2023 18:58
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That appears to directly contradict mlmp08's DOD update readout above. ...ah, you're misrepresenting what it says.
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Jul 9, 2023 18:59
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lilljonas posted:Regarding cluster bombs: You're missing a lot of nuance, particularly things like the fact that countries that are signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions are pretty much required to oppose the move, regardless of their actual feelings on it. What has the UK, Spain or Germany actually done, threatened to do, or mused over doing apart from saying 'Yeah we still think those things are bad'? The idea that a country opposing something is somehow noteworthy when they are effectively contractually obligated to oppose it isn't exactly a zinger. If the UK was a signatory to a treaty that said 'MBTs are awful and we are committed as a country to decommissioning all of ours and never seeking out any new ones' what do you think their public response to Abrams or Leopards going to Ukraine would have been? It also doesn't help that the criticism of using DPICMs seems to come from a place of 'Well they do more harm than good to civilians' without actually stating what their understanding of the prospects of civilians in an area occupied by a hostile force that does not believe in their statehood, culture and arguably their humanity are as a baseline that would be being made 'worse'.
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Jul 9, 2023 18:59
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A big flaming stink posted:I don't have access past the paywall so forgive me if this is a misleading headline Here you go
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Jul 9, 2023 18:59
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Rugz posted:You're missing a lot of nuance, particularly things like the fact that countries that are signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions are pretty much required to oppose the move, regardless of their actual feelings on it. What has the UK, Spain or Germany actually done, threatened to do, or mused over doing apart from saying 'Yeah we still think those things are bad'? The idea that a country opposing something is somehow noteworthy when they are effectively contractually obligated to oppose it isn't exactly a zinger. I don't agree, they could have been far less silent in their opposition if they didn't actually think it was important to make a point. And of course they have not threatened to do anything, that'd be insane. Threaten the US with what? Stern words are the only realistic option if they are opposed, and they've used stern words. If they thought it was ace they'd shuffle their feet. If the US wants to send cluster munitions, there's nothing anyone can do about it. Neither this thread or the UK (or any other) government. That doesn't make it an impossible position to have, to look at the facts and believe that the negatives outweigh the positives. My point is that that's a position that is actually the norm, rather than an insane outlier. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 19:06
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lilljonas posted:I don't agree, they could have been far less silent in their opposition if they didn't actually think it was important to make a point. And of course they have not threatened to do anything, that'd be insane. Threaten the US with what? Stern words are the only realistic option if they are opposed, and they've used stern words. If they thought it was ace they'd shuffle their feet. They were approached for comment, they didn't go out of their way to denounce the decision. The statements are literally just repeating the party line of 'We oppose this thing', just like when 'someone' blew up the dam and they just sat around calling for restraint from both sides like a broken record because there was a demand for comments to be made.
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Jul 9, 2023 19:10
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Again: US would not be supplying cluster munitions if supply of regular shells was adequate. The countries complaining had about 16 months to fix the issue, and it's still down the line. Maybe rather then acting holier-than-thou they can look as to why it always takes them forever to even start doing the right thing, and then think of how many civilians will suffer in the meanwhile. Or think for why European businesses are still bankrolling Russian state, why blatant sanction violators providing weapons components are not in jail.
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Jul 9, 2023 19:11
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lilljonas posted:Regarding cluster bombs: These are some fair points and I'm probably guilty of the top one, but you have to admit a lot of people seem to be coming at this from a "Ukraine will use these weapons in the same way the Russians have" i.e. indiscriminate use with no regard for noncombatants and for terror stance.
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Jul 9, 2023 19:20
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Moon Slayer posted:These are some fair points and I'm probably guilty of the top one, but you have to admit a lot of people seem to be coming at this from a "Ukraine will use these weapons in the same way the Russians have" i.e. indiscriminate use with no regard for noncombatants and for terror stance. Honestly I think a lot of the opposition from ukraine’s allies are due to this normalizing the use of cluster munitions in general, not just the long term effect it will have on Ukraine specifically. E: that is, there are things that would be tactically advantageous for Ukraine on the short term that are negative on the long term, especially outside the scope of just the war in Ukraine. Which I think most people agree with as general principle, even if we disagree on where that line is. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 19:36
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Moon Slayer posted:These are some fair points and I'm probably guilty of the top one, but you have to admit a lot of people seem to be coming at this from a "Ukraine will use these weapons in the same way the Russians have" i.e. indiscriminate use with no regard for noncombatants and for terror stance. And on top of that, the best targets for cluster bombs are lousy with UXO from conventional artillery shells. There will be a huge Zone Rouge in Ukraine for decades to come, and cluster bombs will not make that problem appreciably worse..
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Jul 9, 2023 19:38
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lilljonas posted:Meanwhile, in the real world, the act of sending cluster munitions is being critizised by pretty much every relevant NGO, which could be expected. But also by most governments supporting Ukraine's war effort, including countries like Spain, Germany and the UK. A UK, mind you, that was ready to send MBTs to Ukraine when the US still said they were off limits. A UK that sent Storm Shadows when the US said that longer range missiles were off limits. Hardly the dove faction of the coalition supplying Ukraine with weapons.
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Jul 9, 2023 20:06
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Shogeton posted:Also, disagreeing with the 'WW I style ending is the only solution' statement. Tomorrow, Putin could die, and whoever ends up in charge could decide that this is a good time to get out of that quagmire. I haven't watched the video through yet, but imo this is a rather cloudlandish sentiment. It's on the same level as someone dreaming in 1940 that Hitler could die in 1941, and whoever comes after him could decide to pull out of all their neighbours. It's a possibility, but a possibility that relies on two unlikely things happening is more of a comforting thought than anything to hold breath for.
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Jul 9, 2023 20:11
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Bluntly, if the Ukrainian government wants to use them, they're welcome to them. If the Ukrainian government wants to use them on Ukrainian land, that's only fair because they're the ones who will be cleaning it up. If the Ukrainian government wants to use them on Russian civilian populations, that's also fair game at this point and has been since Bucha. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 9, 2023 20:18
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Morrow posted:If the Ukrainian government wants to use them on Russian civilian populations, that's also fair game at this point and has been since Bucha. 
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Jul 9, 2023 20:19
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Actual content: looks like Erdogan is floating trial balloons for his NATO hostage-taking. https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1678100671705251841 For those who can't read the tweet, he wants to move forward with EU membership.
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Jul 9, 2023 20:21
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fatherboxx posted:It does not need to be terror strikes - when you are using Grads it is near impossible to do precision strikes, so if you are aiming it at any kind of populated area to strike an enemy position there you are accepting collateral damage. Yeah, but that doesn't clarify the situation to the point that you can say "here is evidence that the ukrainian government also targets civilians". I'd give the Russians the same benefit of the doubt if they didn't freely admit to terror bombings and didn't have such a well established pattern.
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Jul 9, 2023 20:24
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Chalks posted:Yeah, the truck bombing is very unfortunate to have involved a civilian, but I don't think raising that point in a conversation about Russia intentionally bombing civilians in a terror campaign is valid. These things should not be conflated. I rose that point against this: quote:Not mention, every time they've carried out an operation in Russia, they've been extremely careful not target civilian or civilian infrastructure. Which is just an attempt to dispel some mysticism that Ukrainians are perfect angels, which they are not, they can't be, nobody is perfect in war. Making that point is very difficult in the current political discourse, in no small part, due to Russian dis-info campaigns which signal boost bad things about Ukraine and inject tension. But that doesn't mean its a valid point to make. And I think something that is getting missed in the current cluster bomb discourse is that even though the US government is supplying it regardless, the public conversation can put pressure on the administration to add caveats on their usage per mlmp08's post: quote:Ukraine has agreed in writing to the US not to use DPICM on civilian-populated urban areas, and to log where they are fired, and US has pleldged $95m in demining/UXO support. [My note: That seems to give some wiggle room on urban areas that used to be civilian-populated, but no longer are, even if that wasn't the intent.] So all in all, that sort of pressure is ultimately a good thing and the conversation is having an arguably positive effect on how the war is conducted.
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Jul 9, 2023 20:28
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Morrow posted:Actual content: looks like Erdogan is floating trial balloons for his NATO hostage-taking. Bad news, as an EU citizen I'd rather not have those backwards dickheads acceding and making our political superstructure any shittier or more regressive than it already is.
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Jul 9, 2023 20:43
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Morrow posted:Actual content: looks like Erdogan is floating trial balloons for his NATO hostage-taking. well that's it then, Sweden is never gonna join NATO, because good luck convincing Germany to agree to Turkey joining the EU
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Jul 9, 2023 20:56
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lilljonas posted:Honestly I think a lot of the opposition from ukraine’s allies are due to this normalizing the use of cluster munitions in general, not just the long term effect it will have on Ukraine specifically. This is my major issue with the whole thing. The next time a state uses cluster munitions they can just point to this as another whatabout. America's failure to join in the ban on cluster munitions has been a bad thing and any further weakening of global opposition to cluster munitions is a bad thing. even if it achieves the short term good thing of improving Ukraine's tactical situation.
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Jul 9, 2023 20:57
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Morrow posted:Actual content: looks like Erdogan is floating trial balloons for his NATO hostage-taking. They are never ever joining so long as Cyprus is in the EU lol, and before you ask the Erdogan admin has nonstop played hyper nationalist hardball with the crisis there, so this is some sort of gesture more than an actual attempt at anything.
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Jul 9, 2023 21:05
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lilljonas posted:Honestly I think a lot of the opposition from ukraine’s allies are due to this normalizing the use of cluster munitions in general, not just the long term effect it will have on Ukraine specifically. I think this is pretty effectively countered by the whole "European countries could have prioritized supplying alternatives" argument. Ultimately, the unspoken bit here is that Ukrainians should die for the good of future participants in as-yet unknown wars. If you acknowledge that there is a short-term improvement in Ukrainian prospects through their use, then I think the Ukrainian state has an obligation to make use of them unless the long-term ramifications for Ukraine specifically outweigh them. It's also fair, IMO, to point out that the response to Russia making use of them hasn't been much of anything (at least to my knowledge, willing to be corrected here). If European countries had demonstrated a willingness to take more drastic action then, there might be an argument that Ukraine should avoid it due to the consequences. Since no additional steps were taken then, punishing Ukraine now just comes across as picking a side. If they wanted to collectively incentivize Ukraine not to use them, they could offer an aid package contingent on Ukraine not accepting or destroying the cluster munitions, like a gun buyback program on a nation-state level. If no one is going to put their money where their mouth is either in punitive measures or rewards for adhering to these standards, then the mild disapproval is of no consequence to the Ukrainian military and their strategies. I would also say that the European signatories of the anti-cluster munitions treaty kind of come off as disingenuous when most or all of them are in NATO and therefore benefit from the US NOT being a signatory - not to mention they have the benefit of the nuclear umbrella. I'm sure Ukraine would be happy to accept soldiers from any of their neighbors or acceptance into the EU and/or NATO over the freedom to use cluster munitions, but those things aren't on the table Edit: I would also say that Russia actively using them in this war is the more pertinent "what-about" than the US supplying them to Ukraine, not just because they did it first but also because the future users of cluster munitions are much more likely to be in Africa or Asia than Europe or the Americas - this goes back to the whole "war of choice" thing where the side with overwhelming force has the freedom to declare whatever rules of engagement they want, so anyone with nukes or nuclear allies will never be in a similar situation BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 21:06
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Libluini posted:well that's it then, Sweden is never gonna join NATO, because good luck convincing Germany to agree to Turkey joining the EU Turkey was and could return to the road to EU membership - the problem is that it will require a whole load of reforms that an autocratic leader really doesn't want to make. Presumably Turkey would be proposing joining the EU but somehow avoiding these reforms and there's zero chance of that. It's actually such an impossibility that I struggle to believe they'd even suggest it.
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Jul 9, 2023 21:08
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BougieBitch posted:I would also say that the European signatories of the anti-cluster munitions treaty kind of come off as disingenuous when most or all of them are in NATO and therefore benefit from the US NOT being a signatory - not to mention they have the benefit of the nuclear umbrella. I'm sure Ukraine would be happy to accept soldiers from any of their neighbors or acceptance into the EU and/or NATO over the freedom to use cluster munitions, but those things aren't on the table At least some voices in the German government are trying to give Ukraine German Taurus-missiles, and more support for the countries who want to supply Ukraine with modern Western jets. This suggestion was made as a counter-offer in case Ukraine agrees to not use cluster munitions. Since Ukraine has actively asked for Taurus-missiles and Eurofighters, Germany could in theory be convinced to give Ukraine a lot of stuff that's arguably more useful than a bunch of controversial munitions. Flinging a Taurus into a Russian general's bunker would do wonders for the length of the war.
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Jul 9, 2023 21:11
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Is there a good article, site, video or podcast that runs down the various countries that are hovering around the threshold of EU and NATO memberships, the various issues in favor or against membership and the countries that throw a wrench in their membership campaigns and why? It's a pretty interesting topic that comes up repeatedly here and is directly relevant to this war.
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Jul 9, 2023 21:20
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Libluini posted:At least some voices in the German government are trying to give Ukraine German Taurus-missiles, and more support for the countries who want to supply Ukraine with modern Western jets. This suggestion was made as a counter-offer in case Ukraine agrees to not use cluster munitions. Speaking personally, I think it would be a good solution and a net positive for everyone if this sort of counter-offer was followed through on. Good PR for Ukraine, who can voluntarily sign on to the treaty, and it gives Europe a justification for "escalating" that is signalled in a way that avoids tit-for-tat stuff from Russia. If it actually does happen, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the whole thing was a long-con sort of thing where the US set it up ahead of time using backchannels - not in, like, a binding way, but as a 3-D chess plan from some faction on both the US and German sides. Given the whole thing about Germany dragging their feet on MBTs at the start of the war because they didn't want to have the negative PR of "German tanks roll over Eastern Europe", finding ways to change the spin on supplying new things to Ukraine has got to be something a lot of people are thinking about, and CMs are probably one of the few things where there is a big enough disconnect between how the US/Russia see them and how Europe sees them to leverage things this way (you obviously couldn't do this with nukes or chemical weapons or whatever). Shifting more of the burden of supplying Ukraine to Europe is probably something the US wants pretty badly to begin with, since the political considerations of getting more funding passed are potentially tricky, and the rate of supply is obviously bottlenecked (since that was at least the stated reason for not simply giving more conventional artillery shells)
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Jul 9, 2023 21:22
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Zwabu posted:Is there a good article, site, video or podcast that runs down the various countries that are hovering around the threshold of EU and NATO memberships, the various issues in favor or against membership and the countries that throw a wrench in their membership campaigns and why? It's a pretty interesting topic that comes up repeatedly here and is directly relevant to this war. Turkey: Most likely going to be vetoed by the EU member whose island they half militarily occupy while denying they exist as a sovereign nation. Lmao at Germans thinking they're the real gatekeeper on Turkey.
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Jul 9, 2023 21:33
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Zwabu posted:Is there a good article, site, video or podcast that runs down the various countries that are hovering around the threshold of EU and NATO memberships, the various issues in favor or against membership and the countries that throw a wrench in their membership campaigns and why? It's a pretty interesting topic that comes up repeatedly here and is directly relevant to this war. On wikipedia you can find the basics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_enlargement_of_the_European_Union
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Jul 9, 2023 21:35
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Is there any basis for the repeated statement in this thread that the UXO issue with cluster munitions is a distraction the situation can't get any worse? Just using common sense, there's a lot of land in question here and presumably cluster munitions are an order of magnitude more difficult to handle as UXO than conventional artillery. And more likely to cause civilian casualties down the line.
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Jul 9, 2023 22:04
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Jeza posted:Is there any basis for the repeated statement in this thread that the UXO issue with cluster munitions is a distraction the situation can't get any worse? The entire contested area is heavily mined and Russia has been using cluster munitions since the start of the war. The argument is that in a minefield that's already scattered with cluster UXO, some more cluster UXO probably doesn't make that much difference - especially considering the dud rate on US vs Russian bomblets is 3% vs 30%. It does make the situation worse but "how much worse?" is going to be very context dependant. Chalks fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 22:15
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I don't really think there's a sound argument to be made that cluster munitions can't make the situation worse. They will just on the simple fact that there is now more UXO in one area that now has to be dealt with before the area can be opened up safely. Just because an area is already hosed from an access standpoint does not mean you can't make the situation worse from a removal standpoint. I think the argument is more "Is this worth it in the long run" which is tricky and I dunno if anybody has posted any figures on this. IMO this would ultimately hinge on things that are basically impossible to know at this point in time like how much quicker does the war end with the introduction of cluster munitions (shorter war, less civilian deaths), how long would it take to clear out all the UXO areas? How many people die in that period of time from the UXO? Ukraine seems to think the calculations work out in their favor for using them. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 22:15
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Jeza posted:Is there any basis for the repeated statement in this thread that the UXO issue with cluster munitions is a distraction the situation can't get any worse? I believe the basis for that statement stems from the fact that Russia is also using cluster munitions, and mines, not just conventional artillery, everywhere. So if you salt the earth, whats a little more salt gonna do? You could narrow it down and ask if Ukraine is planning on using cluster munitions only in areas where Russia has done the same, but good luck getting the Ukrainian MOD to tell you that. Also, it seems that posters who are concerned about UXO don't seem to accept that Ukraine has the capability to tell its citizens not to go into dangerous areas, would that not reduce civilian casualties? Nor do they seem to be willing to put the responsibility on Russia for their own creation of UXO within Ukraine. Last I heard, their dud rates for cluster munitions were significantly worse than western dud rates. Then it seems to boil down to being unable to come up with an estimate for lives lost due to Ukraine launched UXO vs lives lost due to Ukraine lacking weapons to remove a genocidal invader who is also dropping UXO indiscriminately. Both of which are unfortunately within the realm of predicting the future, which we cannot do, so we will argue about it endlessly.
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Jul 9, 2023 22:23
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Public information/safety campaigns do help but no public information campaign is going to have a 100% saturation rate, you are always going to have people who ignore it (kids) and or people who are just not aware or care. We had some people recently out in my neck of the woods target shooting in an old artillery range who were completely unware they were shooting in UXO land because the signage sucked poo poo. Yes, it would help lessen deaths though, and yes I think we are going to argue about it endlessly because it's the current hot topic and not much news is coming out to switch our focus. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 22:30
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I'm currently writing a mathematic formula of how many additional Ukrainian civilian casualties will be created by increased use of cluster munitions over the next two decades vs. how many Ukrainian civilian and soldier lives can be saved if their use shortens the war by a year. I shall report the results back to this thread as soon as I'm done, stay tuned!
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Jul 9, 2023 22:36
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Nenonen posted:I'm currently writing a mathematic formula of how many additional Ukrainian civilian casualties will be created by increased use of cluster munitions over the next two decades vs. how many Ukrainian civilian and soldier lives can be saved if their use shortens the war by a year. I shall report the results back to this thread as soon as I'm done, stay tuned! Will you ever actually contribute to the discussion or do you stick purely to contentless snark? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 9, 2023 22:43
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Jon posted:Will you ever actually contribute to the discussion or do you stick purely to contentless snark? Afaict you have been contributing to this thread for one day by Just Asking Questions. Maybe you are not the right person to ask?
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Jul 9, 2023 22:51
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Nenonen posted:Afaict you have been contributing to this thread for one day by Just Asking Questions. Maybe you are not the right person to ask? How involved do I need to be before I can point out that posting to get a rise out of people and spamming off topic soup recipes is bad for discussion and against the rules while asking questions is listed as a purpose of D&D?
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Jul 9, 2023 22:58
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Chalks posted:Turkey was and could return to the road to EU membership - the problem is that it will require a whole load of reforms that an autocratic leader really doesn't want to make. Turkey can try after the UK reapplies.... this may take some time (decades).
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Jul 9, 2023 22:59
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