(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's not a mistake. Isn't no labels funded by right wing billionaires? They know what they're doing. It's just vote splitting under a different flag. Lot of right-wing billionaires and people trying to play both sides. A lot of Sinema-lovers, as a note.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:24
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's not a mistake. Isn't no labels funded by right wing billionaires? They know what they're doing. It's just vote splitting under a different flag. They really don't. Just like with the RFK Jr. poo poo they aren't pulling candidates that might split any of the vote like in previous eras. Although this is more USPOL talk and should be taken there.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:24
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Irony Be My Shield posted:What is the feasibility of Turkey protecting Ukrainian shipments made without Russia's permission as they previously threatened to do? They did this last time and Russia immediately gave in, I see no reason it will be different this time, especially given Turkey's recent behavior towards Russia.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:26
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I wonder if the road section of the bridge also had infrastructure type connections, such as electrical/fiber optic. The post earlier that mentioned cell service being down in Crimea has me wondering...
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Jul 17, 2023 16:33
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I am used to only seeing nm in microchip discussions so the recent posts confused me alotHieronymous Alloy posted:It's not a mistake. Isn't no labels funded by right wing billionaires? They know what they're doing. It's just vote splitting under a different flag. dont respond to posts that clearly landed here by mistake
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Jul 17, 2023 16:34
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So if its naval drones, what were the videos of air defense about?
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Jul 17, 2023 16:35
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cr0y posted:I wonder if the road section of the bridge also had infrastructure type connections, such as electrical/fiber optic. The post earlier that mentioned cell service being down in Crimea has me wondering...
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Jul 17, 2023 16:38
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Why would attacking the bridge (in a crippling manner) not happen until now? Was it not strategically important because the front is so far away? Were they not able to do it (range/risk)? Maybe they’ve tried and this is the first to slip through what was formerly effective defense? I saw someone mention they didn’t have approval to use long range missile provided by the west until now? Maximize the headache being peak travel season?
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Jul 17, 2023 16:38
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Djarum posted:Russia isn’t about to spark an incident going after fishing boats in the Black Sea. Not if they've learned their lesson from 1904.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:41
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I've seen a few tweets saying that there are scorch marks on the underside of the bridge that aren't seen in the photos and videos shown so far. That suggests an attack from naval drones.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:54
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Mr. Apollo posted:I've seen a few tweets saying that there are scorch marks on the underside of the bridge that aren't seen in the photos and videos shown so far. That suggests an attack from naval drones. Yeah, the bridge section appears to have significant damage to the underside and little damage on top:  See the damage to the concrete in particular, as well as the extensive damage to the metalwork underneath the bridge, but very little damage to the metal barriers on the top. The metal does look charred underneath, but it's difficult to tell since it could just be corroded
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Jul 17, 2023 17:04
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:Why would attacking the bridge (in a crippling manner) not happen until now? Was it not strategically important because the front is so far away? Were they not able to do it (range/risk)? Maybe they’ve tried and this is the first to slip through what was formerly effective defense? I saw someone mention they didn’t have approval to use long range missile provided by the west until now? Maximize the headache being peak travel season? Without knowing internals that is effectively impossible to answer. They have been pretty clear that they don't like the bridge and want it gone, so my assumption is that they found an opening and took it. I don't think it's the first attempt, and probably won't be the last.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:04
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https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/07/us-paying-contractor-quietly-supply-bulgarian-155mm-shells-ukraine/388480/ Apparently Bulgaria got a contract to produce a whole bunch of 155mm shells. They likely have been making a bunch of 152mm before, but this may mean good production rates of the NATO version?
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Jul 17, 2023 17:10
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Damaging the bridge even briefly cuts supplies to the Russian army. That gives the Ukrainians an advantage. There are already reports on Twitter the land route out of Crimea is backed up 25 km.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:12
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Damaging the bridge even briefly cuts supplies to the Russian army. That gives the Ukrainians an advantage. There are already reports on Twitter the land route out of Crimea is backed up 25 km. The rail line is still operable which really makes me sad
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Jul 17, 2023 17:16
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Mid-Life Crisis posted:Why would attacking the bridge (in a crippling manner) not happen until now? Was it not strategically important because the front is so far away? Were they not able to do it (range/risk)? Maybe they’ve tried and this is the first to slip through what was formerly effective defense? I saw someone mention they didn’t have approval to use long range missile provided by the west until now? Maximize the headache being peak travel season? They seem to like attacking the bridge on symbolic dates. This is the mh17 anniversary.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:20
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The bridge shutdown & exodus of Russian nationals leaving could be an Intel boon for Ukraine as many may opt to switch their SIM cards to Ukrainian telecom networks.
MyMomSaysImKeen fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jul 17, 2023 |
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Jul 17, 2023 17:33
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fatherboxx posted:I am used to only seeing nm in microchip discussions so the recent posts confused me alot  Forget it Jake, this isn't SI townIn other news(Finnish source, apologies), there's some hubbub from Norway about re-structuring NATO command now that Finland and later on Sweden will be team buddies. Apologies for a Google translate, eh, translation, but it seems readable. Finnish Yleisradio posted:The commanders of the Nordic defense forces have brought up the idea of a joint NATO staff, from which the defense of the Nordic countries would be managed. The Norwegian magazine Klassekampen writes about the initiative . In the image, "yhteisoperaatioesikunnat" is "joint operations headquarters" in English, and Norja means Norway. I think the audience can figure out the rest.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:38
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that was fast but some gopniks have moved in.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:40
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MyMomSaysImKeen posted:The bridge shutdown & exodus of Russian nationals leaving could be an Intel boon for Ukraine as many may opt to switch their SIM cards to Ukrainian telecom networks. Is this your personal conjecture or have you seen this posited somewhere? I don't understand why Russians in Crimea would switch SIM cards. Also, not news but this is a comedy forum so I couldn't help but post this: https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1680933065269420033?s=20
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Jul 17, 2023 17:46
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Just Another Lurker posted:You can't do foreign politics in here, this is the War Room!!! Sorry! I thought I posted it in USpol.
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Jul 17, 2023 18:06
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Rappaport posted:I think the audience can figure out the rest. 
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Jul 17, 2023 18:58
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fatherboxx posted:I am used to only seeing nm in microchip discussions so the recent posts confused me alot It's capacitors in my case, nautical & electronic terms don't mesh... like batteries and seawater. edit: Mooseontheloose posted:Sorry! I thought I posted it in USpol. No worries. 
Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Jul 17, 2023 |
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Jul 17, 2023 20:07
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Forgive and probate me if this is Clancy-chat, but with the expiration of the grain deal, what are the thread's thoughts on U.S. Navy escorts for grain ships? Is that a bridge wayyy too far? On the one hand, it could lead to escalation; but on the other hand, people need food to live. I think it should happen if enough international pressure doesn't get Putin to sign onto a new deal, because I don't think Putin would want to risk escalation, particularly when what's being escorted is food; and I don't want people to starve. I assume there could be other better options. I believe someone in the thread mentioned Turkey threatening to do something similar, especially if grain from Ukraine is vital for their populace. That way it's not another situation where the U.S. is just rushing in uninvited. I don't know how powerful Turkey's Navy is, though.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:36
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funk_mata posted:I don't know how powerful Turkey's Navy is, though. In that scenario, it would be less important how strong their navy was, and more important that they're a member of NATO
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Jul 17, 2023 20:40
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funk_mata posted:Forgive and probate me if this is Clancy-chat, but with the expiration of the grain deal, what are the thread's thoughts on U.S. Navy escorts for grain ships? Is that a bridge wayyy too far? No there will be no US Navy in the Black Sea. There are a thousand options that are more likely. That would be a ww3 scenario.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:41
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lilljonas posted:No there will be no US Navy in the Black Sea. There are a thousand options that are more likely. That would be a ww3 scenario. Fair enough. I wasn't aware U.S. Navy presence (in that capacity) in the Black Sea would be a trigger. Thanks!
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Jul 17, 2023 20:42
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funk_mata posted:Forgive and probate me if this is Clancy-chat, but with the expiration of the grain deal, what are the thread's thoughts on U.S. Navy escorts for grain ships? Is that a bridge wayyy too far? I had to re-write this post several times, because every time I got far too insulting and had to stop myself. Why do you think the US should get involved? As you're even aware, Turkey is right there and has proven willing to run escorts for grain ships, if everything else falls through. The US Navy sending ships into the Black Sea would be a level of tone deafness worthy of Kaiser Wilhelm II. They're not wanted there and would make a huge mess no-one wants.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:43
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funk_mata posted:Forgive and probate me if this is Clancy-chat, but with the expiration of the grain deal, what are the thread's thoughts on U.S. Navy escorts for grain ships? Is that a bridge wayyy too far? Turkey controls the Straits (1936 Montreux Convention) and limits warship access during wartime.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:44
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Russia can't do anything if Turkey decides to escort the ships and they know this. They will capitulate under the guise of "agreement" before humiliating themselves by actually trying to block it.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:45
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funk_mata posted:Fair enough. I wasn't aware U.S. Navy presence (in that capacity) in the Black Sea would be a trigger. Thanks! The Black Sea is such a sensitive place that RUSSIA has not been able to send more of their ships there since the war begun, and the international rules governing the issue are so clear that they haven’t even tried to push it.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:47
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lilljonas posted:The Black Sea is such a sensitive place that RUSSIA has not been able to send more of their ships there since the war begun, and the international rules governing the issue are so clear that they haven’t even tried to push it. Almost correct.They can transfer smaller vessels through interior waterways.
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Jul 17, 2023 20:50
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i remember talk last year of expanding ukraine's rail connections with the rest of europe before the grain deal was put in place, anyone know if those plans kept moving forward in the background, or are the rail connections the exact same level of bottleneck to other european ports?
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Jul 17, 2023 20:54
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Theoretically Romania could escort the shipping, as it comes along their coast and as a NATO country Russia is unlikely to start engaging them on their own waters. But I have no idea if Romania desires that level of engagement and it would take very good security guarantees from both USA and Turkey for them to do that, as they have a crappy navy on their own. I think it would be more practical though if NATO based an airfleet there and make sure that the area stays safe for Ukraine's shipping. They are already flying a poo poo ton in the Black Sea area.
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Jul 17, 2023 21:02
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As others have said Turkey controls access to the Black Sea and will likely escort Ukrainian ships. Russia isn't about to open that can of worms.
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Jul 17, 2023 21:04
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i remember talk last year of expanding ukraine's rail connections with the rest of europe before the grain deal was put in place, anyone know if those plans kept moving forward in the background, or are the rail connections the exact same level of bottleneck to other european ports? The differing rail gauges means Ukraine needs to replace their entire rail network in order to fit the standard European gauge. It's not something that's going to happen overnight or even in a decade.
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Jul 17, 2023 21:08
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i remember talk last year of expanding ukraine's rail connections with the rest of europe before the grain deal was put in place, anyone know if those plans kept moving forward in the background, or are the rail connections the exact same level of bottleneck to other european ports? The shipping problem can't be solved with rail connections, period. They can be improved, but there's only so much you can do here. Ukraine doesn't use the same rail gauge as Poland and Romania so there's one bottleneck. But more importantly there's just no capacity in rail connections for all of Ukraine's grain, nor do the ports in Romania and Poland have capacity for the increased grain cargo. Nevertheless anything that can be diverted there is a small help. Even with grain shipping agreement in place, Ukraine can only transfer so much grain through Odesa when they used to have several port cities.
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Jul 17, 2023 21:10
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i remember talk last year of expanding ukraine's rail connections with the rest of europe before the grain deal was put in place, anyone know if those plans kept moving forward in the background, or are the rail connections the exact same level of bottleneck to other european ports? The issues there are two fold; one and probably most important is you can't transport as much via rail as you can by ship. You would need 100+ cars to equal the capacity of a bulk carrier. You are also spending much more time and fuel moving that much around as well. The second and more important issue is Ukraine I believe is still mostly on the old Russian standard of rails, which is a different size than what the rest of Europe uses. So you can only take the freight by rail so far before it needs to be transferred to another train which adds time, money and fuel costs. I assume as Ukraine is integrated into the EU over time their main railways at least will be converted but that takes time, money and you would prefer a active war not going on where you are utterly reliant upon the rail system being operational to get man and material in.
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Jul 17, 2023 21:11
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eh, makes sense, but disappointing nonetheless nato escort of a belligerent's shipping in contested waters seems like one hell of a step to take imo collective funding for shipping insurance seems like the way forward if there is a way forward outside of russia's cooperation
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Jul 17, 2023 21:19
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Hannibal Rex posted:Almost correct.They can transfer smaller vessels through interior waterways. Broke: amphibious assault on Odessa launched from Sevastopol. Woke: amphibious assault on Kiev launched from Lake Ladoga.
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Jul 17, 2023 21:38
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