USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

Charlz Guybon posted:

Like 10% of Trump voters previously voted for Obama. There are more than enough flip floppers to win or lose an election.

Seeing as those turned out to be mostly lifelong Republicans temporarily embarrassed by Bush on deeper examinination, I wonder how many of those flipped back in 2020/2022 rather than went full Trump.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 04:37

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# ? May 24, 2024 02:14

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

Killer robot posted:

Seeing as those turned out to be mostly lifelong Republicans temporarily embarrassed by Bush on deeper examinination, I wonder how many of those flipped back in 2020/2022 rather than went full Trump.

I feel there's a lot to be said about how from all appearances, the aw-shucks decorum and Respectable Opposition act has been nothing but a liability for Republicans, Trump the smug blowhard is exactly what they want. (Which makes it lol how Democrats have tried to rehabilitate Bush harder than Republicans ever will) The number of Obama-to-Trump voters also suggest quite a lot really do just go for the highest charisma score, which shouldn't really be surprising. Elections are literally a popularity contest.

You also legit get a lot of 'I never thought the leopards would eat MY face' and 'I never thought they would actually do it!'

# ? Jul 17, 2023 06:18

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

James Garfield posted:

And last year's Democratic turnout was bad as expected, the midterm was close because an unusually large number of 2020 Trump voters voted for Democrats.

Where are you getting this from? Everything I'm seeing indicates that Democratic turnout in 2022 was higher than typical, but lower than in 2018...which is hardly surprising, given that the Dems did well in the midterms but not as well as they did in 2018. Moreover, the data I'm finding says that very few people voted for a different party in 2022 than they had in 2020. Pew Research found that the vast majority (>90%) of people who voted in 2018 or 2020 voted for the same party in 2022.

The widespread conclusion of political analysts poring over the latest polling seems to be that the 2022 midterms were mostly explained by traditionally-Democratic demographics seeing higher decreases in turnout from 2018 to 2022 than traditionally-Republican demographics did, and that political polarization is so complete that crossover voters have essentially vanished.

We don't really have to guess about the reasons, either, because the government did some polling on that (it's Table 11). We can even compare it against the same data from 2018 (table 10). And with this data side by side, I can do some quick comparisons among Dem-leaning groups:

For the 18-29 age group, the reasons for not voting that increased the most from 2018 to 2022 were "Not Interested", "Forgot to Vote", and "Transportation Problems". The rate of "Did not like candidates or campaign issues" actually decreased from 2018 to 2022 among this group
Among black nonvoters, the biggest increases in non-voting reason were "Forgot to Vote", "Out of Town", "Not Interested", and "Too Busy". While dislike of candidates/issues did increase somewhat among this group, it was a rather small increase compared to those others.
The only groups that saw >1% increases in dislike of candidates/issues from 2018 to 2022 were "age 65+", "didn't graduate high school", "graduated college", "Northeasterner", and "incomes between $75k and $150k". To me, that sounds like conservatives and economically-right moderates - old folks and the uneducated tend to lean Trump, while college-educated Northeasterners making low six figgies brings to mind the urban professional/managerial class that's socially liberal but tends to be economically conservative.
The groups who saw the biggest decreases in dislike of candidates/issues were "Asians", "people in Western states", and "incomes below $75k". Little harder to come to a solid conclusion here (and part of it might just be higher margins of error since the survey had fewer poor and Asian respondents), but it seems clear that the poor weren't super discontent about the issues.

The clear conclusion to draw here is that enthusiasm has somewhat declined from 2018, leading to fewer people making an active effort to fit the election into their lives. And that's not really shocking at all! Midterm turnout among Dem-leaning groups is usually very poor, and 2018 was a historic midterm in many ways, with turnout levels that hadn't been seen in nearly half a century, leading to a massive blue wave. Meanwhile, in 2022, the presidency had changed hands, meaning that not only was Trump not around to motivate people, but the president's party usually loses seats in that president's first midterm under normal conditions. On top of that, the economy was looking pretty bad in 2022, as massive inflation was slamming people by the middle of the year and those skyrocketing prices continued to hammer people through November.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 06:59

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/AlexThomp/status/1680212561554292738

Wellll I would imagine that's it for RFK, that's getting too toxic for any ratfucker left of Nick Fuentes to astroturf

"Accusations of anti-Semitism and racism"

There are some who think that claiming covid was a Jewish/Chinese bioweapon designed to eliminate the white race is anti-Semitic. Others disagree.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1680569234567430145

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Jul 17, 2023

# ? Jul 17, 2023 14:14

Ravenfood: Nov 4, 2011

Shrecknet posted:

how does this happen? I cannot even imagine a guy who voted for Trump and then goes on to ever vote for a democrat. Even if you're a soft supporter/just want tax cuts kinda R (these aren't real anymore anyway), you would just stay home, not pull the lever for the other guy.

A ton of my coworkers initially voted for him because they "just didn't like Hillary" and selectively believed the parts of his poo poo that they liked and thought the lovely parts were just playing to his base. They rapidly expressed regret.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 14:38

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

According to Pew, somewhere between 8% and 12% of voters regularly switch sides in Presidential elections. It's not a huge amount, but it is enough to swing elections.

The most common reason is personal/character issues (i.e. "Person I can have a beer with").

There isn't really one thing you can do to get people to swap, unless you find a way to make yourself far more personally likeable to nearly everyone without alienating anyone.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 15:01

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Interesting story about the changes during the 2008 financial crisis to present and their impact on the U.S. and Europe.

Currently, most European countries are projected to shrink economically over the coming decades - despite seemingly being on a more positive path than the U.S. from 1998 through 2008.

China, India, and the U.S. are now likely to grow even further in the coming decades and the entire Eurozone is projected to become roughly 18% of those three countries.

The U.S. is also projected to become the world's 3rd largest economy (behind China and India) within the next 50 years. Together, these 3 countries are estimated to possess over 75% of the world's GDP at that point.

The biggest surprise to me was:

- In 2008, the entire Eurozone economy was roughly the same size as the U.S. It is currently about half of the U.S. now.

quote:

The eurozone economy grew about 6% over the past 15 years, measured in dollars, compared with 82% for the U.S., according to International Monetary Fund data. That has left the average EU country poorer per head than every U.S. state except Idaho and Mississippi.

I did not realize the difference was that stark.

One "good" thing for Europe is that they are partially compensating this with less work time overall because they are unable to negotiate for significantly higher wages. But, that puts significant economic stress on people when their income drops by 20% and they can't raise it without getting a second job.

It's a long article, but really detailed and interesting.

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1680906475487592448

quote:

Europeans are facing a new economic reality, one they haven�t experienced in decades. They are becoming poorer.

Life on a continent long envied by outsiders for its art de vivre is rapidly losing its shine as Europeans see their purchasing power melt away.

The French are eating less foie gras and drinking less red wine. Spaniards are stinting on olive oil. Finns are being urged to use saunas on windy days when energy is less expensive. Across Germany, meat and milk consumption has fallen to the lowest level in three decades and the once-booming market for organic food has tanked. Italy�s economic development minister, Adolfo Urso, convened a crisis meeting in May over prices for pasta, the country�s favorite staple, after they jumped by more than double the national inflation rate.

With consumption spending in free fall, Europe tipped into recession at the start of the year, reinforcing a sense of relative economic, political and military decline that kicked in at the start of the century.

Europe�s current predicament has been long in the making. An aging population with a preference for free time and job security over earnings ushered in years of lackluster economic and productivity growth. Then came the one-two punch of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia�s protracted war in Ukraine. By upending global supply chains and sending the prices of energy and food rocketing, the crises aggravated ailments that had been festering for decades.

Governments� responses only compounded the problem. To preserve jobs, they steered their subsidies primarily to employers, leaving consumers without a cash cushion when the price shock came. Americans, by contrast, benefited from inexpensive energy and government aid directed primarily at citizens to keep them spending.

In the past, the continent�s formidable export industry might have come to the rescue. But a sluggish recovery in China, a critical market for Europe, is undermining that growth pillar. High energy costs and rampant inflation at a level not seen since the 1970s are dulling manufacturers� price advantage in international markets and smashing the continent�s once-harmonious labor relations. As global trade cools, Europe�s heavy reliance on exports�which account for about 50% of eurozone GDP versus 10% for the U.S.�is becoming a weakness.

Private consumption has declined by about 1% in the 20-nation eurozone since the end of 2019 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a Paris-based club of mainly wealthy countries. In the U.S., where households enjoy a strong labor market and rising incomes, it has increased by nearly 9%. The European Union now accounts for about 18% of all global consumption spending, compared with 28% for America. Fifteen years ago, the EU and the U.S. each represented about a quarter of that total.

Adjusted for inflation and purchasing power, wages have declined by about 3% since 2019 in Germany, by 3.5% in Italy and Spain and by 6% in Greece. Real wages in the U.S. have increased by about 6% over the same period, according to OECD data.

The pain reaches far into the middle classes. In Brussels, one of Europe�s richest cities, teachers and nurses stood in line on a recent evening to collect half-price groceries from the back of a truck. The vendor, Happy Hours Market, collects food close to its expiration date from supermarkets and advertises it through an app. Customers can order in the early afternoon and collect their cut-price groceries in the evening.

�Some customers tell me, because of you I can eat meat two or three times per week,� said Pierre van Hede, who was handing out crates of groceries.
Karim Bouazza, a 33-year-old nurse who was stocking up on half-price meat and fish for his wife and two children, complained that inflation means �you almost need to work a second job to pay for everything.�

Similar services have sprung up across the region, marketing themselves as a way to reduce food waste as well as save money. TooGoodToGo, a company founded in Denmark in 2015 that sells leftover food from retailers and restaurants, has 76 million registered users across Europe, roughly three times the number at the end of 2020. In Germany, Sirplus, a startup created in 2017, offers �rescued� food, including products past their sell-by date, on its online store. So does Motatos, created in Sweden in 2014 and now present in Finland, Germany, Denmark and the U.K.

Spending on high-end groceries has collapsed. Germans consumed 52 kilograms of meat per person in 2022, about 8% less than the previous year and the lowest level since calculations began in 1989. While some of that reflects societal concerns about healthy eating and animal welfare, experts say the trend has been accelerated by meat prices which increased by up to 30% in recent months. Germans are also swapping meats such as beef and veal for less-expensive ones such as poultry, according to the Federal Information Center for Agriculture.

Thomas Wolff, an organic-food supplier near Frankfurt, said his sales fell by up to 30% last year as inflation surged. Wolff said he had hired 33 people earlier in the pandemic to handle strong demand for pricey ecological foodstuffs, but he has since let them all go.

Ronja Ebeling, a 26-year-old consultant and author based in Hamburg, said she saves about one-quarter of her income, partly because she worries about having enough money for retirement. She spends little on clothes or makeup and shares a car with her partner�s father.

Weak spending and poor demographic prospects are making Europe less attractive for businesses ranging from consumer-goods giant Procter & Gamble to luxury empire LVMH, which are making an ever-larger share of their sales in North America.

�The U.S. consumer is more resilient than in Europe,� Unilever�s chief financial officer, Graeme Pitkethly, said in April.

The eurozone economy grew about 6% over the past 15 years, measured in dollars, compared with 82% for the U.S., according to International Monetary Fund data. That has left the average EU country poorer per head than every U.S. state except Idaho and Mississippi, according to a report this month by the European Centre for International Political Economy, a Brussels-based independent think tank. If the current trend continues, by 2035 the gap between economic output per capita in the U.S. and EU will be as large as that between Japan and Ecuador today, the report said.

On the Mediterranean island of Mallorca, businesses are lobbying for more flights to the U.S. to increase the number of free-spending American tourists, said Maria Frontera, president of the Mallorca Chamber of Commerce�s tourism commission. Americans spend about �260 ($292) per day on average on hotels compared with less than �180 ($202) for Europeans.

�This year we have seen a big change in the behavior of Europeans because of the economic situation we are dealing with,� said Frontera, who recently traveled to Miami to learn how to better cater to American customers.

Weak growth and rising interest rates are straining Europe�s generous welfare states, which provide popular healthcare services and pensions. European governments find the old recipes for fixing the problem are either becoming unaffordable or have stopped working. Three-quarters of a trillion euros in subsidies, tax breaks and other forms of relief have gone to consumers and businesses to offset higher energy costs�something economists say is now itself fueling inflation, defeating the subsidies� purpose.

Public-spending cuts after the global financial crisis starved Europe�s state-funded healthcare systems, especially the U.K.�s National Health Service.

Vivek Trivedi, a 31-year-old anesthesiologist living in Manchester, England, earns about �51,000 ($67,000) per year for a 48-hour workweek. Inflation, which has been about 10% or higher in the U.K. for nearly a year, is devouring his monthly budget, he says. Trivedi said he shops for groceries in discount retailers and spends less on meals out. Some colleagues turned off their heating entirely over recent months, worried they wouldn�t be able to afford sharply higher costs, he said.

Noa Cohen, a 28-year old public-affairs specialist in London, says she could quadruple her salary in the same job by leveraging her U.S. passport to move across the Atlantic. Cohen recently got a 10% pay raise after switching jobs, but the increase was completely swallowed by inflation. She says friends are freezing their eggs because they can�t afford children anytime soon, in the hope that they have enough money in future.

�It feels like a perma-freeze in living standards,� she said.

Huw Pill, the Bank of England�s chief economist, warned U.K. citizens in April that they need to accept that they are poorer and stop pushing for higher wages. �Yes, we�re all worse off,� he said, saying that seeking to offset rising prices with higher wages would only fuel more inflation.

With European governments needing to increase defense spending and given rising borrowing costs, economists expect taxes to increase, adding pressure on consumers. Taxes in Europe are already high relative to those in other wealthy countries, equivalent to around 40-45% of GDP compared with 27% in the U.S. American workers take home almost three-quarters of their paychecks, including income taxes and Social Security taxes, while French and German workers keep just half.

The pauperization of Europe has bolstered the ranks of labor unions, which are picking up tens of thousands of members across the continent, reversing a decades-long decline.

Higher unionization may not translate into fuller pockets for members. That�s because many are pushing workers� preference for more free time over higher pay, even in a world of spiraling skills shortages.

IG Metall, Germany�s biggest trade union, is calling for a four-day work week at current salary levels rather than a pay raise for the country�s metalworkers ahead of collective bargaining negotiations this November. Officials say the shorter week would improve workers� health and quality of life while at the same time making the industry more attractive to younger workers.

Almost half of employees in Germany�s health industry choose to work around 30 hours per week rather than full time, reflecting tough working conditions, said Frank Werneke, chairman of the country�s United Services Trade Union, which has added about 110,000 new members in recent months, the biggest increase in 22 years.

Kristian Kallio, a games developer in northern Finland, recently decided to reduce his working week by one-fifth to 30 hours in exchange for a 10% pay cut. He now makes about �2,500 per month. �Who wouldn�t want to work shorter hours?� Kallio said. About one-third of his colleagues took the same deal, although leaders work full-time, said Kallio�s boss, Jaakko Kylm�oja.

Kallio now works from 10 a.m. to 4.30 p.m. He uses his extra free time for hobbies, to make good food and take long bike rides. �I don�t see a reality where I would go back to normal working hours,� he said.

Igor Chaykovskiy, a 34-year-old IT worker in Paris, joined a trade union earlier this year to press for better pay and conditions. He recently received a 3.5% pay increase, about half the level of inflation. He thinks the union will give workers greater leverage to press managers. Still, it isn�t just about pay. �Maybe they say you don�t have an increase in salary, you have free sports lessons or music lessons,� he said.

At the Stellantis auto factory in Melfi, southern Italy, employees have worked shorter hours for years recently due to the difficulty of procuring raw materials and high energy costs, said Marco Lomio, a trade unionist with the Italian Union of Metalworkers. Hours worked have recently been reduced by around 30% and wages decreased proportionally.

�Between high inflation and rising energy costs for workers,� said Lomio, �it is difficult to bear all family expenses.�

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Jul 17, 2023

# ? Jul 17, 2023 15:34

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

"Accusations of anti-Semitism and racism"

There are some who think that claiming was a Jewish/Chinese bioweapon designed to eliminate the white race is anti-Semitic. Others disagree.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1680569234567430145

Also apparently considering Ashkenazi Jews non-white is something that should be bothsided by "respectable" publication.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 15:50

Nosre: Apr 16, 2002

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Interesting story about the changes during the 2008 financial crisis to present and their impact on the U.S. and Europe.

Currently, most European countries are projected to shrink economically over the coming decades - despite seemingly being on a more positive path than the U.S. from 1998 through 2008.

China, India, and the U.S. are now likely to grow even further in the coming decades and the entire Eurozone is projected to become roughly 18% of those three countries.

The U.S. is also projected to become the world's 3rd largest economy (behind China and India) within the next 50 years. Together, these 3 countries are estimated to possess over 75% of the world's GDP at that point.

The biggest surprise to me was:

- In 2008, the entire Eurozone economy was roughly the same size as the U.S. It is currently about half of the U.S. now.

I did not realize the difference was that stark.

One "good" thing for Europe is that they are partially compensating this with less work time overall because they are unable to negotiate for significantly higher wages. But, that puts significant economic stress on people when their income drops by 20% and they can't raise it without getting a second job.

It's a long article, but really detailed and interesting.

As an American living in Belgium I was surprised about a lot of that too. The grocery store back home in rural New England sure seems like it's been getting worse faster than here, and places like reddit are filled with Americans complaining about how bad it is. But obviously that's a particular bubble.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 16:40

Mustang: Jun 18, 2006; “We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

I went to Berlin last summer with my grad school program and was surprised how comparatively cheap things were. Most things seemed to be nearly 50% cheaper than they would have cost us in Seattle.

Some of the companies that we met with while we were there invited us to send them our resumes, but they also were only offering to pay at most half of what we could make in Seattle.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 16:54

Civilized Fishbot: Apr 3, 2011

OddObserver posted:

Also apparently considering Ashkenazi Jews non-white is something that should be bothsided by "respectable" publication.

"Bothsiding" is when there's an objective truth to a question, but a journalist declines to report that objective truth, just the back-and-forth debate over the question. But there is no objective truth to "are Ashkenazi Jews White" because race isn't an objective reality, just a bullshit ideology.

The reporting here looks pretty solid to me - it describes the historical stakes to the racial ideology:

quote:

The idea that Ashkenazi Jews are somehow separate from Caucasians has fueled deadly bigotry for centuries...

and then dispatches the ideology as bullshit:

quote:

�Jewish or Chinese protease consensus sequences are not a thing in biochemistry, but they are in racism and antisemitism,� said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan.

To say "and as a matter of fact Ashkenazi Jews are actually White/not White" would be misleading because there's no racial reality except what people are trained to perceive and believe.

What would you have liked them to add/remove from the article?

Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Jul 17, 2023

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:04

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

That US vs EU comparison mostly seems like documentation of America's continuing insane lust for more consumption at all costs

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:15

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

Also possibly that the EU just still has some remaining middle class to squeeze.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:19

Keyser_Soze: May 5, 2009; Pillbug

Mizaq posted:

I know 1st and 2nd generation immigrants that regularly crossed the Mexican border for work because they still lived in Tijuana who voted for Trump the first time but not the second. Guess they got tired of the border getting worse instead of better? Never did figure out why they voted for him in the first place beyond their FYGM mentality. Something about illegal immigrants not deserving because they essentially cut in line.

1. Religion
2. they don't particularly care for the Central/South Americans
3. and yep, a modicum of "FYGM"

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:24

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Also possibly that the EU just still has some remaining middle class to squeeze.

It's the opposite according to the article. In 2008, the Eurozone and U.S. were almost exactly tied for GDP. The U.S. had a small lead in discretionary consumption spending and median income. Now, the Eurozone is half the GDP of the U.S. and discretionary consumption spending and median income have fallen fairly significantly.

It has ramped up in the short-term as well. From 2019 to 2023, the difference in wages between the median Eurozoner and median American has diverged by 9.5%.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:27

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Also possibly that the EU just still has some remaining middle class to squeeze.

That too.

EU citizens are most definitely being pushed into more modest lives, it kinda sucks in some ways but thats kinda the direction everything's going in so maybe we'll have a smoother transition into a post-lapsarian lifestyle. Middle-,class America OTOH is going to have a full epistemic break when their treats are taken away

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:28

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

The EU did very little in terms of additional assistance to people during the early pandemic. Whereas the US expanded programs like the child tax credit and also gave people stimulus funds.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:28

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

FlamingLiberal posted:

The EU did very little in terms of additional assistance to people during the early pandemic. Whereas the US expanded programs like the child tax credit and also gave people stimulus funds.

EU states generally have much more robust social welfare systems in general, so the baseline was way different.

Nevertheless, my country gave everyone furloughed for COVID top-up payments for like 18 months (I don't remember the specifics because I was always WFH)

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:33

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

FlamingLiberal posted:

The EU did very little in terms of additional assistance to people during the early pandemic. Whereas the US expanded programs like the child tax credit and also gave people stimulus funds.

That is part of the explanation for why the gap rose so much faster during the pandemic, but the trend started in 2008.

The article says:

quote:

Then came the one-two punch of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia�s protracted war in Ukraine. By upending global supply chains and sending the prices of energy and food rocketing, the crises aggravated ailments that had been festering for decades.

Governments� responses only compounded the problem. To preserve jobs, they steered their subsidies primarily to employers, leaving consumers without a cash cushion when the price shock came. Americans, by contrast, benefited from inexpensive energy and government aid directed primarily at citizens to keep them spending.

According to the article, the primary reasons are:

- 50% of the EU economy is export based. That is currently being killed by China's sluggish growth, the U.S. sourcing locally, and the strength of the Euro making prices less attractive in areas with cheaper currencies.

- Public spending for welfare programs has fallen dramatically. Historically, the low wages in the E.U. compared to the U.S. were supplemented through government transfers, but that amount has been shrinking.

quote:

Weak growth and rising interest rates are straining Europe�s generous welfare states, which provide popular healthcare services and pensions. European governments find the old recipes for fixing the problem are either becoming unaffordable or have stopped working. Three-quarters of a trillion euros in subsidies, tax breaks and other forms of relief have gone to consumers and businesses to offset higher energy costs�something economists say is now itself fueling inflation, defeating the subsidies� purpose.

Public-spending cuts after the global financial crisis starved Europe�s state-funded healthcare systems, especially the U.K.�s National Health Service.

- Inflation still hitting the E.U. twice as hard as the U.S. and low wages falling even lower.

quote:

Adjusted for inflation and purchasing power, wages have declined by about 3% since 2019 in Germany, by 3.5% in Italy and Spain and by 6% in Greece. Real wages in the U.S. have increased by about 6% over the same period, according to OECD data.

quote:

The pain reaches far into the middle classes. In Brussels, one of Europe�s richest cities, teachers and nurses stood in line on a recent evening to collect half-price groceries from the back of a truck. The vendor, Happy Hours Market, collects food close to its expiration date from supermarkets and advertises it through an app. Customers can order in the early afternoon and collect their cut-price groceries in the evening.

�Some customers tell me, because of you I can eat meat two or three times per week,� said Pierre van Hede, who was handing out crates of groceries.
Karim Bouazza, a 33-year-old nurse who was stocking up on half-price meat and fish for his wife and two children, complained that inflation means �you almost need to work a second job to pay for everything.�

Similar services have sprung up across the region, marketing themselves as a way to reduce food waste as well as save money. TooGoodToGo, a company founded in Denmark in 2015 that sells leftover food from retailers and restaurants, has 76 million registered users across Europe, roughly three times the number at the end of 2020.

quote:

Noa Cohen, a 28-year old public-affairs specialist in London, says she could quadruple her salary in the same job by leveraging her U.S. passport to move across the Atlantic. Cohen recently got a 10% pay raise after switching jobs, but the increase was completely swallowed by inflation. She says friends are freezing their eggs because they can�t afford children anytime soon, in the hope that they have enough money in future.

�It feels like a perma-freeze in living standards,� she said.

- Taxes are already high in Europe and that makes it harder to raise them even further (and also dilutes the impact of wage gains for individuals because larger percentages of those gains are going to taxes).

quote:

With European governments needing to increase defense spending and given rising borrowing costs, economists expect taxes to increase, adding pressure on consumers. Taxes in Europe are already high relative to those in other wealthy countries, equivalent to around 40-45% of GDP compared with 27% in the U.S. American workers take home almost three-quarters of their paychecks, including income taxes and Social Security taxes, while French and German workers keep just half.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:36

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

IIRC the EU also struggled to do stimulus post 2008 recession. Not to say that we here in the US did it well, which we didn't, but we have a more diverse economy.

I also wonder what role immigration has in terms of the US being more stable than the EU nations.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:42

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

FlamingLiberal posted:

IIRC the EU also struggled to do stimulus post 2008 recession. Not to say that we here in the US did it well, which we didn't, but we have a more diverse economy.

I also wonder what role immigration has in terms of the US being more stable than the EU nations.

Didn't EU opt for austerity cuts in 2008?

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:53

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Mooseontheloose posted:

Didn't EU opt for austerity cuts in 2008?

In was 2010. And it was less "opted" for them and more "Germany requiring them for Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Italy because they were threatening to stop bailing them out and made it a mandatory condition of the last bailout."

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:56

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Mooseontheloose posted:

Didn't EU opt for austerity cuts in 2008?

https://hbr.org/2018/09/what-has-the-eurozone-learned-from-the-financial-crisis

I think this summary is fairly accurate. The US and EU Central Bank decisions were pretty similar, with the EU interest rates taking a bit longer to go down to US levels. EU interest rates ended up going negative from 2014-2022/

Spain, Greece and Portugal all implemented austerity measures between 2010-2014 and I think most people agree that those policies hampered recovery.

https://hbr.org/2018/09/what-has-the-eurozone-learned-from-the-financial-crisis

# ? Jul 17, 2023 17:58

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

In was 2010. And it was less "opted" for them and more "Germany requiring them for Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Italy because they were threatening to stop bailing them out and made it a mandatory condition of the last bailout."

Ireland too (PIIGS) . IMF basically had us over a barrel. But we recovered better than the others for various reasons

# ? Jul 17, 2023 18:02

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

I meant to post this here

No Labels is putting balloons in the air to see if Joe Manchin is viable as a 3rd Party candidate and in no way is the commentary paid for on CNN. To be fair this is labelled as "analysis" but reads as a No Labels press release.

First the headline...

Manchin�s New Hampshire trip will leave Democrats shivering

quote:

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will be back driving Democrats to distraction Monday by appearing in New Hampshire with a group whose exploration of a third-party presidential ticket is stoking fears they could hand the White House to Donald Trump.

The moderate Democratic senator will take part in a town hall hosted by the group No Labels to help launch a new �common sense� platform on immigration, health care, gun control, the economy and other issues that it believes are being ignored by what it views as two ideological and increasingly extreme main parties.

Manchin � who�s facing reelection to the Senate next year but has not yet said whether he�ll run � will be in his familiar political sweet spot, staking out ground to the right of his party and attracting a political spotlight he uses to maximize his influence. Last year, for instance, Manchin�s initial refusal to back a massive climate, tax and social safety net planned forced President Joe Biden to scale back and renegotiate a huge piece of his domestic agenda.

The West Virginia Democrat�s model has served him well with repeated statewide wins in one of the most conservative pro-Trump states in the nation. But he has Democrats doubly nervous � about how any presidential bid could roil Biden�s reelection and how a decision not to seek reelection himself would hand Republicans a Senate seat in 2024.

Joe Manchin says New Hampshire trip not about running as a third-party candidate -- but does not rule it out
Manchin told CNN�s Manu Raju last week that his appearance in the Granite State has nothing to do with any third-party presidential run but is merely about advancing a �dialogue for common sense.� But the senator � who has built a power base by keeping people guessing � added, �I�ve never ruled out anything or ruled in anything,� and he dodged a question about whether an independent ticket could hurt Biden in November 2024.

No Labels says it is considering a third-party unity ticket with one Republican and one Democrat in November 2024 and will make a final decision next year based on whether its �insurance plan� has a viable chance of victory.

For now, Manchin�s noncommittal answers are worrying some of his Democratic colleagues. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, who represents a swing state Biden won by a sliver of just over 10,000 votes in 2020, said on CNN�s �State of the Union� on Sunday that he has raised the issue of potential third-party candidacies with Manchin.

�I don�t think No Labels is a political party,� Kelly said. �I mean, this is a few individuals putting dark money behind an organization. And that�s not what our democracy should be about. It should not be about a few rich people,� Kelly said. �I�m obviously concerned about what�s going on here in Arizona and across the country.�

CNN has reached out to No Labels, a registered non-profit that does not disclose its donors. The group has blasted previous efforts to dispute its right to participate in the political process as undemocratic.

Dissatisfaction with current candidates fuels third-party speculation
Democrats are also concerned about a planned third-party run by former Harvard professor and public intellectual Cornel West, who supported independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders during his 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential campaigns. Even if West were to take just a few thousand votes from Biden � for instance, in the key swing state of Georgia � he could still compromise the president�s hopes of victory.

But West, who is running for the Green Party�s nomination, told CNN�s Kaitlan Collins on Thursday that it was �simply not true� that he could tip the election to Trump, should the ex-president become the GOP nominee. And he accused Democrats of failing to speak up for poor and working people and warned Biden was �leading us toward a Third World War,� in an apparent reference to US support for Ukraine�s attempt to repel Russia�s invasion.

US President Joe Biden speaks during the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) Capital Dinner in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, June 14, 2023. The US Secretary of State will travel to Beijing later this week, becoming the most-senior US official to visit the country in five years as the US looks to ease tensions that have provoked fears of open conflict between the world's two biggest economies. Photographer: Bonnie Cash/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Why Biden worries about a third-party rival in 2024
Doubts about the current 80-year-old president are also fodder for Robert Kennedy Jr.�s bid for the Democratic nomination. He has a history of repeating unfounded conspiracy theories about child vaccines or that man-made chemicals could be making children gay or transgender. Kennedy this weekend became embroiled in new controversy after falsely stating that �Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese� people are �most immune� to Covid-19.

Growing speculation about a potential third-party challenge in 2024 � despite the futile history of most previous such efforts � is being fueled by public dissatisfaction with the options. Polls show that both Biden and Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, are unpopular. In fact, a rematch between the two is the one race many voters don�t want to see. Anger at the political establishments in both parties � a defining factor of the politics of the first 20 years of the 21st century � is one reason why some political experts believe that there may be substantial running room for a third-party ticket this cycle, even if the obstacles for success are immense.

The fresh intrigue over the 2024 election also comes as the pace of the campaign heats up. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has failed to meet expectations so far as the main GOP challenger to Trump, polling in second in most national polls but still well behind the former president. DeSantis is showing the classic signs of a pivot. His campaign has shed staffers (a spokesman told CNN the number was fewer than 10), and he�s venturing out of his safe zone of only engaging conservative media. On Tuesday, he will join CNN�s Jake Tapper for an exclusive interview after a campaign event in South Carolina.

But Trump is upping his efforts to knock his former protege out of the race, even as he deals with the overhang of two criminal indictments. The ex-president claimed on Saturday he was �totally dominating� DeSantis in Florida polls and it was time for his rival to �get home.� Trump�s fundraising lead is cementing his front-runner status following new campaign finance data. An impressive $72 million haul by Biden and the Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, is not yet assuaging all of the Democratic concerns about the president�s reelection prospects.

Why No Labels believes a third-party candidate is viable
No Labels is laying out its platform in a new �Common Sense� booklet that Manchin and Utah�s former Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman will promote in a town hall at Saint Anselm College in Manchester. The platform contains multiple ideas splitting the difference between the Democratic and Republican position on key issues with bipartisan stances anchored to the political center ground.

On immigration, for instance, the group calls for tighter border controls, a reform of asylum procedures and a path to citizenship for Dreamers, or undocumented migrants brought to the United States as children. On guns, the group wants to uphold the right to bear arms but calls for dangerous weapons to be kept out of the hands of �dangerous people,� including with universal background checks and by closing loopholes that make it easier to buy weapons at gun shows. No Labels also wants better community policing and crackdowns on crime.

Given the gridlock, anger and dysfunction in Washington, it�s hard to argue that the current political system is working. But many of these solutions are familiar, having been tried by presidents in either party or groups of cross-party senators. Their failure to make it into law both encapsulates the rationale behind a third-party bid to smash Washington�s political deadlock, but also explains the institutional and political barriers to an independent president ever being elected or effective.

�We think there is an opening today, and if it looks like this a year from now, there could be an opening,� said Ryan Clancy, the chief strategist for No Labels, in an interview with CNN�s Michael Smerconish in May. �To nominate a ticket, we�ve got to clear two pretty high bars, which is the major party nominees need to continue to be really unpopular, but a unity ticket needs to have an outright path to victory.�

No Labels says it would draw supporters equally from Republicans and Democrats and argues that previous third-party candidacies � for instance, by Green Party nominee Jill Stein, consumer advocate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson � were unsuccessful because voters didn�t believe they could win. (Some Democrats accused Nader in 2000 and Stein in 2016 of siphoning away votes from Democratic nominees Al Gore and Hillary Clinton and opening the way for the GOP to claim the White House).

Democrats fear No Labels could hurt Biden the most
The center-left think tank Third Way is warning that a No Labels candidate could be especially dangerous for Biden in the key states that will decide the election. It is highlighting research showing that in 2020, Biden won six of seven states where the margin of victory was three points or less. It argues, therefore, that 79 electoral votes are potentially at risk for Biden from the involvement of a third-party challenger.

Such a challenger would also need to win states where Biden won big, and at least some conservative bastions. And given that Trump�s deeply loyal voters are unlikely to desert him, a third-party candidate seems more likely to pull from the same pool of anti-Trump Republicans and moderate and independent voters Biden is targeting with a campaign rooted in his warnings against the threat to democracy from Trump�s �Make America Great Again� populism.

An analysis by CNN�s Harry Enten shows that voters who don�t have a favorable view of either Biden or Trump are more likely to side with the current president in the end. In an average of the past three Quinnipiac University polls, Biden leads Trump by 7 points among those who don�t have a favorable view of either man. A third name on the ballot could complicate this equation.

There is also the question of whether No Labels � with its condemnation of �two major political parties dominated by angry and extremist voices driven by ideology and identity politics� � is drawing a false equivalency between Republicans and Democrats. Trump, for example, sought to overturn a democratic election in 2020 to stay in power, while Biden has enacted rare bipartisan legislation including over gun safety and infrastructure.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is hoping to thwart Trump�s bid for a third consecutive GOP nomination, warned Sunday that a third-party candidacy could play directly into the former president�s hands. �There are only two people who will get elected president of the United States in November of �24 � the Republican nominee for president and the Democratic nominee for president,� Christie said on ABC News� �This Week.�

�They think they know who they (are) going to hurt. They want to hurt Donald Trump if he�s the nominee. But. � you never quite know who you�re going to hurt in that process.�

I think part of this is CNN trying to drum up SOME sort of interest because they think Joe Biden is cruising to a 2nd term and need a way to drum up a horse race. But let's take that more conspiratorial point aside.

No Labels is making the same mistake every Unity Ticket/People Hate the Two Parties people make. They believe their perception of the parties it how the public views the parties and that simply isn't true. It's "both sides are the same" but in terms of extremism. And that simply isn't true and as always a true third party candidate would be some sort of social safety net but for white people.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 18:07

Kith: Sep 17, 2009; You never learn anything
by doing it right.

Nobody normal gives a poo poo about Joe Manchin unless they're one of his constituents. If he goes Third Party, his performance will be on par with Ron DeSantis.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 18:23

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Mooseontheloose posted:

I meant to post this here

No Labels is putting balloons in the air to see if Joe Manchin is viable as a 3rd Party candidate and in no way is the commentary paid for on CNN. To be fair this is labelled as "analysis" but reads as a No Labels press release.

First the headline...

Manchin�s New Hampshire trip will leave Democrats shivering

I think part of this is CNN trying to drum up SOME sort of interest because they think Joe Biden is cruising to a 2nd term and need a way to drum up a horse race. But let's take that more conspiratorial point aside.

No Labels is making the same mistake every Unity Ticket/People Hate the Two Parties people make. They believe their perception of the parties it how the public views the parties and that simply isn't true. It's "both sides are the same" but in terms of extremism. And that simply isn't true and as always a true third party candidate would be some sort of social safety net but for white people.

The Dems are just currently circulating talking points about the "dangers" of voting non-Biden right now; see this piece, too. If you click on the CNN writer's name you can see he's not in the habit of writing press releases for No Labels, and it makes sense that Dems would fear No Labels more than the Greens because they're ideologically much closer to the former than the latter.

I doubt anyone at the DNC is "shivering"--that's typical of horserace hyperbole--but with fairly recent polls saying that 70 percent of Dems would rather not see Biden run for reelection (as well as 60 percent of GOP voters saying the same about Trump) the Dems are wisely amping up the "a vote for no-Joe is a vote for Trump" megaphone.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 18:24

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Willa Rogers posted:

The Dems are just currently circulating talking points about the "dangers" of voting non-Biden right now; see this piece, too. If you click on the CNN writer's name you can see he's not in the habit of writing press releases for No Labels, and it makes sense that Dems would fear No Labels more than the Greens because they're ideologically much closer to the former than the latter.

I doubt anyone at the DNC is "shivering"--that's typical of horserace hyperbole--but with fairly recent polls saying that 70 percent of Dems would rather not see Biden run for reelection (as well as 60 percent of GOP voters saying the same about Trump) the Dems are wisely amping up the "a vote for no-Joe is a vote for Trump" megaphone.

The "shouldn't run for President/re-election" numbers are always very high. See: Trump having 60% of Republicans say "would rather someone else" run despite having 80+% approval among Republicans. The ethereal idea of "someone better" is always more popular than the real results. It's the same reason why "Generic Republican" or "Generic Democrat" polls 5-10% higher than every single actual candidate.

Obama also had 55% say "shouldn't run for re-election" in 2012.

There is also the infamous example of Reagan who had 60% say he shouldn't run for re-election and only 20% thought the economy would improve in 1982.

I doubt anyone is reacting because of those polls and it is the same stuff we see every year since the 1980's where Republicans tell people not to vote for the Libertarians/Reform party and Dems say not to vote for Greens in close races.

It's the generic fear of spoilers in close races and not that anybody really especially cares about Joe Manchin or Cornell West in particular.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 18:35

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

�Six in ten Americans� is quite different from �seven in ten Democrats.�

Do you have any apples to apples comparisons?

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:04

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021

What a great idea, call yourself No Labels because "vote-scalping centrist ninny third way dumbshits" is a label

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:07

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

I like that there are people on both sides of the aisle who don't like identifying with either party, but any time someone calls themselves "no label" or "they don't like anybody" you can safely assume they are still walking into the booth and pulling the R lever anyway. It's impossible for conservatives to get away from the hard R.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:15

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

Someone needs to explain to me why No Labels doesn't just support Trump if they are so concerned about a second Biden term

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:16

yronic heroism: Oct 31, 2008

FlamingLiberal posted:

Someone needs to explain to me why No Labels doesn't just support Trump if they are so concerned about a second Biden term

Because �both sides bad�

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:21

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

FlamingLiberal posted:

Someone needs to explain to me why No Labels doesn't just support Trump if they are so concerned about a second Biden term

They say that the current Republican party and Democratic party are both too extreme and most Americans want a moderate candidate, but feel boxed in by the first past the post system meaning they are wasting their vote.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:23

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

According to Pew, somewhere between 8% and 12% of voters regularly switch sides in Presidential elections. It's not a huge amount, but it is enough to swing elections.

The most common reason is personal/character issues (i.e. "Person I can have a beer with").

There isn't really one thing you can do to get people to swap, unless you find a way to make yourself far more personally likeable to nearly everyone without alienating anyone.

In a 2 party system where the vote differential is often less than five percent this is actually huge in terms of effect on outcome.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:25

yronic heroism: Oct 31, 2008

Zwabu posted:

In a 2 party system where the vote differential is often less than five percent this is actually huge in terms of effect on outcome.

There�s also probably a small but influential contingent of voters who will consistently vote for the incumbent and �not switch horses� (unless they perceive things are going too wrong, as in �76, �92, and to some extent 2020) but also want to switch after two terms of the incumbent (unless the challenger is made to look unacceptable, as in �88).

I see this as almost a tidal force that can�t really be changed, you just try to find other voters.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Jul 17, 2023

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:38

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

FlamingLiberal posted:

Someone needs to explain to me why No Labels doesn't just support Trump if they are so concerned about a second Biden term

they don't like the overt racism of Trump but Joe Biden might raise taxes, it's a real conundrum for them.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:39

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Zwabu posted:

In a 2 party system where the vote differential is often less than five percent this is actually huge in terms of effect on outcome.

Yes, but:

1) That group also tends to split somewhat closely with the national vote. So, you have an even small segment of 3-5% of people who are truly random/frequently switching votes.

2) Vote switchers are much more likely to not vote. They might drop out for 4 year and then come back. So, it isn't 100% the same group of people every time.

That makes it much harder to actually predict/analyze that small group.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:42

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

Mooseontheloose posted:

they don't like the overt racism of Trump but Joe Biden might raise taxes, it's a real conundrum for them.

There are other Republicans they can support if they want that (ie. Chris Christie)

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:42

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# ? May 24, 2024 02:14

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

Mooseontheloose posted:

I meant to post this here

No Labels is putting balloons in the air to see if Joe Manchin is viable as a 3rd Party candidate and in no way is the commentary paid for on CNN. To be fair this is labelled as "analysis" but reads as a No Labels press release.

First the headline...

Manchin�s New Hampshire trip will leave Democrats shivering

I think part of this is CNN trying to drum up SOME sort of interest because they think Joe Biden is cruising to a 2nd term and need a way to drum up a horse race. But let's take that more conspiratorial point aside.

No Labels is making the same mistake every Unity Ticket/People Hate the Two Parties people make. They believe their perception of the parties it how the public views the parties and that simply isn't true. It's "both sides are the same" but in terms of extremism. And that simply isn't true and as always a true third party candidate would be some sort of social safety net but for white people.

No Labels isn't making that mistake because they think that's what people want, they're making that mistake because that's what they want. It and its leadership have heavy ties to self-proclaimed "moderate" politicians, a mixture of less-Trumpy Republicans who'd rather see him gone and right-wing 90s Dems who think the Democratic Party has moved too far left. The founder and leader, Nancy Jacobson, has spent pretty much her entire career involved with organizations and candidates that sought to drag the Dems right. She helped launch Third Way, she was national finance chair for the Democratic Leadership Council, and she worked for conservative Democrat Evan Bayh, at least until 2008 when she quit all those roles in order to join the Hillary '08 campaign as a senior advisor alongside her husband Mark Penn.

The spirit of it really comes through in their policy proposals too - their social policies are all "let's find an answer-in-the-middle compromise between the two extremes" nonsense, but their economic policies are the pure right-wing "cut corporate taxes, get rid of job-killing regulations, restore fossil fuel subsidies, and create tax credits to incentivize corporate investment in poor communities" schtick we've gotten so used to from the self-proclaimed centrists.

FlamingLiberal posted:

Someone needs to explain to me why No Labels doesn't just support Trump if they are so concerned about a second Biden term

They don't like the Trump movement's focus on social issues, basically. They want to go back to the 90s orthodoxy of focusing entirely on deregulation and deficit reduction, while quietly sidelining social issues with halfassed compromises to shut up the interest groups who care about those issues.

There's also a measure of corruption and self-enrichment to it, too. For example, No Labels exclusively uses HarrisX as their polling firm...and HarrisX is owned by Mike Penn, who (as noted earlier) happens to be the husband of No Labels' president and CEO. Incidentally, No Labels commissions quite a few polls for an organization that doesn't really have any candidates running. A coincidence, I'm sure.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 19:52

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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