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mrmcd posted:Gonna make a hot prediction here and say that China is not gonna be abandoning its currency to join some multinational currency by committee that also requires full gold reserves. At best, it’s just gonna be China announcing future intentions to have gold back up part of its currency and then BCR agreeing to settle some oil contracts in yuan, which they’re mostly already doing in some cases. And China has been buying gold all year so no news there either. Wet fart of the year.
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Jul 11, 2023 01:45
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that article, appearing on a goldbug website, is some dude named simon hunt of simon hunt research completely speculating with no references to cited sources or facts that the brics countries could possibly announce a new de dollarization currency that could be convertable to gold and that could mean a return to the gold standard, if mr. hunt is right I don't know why you'd waste a moment of your time with this level of "journalism"
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Jul 11, 2023 01:52
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It's been mentioned in the thread many times alone that a lot of BRICS is still dependent on the dollar by design. Also to give people an idea, running automated trading/investing has an enormously outsized amount of risk on trying to get returns greater than intelligent investment into the market - which many people are sold on and yet in many instances fails explicitly. So what the big short did was exceptionally risky, note those margin calls etc.
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Jul 11, 2023 01:53
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prc's iron hard control of its capital account is how it can have the highest rate of investment and some of the lowest household share of economy of any country in history. if they made and exported enough rmb in order to become a reserve currency more significant than singaporean dollars they lose that ability. what would they gain from that?
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Jul 11, 2023 01:53
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imagine if they based it on gold, though, gooooollllld gooooollllllldddddddddd just imagine can i interest you in some .999 kruggerands, only 5% over spot price, this is a great deal
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Jul 11, 2023 01:55
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Leperflesh posted:completely speculating with no references to cited sources or facts that the brics countries could possibly announce a new de dollarization currency that There is a good amount of discussion about two things on the wiki page for it 1) some kind of belt and road style investment fund of $100 billion 2) BRICS currency* https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-forex-idUSTRE5530NQ20090616 * quote:GLOBAL MARKETS ctrl+F for currency here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS yields many results edit: also voice of america, which I think is funded in part by the us govt https://www.voanews.com/a/common-currency-on-agenda-for-south-african-brics-summit/7090756.html May 12, 2023
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Jul 11, 2023 01:56
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I will eat a literal Chinese straw hat if there is a BRICS currency in my lifetime
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Jul 11, 2023 04:00
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I will eat a literal Chinese straw hat if there is a BRICS currency in my lifetime Toxx?
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Jul 11, 2023 04:04
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Hadlock posted:Toxx? Yeah
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Jul 11, 2023 04:10
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There might be a currency but no way India or China are putting their full weight behind it. It'll just be oil fun bux.
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Jul 11, 2023 04:15
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So you're saying its like a chinese strawman argument
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Jul 11, 2023 04:16
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its worth noting that india and the prc graduated to beating the crap out of each other with pole weapons in ladakh, pursuant to the treaties which they signed agreeing to no firearms and no explosives like all other previous effective ways to limit war, it'll prolly go to poo poo once anyone gets serious, and there goes brics for real
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Jul 11, 2023 04:31
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i cant even take brics seriously since people started including south africa as the S instead of just the S being plural BRICs south africa is a slowly failing state that has a smaller gdp than the state of indiana
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Jul 11, 2023 04:40
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On one hand, the entire idea is idiotic. But on the other hand...
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Jul 11, 2023 07:15
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I've heard about this a few times and I do not pretend to understand it. Obviously it makes me think of the Euro which came out of a trading block, but also a set of countries with some shared values and mostly shared borders and a desire to collectively compete. Sure, they all want to compete with the dollar, but don't the different material conditions in these countries make this unlikely and untenable? I guess that the Euro has some countries dragging them down, so maybe it's survivable.
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Jul 11, 2023 11:08
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Backing the currency with gold avoids the issues something like the euro has, where the conflict arises in how to execute monetary policy. Inflation in Germany but a recession in Greece makes that hard, one would want to see rates up the other down. Gold-backed currency has no policy lever, so there's no conflict - nobody can do anything, anyways. That's a bit of a simplification, they do have some policy options, but they are fairly blunt instruments compared to smoothly adjusting the overnight rate.
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Jul 11, 2023 14:07
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the inflation comes whenever you have a gold rush and otherwise its punishing grinding deflation all the time instead, lol
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Jul 11, 2023 14:09
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The US dropped the gold standard for a few reasons, but notable among them was that there just wasn’t enough gold in the world to support the velocity of money (let alone the creation of credit) being used to facilitate global trade done in USD. I forget the exact numbers, but it’s something absurd like 4x as many dollars had been issued vs the US’s collateral/reserves at the time the standard dropped (and — repeat — that’s not including credit). That was not a new phenomenon, though; the USD had been operating on fiat/faith for decades.  The continuation of the whole gold standard thing was (imo) mostly a tool used to coax foreign governments to buy into the idea that the USD is a good trade settlement currency. Aside from the fact that changing how your national currency is valued is an absurdly terrifying thing to do, jfc. I post all of this because any country willingly going onto the gold standard is hilarious. It’s fiat. It’s all fiat unless the issuer of the currency is so small that their trade balance could be covered by the amount of gold in the world AND they’re rich enough to buy all the gold in the world AND then it’s still fiat because you’re trusting them not to change their gold standard policy. America got away with the switcheroo because a lot of reasons (notably: it was already status quo) but another big reason is that it was the undeniable global hegemon with more guns than the next five combined. Practically the drop of the standard didn’t matter, but also no one was going to argue the point. DNK fucked around with this message at 15:07 on Jul 11, 2023 |
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Jul 11, 2023 15:04
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Does anyone else here remember when the sort of nutter who worried about UN one world government and Clinton bringing in the Blue Helmets in the 90s was convinced that NAFTA was going to lead to the disillusion of the dollar in favor of a US/Mexican/(sometimes Canadian) "Amero"? That's what this BRICSbuck thing smells like to me. Admittedly less doomsday rant from angry old man at the gun show because UN/ZOG but that same flavor of how the monetary world is totally going to get upended tomorrow by Euro 2.0, completely ignoring how the development of the Euro was a multi-decade affair that took place in broad daylight and was telegraphed way in advance. gently caress the Euro broke a lot of people's brains.
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Jul 11, 2023 19:14
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A lot of people still think Russia is a huge player on the world economic playing field when....they're really not. China and (to a lesser extent) India are, but they have way more motivation to be vaguely threatening to the dollar and not really much motivation actually seeing it replaced.
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Jul 11, 2023 19:38
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The whole Eurozone thing was also heavily pushed along by Cold War exigencies and pulled by wanting a slice of the economic miracles that West Germany/Japan had. I don't see much common political or economic alignment between BRICS that would allow them to pull it off, or any particular endgame in doing so.
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Jul 12, 2023 02:03
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The only part of it that makes a lick of sense to me is that it is very much in both russia and china's interests for the price of gold to go up, since china's mines produce 10% of the world's new gold, and russia is just behind them. (source) ...but the next three countries on the list are australia, canada, and the us. But that's at current prices. If prices rose and stayed higher, that might make a lot of reserves economically feasible to mine, so the situation is dynamic. Regardless, china's currency is currently locked to the value of the dollar and the idea they'd like to decouple it and then lock it to the value of a scarce commodity that they themselves have the largest production of makes some sort of sense, but not a whole lot of it because if only the BRICS countries shifted to a gold standard, given the size of their respective economies, they'd still basically have to buy gold from america, canada, and australia. Like, all of it. And russia is currently in a war that they at least see as a proxy war with the west, and under sanctions. Are they going to buy all their gold from china and brazil? But those countries would need all of their own gold (and then some) so why would they sell some to russia? it's all very silly and entirely a fantasy of goldbugs. If those countries did decide to invent a common reserve currency (and I do not believe they will), there's no chance it'd be backed by actual vaults of gold.
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Jul 12, 2023 02:16
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Lockback posted:A lot of people still think Russia is a huge player on the world economic playing field when....they're really not. They produce about 1/5th of the world's oil... and closer to 1/4 of the world's exported oil But yeah russia has seen pretty significant population decline, roughly offset by a mostly open door immigration policy to fill empty seats in factories etc + emmigration to warmer/better climates
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Jul 12, 2023 02:27
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Hadlock posted:But yeah russia has seen pretty significant population decline, roughly offset by a mostly open door immigration policy to fill empty seats in factories etc + emmigration to warmer/better climates Eh, Russia's population is more or less the same as it was at the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But, the rest of the world kept growing, so as a percentage of world population Russia has really fallen quite a bit. edit: graph for reference 
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Jul 12, 2023 02:53
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It's more complex than that, emigration is really high, plus abysmal fertility rate, but their 18th century us style open door immigration policy helps offset it. I looked at that graph to double check before making that initial statement I think they shoot the emmigrants out of 19th style naval cannons over the border 
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Jul 12, 2023 04:30
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And the native, sticky population they have is aging. It's a real problem. And while they have a chunk of oil trade, their GDP is like slightly above Italy. I'm not saying it's nothing, but they're not your top choice if you intend to dictate world economic policy.
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Jul 12, 2023 04:42
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pmchem posted:i cant even take brics seriously since people started including south africa as the S instead of just the S being plural BRICs Thanks, I thought I was going crazy.
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Jul 12, 2023 13:43
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They need South Africa involved how else will they protect the gold as it sails past the cape of good hope???
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Jul 12, 2023 14:01
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Thank you everyone for the BRICS responses so far, this was exactly the kind of discussion I was hoping would emerge. My piss-poor link (retrieved as an afterthought in case someone wanted the basics) underscores how the formation of BRICbucks is still little more than a hype game being used by gold peddlers and fearmongers, but I repeat myself. This thread is a balm whenever I'm around the tinfoil sect of economic commentators.
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Jul 12, 2023 16:14
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Hadlock posted:That was fast Boston following suit on commercial to residential conversion https://www.bostonplans.org/news-calendar/news-updates/2023/07/10/mayor-wu-announces-residential-conversion-program quote:Jul 10, 2023 in before "it's too hard/expensive!" most studies say 20-30% of commercial is a good fit for conversion edit: NYT on the scene: https://archive.is/8QR6o quote:So You Want to Turn an Office Building Into a Home? Hadlock fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 22:51
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Yeah, like you just can't take a random place and expect it to be really easy to convert but there's a lot that would make sense and be reasonably easy, especially with the new relaxed zoning laws. It'd be nice to see more cities do this.
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Jul 13, 2023 23:01
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I think some of the point of BRICS is so that countries can do what they like without the threat of suddenly being shut out of western trade like Russia was with SWIFT. Regardless of how viable, practical, or valuable a BRICS currency would be, I definitely get why China and Russia especially would want to establish a standard that circumvents the dollar. If China invades Taiwan in the near future, the US won't start a war with them, but they will likely do exactly what they did to Russia when Russia invaded Ukraine - lock them out of financial systems, put embargoes on them, etc. The BRICS countries also represent about half the world's population -- successfully de-dollarizing half the world would be quite a powerful blow against the dollar hegemon. There's a lot of people who are emotionally, financially, and politically invested in seeing that happen. https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/can-brics-dedollarize-the-global-financial-system/0AEF98D2F232072409E9556620AE09B0 this is an excellent, extensive research paper about BRICS that I'd recommend glancing over if you're interested
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Jul 15, 2023 17:11
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emotionally and politically yes. financially, it would gut every large exporter, including china itself you can't have a functioning brics currency and chinas current currency control regime, which is the main reason the prc has been a net exporter every single year since the mid 90s. you'd have mass unemployment to the extent that happened in the usa itself as the original dollarization happened, only in heilongjiang instead of pittsburgh bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Jul 15, 2023 |
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Jul 15, 2023 17:26
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China and Russia already run their own ruble/yuan exchange , since, I think, 2014 so I think that's covered
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Jul 15, 2023 17:59
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the problem is not in the currency measure, the problem is in allowing other countries to have giant piles of renminbi like america allows other countries to have giant piles of dollars
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Jul 15, 2023 18:02
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I did some math today, enjoy. gonna be until september for core pce headlines to really have a chance to go away 
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Jul 15, 2023 22:11
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What’s the y axis?
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Jul 16, 2023 16:29
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bob dobbs is dead posted:emotionally and politically yes. financially, it would gut every large exporter, including china itself The other problem is that their interests aren't at all mutually aligned other than not wanting the US to be able to shut off the tap. Which, yeah, is a pretty strong incentive, but beyond that it's not like India and S. Africa are on the same page about a bunch of poo poo, much less everyone and China. Honestly, even if a BRICS international transfer system emerged to be a viable alternative to SWIFT, it's just going to mean towing the line for Beijing instead of Washington. There's a lot of "one of these things is not like the others" when you look at the relative economic power of China compared to all the others. India's the closest to being in China's league, but come on - South Africa? Russia? Brazil? loving drops in the bucket, relatively speaking. It might be a pretty compelling club if you don't want to worry about your elites getting sanctioned when you invade a neighbor, but it's also going to be problematic when Beijing leans on you to give them favorable investment deals as part of Belt & Road.
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Jul 16, 2023 17:22
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DNK posted:What’s the y axis? year-over-year Core PCE percent change
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Jul 16, 2023 17:25
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Cyrano4747 posted:The other problem is that their interests aren't at all mutually aligned other than not wanting the US to be able to shut off the tap. Which, yeah, is a pretty strong incentive, but beyond that it's not like India and S. Africa are on the same page about a bunch of poo poo, much less everyone and China. I would argue that it's more than a "pretty strong incentive" -- it would create a choice where right now there is no choice. Your currency is either pegged to the dollar (or petrodollar) or nothing. To make a food analogy (because I'm hungry right now) imagine if there was only one diner in your town. If you want to eat a meal you don't cook yourself, you have to go there. They set the terms, the prices, the menu, etc. Then suddenly a mediocre but still edible Chinese food place (that also serves pelmenis, curries, caipirinhas, and uh, whatever they eat in South Africa) opens up next store. Sure, the Chinese food is just okay, but it's another option where there wasn't one before. The diner sees that the Chinese place is putting a dent in its business so now it has to lower its prices a bit, serve better quality food, let kids under 6 eat for free, etc. They're not the only game in town anymore. That's a powerful position to lose.
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Jul 16, 2023 18:37
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