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Soul Dentist
Mar 17, 2009
Here's the CE thread before this one got started. January 2022 is available too

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Computer viking
May 30, 2011
Now with less breakage.

cr0y posted:

Does anyone have any links to the threads immediately before the invasion? (archives no doubt). Id be fascinated to read how it was going down hour to hour and day today.

This is the first GBS thread: World War Threead: Ukraine's counter offensive is a ploy to win the war.

BBC was somehow the first one to call the start of the invasion proper, on page 24:

Big Beef City posted:

It's started.
They're shelling Mariupol.

Bonus points for this, a few pages later:

Cream-of-Plenty posted:

In memoriam, Finland will join NATO and pledge to "be the best Ukraine it can be."

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
Watch Finland join a NATO

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

Handsome Ralph posted:

My favorite was "Aircraft carriers are completely useless now thanks to missiles!"

What's everyone's favorite dumb "<mainstay military equipment> is useless thanks to <military equipment I don't really understand>" take?

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

Kchama posted:

Oh wow, WRN is Mark Ames. That would explain why he's so drat wrong and stupid.

No. It's John Dolan, who co-hosts a podcast with Ames.

Dolan's qualifications:

- his doctoral thesis at Berkeley was "Sadean sympathy: genre, pathos and intention in the fiction of the Marquis de Sade".
- won the Berkeley Poetry Prize in 1988
- Taught at a university in New Zealand
- Married a student
- Edited eXile, where he hooked up with the Ames/Levine crowd.
- Taught ESL in Saudi.
- Taught poetry in Iraq
- Edited NSFWCorp, the tech VC-funded Vegas-based successor to eXile with much of the same people
- read a lot of Jane's.

Basically, he's a scruffy granola grover.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

GD_American posted:


Basically, he's a scruffy granola grover.

Sounds like that would crumble easily

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

cr0y posted:

Does anyone have any links to the threads immediately before the invasion? (archives no doubt). Id be fascinated to read how it was going down hour to hour and day today.

The current Cold War/Air Power thread has been open since 2020, and Putin's announcement of the "special military operation" is on page 505, so you can go backwards from there for stuff in the days/weeks leading up, or forwards for more goon reaction as stuff unfolded (There's also a fair bit of crossover between that thread and this one).

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Herstory Begins Now posted:

IDK if it's even about rot so much as 1) the plan itself was unworkable and built on huge misestimations of Ukrainian strength and resolve (and ultimately of foreign response, as well) 2) the plan did not play to Russia's strengths and comparative advantages and 3) the opening blunders crippled Russia's offensive power in a way that they could not rapidly recover from. Had Russia started the war with their traditional doctrine of maximizing artillery mismatch and grinding Ukraine down instead of trying to capture the country intact within hours, we might be having a different conversation. Russia's artillery capabilities historically have been far less affected by 'rot' than most of their other capabilities.

On a related note, 1 and 2 above were certainly knowable and a number of former officers were writing about how suicidally stupid the planning was in advance of the invasion, but the military leadership (as in the part of the military leadership that came up through the military and not as political appointees) were heavily sidelined from the planning for as long as possible.

this piece is practically a meme at this point, but it remains an entirely prescient refutation of most of the fundamental assumptions that the Russian invasion was planned under
https://archive.is/k8qGV (original link is https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html, but I archived it for people who understandably do not click .ru links)

Got this part wrong tho

"No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine"

Those flowers made the news.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Does anyone have the post of the guy explaining how Russian troops get fresh bread baked twice daily?

Saukkis
May 16, 2003

Unless I'm on the inside curve pointing straight at oncoming traffic the high beams stay on and I laugh at your puny protest flashes.
I am Most Important Man. Most Important Man in the World.
This is a long drone video of assault at Russian trench. Interesting footage showing how such an assault proceeds. Lot's of casualties. Does make me think that a claymore drone could be quite useful.

quote:

A longer video of an (older) assault on Russian positions by assault units of the 3rd separate assault brigade, the 28th brigade and TERRA unit in the area of Kurdyumivka.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1680168273634099202

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

psydude posted:

Does anyone have the post of the guy explaining how Russian troops get fresh bread baked twice daily?

Not far off

They get meat cube now

McNally
Sep 13, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?

cr0y posted:

Does anyone have any links to the threads immediately before the invasion? (archives no doubt). Id be fascinated to read how it was going down hour to hour and day today.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3992479

Here's the February 2022 current events thread. Archives not needed.

lol beaten

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


Coquito Ergo Sum posted:

What's everyone's favorite dumb "<mainstay military equipment> is useless thanks to <military equipment I don't really understand>" take?

Honestly, either "carriers are useless cause of missiles!" or "tanks are obsolete because of ATGM!"

The number of people I saw parroting the later for the few few months of the invasion was just, lol. Combined arms is not a hard concept to grasp and yet.

Wrong Theory
Aug 27, 2005

Satellite from days of old, lead me to your access code

Coquito Ergo Sum posted:

What's everyone's favorite dumb "<mainstay military equipment> is useless thanks to <military equipment I don't really understand>" take?

Don't say you like the A-10 or a bunch of nerds will jump on you.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Handsome Ralph posted:

Honestly, either "carriers are useless cause of missiles!" or "tanks are obsolete because of ATGM!"

The number of people I saw parroting the later for the few few months of the invasion was just, lol. Combined arms is not a hard concept to grasp and yet.

There are also a ton of people who seem to think that carriers independently deploy and go into hostile coastal waters to launch missions.

SlowBloke
Aug 14, 2017

Stultus Maximus posted:

There are also a ton of people who seem to think that carriers independently deploy and go into hostile coastal waters to launch missions.

Maybe they played too much hostile waters and carrier command?

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

kill me now posted:

It reminds me about the fears leading up to Desert Storm and how the Iraqi army was this battle hardened 4th largest military in the world at the time and how the US and coalition forces were in for a big knock down drag out fight.

That the massive stockpile of body bags for casualties ended up going almost entirely unused was not the expected result at the time. But now that we look back, how could there have been any other result knowing what we now know about their broken military.

Weren't these fears the result of grifters who wanted to sell their particular beloved weapon systems and/or tactics while not having any real clue if they were good or bad stoking poo poo and being amplified by the media?

GD_American posted:

No. It's John Dolan, who co-hosts a podcast with Ames.

Dolan's qualifications:

- his doctoral thesis at Berkeley was "Sadean sympathy: genre, pathos and intention in the fiction of the Marquis de Sade".
- won the Berkeley Poetry Prize in 1988
- Taught at a university in New Zealand
- Married a student
- Edited eXile, where he hooked up with the Ames/Levine crowd.
- Taught ESL in Saudi.
- Taught poetry in Iraq
- Edited NSFWCorp, the tech VC-funded Vegas-based successor to eXile with much of the same people
- read a lot of Jane's.

Basically, he's a scruffy granola grover.

Thanks for the correction! For some reason Google cut off Dolan's name and showed Ames so I had the wrong idea.

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



psydude posted:

Does anyone have the post of the guy explaining how Russian troops get fresh bread baked twice daily?

Check my post history in this thread, I think my earliest posts here were mocking that.

e: my second post, responding to someone who quoted a CSPAM post.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Icon Of Sin posted:

Check my post history in this thread, I think my earliest posts here were mocking that.

e: my second post, responding to someone who quoted a CSPAM post.

Oh right, it was the guy who doxxed himself (pretty futilely) to prove that Russians will win forever.

"The Russians don't need logistics like NATO does, they have infinite tanks and supplies already."

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Icon Of Sin posted:

Check my post history in this thread, I think my earliest posts here were mocking that.

e: my second post, responding to someone who quoted a CSPAM post.

Lol holy poo poo I just looked at bread guy's post history in that thread.

Frosted Flake posted:

Russia doesn’t need to call up Reserves for units with the BTG organization. That was the point of those army reforms. A hard core of professional all-year fighting power with no reservists or conscripts.

Additionally, unless the Reservists were just on those wargames, they would need time to assemble and work up. Even what the soviets used to call iirc Class A Reserves*, that just draw vehicles from units and not mobilization centres, have been in the field somewhat recently etc , it would take at least a while for them to get up to speed - during general mobilization for WW3 or wargames for a limited conflict. B and C echelons have a lower peacetime readiness and need to draw equipment and assemble, they only have small peacetime cadres. *

If Divisional size units start getting up to establishment strength and tank and motor rifle units start drawing vehicles from war storage, it should only be another reason for Zelensky to sign Minsk II or surrender.

iirc Russia has ~600 T-80’s active and 3000 in storage*. I realize there are different readiness categories there, a large portion of them have not been fully modernized, some are stored for parts or export etc etc, but the point is that calling on the Reserves to fill units to full strength, that’s the end of Ukraine if they want it to be. Any war so intense that Russia is concerned their regulars will be fought out would destroy the Ukrainian state. So why not avoid that entirely?

What about not signing Minsk II is worth that kind of confrontation? Do you know what I mean? If that force is getting ready to come to grips with you, there’s nothing you can do.

Suppose Russia does call up Reservists - that still gives a few days, 1-3, maybe more these days, where they are getting notices, assembling, getting cosmolene off their equipment, doing refamiliarization, getting formed into units - that’s all time to work out a diplomatic solution.

I realize that’s why it works as a bluff, but it’s also a very compelling reason to sign loving Minsk II, goddamn.

*May not be current to 2021

Frosted Flake posted:

Even if they have limited goals, and I hate to say it, you don’t half-rear end the conduct of operations.

They’d still need to cripple the Ukrainian military, destroy their army on the field, their air force on the ground, air fields, supply dumps, any headquarters.

So uh if they are doing something, they will essentially do so much that the road to Kiev is open and the Ukrainian state will be happy to reach for a ceasefire. That’s what happened in 2014 when the Russians came in - they shattered the Ukrainian Army in the field and presented them with a ceasefire.

Having the US pump them up to reject it, in hindsight, might’ve led to their army being destroyed again and being presented with worse terms.

Zelensky’s ability to end this before being presented with fait accompli seems to be fading by the moment.


Frosted Flake posted:

Okay, I want everyone to pay attention:

If Russia pulled off Day-One airborne and amphibious assaults to strategic depth, they are not only back as a world power, they have executed one of the most impressive military operations since the Egyptian crossing of the Suez Canal and effectively won the war (as in military decision) within the first hour.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlt_yikWNzY

I’ll see what’s circulating in the trades tomorrow but goddamn. 20 years ago most of the VDV wasn’t jump qualified and the Naval Infantry wasn’t able to venture out of port.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Holy poo poo, someone was more wrong than loving grover

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Holy poo poo, someone was more wrong than loving grover

Funny how by March he stopped posting anything about Ukraine and Russia.

Stravag
Jun 7, 2009

That amount of carrying that if was doing lol

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 3 days!)

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Holy poo poo, someone was more wrong than loving grover

I am suspicious the poster in question tends to avoid this subforum. Would I be near the mark?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
he didn't use to

my favorite ff story is he posted one day that his wife gave him an ultimatum to waste less time posting about ukraine online so he was going to be around posting less. he lasted about one day before he was back posting full-time again

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

What was really funny was how they were convinced that the Russian thrust towards Kyiv was about to totally encircle the city a week after everyone else had realised that the attack had stalled out and was at significant risk of getting rolled up by its own flanks.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 3 days!)

Alchenar posted:

What was really funny was how they were convinced that the Russian thrust towards Kyiv was about to totally encircle the city a week after everyone else had realised that the attack had stalled out and was at significant risk of getting rolled up by its own flanks.

I noted that at the time and was really worried I was missing updates because all I was reading was the RuAF getting it's poo poo pushed in anytime if moved forward.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

They used to post here. This forum used to have a sizeable Greenwald tankie population; I'm guessing they were a part of it.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 3 days!)

Stultus Maximus posted:

Funny how by March he stopped posting anything about Ukraine and Russia.

He still posts where nobody disagrees with him.

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT

Rust Martialis posted:

He still posts where nobody disagrees with him.

Ah an Epstein thread poster LMAO

Fake edit: eat my rear end in a top hat you antivax fucks

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007
There's people who have read every dumb and obviously wrong in both hindsight, foresight, and sight post, nod and go "You are the most correct person I have seen."

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



McNally posted:

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3992479

Here's the February 2022 current events thread. Archives not needed.

lol beaten

Thanks, it's been absolutely wild re-reading how this went down back in Feb of 2022.

Like...
https://twitter.com/MattMcBradley/status/1497672326606950409?t=yvafl0WXIrvtWHT-Rk1K3w&s=19

AlternateNu
May 5, 2005

ドーナツダメ!

Handsome Ralph posted:

My favorite was "Aircraft carriers are completely useless now thanks to missiles!"

I mean. Current gen hypersonics may make that a reality. It'll just take the U.S. and China going into an all out shooting war to see if he's right. :v:

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

AlternateNu posted:

I mean. Current gen hypersonics may make that a reality. It'll just take the U.S. and China going into an all out shooting war to see if he's right. :v:

They'll make aircraft carriers exactly as obsolete as the machine gun has made infantry obsolete.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

AlternateNu posted:

I mean. Current gen hypersonics may make that a reality. It'll just take the U.S. and China going into an all out shooting war to see if he's right. :v:

IIRC, China's hypersonics are based largely upon Russian tech. Russian hypersonics have been routinely shot down by Patriot PAC-II and PAC-IIIs. I'd expect Aegis to be even better.

AlternateNu
May 5, 2005

ドーナツダメ!

A.o.D. posted:

They'll make aircraft carriers exactly as obsolete as the machine gun has made infantry obsolete.

Eeeeehhhh. I don't think the two are comparable, but that's beyond the scope of the thread.

psydude posted:

IIRC, China's hypersonics are based largely upon Russian tech. Russian hypersonics have been routinely shot down by Patriot PAC-II and PAC-IIIs. I'd expect Aegis to be even better.

This is what everyone hopes. :v: There's a lot of theory beyond the threat, and it'll be interesting if nothing else if things actually come to fires.

Handsome Ralph
Sep 3, 2004

Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!


AlternateNu posted:

I mean. Current gen hypersonics may make that a reality. It'll just take the U.S. and China going into an all out shooting war to see if he's right. :v:

He was making this claim circa ~2003 or so. Like yeah sure, if hypersonics work in reality as they do on paper, he might be right, but making that claim 20 or so years ago doesn't make him "right".

It's also failing to remember this,

Stultus Maximus posted:

There are also a ton of people who seem to think that carriers independently deploy and go into hostile coastal waters to launch missions.

Honestly a lot of his stupid as gently caress takes suppose the USN shrugs at new developments in adversarial tech and don't bother to do anything to counter/protect their ships.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

Kchama posted:

Weren't these fears the result of grifters who wanted to sell their particular beloved weapon systems and/or tactics while not having any real clue if they were good or bad stoking poo poo and being amplified by the media?

Thanks for the correction! For some reason Google cut off Dolan's name and showed Ames so I had the wrong idea.

Some of it was, but some was real concern. America hadn't faced an enemy as combat capable at scale since the 60s.

Saddam had just fought one of the bloodiest wars in recent memory. His Army had combat experience, and masses of military age males through conscription. His Army had been getting various technical and tactical upgrades during the Iraq Iran War from various world players.

AlternateNu
May 5, 2005

ドーナツダメ!

Handsome Ralph posted:

He was making this claim circa ~2003 or so. Like yeah sure, if hypersonics work in reality as they do on paper, he might be right, but making that claim 20 or so years ago doesn't make him "right".

Oh, yeah. I know. :thejoke:

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Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

bulletsponge13 posted:

Some of it was, but some was real concern. America hadn't faced an enemy as combat capable at scale since the 60s.

Saddam had just fought one of the bloodiest wars in recent memory. His Army had combat experience, and masses of military age males through conscription. His Army had been getting various technical and tactical upgrades during the Iraq Iran War from various world players.

Yeah but that wouldn't have scared people near that much if we hadn't kept being told our navy could easily be crushed by a fleet of motorbikes with anti-ship missile launchers and light-speed comms and teleportation devices because we had too much technology.

Kchama fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jul 16, 2023

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