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Dull Fork posted:I hate these polls because they never do the simplest thing and ask a follow up question for the favorable/unfavorable. They never want to find out if these people who are unenthused for Biden, are unenthused because he isn't left enough, or because he is too far left. (If I am wrong I'd love to see more national-level polls) So now we get to trudge through another election season of hand-wringing articles about 'why don't the youth vote?!' and the evergreen conclusion of 'tack more towards the center to get moderates!' instead of getting actual answers. As I've pointed out, it's not about polling as much as it's about trends adjacent to polling, such as whether younger voters identify as Democrats or if they see politics as a meaningful path toward change. And as Lux & Lake pointed out in their memo, young voters are an important constituency, and it will help Democrats to pay attention to their needs & get them to vote. Since younger voters almost always support the most-left stances on issues, it's specious to contend that the results would end up pushing Dems to hand-wring about moderate voters from the analysis.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:38
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zoux posted:Ok what's the other plan to quickly get everything we want forever that is easy and not exhausting? Because I agree, we should do that. I don't believe I mentioned the speed. I concede that a lot of things will be exhausting, but currently, the vote harder movement is exhausting with little results. Again, the Dems had a chance to codify Roe and they did not. They had a chance to do a lot of good things, but didn't. Anyway, stop voting blue no matter who. It just puts lovely people in power and gives them more influence to entrench themselves and make it difficult to get rid of them. You reward their bad behavior with power by voting blue no matter who. quote:I wouldn't vote for a transphobe but I don't think that's likely to happen in the Democratic party, which is probably the most LGBT friendly major party anywhere in the world. Didn't we just have a Democrat vote for a transphobic bill in Texas? I know you wouldn't personally vote for such a person, but if she were the only democratic choice, "vote blue no matter who" says that you should vote for the transphobe. Mellow Seas posted:This is not a choice I have ever been faced with, personally, nor have most Democratic voters. Because almost all Democrats voters support those things, and so their candidates do, and those who don’t are a rounding error.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:41
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plogo posted:And the while the strategy for the anti abortion movement might have included "vote harder", it was not "vote red no matter who", the movement has been extremely confrontational within the party and has been a contributor to the ongoing factional wars in the GOP. You see things like David Brat beating Eric Cantor a lot more than you see things like AOC beating Joe Crowley. (Then again, electing Brat was probably a terrible idea because now that district is blue and will be for the foreseeable future.)
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Jul 13, 2023 19:44
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I’ve never seen anybody ever tell somebody they need to “vote harder” and I don’t know where this stupid, implicitly pejorative description of GOTV efforts comes from, but it sure does get used here a lot. As an aside it is a fun exercise to talk about politics in a context where the most basic ideas like “you are more likely to accomplish things the more you win elections” are constantly challenged, and I’m not being disingenuous. There are a lot of things that I have assumed in my life that were corrected by that kind of radical interrogation, much of it taking place here. “Everything possible must be done to keep Republicans out of office” is not an assumption I have found to be inaccurate, though. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 19:48
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zoux posted:The plan is "voting harder" and "for blue no matter who". That's what the GOP did, they didn't have a 20 step plan to controlling the courts laid out in 1974. They just kept voting for their guys in specials, in midterms, on-cycle and off. They got lucky with vacancies, but they also helped to make their own luck there and the Dems had the opposite of that. Actually, it was far more involved than Vote Red or You're Better Dead: It involved strategic planning at the local & state level; an emotional appeal to voters invested in particular issues like abortion; an appeal to younger conservatives; and kind of the opposite of VBNMW inasmuch as GOP moderates were primaried out of existence. Otoh, the Dem state parties are primarily huge clusterfucks attempting to outdo each other in being miserable failures; Dem politicians at the federal & local levels squelch the left except on culture issues; and Dem politicians find it hard to coalesce as a unified voice when it comes to issues of importance to most voters--and especially when voters prefer solutions that anathema to capital.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:50
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Mellow Seas posted:And a lot of that factional war happens in primaries. I feel like - no numbers - that on the right side it’s the moderates who go for the shiny “independent” box, restricting their own power in the process, and on the left side it’s the more radical voters. (I’m probably just looking at too much internet.) I know it's a short amount of time, but a good amount of demographic shifting happened between the time Brat was elected and the time Spanberger ran.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:52
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Mellow Seas posted:I’ve never seen anybody ever tell somebody they need to “vote harder” and I don’t know where this stupid, implicitly pejorative description of GOTV efforts comes from, but it sure does get used here a lot. zoux posted:The plan is "voting harder" and "for blue no matter who". That's what the GOP did, they didn't have a 20 step plan to controlling the courts laid out in 1974. They just kept voting for their guys in specials, in midterms, on-cycle and off. They got lucky with vacancies, but they also helped to make their own luck there and the Dems had the opposite of that. U good?
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Jul 13, 2023 19:52
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trevorreznik posted:Souter is a load bearing justice in a lot of these examples. Replace him with say, Bork (I jest, but surely there was a comparable comparison to Kennedy/O'Connor that Souter was picked over ), and it's a much, much different court. To state the obvious, those were all very much Republican appointments, the difference between Republicans and Democrats is Republicans don't mind criticizing the politics of their appointments and the Democrats don't want to criticize the institution at all (because they are very stupid). The reason the court is as conservative as it is is because the Republicans successfully gamed the appointments, that some of their many appointments were not as conservative as their most diehard ideologues would have hoped is incidental to the larger project.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:53
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theCalamity posted:I don't believe I mentioned the speed. I concede that a lot of things will be exhausting, but currently, the vote harder movement is exhausting with little results. Again, the Dems had a chance to codify Roe and they did not. They had a chance to do a lot of good things, but didn't. Anyway, stop voting blue no matter who. It just puts lovely people in power and gives them more influence to entrench themselves and make it difficult to get rid of them. You reward their bad behavior with power by voting blue no matter who. We'll see if Shawn Thierry is the Democratic nom for that HD in '24, but I wouldn't vote for her if I lived in her district going forward, I just wouldn't cast a vote in that particular race. Also my calculus on national politics is much different from that on state politics, where we're in such a worse position here that it doesn't really matter what strategy we use. But like I don't care if a politician is personally against abortion if he or she votes for abortion rights. Bigotry is a different matter. Gumball Gumption posted:U good? Oh I was absolutely using that derogatorily, ridiculing the common leftist position on electoralism that I see constantly. On Twitter. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 13, 2023 19:54
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Willa Rogers posted:Otoh, the Dem state parties are primarily huge clusterfucks attempting to outdo each other in being miserable failures;
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Jul 13, 2023 19:55
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zoux posted:Yeah but these voters weren't voting for Democrats in general elections. Primary fights, go at it, that's what they're for. Leftists have tried, only to have Nancy Pelosi & Jim Clyburn campaign for an anti-abortion Democrat while they were on the House leadership team, for example. And even though Pelosi is no longer leadership; she's actively maneuvering to elect the least-progressive candidate as the next senator from California.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:55
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SAG-AFTRA is going on strike in a few minutes.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:56
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Mellow Seas posted:Republicans in Connecticut or Vermont or Washington don’t cover themselves in glory either. It’s hard to attract the best and brightest to lose elections over and over.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:56
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zoux posted:
Pop up fact, Anthony Haden-Guest is half brother to Christopher.
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Jul 13, 2023 19:58
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DynamicSloth posted:To state the obvious, those were all very much Republican appointments, the difference between Republicans and Democrats is Republicans don't mind criticizing the politics of their appointments and the Democrats don't want to criticize the institution at all There was an absolute torrent of criticism from every part of the party and it was pivotal in having a relatively successful election. I think people have a tendency to read one quote from some moderate spouting empty platitudes about “our institutions” and then ignore the 100 corresponding instances of a campaigner saying “can you believe these motherfuckers?” To state the obvious you seem to be working backwards from a conclusion.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:00
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mawarannahr posted:Pop up fact, Anthony Haden-Guest is half brother to Christopher. I did not realize Guest was english, much less a titled noble e: also that he's been married to Jaime Lee Curtis since 1984!
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Jul 13, 2023 20:00
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zoux posted:Also my calculus on national politics is much different from that on state politics, where we're in such a worse position here that it doesn't really matter what strategy we use. But like I don't care if a politician is personally against abortion if he or she votes for abortion rights. Bigotry is a different matter. Mellow Seas posted:As an aside it is a fun exercise to talk about politics in a context where the most basic ideas like “you are more likely to accomplish things the more you win elections” are constantly challenged
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Jul 13, 2023 20:00
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zoux posted:I wouldn't vote for a transphobe but I don't think that's likely to happen in the Democratic party, which is probably the most LGBT friendly major party anywhere in the world. You might not have voted for him, but this is the guy for whom the DNC bent rules so he could participate in its debates after he threw the party a ton of money: quote:Michael Bloomberg has sure had a lot to say about transgender people. Past remarks about us made by the billionaire former Republican mayor of New York turned billionaire 2020 Democratic presidential candidate keep making news in a way that’s emblematic of how the trans community remains a political football. https://www.teenvogue.com/story/michael-bloomberg-transphobic-remarks-trans-people-political-football So the DNC actually has that blood on its hands, much as Pelosi & Clyburn do from having supported Cuellar.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:01
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zoux posted:Do you have particular examples of squishy-on-abortion Republicans who are thought to have lost races to conservative anti-abortion Dems? I mean in the 80s and 90s, a bunch. One example would be Bob Casey Sr. beating an anti abortion guy to get into the governor's mansion. However, for any individual race it would be hard for me to show that the specific tipping point was abortion.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:02
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theCalamity posted:Didn't Henry Cuellar vote against abortion rights? And buddy if voting for Democrats isn’t going to help then pack it in. Cornell West is not gonna solve our problems.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:03
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DynamicSloth posted:Republican appointees have been the majority of the court since 1973 and most like Thomas are probably being quietly bribed not to retire during Democratic administrations, good luck with your plan to swipe it back from them through voting, but you'll probably need to clean sweep every general election from now until 2040. It doesn't just require controlling the entire government, it requires controlling it by a considerably-sized majority, since something as extreme as packing the court will almost certainly not get unanimous support even within the party. FDR won a historic landslide victory in 1936, and the Democrats held a whopping 75 seats in the Senate, but FDR's court-packing legislation still failed by a massive margin. While the political dynamics have changed quite a bit since then, I think it's safe to say that if Dems had a large enough majority to pack the court, they would also have a large enough majority to just pass laws instead of relying on presidential and judicial fiat to force things through without Congressional support. And while it's entirely possible that the Supreme Court might overturn those laws anyway, it's by no means guaranteed - the Roberts Court has made quite a few rulings along the lines of "if you want this to happen, then the legislature needs to pass a law to do it, instead of trying to get the other two branches to invent new powers for themselves". Fork of Unknown Origins posted:It’s a failure of the US political system that sometimes to do the least harm you have to vote for someone who is bad. But it’s still the system. Blaming the issue on "the system" is a copout, imo. If the general election is between two candidates that are bad, then the problem is that no good candidates were able to out-campaign those bad candidates. While there are issues such as incumbency advantages and the cost of campaigning and the power of party endorsements, I personally feel like people complaining about bad candidates are often far too quick to dismiss the possibility of "lots of people thought this candidate was great, even though you and all your friends didn't". If an absolutely terrible candidate makes it to the general, then that means that either a good candidate didn't run against them, or the good candidate lost to them (typically by a landslide). But if the good candidate was really that good and popular, and the bad candidate was really that bad and unpopular, then a Pelosi endorsement and a few doomsaying media articles wouldn't be enough to stop the good candidate from winning. And if nobody is even bothering to run on policies we consider good, then the policies we consider bad might not be as unpopular in our areas as we wish they were.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:05
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I’m unfamiliar with all of the issues but the “neener neener it’s not “airing”” that’s been pulled on writers and actors of shows that go to streaming to screw them out of residuals is enough to fully support the strike. And I’ll bet the rest is just as bad.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:05
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theCalamity posted:Didn't we just have a Democrat vote for a transphobic bill in Texas? I know you wouldn't personally vote for such a person, but if she were the only democratic choice, "vote blue no matter who" says that you should vote for the transphobe. 4 of them, actually, along with a 5th that was present but didn't vote. The bill had been killed earlier but was revived by Democratic Rep Harold Dutton in retaliation against the Dems for something or other quote:A bill to ban gender affirming medical treatments for minors and urge doctors to wean current patients off this care is one step from becoming law in Texas. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2023/05/12/ban-on-gender-affirming-medical-treatments-for-youth-approved-in-texas-house/ I don't disagree with the core thesis folks are saying that (as a person of trans experience) any day of the week I'd prefer a Dem to a Republican, and 5/56 Dem Reps being transphobic sure beats 87/87 Republican Reps being transphobic, but yeah transphobic Dems aren't that rare, especially not on a state gov level. burnishedfume fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 20:08
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Marianne Williamson's third campaign manager has quit and 6 more campaign staffers quit following that. Her national field director posted a long complaint on Facebook shortly after he was fired because he was pressuring her to secure ballot access instead of holding media events. He alleges that she wanted to focus on promoting her upcoming book and social media instead of running a campaign. He also claims that she said she didn't care about ballot access because it was "mythical stuff."   Another staffer recorded a Zoom call she had and leaked it. https://twitter.com/politico/status/1679563920858652678 quote:Most recently the campaign lost more than six staffers in one week, including the former field director who took to social media to accuse the Williamson campaign of being more of a book tour than a run for office. quote:One supporter on the call suggested that she could quiet the critics who said she was merely trying to turn a profit by making her book free for a week. Williamson bristled at the idea. quote:Time and again during the two-hour call, Williamson returned to the dire financial state of her campaign, to which she already loaned $100,000 in 2023, according to a financial disclosure from the first quarter of this year. She was questioned several times about turning to her old celebrity connections, but said she wouldn’t reach out to Oprah Winfrey. “Oprah will let me know if ever she’s interested,” she explained. quote:A best-selling author and spiritual guru, Williamson blamed several factors for the current financial status of her campaign. Among them, she alleged, were the press’ focus on internal turmoil and a concerted effort by her political opponents to sabotage her operations. She agreed with a volunteer on the Zoom who said that “DNC insiders” and efforts from the Democratic Party are determined to “undermine her campaign.” Williamson said she discussed the theory “quite a bit” with her campaign manager Carlos Cardona. quote:Williamson said she believed that “the DNC, Biden, whomever” were working to stunt her popularity on TikTok, where she has millions of viewers. quote:In another exchange, she called fellow Democratic primary challenger Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who announced that he raised $6 million in his first financial disclosure, the “bright, new, shiny object” this cycle. quote:Williamson did say she had emailed actress Laura Dern, her former roommate, and had not gotten a reply. At another point in the call, she said that even former presidential candidate Andrew Yang has reneged on an offer to stump for her South Carolina. Yang told POLITICO that he did not extend such an offer. quote:Asked, at one point, how she combats the critics and political opponents looking to undermine her, Williamson pointed to the Zoom itself as a counterbalance.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:08
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Mellow Seas posted:No it’s almost exactly the same, because 90% of the argument about whether Dems can change things are not are based on them not doing something that they couldn’t because they didn’t win elections… That's because you're assuming that a Democratic politician is automatically good and wants the things we want. We had plenty of Dems at the beginning of Obama's admin to codify Roe. They held the House and Senate in 2020 and couldn't even get election reform passed. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 13, 2023 20:09
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Main Paineframe posted:
I agree with what you’re saying. I’m not saying the system is responsible for bad candidates (though there are ways in which it does, like the influence of money), I’m saying the system (first past the post voting) sometimes gives us a choice between bad and worse. In that situation, when you show up to the poll on Election Day, you only have two true options. If you don’t vote or if you vote for a third party you are effectively giving a half vote to the worse option. There are arguments to be made that it’s worth doing anyway, as perhaps the long term good of shoving the party to the left. Let’s say an election went 45% Republican, 40% centrist Democrat, 15% independent leftist. That sends a resounding message. But in the meantime the Republican is in power doing Republican things to people who are getting harmed in real life. So it’s a very complicated thing to me, and again I will normally fall on the utilitarian “vote for the least bad person who might win” which is, in every case I know of, the Democrat. But again I agree with you and talked about it earlier in the thread. Fork of Unknown Origins posted:That’s correct.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:13
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I’m unfamiliar with all of the issues but the “neener neener it’s not “airing”” that’s been pulled on writers and actors of shows that go to streaming to screw them out of residuals is enough to fully support the strike. And I’ll bet the rest is just as bad. SAG-AFTRA posted:Our goal in this negotiation is to ensure our members working in film, television and streaming/new media can continue to earn a professional living with a contract that honors our contributions. We need a contract that will increase contributions to our benefit plans and protect members from erosion of income due to inflation and reduced residuals, unregulated use of generative AI, and demanding self-taped auditions.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:13
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I’m unfamiliar with all of the issues but the “neener neener it’s not “airing”” that’s been pulled on writers and actors of shows that go to streaming to screw them out of residuals is enough to fully support the strike. And I’ll bet the rest is just as bad. If you were familiar with all the issues you'd be even more supportive. It's some real bullshit. burnishedfume posted:4 of them, actually, along with a 5th that was present but didn't vote. The bill had been killed earlier but was revived by Democratic Rep Harold Dutton in retaliation against the Dems for something or other Small, pedantic note: the bill Dutton resurrected was actually the ban on trans kids participating in sports conforming to their gender expression at the UIL level in 2021. Dutton may or may not be a transphobe but he is an rear end in a top hat and he brought that up as chair of Pub Ed because he couldn't get his TEA takeover of HISD bill through because his fellow Ds wouldn't vote for it, so he was like gently caress You Then. Certainly the outcome of his action was transphobic, which is what counts. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Marianne Williamson's third campaign manager has quit and 6 more campaign staffers quit following that. Oh so now she's against mythical stuff all of a sudden zoux fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 20:14
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burnishedfume posted:4 of them, actually, along with a 5th that was present but didn't vote. The bill had been killed earlier but was revived by Democratic Rep Harold Dutton in retaliation against the Dems for something or other State politics get real weird. For years in WV the Democrats were aligned with national Republicans and Republicans didn’t really exist. That’s changed over the last couple decades though.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:16
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I’m unfamiliar with all of the issues but the “neener neener it’s not “airing”” that’s been pulled on writers and actors of shows that go to streaming to screw them out of residuals is enough to fully support the strike. And I’ll bet the rest is just as bad. good article summarizing the problems the summation is that the rules that netflix uses are based on a time when the only streaming content was "five minute Lost webisodes on ABC.com" meaning they get residuals only after it's been on the platform for a year (imagine how well netflix only content does a year after release) and for fractions of what other residuals are to the point where it's better money to guest star on an episode of law and order special victims unit once in 2006, then it is to be like third-in-billing on a netflix show. quote:Glenn is best known for playing the motormouthed, idealistic inmate Brook Soso on the women’s-prison series “Orange Is the New Black,” which ran from 2013 to 2019, on Netflix. The orchid-pink paper listed episodes of the show that she’d appeared on (“A Whole Other Hole,” “Trust No Bitch”) alongside tiny amounts of income (four cents, two cents) culled from overseas levies—a thin slice of pie from the show that had thrust her to prominence. “I was, like, Oh, my God, it’s just so sad,” Glenn recalled. With many television and movie sets shuttered, she was supporting herself with voice-over jobs, and she’d been messing around with TikTok. She posted a video in which she scans the statement—“I’m about to be so riiich!”—then reaches the grand total of twenty-seven dollars and thirty cents and shrieks, “WHAT?”
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Jul 13, 2023 20:17
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theCalamity posted:That's because you're assuming that a Democratic politician is automatically good and wants the things we want. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Marianne Williamson's third campaign manager has quit and 6 more campaign staffers quit following that.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:17
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:It’s a failure of the US political system that sometimes to do the least harm you have to vote for someone who is bad. But it’s still the system. And it's not even really the US two-party system that creates that; it's a property of representative democracy. In countries with thriving multi-party systems you still hear the constant refrain of "I know they're not pro-immigrant enough but the people who are want to cut the social safety net" or "Okay, other than the anti-science bits they're more committed to fighting climate change" or other compromises. Or else you pick the party you like across the board but they're going to have to form a coalition with one of those you hate to have any say in policy. If they get any seats: if your own views are niche enough the perfect fit might not get any at all. It's pretty lovely but the alternatives are direct democracy (That'd be fascinating to see in the corporate social media era) or various systems where you get even less say about policy..
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Jul 13, 2023 20:20
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Marianne Williamson's third campaign manager has quit and 6 more campaign staffers quit following that. Probably good news for RFK Jr. as the last opponent standing, not that it'll make a difference for Biden.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:20
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I’m gonna go ahead and say that the Williamson campaign’s problems do not increase or decrease Mr Kennedy’s chances at the nomination.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:22
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Killer robot posted:And it's not even really the US two-party system that creates that; it's a property of representative democracy. In countries with thriving multi-party systems you still hear the constant refrain of "I know they're not pro-immigrant enough but the people who are want to cut the social safety net" or "Okay, other than the anti-science bits they're more committed to fighting climate change" or other compromises. Or else you pick the party you like across the board but they're going to have to form a coalition with one of those you hate to have any say in policy. If they get any seats: if your own views are niche enough the perfect fit might not get any at all. The problem with FPTP is you’re whittled down to two choices. With proportional representation or even RCV there’s room for candidates you don’t have to compromise on so many things with. But FPTP practically enforces a two party system.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:23
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Mellow Seas posted:I’m gonna go ahead and say that the Williamson campaign’s problems do not increase or decrease Mr Kennedy’s chances at the nomination. 0 * anything is 0 so yes.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:24
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 Since it came up I’m gonna pet-peeve-vent and say the name “First Past the Post” drives me loving crazy. There’s no post! The number you have to beat is a moving target! How can that be a post??? Who’s first at what????? I know, I know, it’s just an expression and it’s not really important but geez.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:30
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I watched a recent Black Mirror episode the other day where the premise was a streaming company AI-generating a TV show based on a random person's life and that person getting none of the revenue - something tells me the writers and actors were intimately familiar with the experience
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Jul 13, 2023 20:33
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Craig K posted:good article summarizing the problems Also, a SAG-AFTRA guy (who I don't recognize personally) just said the AMPTP suggested giving extras one day's pay for eternal rights to AI usage of their image. THAT'S hosed up.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:33
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e: ^^^ jesus christBougieBitch posted:I watched a recent Black Mirror episode the other day where the premise was a streaming company AI-generating a TV show based on a random person's life and that person getting none of the revenue - something tells me the writers and actors were intimately familiar with the experience to be honest it seems like an awful large part of the explosion of moving to streaming content is because of the ability to pay everybody involved sweet-gently caress-all and also not have to deal with that pesky "doling out credit for who's responsible for what" thing
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Jul 13, 2023 20:34
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