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fatherboxx)
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Hasn't foreign support for Ukraine effectively dried up tho? There is a severe scarcity of weapons and equipment, not to mention vehicles. Ukraine has no air force to speak of and is down to the last shells that the US has dug out of the basement. Meanwhile, their manpower supply is far, far smaller than Russias to begin with. What is the point at which they negotiate peace? lol what the heavy armor and long range weapons transfers have only just begun
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Jul 12, 2023 17:18
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Warbadger posted:Not to mention Russia didn't fight Afghanistan, the Soviet Union did. With a tremendously larger military available, only a fraction of which was engaged in the fight. On the other hand, some of the tanks used in Afghanistan are now fighting in Ukraine... fatherboxx posted:You think so? Even with a depressed mobilization reserve there is probably about 1 million more they can realistically force into the army gradually through 3-4 waves, which sounds like at least 3-4 years of grindy war until it breaks at the current casualty rate. I think the bigger limitation is equipping them with something that resembles modern standards. Infantry equipment is expensive these days! Unless you downgrade to Army of DNR/LNR standards, at which point I would expect men to start deserting en masse. --- I find the talk about civil war premature. Of course there could be unrest, coup attempts, mutinies, even rebellions. Russia experienced many of those in the 1990's but there was no civil war. Morrow posted:Russia is so centralized in Moscow that you won't see a civil war. There will be a power struggle in the capital, but whoever controls it will control the country. They may have less authority over regional governments than Putin did but at the end of the day no one is going to try to make a break for it. This, too. We should look in the past at how power was transferred in 1953 or 1991, rather than 1917. By which I mean that a few years from now you will see Putin in Pizza Hut and Louis Vuitton commercials
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Jul 12, 2023 17:20
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Quixzlizx posted:I don't think this is true. I don't think NATO will want to funnel tons of money and equipment into a forever stalemate that stretches for years, or they'll at least stop providing what's needed for offensive breakthrough attempts if the Ukrainians are repeatedly burning those extra resources on doomed offensives that don't regain any ground. Even stalemating it for years without giving up the relatively thin strip of land needed to bring the railroads under artillery fire seems on the outer edge of what is possible. Pretty much everything going forward would have to go right for the Russia in a war where they've done everything wrong.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:22
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Ukraine has an ammo shortage because the West is running out of readily available supplies and has to crank up production to keep up. It's not due to lack of will or interest.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:22
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Starsfan posted:doesn't Ukraine have all of these same problems as well except to an even greater degree? Well not so much the sanctions granted, although Ukraine didn't have much of a productive economy in the first place (and what they had was concentrated disproportionately in the areas of the country that are now contested or occupied by Russia). Ukraine has the aid faucet I suppose, but it seems like that's becoming much more tenuous lately. Ukraine has the aid faucet and that isn't drying up any time soon. When the conflict is over you will see massive investment from the West into Ukraine as well. There was already a huge demand for Ukrainian IT and Engineering before the war but I am sure that demand will be even higher afterward. If there was uncertainty for aid drying up I believe that you would see a mad rush of equipment and anything else needed to end things quickly. Ukraine has also lost far fewer troops than Russia, granted there is a huge difference in population but their losses are not unsustainable currently. fatherboxx posted:You think so? Even with a depressed mobilization reserve there is probably about 1 million more they can realistically force into the army gradually through 3-4 waves, which sounds like at least 3-4 years of grindy war until it breaks at the current casualty rate. Well that would be them pulling every "trained" enlisted member and sending them to the front. Russia has a lot of land it needs to defend and a lot of borders. This isn't even counting their deployments elsewhere. Tossing more untrained or poorly trained goobers into their lines honestly would only hasten their collapse. Toss an average person into a war zone and see how they handle their first artillery barrage let alone anything else. You think goobers know how to hide themselves from drones or thermals? As we saw in Bakhmut human wave attacks in modern warfare just are massacres. In modern warfare you need trained bodies, one person with good training is worth ten or more poorly trained and probably fifty untrained. It is like the talk earlier of smaller squads being used today. With better training and equipment you can be much more effective with ten guys than an entire platoon was in Vietnam. We have seen in real time the liability of poorly trained soldiers are again and again in this.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:22
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Herstory Begins Now posted:buddy we love dumping a generation's of wealth into a decades long quagmire, it's the only thing we know. betting on the US not deciding to spend a decade or more pouring resources into a war is not a smart bet over the last half century. Except now a significant percentage of Republicans are so shameless and ideologically bankrupt that they'll even rail against spending billions of dollars for stuff that will end up blowing up Russians if they think it'll make Democrats look bad. And Trump is a total wild card who probably has some deranged petty grudge against Ukraine for "getting him impeached." I agree that any other Republican candidate wouldn't even consider immediately jamming their arm into the works.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:26
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mustard_tiger posted:This entire post is wrong. A great poster in this thread posts weekly updates of all the equipment that is being sent and planned to be sent to Ukraine. Can you link one of them?
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Jul 12, 2023 17:27
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Cpt_Obvious posted:and is down to the last shells that the US has dug out of the basement. Are you fishing for people to get probationed for explaining to you why this is flat out incorrect?
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Jul 12, 2023 17:27
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Herstory Begins Now posted:lol what Some people get their war updates primarily from sources who want you to think Russia is winning so would be unaware of this.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:29
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fatherboxx posted:You think so? Even with a depressed mobilization reserve there is probably about 1 million more they can realistically force into the army gradually through 3-4 waves, which sounds like at least 3-4 years of grindy war until it breaks at the current casualty rate. Even before the mutiny Putin had announced that they weren't doing the planned mobilization because
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Jul 12, 2023 17:29
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mustard_tiger posted:This entire post is wrong. A great poster in this thread posts weekly updates of all the equipment that is being sent and planned to be sent to Ukraine. I agree that there is alot of equipment planned to be sent to Ukraine but that's kind of starting to become a problem now.. As time has went on a higher and higher percentage of these aid packages that the US and other countries have promised to Ukraine have consisted of stuff that hasn't even been manufactured yet and will only be sent along when it comes available. So I guess that can be a positive if you look at the perspective that there's this trailing tail of years and years worth of aid shipments that have already been guaranteed to Ukraine and they will prospectively be receiving all of this in the future, but it's a big problem if Ukraine feels compelled to act now but the material they need isn't available. We've already heard from General Zaluzhny - and I'm sure he can speak for alot of people in the military in Ukraine- that he feels like Ukraine haven't been given what they were promised and now they were compelled to fight this offensive (I guess if not by pressures from NATO, if for no other reason than not wanting to let Russia have even more time to prepare their network of defensive fieldworks) without the resources available to them that anyone else in NATO would consider essential to launch such an operation. You're starting to hear this narrative more and more out of Ukraine that they've been given plenty of lists and promises that other countries are going to source equipment for them and then the poo poo never arrives and what is sent is often not what was promised. Ukraine's backers have to up their game quite frankly. It's disgusting that Ukraine is putting themselves out on the limb with this offensive and these countries that are supposed to have their back aren't coming through for them.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:32
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Djarum posted:Ukraine has the aid faucet and that isn't drying up any time soon. When the conflict is over you will see massive investment from the West into Ukraine as well. There was already a huge demand for Ukrainian IT and Engineering before the war but I am sure that demand will be even higher afterward. If there was uncertainty for aid drying up I believe that you would see a mad rush of equipment and anything else needed to end things quickly. Oh sweet lord I just realized that they will need housing. Given that half of the workforce in Poland is already from Ukraine, I cannot even imagine how happy will the housing developers like Robyg or Górski be once it's time to rebuild. They will certainly throw themselves at any government contract from Ukraine they can get, and will get to underpay workers even more because it's gonna be a patriotic effort to rebuild the country. Humankind doesn't know the word for the height from which I spit on those greedy fuckers, but imagining them getting even fatter from a project like this makes me even madder.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:38
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mustard_tiger posted:What about Georgia and Chechnya? Georgia... is not part of Russia Chechnya is very invested in being in the federation due to massive amount of money poured into it. Kadyrov has done a good job to eliminate separatists, exiles are not a danger to his regime. Djarum posted:Well that would be them pulling every "trained" enlisted member and sending them to the front. Russia has a lot of land it needs to defend and a lot of borders. This isn't even counting their deployments elsewhere. Tossing more untrained or poorly trained goobers into their lines honestly would only hasten their collapse. Toss an average person into a war zone and see how they handle their first artillery barrage let alone anything else. You think goobers know how to hide themselves from drones or thermals? As we saw in Bakhmut human wave attacks in modern warfare just are massacres. In modern warfare you need trained bodies, one person with good training is worth ten or more poorly trained and probably fifty untrained. It is like the talk earlier of smaller squads being used today. With better training and equipment you can be much more effective with ten guys than an entire platoon was in Vietnam. We have seen in real time the liability of poorly trained soldiers are again and again in this. For every dumbass who doesnt know which end of the rifle shoots there is someone who got training - those mobilized are on the frontline now and Ukrainian command is pretty open about how new manpower for Russia has been a problem. Regarding equipment it is hard to make guesses but Russian army still has a shitload of tanks (even if old), artillery, mines and aviation for years of nonstop war it seems.
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Jul 12, 2023 17:48
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And it's not just who Russia sends on the front, it's where they're from. Since they are pulling from the more rural areas where going to the army is a real chance to improve your life, they have a fairly secure postion in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Once those areas are emptied from men fit to fight, there will be noone to gather for an uprising there. Even those who come back (assuming they get paid, this is the uncertain part), despite seeing the horrors of war will be hesitant to do so, as they will now enjoy life with luxury and prestige (and lifelong injuries and PTSD). Those who live in Moscow and St. Petersburg have already won life anyway, so they also don't have any incentive to stir the pot. They are also aware that they are surveyed more than the general population and need to be on their best behaviour or they might just piss off the wrong people and disappear. So they've really played their cards right so there is little chance of any civil war/rebelion/uprising. So that possibility is as real as the nuclear one.
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Jul 12, 2023 18:00
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quote:Volodymyr Zelenskiy has thanked Germany on his Telegram channel for agreeing to send more Patriot launchers and missiles to Ukraine after speaking with Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Nato summit in Vilnius. In a message, Ukraine’s president posted: zelenskiy says ukraine will be receiving more patriot launchers and ammunition. no amount or timeline, and not clear if this will backfill expended missiles, or actually expand ukraine's coverage. and if it does expand coverage, will it be used to try to stop the few russian missiles that still get through to the cities, or to help cover the critical portions of the counter offensive
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Jul 12, 2023 18:13
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:zelenskiy says ukraine will be receiving more patriot launchers and ammunition. no amount or timeline, and not clear if this will backfill expended missiles, or actually expand ukraine's coverage. and if it does expand coverage, will it be used to try to stop the few russian missiles that still get through to the cities, or to help cover the critical portions of the counter offensive I've always been suspicious (admittedly without evidence) of the USA's ability to keep up with the production of our high tech weaponry in an extended conflict. I will be interested to see what actually gets supplied, but I'm skeptical.
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Jul 12, 2023 18:22
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It will be interesting to see what the Ukrainian leadership was feeling pressure from to conduct this offensive, but we'll probably never know unless one of them releases a memoir decades from now. It seems like a stop of western aid is not a concern and indeed, the NATO promises (if they aren't empty), makes it seem that the west is still committed. I would be very surprised if there were backroom talks that made it seem that western support was in jeopardy in any way. Maybe internal morale is a problem? My personal bet is that they feel the window for fully regaining all their territory is closing if they don't outperform expectations, but that's just idle speculation.
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Jul 12, 2023 18:40
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Kikas posted:Oh sweet lord I just realized that they will need housing. Given that half of the workforce in Poland is already from Ukraine, I cannot even imagine how happy will the housing developers like Robyg or Górski be once it's time to rebuild. They will certainly throw themselves at any government contract from Ukraine they can get, and will get to underpay workers even more because it's gonna be a patriotic effort to rebuild the country. Oh yeah. There will be massive money made by exploiting the local populace. Granted I think that it is worth it in the short term since the rebuilding being done far outweighs the loss of financial gain. Ukraine's long term prospects look good as long as their government can keep it's poo poo together. fatherboxx posted:For every dumbass who doesnt know which end of the rifle shoots there is someone who got training - those mobilized are on the frontline now and Ukrainian command is pretty open about how new manpower for Russia has been a problem. Yes and no. At a certain point you are going to lose out on the folks that have specialized training. For example pilots don't just appear, it is years of training to get a capable pilot. Yeah you can train any goober off the street how to shoot a rifle, load an artillery piece or even drive a tank to a certain extent. As time goes on those that know how to do the harder stuff will dry up. That is not even counting stuff that isn't as sexy like logistics officers but are probably more important than everything else. It is why Ukraine destroying command posts and supply depots are the most important things they can be doing. Taking out the guys that know where poo poo is and how to get it from A to B along with the guys leading means you have a massive degradation in capabilities. daslog posted:I've always been suspicious (admittedly without evidence) of the USA's ability to keep up with the production of our high tech weaponry in an extended conflict. I will be interested to see what actually gets supplied, but I'm skeptical. I think if the US ever got into an actual real extended conflict you would see the MIC spin up incredibly fast. You aren't seeing anyone doing it right now since there isn't anyone with deep enough pockets and high enough need to justify it. The artillery shell production is getting spun up currently worldwide but most are banking on the Ukrainian conflict to be done sooner than later, so there will be only a need to refill existing stockpiles for a relatively short amount of time. That being said if there was a major conflict in which existing stockpiles were depleted you would likely see simplified stuff being made quickly. WWII is a perfect example as the US started with the Thompson as the standard SMG and ended with the Grease Gun. Things would be stripped the absolute bare minimum needed and made as quickly as possible.
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Jul 12, 2023 18:57
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Djarum posted:
I hesitate to say this because it’s sort of pedantic but sort of not. Industry mobilizing for war isn’t the MIC. The MIC is industry that produces things for war taking steps to ensure there is a constant demand for their product. When “defense” is a major industry and your governmental system is easily influenced by money, the defense industry will push for policies that lead to more war, or at least more hysteria to justify giving them more money.
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Jul 12, 2023 19:09
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Can you link one of them? How about first you supply sources for your post about how absolutely everything is going wrong for Ukraine and wondering when they will sue for peace. I think that would be a good place to start. Your claims that is.
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Jul 12, 2023 19:56
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Are the driver compartments on modern tanks separated from the rest of the crew or is it one big crew compartment?
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Jul 12, 2023 20:13
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Grape posted:How about first you supply sources for your post about how absolutely everything is going wrong for Ukraine and wondering when they will sue for peace. If the counteroffensive hasn't failed and every single one of Ukraine's western tanks and IFVs haven't been blown up, then why does Russia Today keep insisting that it has, huh smart guy!?
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Jul 12, 2023 20:33
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there are continuing signs that the russian economy is flaggingquote:Russia's economic woes are worsening, with the latest blow coming in the form of a collapse in its current account. my uninformed opinion is that secular trends are probably more responsible for the collapse in russian oil profits than sanctions, but either way it seems to undermine the assumption of mid to late 2022 that a long war necessarily favored russia. i'm a bit suprised by how significantly the ruble has fallen in the wake of the wagner episode, especially given that it seems to be continuing to fall even weeks after the whole thing seems fairly wrapped up
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Jul 12, 2023 20:34
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:there are continuing signs that the russian economy is flagging I'm not sure which is more responsible than the other. Due to the sanctions Russia has to sell their oil at a discount now, and their costs haven't decreased, if anything they've risen, so their oil revenue is way down.
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Jul 12, 2023 20:49
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Mr. Apollo posted:Are the driver compartments on modern tanks separated from the rest of the crew or is it one big crew compartment? I can't speak definitively for non-US equipment, but in both the Abrams and Bradley the compartments are linked by a small pass-through.
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Jul 12, 2023 20:58
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Grape posted:How about first you supply sources for your post about how absolutely everything is going wrong for Ukraine and wondering when they will sue for peace. The ISW do some regularly updated maps that are pretty useful for seeing this    It seems like Russia has successfully held onto eastern Ukraine for 8 months now with no major territorial changes since they withdrew from Kherson
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Jul 12, 2023 21:10
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Okay, let's talk about this offensive. A few thoughts:
I've seen some reports that indicate the Russian brigades in reserve positions are few weeks ago are in direct contact with Ukrainian forces. If true this is very interesting, because it means Russia is willing to expend reserves to save territory, rather than using a flexible defense and let Ukraine attrit itself against better defensive lines. Why does this matter? If Russia attrits itself responding to Ukraine's assaults before Ukraine even reaches the first main defensive belt, Russia will have fewer troops to man that defensive belt. Meanwhile, Ukraine has committed some but not all of its Western-equipped brigades, and has non-Western-equipped brigades allocated to this offensive as well which is has not yet committed. Remember all of those memes in 2022 that "Russia has not yet sent its real army?" That's not entirely true for Ukraine, but it's not necessarily far off in some ways. Ukraine very much retains its operational reserve. If Russia can't man its first defensive line by the time Ukrainian units get there, this thing could go mobile in a hurry. Edit: It seems my post was very a propos in terms of timing given Enjoy's territory-focused sources just above. Double edit: I'll point out that a map of Iraq in 1991 would have shown similar non-changes from 17 January 1991 to 23 February 1991. I don't expect anything like the ground campaign of that war, but it is illustrative of the perils of myopic information biases. Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Jul 12, 2023 |
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Jul 12, 2023 21:16
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Enjoy posted:The ISW do some regularly updated maps that are pretty useful for seeing this Either you have no idea what post I'm referencing for sources, or you're making lots of random assumptions based on a slow counteroffensive (which did not begin 8 months ago) and expect us to make the same assumptions. Either way, the presentation of this as bad for Ukraine if we start post-Kherson/Izyum/Kiev is basically "incredible shrinking Israel" levels of disingenuous non-argument.
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Jul 12, 2023 21:20
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Enjoy posted:The ISW do some regularly updated maps that are pretty useful for seeing this To quote an illustrious vatnik: "Time will tell".
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Jul 12, 2023 21:20
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Enjoy posted:The ISW do some regularly updated maps that are pretty useful for seeing this in the period of time covered by this post, according to russian probate records, Ukraine inflicted more than double the casualties Russia took in 9 years in afghanistan
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Jul 12, 2023 21:26
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Grape posted:Either you have no idea what post I'm referencing for sources, or you're making lots of random assumptions based on a slow counteroffensive (which did not begin 8 months ago) and expect us to make the same assumptions. To be fair: the second picture is from the day before the offensive. I believe that's what Enjoy is trying to illustrate.
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Jul 12, 2023 21:27
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Ynglaur posted:To be fair: the second picture is from the day before the offensive. I believe that's what Enjoy is trying to illustrate. Pictures summarized with the following argument. "It seems like Russia has successfully held onto eastern Ukraine for 8 months now with no major territorial changes since they withdrew from Kherson"
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Jul 12, 2023 21:31
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Oh I agree it's a shallow argument. It's an understandable one, though. Human brains happily fill in information gaps all the time. I'm trying to point out that the information available to us isn't actually sufficient to judge the current success or state of the offensive, other than it's slower than Ukraine's president would like.
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Jul 12, 2023 21:37
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Grape posted:Pictures summarized with the following argument. It's good to remind people that the Kherson counter-offensive started on August 2022 and didn't start to capture significant territory until October and Russia wasn't removed from the territory until Nov - and this was with a huge geographic advantage for Ukraine. It shouldn't amaze anyone that this one hasn't performed better than Kherson. The minefields are far worse than expected, but it'll be a good couple of months before you can start to say "ok, maybe this isn't going anywhere". The fact that there have been no major territorial changes during 7 months of Russian offensive and 1 month of Ukrainian counter-offensive is still pretty good for Ukraine. Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Jul 12, 2023 |
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Jul 12, 2023 21:49
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^^edit: I don't think it's a great comparison because Kherson had some different factors at play.. there were much fewer Russians in Ukraine at that time (it was pre-mobilization) and the Russians retreated primarily due to logistical concerns rather than being driven out of their defensive positions by the pressure of Ukrainian attacks.. And I'm aware there are arguments out there that Ukraine is striking Russia's logistical capability every day and that things could get dicey on the southern front at some point, but I have a hard time believing that Ukraine could ever put the sort of pressure on Russia's supply lines here that they could exert in Kherson where those lines extended over a huge river. I've also seen people argue that Russia is about to run out of soldiers to man the front and ok... that might be possible I guess, but it would just make their apparent reluctance to fall back to the stronger and more advantageous defensive lines that I've noted below even more confusing. At some point you have to decide in analysis of the situation to either give your opponent some credit for being rational and not completely incompetent, and in my opinion if we give Russia even the slightest amount of credit their actions do not align with a force that is almost spent. The thing I don't really understand as pointed out by Ynglaur is why Russia hasn't given way more to these defensive positions that they have spent so much time and resources installing.. I mean I understand that where they are fighting now is the front edge of the network of lines that the Russians have prepared so are technically fighting in it as things stand now, but it seemed apparent and obvious that the reason you create defenses in depth (some estimates I've seen is that the system in the south extends back in excess of 50 kilometers from the current front) is for the exact purpose of being able to fall back when you come under pressure. I don't find it plausible that suddenly Russia is completely unwilling to surrender these little 3 street farm hamlets that have no actual value in a military sense besides providing the least imaginable amount of temporary cover.. that's actually something I more associate with the way that Ukraine has fought in this war. I guess it makes sense that Russia doesn't want to give Ukraine something that can be construed as a territorial victory while this *NATO summit is going on and Ukraine's backers are mulling over how to proceed with this conflict but that seems like a pretty thin justification to not use the purpose built fieldworks that you have spent billions of dollars assembling and months planning for exactly this circumstance. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jul 12, 2023 |
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Jul 12, 2023 21:52
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You mean the NATO summit right?
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Jul 12, 2023 21:56
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It would be funny if Russia ran out of mines that were stored adequately and only the preliminary line was fully mined, which lead into them rushing reserves to fill the holes in the first line. But my honest take is that it's a gamble to make that very first line the main defence line because there is time to do so and because giving ground is politically unviable even when it's militarily recommendable. In any case, it's very polite to bring the attritional fight closer to Ukraine's starting positions.
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Jul 12, 2023 22:02
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spankmeister posted:You mean the NATO summit right? yeah sorry my bad, that's what I get for juggling all these things in my head at once.. Again, It doesn't make sense to me that Russia would be motivated by what was going on at the NATO summit.. those people have a more clear view of what the situation is than we do obviously, and I don't see how their assessment of the situation is going to change at all whether Russia falls back 5 km or 1 km..
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Jul 12, 2023 22:03
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Nenonen posted:It would be funny if Russia ran out of mines that were stored adequately and only the preliminary line was fully mined, which lead into them rushing reserves to fill the holes in the first line. But my honest take is that it's a gamble to make that very first line the main defence line because there is time to do so and because giving ground is politically unviable even when it's militarily recommendable. In any case, it's very polite to bring the attritional fight closer to Ukraine's starting positions. Comedy prediction : they rushed the soldiers’ train too much and they literally can’t defend in depth. No one on the ground really knows how.
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Jul 12, 2023 22:08
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Starsfan posted:yeah sorry my bad, that's what I get for juggling all these things in my head at once.. The more orthodox voenkors have been arguing rather desperately that this will be the time where a NATO summit leads to everyone deciding that Ukraine isn't worth supporting [because the offensive wasn't an instant, huge success and that everyone should give up and let Russia win]. there's been a fair amount of Russian messaging around this and I expect it to end up as fruitless as every other instances of 'western support will dry up for Ukraine any day now' I'd actually love to know where they come to that conclusion each time because it's just profoundly disconnected from reality. idk if they're like actually listening to the Scott Ritters or what, but someone is feeding them a lot of bullshit and enough people apparently want to believe that that it gets repeated around as if it will actually happen Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Jul 12, 2023 |
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Jul 12, 2023 22:13
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