- Stringent
- Dec 22, 2004
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The progress China has made in renewable energy just THIS YEAR makes the entire rest of the world look like it's standing still.
I wrote in December that to call China the "world leader in renewable energy" was a colossal understatement.
That’s even more true today.
Thread 🧵
Huainan floating solar farm in Anhui Province.
Huainan floating solar farm in Anhui Province.
Even the Western press considers the PRC's climate target to be all-important to preventing complete global disaster. It was estimated to reduce projected temperature by 0.3 degrees Celsius, the largest *drop* ever calculated by climate models.
Did Xi Just Save the World
?
In a little-noticed speech this week, China permanently changed the global fight against climate change.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/25/xi-china-climate-change-saved-the-world
Climate science groups called it the "most important announcement on global climate policy in at least the last five years."
Anyone doubting that the PRC is willing and capable of not just fulfilling, but exceeding, its goals is not paying attention.
China going carbon neutral before 2060 would lower warming projections by around 0.2 to 0.3 degrees C
https://climateactiontracker.org/press/china-carbon-neutral-before-2060-would-lower-warming-projections-by-around-2-to-3-tenths-of-a-degree/
Each year from 2020 to 2022, China installed about 140GW of new renewable electricity capacity, more than the US, the EU, and India put together. (A gigawatt is enough to power 750,000 homes.)
This is from November; the 2023 column was only an estimate.
https://t.co/gbrGSLZMUXft.com/content/33ca0d…
Chart of renewable energy capacity additions from 2019-2023 by country or group. Source: the International Energy Association, published by the Financial Times.
https://www.ft.com/content/33ca0d1b-6173-4ce1-a072-a8d3c0b492be
In December, ground was broken on the world's largest desert renewable energy project in Inner Mongolia.
The IEA estimated China would add 80GW of new solar capacity in 2023; in February, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association said between 95 and 120
China solar power capacity could post record growth in 2023
China is expected to add 95 to 120 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 2023, or as much as 30%, a solar manufacturing association said on Thursday, in what would be a record annual rise in capacity.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-solar-power-capacity-could-post-record-growth-2023-2023-02-16/
Both are already wrong. In the first four months of 2023, nearly THREE TIMES as much new solar capacity had been installed than in the same period in 2022. China's NEW solar capacity installed this year will exceed the entire TOTAL in the US.
Graph comparing new solar capacity installations in China in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Source: China National Energy Administration, published by Bloomberg.
Chart showing updated forecast for China’s solar capacity from 2023-2030. Source: Bloomberg NEF.
In May, the chairman of Tongwei Solar predicted that new installations might fall between 200 and 300 gigawatts in 2024—almost TWICE the current US total.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-22/china-s-solar-power-boom-is-accelerating-past-last-year-s-record-surge
China of course builds more solar panels than the rest of the world combined—in 2021, over 80% of all stages of solar photovoltaic manufacturing occurred in China—but only a minority of them are installed IN China, which had only 36% of global demand.
https://t.co/m5z0xSwocoiea.org/reports/solar-…
Chart showing solar photovoltaic manufacturing capacity by country and region for 2021. Source: the International Energy Association.
Executive summary – Solar PV Global Supply Chains – Analysis - IEA
Solar PV Global Supply Chains - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv-global-supply-chains/executive-summary
Instead, they end up in places like Jujuy, Argentina, where the local government, turned down by US and European investors, reached out to China for funding to build a 300-megawatt solar farm. According to Reuters, it was ready to begin operating by 2019.
On South America's largest solar farm, Chinese power radiates
In an arid, lunar-like landscape in the sunny highlands of northern Argentina, South America's largest solar farm is rising, powered by funding and technology from China.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-china-solar-insight/on-south-americas-largest-solar-farm-chinese-power-radiates-idUSKCN1RZ0B2
It's not just solar energy that China does well. In 2021, China installed more offshore wind capacity in one year than the rest of the world combined had in the past five. As of January 2022, China operated half of all the world’s offshore wind turbines.
China Built More Offshore Wind In 2021 Than Every Other Country Built In 5 Years
New figures show China connected more offshore wind generation capacity last year than every other country in the world installed in the last five years.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2022/01/26/china-built-more-offshore-wind-in-2021-than-every-other-country-built-in-5-years
According a report by Global Energy Monitor in June, China is currently on track to DOUBLE its entire renewable energy capacity by 2025—five years earlier than the government's original target date of 2030.
China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time
Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader
China’s “nuclear pipeline” or the total capacity of all its new reactors under development, is also as big as the rest of the world’s combined, at ~250 GW. In 2021, 19 new reactors were under construction, 43 awaiting permits, and another 166 were planned.
Weekly data: China’s nuclear pipeline as big as the rest of the world's combined
China has a massive 228 nuclear reactors in development. If completed, these will have a capacity larger than Germany's entire power grid.
https://www.energymonitor.ai/sectors/power/weekly-data-chinas-nuclear-pipeline-as-big-as-the-rest-of-the-worlds-combined/
In April 2022, plans for another 6 new reactors were announced. China also has the most advanced and efficient reactors in the world, with no need for water cooling; in 2022, for example, the first “fourth-generation” reactor came online in Shandong.
China Starts Up First Fourth-Generation Nuclear Reactor
The first of two units at China’s much-watched high-temperature gas-cooled modular pebble bed (HTR-PM) demonstration project was successfully connected to the grid on Dec. 20. The achievement marks a …
https://www.powermag.com/china-starts-up-first-fourth-generation-nuclear-reactor/
According to calculations by economist Sean Starrs, the PRC controls an estimated 6% share of the world's most valuable capital.
Yet it has spent more on the energy transition than any other country since 2012.
Chart showing China’s actual share of ownership in the Forbes Global 500. From “Sign of the Times” videoblog interview with Dr. Sean Starrs on YouTube: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOFFF86TNAg
BloombergNEF’s chart showing total global energy transition spending by country and region from 2012 to 2021.
In fact, proportional to their share, the US contribution was 0.05% of China’s in 2021.
China is the ONLY country in the world that both has enough resources to make a real difference AND is actually treating the climate emergency like it’s an emergency.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/just-how-big-is-the-374-billion-us-climate-bill-in-global-terms
US temperature records are being broken TODAY. Death Valley may exceed 130 degrees Fahrenheit—the highest ever recorded ANYWHERE.
But there won't be a real response from the US government. The haste and urgency shown by China are utterly foreign to it.
washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/0…
Energy is only one aspect of the climate solution, though; China is ALSO far and away the world leader in EVERY OTHER aspect.
Since 1980, China doubled its forest coverage, planting more new trees than the rest of the world combined.
Forest in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. /VCG
Per the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, between 2010 and 2020 China had an average annual net gain in forest area of almost 2 million hectares, over 4 times as much as Australia’s (2nd-largest) and nearly 20 times as much as the United States’.
https://t.co/aPopqEafQnfao.org/3/ca9825en/CA9…
Table showing the top ten countries for average annual net gain in forest area from 2010–2020. From the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s Global Forest Resources Assessment Report, 2020, page 18.
In 2021, the government set a new target rate of afforestation of 36,000 square kilometers per year—or 3.6 million hectares, nearly double its previous rate, or enough new trees to cover the land area of Belgium.
China to step up tree planting campaign to help reach net zero
China will plant 36,000 square kilometres of new forest a year - more than the total area of Belgium - from this year to 2025 as it bids to combat climate change and better protect natural habitats, a…
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-step-up-tree-planting-campaign-help-reach-net-zero-2021-08-20/
China's shift to a green economy isn't just happening fast—it's still accelerating.
A pattern has emerged over the past several years where the government sets an ambitious environmental goal, then reaches it much earlier than expected.
In another example, the government set a goal of electric vehicles being 20% of all new car sales by 2025.
From 2016-2018, EV sales in China jumped from 1% to 5%. They reached 20% in 2022—three years ahead of schedule. (The US finally reached 5% in 2022.)
For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present.
More electric cars will be sold in the country this year than in the rest of the world combined, as its domestic market accelerates ahead of the global competition.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/china-electric-vehicles.html
Today, China produces more EVs than the rest of the world combined.
This required heavy state intervention; pilot programs, subsidies, government procurement, &c.
As of 2022, 98% of all electric buses in the world were deployed in Chinese cities.
Electric bus, main fleets and projects around the world
Electric bus adoption in urban public transport is growing all over the world. The main case studies and manufacturers in one single article. Here!
https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/
China's electric high-speed rail network is longer than every other country's combined, and continues to expand. In 2007 China had virtually no HSR; today, if they had been placed in one line, China's high-speed railways could wrap around the circumference of the Earth.
Map of China’s railways, 2008 vs 2020.
It's often said that HSR "loses money."
According to the Paulson Institute in Chicago, when accounting for not just revenue but passenger time and airline trips saved, China's HSR had generated a net surplus of nearly $400 billion as of 2022.
https://t.co/fGaWsaXyR0macropolo.org/digital-projec…
Cost analysis of Chinese high-speed railways, total -$1.98 trillion.
Benefit analysis of Chinese high-speed railways, total $2.36 trillion.
High Speed Rail - MacroPolo
Decoding China's Economic Arrival
https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/high-speed-rail/
Now, over three billion passenger trips are made on China’s railways each year.
Chinese companies have also built new high-speed rail lines that recently began operating in Laos and Indonesia, as well as many more conventional railways throughout the world.
Boten–Vientiane railway under construction.
Map of China-Laos-Thailand high-speed railway. Source: The Economist.
What about carbon emissions?
As the world's most populous country as of 2022, China could only by severe underdevelopment FAIL to rank first in emissions.
Per capita, China emits less than half as much as the US.
But these are both incorrect ways to think about the problem.
World Bank Data graph comparing China, the US, and Russia’s per capita carbon emissions from 2008 to 2019.
It's PRODUCTION, not population, that determine emissions; a majority are driven by industry, agriculture, and freight. China's emissions are proportional to its share of world's industrial manufacturing—manufacturing that the West outsourced to China to make more profit.
Western countries' disproportionate level of consumption is at the root of this issue. They didn't solve their carbon problem, they just exported it.
China, in fact, has not yet reached its 'fair share' quota of emissions given a 1.5 degree global increase, while the US and other Western countries have already far exceeded theirs.
Unroll available on Thread Reader
https://twitter.com/jasonhickel/status/1665737445546115076
Today, systems of production are globalized. All countries are part of the world-economy. It therefore makes little sense to isolate and blame the middle of the supply chain. EVERY country is complicit. Even if you don't want to be part of the problem, you'll be FORCED to.
The same isn't true for being part of the SOLUTION.
If you’re a peripheral country and you decide to stop exporting valuable raw materials, you may find yourself sanctioned, invaded, or couped. But if you start using more fossil fuels, you‘ll just get a scolding.
No other country is forcing China to lead the world in the conversion to a sustainable economy—in fact, the United States government has been trying to STOP it, for example by placing sanctions on China's photovoltaic manufacturing.
U.S. bans imports of solar panel material from Chinese company
The Biden administration on Wednesday ordered a ban on U.S. imports of a key solar panel material from Chinese-based Hoshine Silicon Industry Co (603260.SS) over forced labor allegations, two sources …
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-restricts-exports-5-chinese-firms-over-rights-violations-2021-06-23/
China's goal was peak emissions before 2030 and carbon-neutrality by 2060. Given how much Chinese renewables have overperformed recently, the peak will likely come sooner rather than later—maybe within the next two years. It may even already be passed.
China’s Green Revolution Is Quietly Succeeding
China is within striking distance of its ambitious wind and solar power targets for 2025. That is great news for the planet, but the boom is a mixed blessing for investors.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-green-revolution-is-quietly-succeeding-b1b12e95
China's emissions are mainly from coal. But Chinese coal-fired power plants are much different from Western plants.
Chinese coal plants have set the world record for efficiency, approaching 50%, compared with a typical Australian plant’s 30% efficiency.
Unroll available on Thread Reader
https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1600425624291905538
Back in 2017, the Center for American Progress reported that China’s coal sector was undergoing a “massive transformation” with superior technology—consuming less coal, emitting less carbon, and producing more power than the most advanced US plants.
Everything You Think You Know About Coal in China Is Wrong
China’s new coal-fired power plants are cleaner than ours—and stronger on climate change.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/everything-think-know-coal-china-wrong/
The PRC’s clean air policies not only cut air pollution almost in half between 2013 and 2020, but also drove a global decline in air pollution. (I.e. if China’s contribution were tallied separately, the overall rate would have increased, not decreased.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/china-s-clean-air-campaign-is-bringing-down-global-pollution
Violating China's environmental policies can lead to real punishment. In March 2021, four major steel mills in Hebei were caught falsifying records to evade carbon emission limits; the next year, dozens of executives responsible were sentenced to prison.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-28/china-jails-almost-50-steel-executives-for-faking-emissions-data
In contrast, though the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe killed several workers and was the largest marine oil spill in history, no one from BP spent even a day in jail.
As of this tweet, Norfolk Southern faces no criminal charges for the East Palestine train disaster in February.
Plume of toxic chemical gas from derailed train in East Palestine, Ohio, in February 2023.
Plume of toxic chemical gas from derailed train in East Palestine, Ohio, in February 2023.
Last summer, after weeks of struggle, the wildfires besieging Chongqing were driven back and extinguished; not just by water, sand, chemicals, or controlled burns, but by community.
Aerial photo showing the lights of firefighters' helmets as the wildfire approaches a fire barrier in Beibei district of Chongqing, August 2022. ZHOU XUAN/FOR CHINA DAILY.
Twenty thousand civil servants and volunteers climbed or biked up and down the mountain in the sweltering heat to deliver supplies and construct fire barriers; through their collective action, the cities were saved.
Chongqing residents unite to vanquish wildfires
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/29/WS630bf649a310fd2b29e74a35_1.html
The solutions to the climate apocalypse are collective and mundane—economic planning, technological development, and the redistribution of resources—but the freedom to pursue those solutions is very rare and very dear.
Presently, China alone seems to have this freedom.
Huainan floating solar farm in Anhui Province.
Also in China is the largest economic engine in history controlled by a Communist Party and a workers' state, that is not required by class interest to seek profit above all else.
Probably just a coincidence or something, idk.
Flag of the Communist Party of China.
Addendum to clarify something. Those pictures of floating solar panels aren’t in the ocean, but in a very large lake in Anhui Province. It’s actually a former coal mine that was filled with water, so the panels don’t take up space for farms, trees,
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1680589872434757632?s=20
quote:
The US says China should be pressured to “take significant, substantial action“ in fighting climate change.
"They should not able to hide behind any kind of claim that they’re a developing nation," National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan says.
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Jul 16, 2023 21:08
