USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

«‹›797 »

Dpulex: Feb 26, 2013

People are too fat for civil war II

# ? Jul 17, 2023 20:07

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 19:55

Kaiju Cage Match: Nov 5, 2012

This "No Labels" organization sounds like a bunch of squares with no political convictions.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 20:10

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Kaiju Cage Match posted:

This "No Labels" organization sounds like a bunch of squares with no political convictions.

They do have convictions. They are just mostly unpopular ones. They represent that 10-15% of the population that actually does have "socially liberal and economically conservative" beliefs. They just have much more money and free time to promote themselves and it is in their interest to claim that there is secretly a ton of people who support their idea who just never vote because [reason]. To be fair, the second part is true of any political group.

It's just a really hard sell for those policies when 85-90% of the population doesn't have that exact combination of beliefs and you live in a democracy with a first past the post system. That's why their PR stuff is always focused on nebulously positive things like "independent thinking" and "stopping political BS to just get stuff done."

# ? Jul 17, 2023 20:13

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Another entry into the story of Florida's fall from grace: CNBC's annual study of "Best States to live and work" ranks it the 10th worst state to live in America.

From the 90's up through early 2000's, it was consistently rated in the top 10 best states to live in the same study.

Texas was actually rated the worst state to live in this year, but the study notes that Texas is a great place to live for about 20% of the population. The experience for the other 80% is what drives the score down.

Florida is just consistently low for everyone on nearly every metric. The study does also note that despite all of this, Florida is still the state seeing the largest amount of migration. So, people still want to live there despite the issues.

Their definition of "worker protections" is kind of vague, but apparently Florida is in the top half of states for worker protection laws.

Florida also has good childcare availability for a red state and very good air quality, so it's not all bad!

quote:

With nearly twice as many job openings nationwide as there are workers available to fill them, companies are setting up shop where the workers are.

Each year, as part of our overall assessment of state business climates, CNBC's America's Top States for Business study considers how welcoming each state is to workers and their families.

Life, Health and Inclusion is one of the study's ten categories of competitiveness. And this year, with the nationwide worker shortage so severe, the category is taking on increased importance in our methodology.

We consider multiple quality of life factors, including crime rates, environmental quality, and health care. We also look at the quality and availability of childcare, which is one of the most important factors in getting parents back into the workforce.

Casting the widest possible net for workers means not turning anyone away. So we consider inclusiveness in state laws by measuring protections against discrimination, as well as voting rights. And with surveys showing a substantial percentage of women considering abortion restrictions when making a choice of where to live in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, reproductive rights are part of this year's equation as well.

As North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, told CNBC after being named the No. 1 State for 2023, he is worried about gains that southern states have made to become economic powerhouses in recent decades. "You still see people going to Florida and Texas, but you begin to see deterioration over time. Site selectors will tell you these issues matter when it comes time for businesses to make tough decisions."

Some states are putting out the welcome mat to attract the biggest, happiest, and most diverse workforce � America's Best States to Live and Work In. These are not those states. By the numbers, these are America's worst states to live and work in for 2023.

quote:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hopes to ride his "War on Woke" to the White House, but it is not winning his state points for quality of life. Supporters of the state's "Stop WOKE Act", which DeSantis signed into law in 2022, say it protects employees from diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives that DeSantis says are toxic. But many companies consider DEI an economic imperative, and courts have struck down parts of the law. The recent Supreme Court decision on affirmative action in higher education, however, is expected to lead to new legal challenges related to DEI programs in the corporate world.

Florida is also one of the most difficult states to vote in, according to researchers at Northern Illinois University. DeSantis argues that none of this is stopping huge numbers of people from moving to Florida, and he has a point. The state leads the nation in just about every measure of migration. But rated strictly on Life, Health and Inclusion, the Sunshine State can be a dreary place.

2023 Life, Health & Inclusion Score: 129 out of 350 points (Top States Grade: D)

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/07/14/these-are-americas-10-worst-states-to-live-and-work-in.html

# ? Jul 17, 2023 20:25

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

There is also the infamous example of Reagan who had 60% say he shouldn't run for re-election and only 20% thought the economy would improve in 1982.

Going back to this bc I found the link for the Reagan polling among all Americans that you screencapped. Aside from your apples/oranges comparison of Democrats vs. Americans, the story had some other interesting tidbits:

quote:

In the trial heat against [Ted] Kennedy, the Massachusetts Democrat currently leads by 48 to 39 percent. Pitted against Mondale, however, Reagan is ahead by 45 to 38 percent.

This is a greater lead than I've seen Biden have over Trump in any polling over the last year; as of Sept. 2022 the same poll (ABC/Wapo) had Trump leading Biden by +2. Also, as of September 1982, Reagan's approval ratings were higher than Biden's currently are or have been for a while:

quote:

Reagan's overall approval rating is holding steady, with 48 percent saying they approve his handling of the presidency and 45 percent disapproving, virtually no change from the 49-to-47 rating in a mid-August Post-ABC news poll.

Interestingly, Reagan's approvals dropped the following year but recovered in time for the 1984 election, according to CBS News:

quote:

During most of his first year in office, Reagan's approval rating hovered in the high 50s, but with the country mired in an economic recession and unemployment at 10 percent, his ratings declined. Throughout 1982 and most of 1983 his approval ratings remained below 50 percent. In January 1983, only 41 percent of Americans approved of the job Reagan was doing -- it would be the lowest rating of his presidency.

But as the economy began to rebound and unemployment declined, Reagan's ratings rebounded too. Heading into Election Day in 1984, 58 percent of Americans approved of his job performance, and he was easily reelected carrying 49 states.

The CBS News piece includes this overview of Reagan's approvals:

If it's any solace to Democrats, Obama's 2011 approval ratings were pretty much identical to Biden's current approval ratings.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 21:30

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

I am pretty confident that Joe Biden either will or will not win the election.

Check out this gnarly piece of polling from "Premise," which appears to be some kind of app-based polling service that I'm not familiar with. Who knows how accurate it is, but it is not good.

(total, women, men, going left to right)

For whatever it's worth 538's algorithm adjusted that 28-60 to a 34-59. Still worse than most recent polls for Biden, all the other approval polls released in July have had him in the typical 38-44 range.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Jul 17, 2023

# ? Jul 17, 2023 22:24

Civilized Fishbot: Apr 3, 2011

I'm pretty confident Biden will win. I'm pretty confident Trump will be the nominee, and the differences between 2020 and 2024 seem consistently favorable for Biden (Biden instead of Trump has incumbency advantage, Trump freaked people out with Jan 6, Democrats unified behind Biden instead of Republicans unified behind Trump). Also Republicans did poorly vs. expectations in 2022.

If there is an actual recession or depression going on then Trump might have a shot, otherwise I really struggle to visualize how he can outperform 2020.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 22:30

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

I had no idea that DeSantis raised more than Biden last quarter, lol. DeSantis has a primary race to run, though, while Biden's nomination is a lock.

From a Decision HQ email bulletin, based on FEC data.

Other info from the email:

quote:

While Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden and Donald Trump reported raising the most between April 1 and June 30, not all campaign money is the same. Although DeSantis' campaign brought in $20.1 million, nearly $1 of every $6 in itemized contributions (of at least $200) can only be spent on the general election, not the primary.

For Biden, that figure is higher - 20% of his Q2 itemized contributions are for the general election - but he doesn't face the same kind of primary contest that Florida's governor does. Trump, who has a tight grip on grassroots donors, raised barely any general election money. Trump effectively outraised DeSantis when it comes to money that can be used in the run-up to Iowa.

That's a clear warning sign for DeSantis, and his campaign has reacted by letting some staffers go. There's been some chatter that DeSantis' early efforts are similar to former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's 2016 campaign (as a NYT reporter I was one of the folks who looked at Walker's fundraising prowess and saw electoral strength that didn't pan out).

Biden's relative lack of small-dollar fundraising should be a concern, although absent a competitive primary that's somewhat understandable (and should Trump be his opponent again next year that likely provides some motivation for Democratic donors). It's also part of a larger piece - this year hasn't been a great for small-dollar fundraising - and something to keep an eye on.

Some other details worth mentioning include RFK Jr.'s reliance on donors who previously have given to Trump and DeSantis, the off-loading of spending onto joint fundraising committees (Biden's campaign spent just $1.1 million in Q2) and Trump's campaign payroll, which grew from $727k in Q1 to $979k in Q2.

The Most Interesting Q2 Filings

John Kennedy for Us

A quarterly haul of $2 million is pretty good for an incumbent senator who represents a state that hasn't been particularly competitive lately. That's what Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., raised according to her campaign's most recent filing, for example.

A $2 million haul for a senator who isn't even running is something different. That's the case for Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., who you may recall easily won re-election just a year ago and ruled out running for governor earlier this year.

Kennedy's 2028's campaign raised $2.1 million between March and June and ended the quarter with $11.2 million in the bank. More than half of his contributions were unitemized, largely a result of a direct mail program that the campaign spent more than $679,000 on (I'm subscribed to Kennedy's campaign emails, and there haven't been more than a dozen in the past quarter). Nearly half of the itemized individual donations to Kennedy's campaign came from outside Louisiana.

Just to underscore: this level of off-cycle fundraising for incumbent senators is kind of weird, even in the era of never-ending campaigns. Class of 2022 senators such as Mark Kelly of Arizona and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, both Democrats, raised between $700k-$800k for the quarter, for example. Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, like Kennedy, has continued raising money - he pulled in $924k in Q2 - but in his case the money has gone to repaying personal loans dating back to his 2010 and 2016 campaigns, thanks to a change in FEC regulations giving self-funders longer to repay their own loans. To raise the money, Johnson's campaign paid his digital consultant $50,000 a week for most of the quarter.

Ilhan for Congress

In 2022, Minnesota Democrat Ilhan Omar faced a strong primary challenge, beating Don Samuels by 2.2 points. The primary is the only way that Omar loses her reliably Democratic district, and her campaign's 2023 fundraising emails have adopted a tone mostly seen in competitive races (attorney Sarah Gad, who ran for the House from Illinois in 2020, is the only announced challenger so far). Last week she sent an email to her list saying there was "no way in hell" she would attend a speech by Israel's President Isaac Herzog to a joint session of Congress (she also boycotted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent speech to lawmakers, citing his government's human rights record).

Omar's campaign raised $340k in Q2, which is the smallest amount for that period in any year except for her initial campaign in 2018, and nearly $240k less than it raised in the second quarter of 2021. If Omar doesn't attract a significant challenge, that level of fundraising will be more than enough. But weaker-than-expected fundraising is a good way to invite competition.

Ted Cruz for Senate

I continue to doubt whether the Texas senator faces much of a risk next year - the recent history of well-funded Democratic challengers in the Lone Star state is one of hope over actual results - but Cruz's fundraising operation has some interesting aspects.

For one, the nearly $3.4 million he raised in Q2 is less than what he did in the second quarter in 2021, and he's about $1.5 million short of the cash he had at that point, too. As Democratic fundraiser Tim Tagaris pointed out, Cruz also seems to have shifted from online solicitations to phone calls, which were his campaign's top single expense. Direct mail is still a feature of his fundraising, too, but it's hard to think of many other folks with a national profile using phone calls as a leading method of raising money.

Sinema for Arizona/GSD PAC

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's campaign raised $1.6 million in Q2, which isn't bad.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 22:43

Timmy Age 6: Jul 23, 2011; Lobster says "mrow?"; Ramrod XTreme

Axios just put out a bit on "who do young Americans blame for the student debt burden not being forgiven?"

The image really says most of it, but also interesting is that three quarters of the survey respondents said they knew about the ruling before being asked by the poll - pretty high level of awareness, but not surprising. Can't find the raw data/crosstabs, alas.

# ? Jul 17, 2023 22:53

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Civilized Fishbot posted:

I'm pretty confident Biden will win. I'm pretty confident Trump will be the nominee, and the differences between 2020 and 2024 seem consistently favorable for Biden (Biden instead of Trump has incumbency advantage, Trump freaked people out with Jan 6, Democrats unified behind Biden instead of Republicans unified behind Trump). Also Republicans did poorly vs. expectations in 2022.

My wildly optimistic take, that's not really a "prediction" but I think it's within the realm of possibility:

2022 was a "red wave." That is to say, it's as far above "baseline" for the Republicans as 2010 was, it's just that their baseline has fallen through the floor. "Barely winning" is the best Republicans can do. Trump dragging the party into an obsession with a bullshit conspiracy theory that nobody outside his most fervent supporters believes has destroyed Republicans' credibility, and people have finally caught on to their 40 years of bullshit and corruption and inaction. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has reminded people how much ability the right has to suppress our rights. It's not the same playing field it was in 2020.

Their nominee will probably be Trump, who will be on trial for major crimes, with evidence of said crimes being splashed all over the news every single day, in a way that makes buttery mails look modest. Or, it will be somebody else, which might be even worse for them, because Trump wouldn't be able to resist constantly slagging the GOP candidate (if he's not actively running against them.) There is a large part of the party that won't vote for Trump, and a large part of the party that won't vote for anybody else. They are absolutely hosed and headed for a wipeout.

So, that's all some best-case-scenario stuff that could happen.

More generally, I'm getting twitchy about it, because his approvals are slowly sliding right now despite nothing even really happening, but I'll stand by my prediction of 400+ EVs for Biden. The Republicans are in such a bad position and I don't see a way for them to get themselves out.

Willa Rogers posted:

I had no idea that DeSantis raised more than Biden last quarter, lol. DeSantis has a primary race to run, though, while Biden's nomination is a lock.

I don't think Biden's going to be hurting for cash. (Neither would DeSantis, if he won the nomination, which I tend to agree with you re: the implausibility of.)

Timmy Age 6 posted:

The image really says most of it, but also interesting is that three quarters of the survey respondents said they knew about the ruling before being asked by the poll - pretty high level of awareness, but not surprising. Can't find the raw data/crosstabs, alas.

While people are generally uninterested in government policy, they usually are quite interested in the status of their $Thousands!

# ? Jul 17, 2023 23:39

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

Trump not getting the nomination would be terminal for the Republican party. No matter who the nominee would be every single minute of coverage would be "and let's check in with Trump to see how he feels about this". Trump and his cult followers would make it their mission to absolutely shatter the party.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 00:23

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Trump has about as much of a chance of losing the GOP nomination as Biden does the Democrats', any wishcasting to the contrary.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 00:41

BiggerBoat: Sep 26, 2007; Don't you tell me my business again.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Their definition of "worker protections" is kind of vague, but apparently Florida is in the top half of states for worker protection laws.

Florida also has good childcare availability for a red state and very good air quality, so it's not all bad!

I live in Florida and if these things are true then this country is in far worse shape than I thought. Because I liked to poo poo when I read those rankings.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 00:41

Twincityhacker: Feb 18, 2011

Yeah, the only reason why Trump wouldn't win the Republican nomination is that he's dead. Or *maybe* extremely ill to the point where Trump himself recognizes that he's not up to running, but that's a pretty big maybe.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 00:50

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

If Trump pulled out for health reasons they would still nominate him. They're not going to let anything stand in the way of voting for Trump, not even Trump.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 00:57

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Twincityhacker posted:

Yeah, the only reason why Trump wouldn't win the Republican nomination is that he's dead. Or *maybe* extremely ill to the point where Trump himself recognizes that he's not up to running, but that's a pretty big maybe.

As long as he's semi-conscious he will refuse to bow out. So it's death or prolonged coma. Better hope he doesn't wake up before the election too.

Fake coma. Fake coma. I've never been more awake. Pudding Fingers poisoned me to take me out, but it didn't work. Mason Storm, great American, came up with tears in his eyes and said "Sir, let me help get you out of here." So your favorite President is back and they won't steal this election.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 01:11

duodenum: Sep 18, 2005

Ron DeSantis used to pronounce his name Dee-Santis because �Rhonda Santis� was his nickname in middle school. Trump is losing his touch, �DeSanctimonious� is way too huge and baffling to his base. �Rhonda� would be much more harmful and pithy.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 01:21

Neo Rasa: Mar 8, 2007; Everyone should play DUKE games.

duodenum posted:

Ron DeSantis used to pronounce his name Dee-Santis because �Rhonda Santis� was his nickname in middle school. Trump is losing his touch, �DeSanctimonious� is way too huge and baffling to his base. �Rhonda� would be much more harmful and pithy.

I think even Trump realizes he's just going to coast into the nomination so why bother.

Like if DeSantis started polling great all of a sudden he'd start calling him Ron Dipshit and his supporters would love him even more.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 01:44

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

When the hell did Larry Elder announce his campaign

# ? Jul 18, 2023 02:07

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

DeSanctimonious was just one of his early scatter shots. Remember that it was Trump's guys who put out that pudding ad. The main reason Trump isn't dunking all over Ron is the same reason he isn't talking about any of the other losers running.

FlamingLiberal posted:

When the hell did Larry Elder announce his campaign

Back in April or the beginning of May.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 02:07

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Mellow Seas posted:

(total, women, men, going left to right)

For whatever it's worth 538's algorithm adjusted that 28-60 to a 34-59. Still worse than most recent polls for Biden, all the other approval polls released in July have had him in the typical 38-44 range.

I have a hard time believing men approve of Biden more than women.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 05:14

Fister Roboto: Feb 21, 2008

Charlz Guybon posted:

I have a hard time believing men approve of Biden more than women.

Why is that?

# ? Jul 18, 2023 05:29

yronic heroism: Oct 31, 2008

Presumably, the partisan gender gap being in the other direction.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 06:06

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Mellow Seas posted:

Check out this gnarly piece of polling from "Premise," which appears to be some kind of app-based polling service that I'm not familiar with. Who knows how accurate it is, but

Why would you do this.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 06:45

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

The Trump victory was definitely something of a one-time high, especially with all the 'I didn't think he would actually do it!' idiots. The novelty's worn off, he's not fun anymore. And Republican attempts to smear Biden probably come off as cringe and limp-dicked as Democrat attempts to praise him, they can't activate the same outrage as that which was cultivated for years for the Clintons. (Who certainly didn't make it hard for them either)

Also probably some truth to how it's hard for Republicans to whip up the same froth against old white guys. They were terrified of Bernie probably for that reason, that and Bernie actually being willing to directly challenge their talking points, conservative media carefully erased him from the narrative as much as liberal media did. Even if Biden doesn't even try to excite anyone, coasting on sheer momentum at least makes less unforced errors out of hubris.

Mellow Seas posted:

If Trump pulled out for health reasons they would still nominate him. They're not going to let anything stand in the way of voting for Trump, not even Trump.

They would absolutely Golden Throne him if necessary. And I'm not sure how much of that would be a joke.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 07:36

Kulkasha: Jan 15, 2010; But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Likchenpa.

duodenum posted:

Ron DeSantis used to pronounce his name Dee-Santis because “Rhonda Santis” was his nickname in middle school. Trump is losing his touch, “DeSanctimonious” is way too huge and baffling to his base. “Rhonda” would be much more harmful and pithy.

After such classics as "That's sugar, man!" and "Wow, hungwy" DeSantis needs no help in sinking his own campaign, on top of the fact that he has not been able to land a single hit on Trump.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 10:44

Adenoid Dan: Mar 8, 2012; The Hobo Serenader; Lipstick Apathy

Speaking of DeSantis, I don't think this was mentioned.

I guess it's pretty common for politicians to publicly pray, but how often do they take credit for specific events not happening as a result?

# ? Jul 18, 2023 13:36

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

A U.S. national (a "low-ranking soldier") stepped over the demarcation line that separates North and South Korea and has was taken by North Korean security forces.

Developing story without a lot of details yet, but it is assumed he is being detained somewhere in North Korea.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1681260159807397888
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1681294002211938304

quote:

A US national is believed to be in North Korean custody after crossing the border during a tour, a United Nations agency said Tuesday.

The man is believed to be a US soldier, a US official said. He was detained during a Joint Security Area tour after crossing the Military Demarcation Line separating North and South Korea, the United Nations Command said in a tweet.

�A U.S. National on a JSA orientation tour crossed, without authorization, the Military Demarcation Line into the Democratic People�s Republic of Korea (DPRK). We believe he is currently in DPRK custody and are working with our KPA counterparts to resolve this incident,� the UNC said.

The Joint Security Area is located inside the Demilitarized Zone between South and North Korea, and tours of the area are open to the public and organized by the United Nations Command.

The Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea has become one of the most heavily fortified borders in the world, ringed by miles of barbed wire and landmines and patrolled by soldiers from both sides for decades. But the Joint Security Area is a slightly different beast.

While there are a series of checkpoints that must be passed to get to the JSA, crossing the Military Demarcation Line that is the actual border between North and South Korea does not require passing any physical barrier. There is only a small raised line on the ground that marks the border, and stepping across it requires only one step, as former US President Donald Trump did in 2018 when he met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the JSA in 2019.

During a JSA tour, participants are kept about 20 yards or so from the line Trump stepped across. Though there are guards on the South Korean side of the border during the tours, no guards were seen on the North Korean side when CNN took a press tour of the JSA last year.

The prospect of a US national being held in North Korean military custody comes at a time of fraught diplomacy and rising military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Under leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea has been ramping up tests of potentially nuclear capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, something South Korea and its treaty ally the United States are keen to push back on.

The same day the US national crossed the border, another moment of intense historic and strategic symbolism was taking place at the South Korean port of Busan � for the first time since the early 1980s a nuclear capable US submarine was making a port call.

That visit came as Kurt Campbell, coordinator for the Indo-Pacific at the US National Security Council, was at the inaugural meeting in Seoul of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG).

The NCG is a joint US and South Korean panel set up by the countries� leaders at a summit in Washington in April.

During that summit US President Joe Biden and South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol unveiled a �Washington Declaration� that included a set of measures aimed at making Pyongyang think twice about launching an attack on its southern neighbor.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 14:33

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

The Special Counsel's Office has informed Trump that he is a target in their investigation into January 6th and attempts to overturn the 2020 election and that indictments for those charges may be incoming.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1681296123460239360

quote:

Special counsel Jack Smith has informed former President Donald Trump by letter that he is a target in his investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election, sources familiar with the matter tell ABC News.

The letter, which sources said was transmitted to Trump's attorneys in recent days, indicates that yet another indictment of the former president could be imminent -- though it is not immediately clear what kind of charges he could ultimately face.

Target letters are typically given to subjects in a criminal investigation to put them on notice that they are facing the prospect of indictment.

Trump similarly received a target letter from Smith before he was indicted by a grand jury in Florida for his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving the White House and his alleged efforts to obstruct the government's investigation.

Smith took control of the sprawling Justice Department investigation into the failed efforts by Trump and his allies to thwart his election loss upon his appointment as special counsel in November of last year, and in recent months dozens of witnesses have appeared to testify before a federal grand jury in Washington, D.C.

According to sources, prosecutors have questioned witnesses specifically about the efforts to put forward false slates of so-called false electors that were to have cast electoral college votes during the certification for Trump in key swing states that he lost to President Joe Biden.

Investigators have also sought information on Trump's actions and his state of mind in the days leading up to and on Jan. 6, 2021, when thousands of Trump supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol, temporarily disrupting the certification and causing lawmakers and former Vice President Pence to flee the building.

Trump was indicted last month on 37 criminal counts related to his handling of classified materials, after Smith's prosecutors said he repeatedly refused to return hundreds of documents containing classified information ranging from U.S. nuclear secrets to the nation's defense capabilities. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 14:39

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021

Adenoid Dan posted:

Speaking of DeSantis, I don't think this was mentioned.

I guess it's pretty common for politicians to publicly pray, but how often do they take credit for specific events not happening as a result?

He watches how conservatives respond to populist leaders and what poo poo best aligns them as culture warrior simps, and he decides which personas and strategies and messaging he's going to imitate.

Here he's transparently adopting the messianic shepard bit. It's got the same super obvious levels of fakeassery as any of the rest of the poo poo he does, especially when he tries to repeat trump energy

But that poo poo hasn't mattered in almost a decade lol

# ? Jul 18, 2023 14:50

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

Paging Discendo Vox!

https://twitter.com/gidmk/status/1681151926774423554?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA

Can someone (or him) dig up his effort posts about how the supplement industry is an unregulated right wing scam protected by senators from Utah?

# ? Jul 18, 2023 15:17

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021

FizFashizzle posted:

Paging Discendo Vox!

https://twitter.com/gidmk/status/1681151926774423554?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA

Can someone (or him) dig up his effort posts about how the supplement industry is an unregulated right wing scam protected by senators from Utah?

american conservatives can even ruin minerals. just ruining poo poo right down to the atomic level

# ? Jul 18, 2023 15:20

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Hey, I took the supplements advertised on InfoWars and I got way redder and 50% better at sucking in my gut. poo poo works.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 15:28

Blue Footed Booby: Oct 4, 2006; got those happy feet

Mellow Seas posted:

Hey, I took the supplements advertised on InfoWars and I got way redder and 50% better at sucking in my gut. poo poo works.

I did the same but they were contaminated with liberalism and now I'm a black trans furry communist and able to photosynthesize.

It's wild to me how much worse this poo poo is in the conservosphere. Like, it's not surprising that grifters target groups of self-identified easy marks, but holy poo poo have they been successful.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 15:39

Boot and Rally: Apr 21, 2006; 8===D; Nap Ghost

How much of those GPD gains in the US since 2008 are house prices and finance? If anyone has time series data on GDP breakdown by industry, that would be useful.

Looking at 2022 20% of GDP is Finance and Real Estate, the next highest is Professional and Business Services (PrBS) at 13%. Naively assuming that growth is the same across the whole 15 years then Finance and Real Estate is 1.2^15 = 15.4 times value add and PrBS is 1.13^15 = 6.25 times value add. Probably have to dig around in FRED.

E: Changed wording to be consistent with "value added".

Boot and Rally fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Jul 18, 2023

# ? Jul 18, 2023 15:43

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

FizFashizzle posted:

Paging Discendo Vox!

https://twitter.com/gidmk/status/1681151926774423554?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA

Can someone (or him) dig up his effort posts about how the supplement industry is an unregulated right wing scam protected by senators from Utah?

It's not as simple as it being a right-wing scam, it's more that the Utah senators (and investment groups that are proxies for the LDS) were major advocates and winners when the dietary supplement law, DSHEA, first passed. There's left and right entities and constituencies for the market, which is part of why it's stuck around.

As the accompanying editorial from CSPI notes, though, a lot of the Congressional defenders of dietary supplements are gone, so now is a good time for reform. The editorial describes some potentially viable actions. A good thing to contact your member of Congress about!

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Jul 18, 2023

# ? Jul 18, 2023 16:28

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

Boston Globe also printed a No Labels piece though one I think is more critical than CNN:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/17/metro/no-labels-pitches-centrist-lane-2024-presidential-race-alarming-democrats/

quote:

MANCHESTER, N.H. � Think of it as an �insurance� policy. That�s what former North Carolina governor Pat McCrory, a Republican, said of an effort by the No Labels group to prepare the way for a third-party presidential candidate to appear on the ballot in all 50 states.

If the Republicans and Democrats renominate former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Biden in 2024 for a rematch, which polling suggests is both likely and unpopular, then a centrist alternative could break through partisan gridlock, said McCrory, one of the group�s national co-chairs.

�We hope we won�t have to do it,� he added during a town hall Monday evening at the Saint Anselm College New Hampshire Institute of Politics, where the group touted a �Common Sense� pamphlet of its priorities.

The primary goal is for those principles to influence political discourse as the presidential campaign season unfolds, but if the Trump-Biden rematch takes shape and No Labels sees a path to third-party victory, they may take it, McCrory said.

That �insurance� policy, however, sounds more like a threat in the ears of Democrats who support Biden�s re-election bid. They contend that No Labels is embarking on an effort that will enhance Trump�s odds of winning.

�Let me be clear: No Labels is trying to use a false message of unity to sow division,� Democratic Representative Annie Kuster of New Hampshire said Monday. �Their plan to run a third-party ticket in 2024 will pave the path for the most extreme, far-right candidate to win the White House.�

Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic super PAC, said he�s on high alert about the threat a well-heeled third-party ticket could pose to Biden�s electoral success.

�You cannot have a spoiler candidate on the ballot if you want to defeat Trump in 2024,� he told the Globe. �That is the reality. That�s just math.�

Dennis said he basically sees No Labels as a Republican operation at this point. The group�s founders, Nancy Jacobson and Mark McKinnon, have been on �a journey of self-discovery� with regard to their political views. And he said their actions make sense only if they want to elect Trump.

That message was reinforced by illuminated signs on all sides of two large box trucks that drove back and forth in front of the town hall venue Monday. The signs, which were paid for by The Lincoln Project, said, �No Labels elects Trump.�

The headliners for the town hall were Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr., who has also served as an ambassador. They bristled at questions about whether they would be the presidential and vice presidential candidates if a No Labels ticket takes shape.

�I think people are putting the cart ahead of the horse,� Manchin said, repeatedly deflecting follow-up questions from Scripps News reporter Kevin Cirilli, who moderated the event.

Manchin, who is cited most often as a potential presidential candidate for the No Labels ticket, said he doesn�t run for office to be a spoiler. He said he would run to win, though he has yet to decide whether to do so.

Rather than focusing on the potential horse race, Manchin and Huntsman said they wanted to talk about substantive issues to improve the health of American democracy, like the issues in the �Common Sense� pamphlet.

That 63-page document raises a number of ideas, including a bipartisan commission to reduce the national debt, expanding gun background checks, taking an �all of the above� approach to energy policy, and striking �a balance� on abortion between a woman�s right to choose and �society�s responsibility to protect human life.� The document discusses these topics at a high level, as Manchin and Huntsman did Monday as well.

At one point, Huntsman said New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu should have been on stage.

�I didn�t know I was going to be sitting up here until a couple of weeks ago,� Huntsman added.

Although the Wall Street Journal editorialized that Sununu could be a good fit for the No Labels ticket and Sununu told The New York Times that the group �seems to be tapping into what America is looking for right now,� Sununu told reporters at the town hall that he wouldn�t consider endorsing a No Labels ticket.

�I�m a Republican,� he said flatly.

While establishment Democrats expressed alarm about what No Labels is up to, the audience at Monday�s town hall � which filled the main venue and multiple overflow rooms � suggests a segment of the electorate is eager to hear a political message that cuts across party lines.

Len Morrill, 76, an independent voter from Manchester, said he couldn�t bring himself to back the major-party nominees in 2016 and 2020, so he cast write-in votes for John Kasich then Tulsi Gabbard. He said he appreciated the No Labels town hall and hopes their centrist messaging influences the other parties and campaigns.

Morrill said he figures No Labels is more interested in influencing public discourse than actually launching a third-party presidential bid.

�I hope they keep that option open,� he added. �And let�s see what happens. � The country can�t take what we�ve got right now.�

I glanced over their pamphlet, it's Republicans.pdf. I can go a deeper dive if people want to see the awful crap they are peddling but the best way to describe it is Generic Republican Talking point, token watered down Democratic fig leaf.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 19:43

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Las Vegas police think they might know who killed Tupac and just raided someone's house with a warrant.

https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1681381712121438209

quote:

Las Vegas Metro police searched a home Monday as part of its ongoing investigation into the death of Tupac Shakur, police confirmed to the 8 News Now Investigators.

Shakur was shot and killed one block off the Las Vegas Strip in September 1996. His murder remains unsolved.

Detectives served the search warrant at a home in Henderson near Interstate 11 and Wagon Wheel Drive, sources told the 8 News Now Investigators.

Police did not comment further. No arrest had been made as of Tuesday.

This is a developing story.

# ? Jul 18, 2023 20:52

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Las Vegas police think they might know who killed Tupac and just raided someone's house with a warrant.

https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1681381712121438209

drat, there's gonna be so many lovely rap bars written off this no matter what happens

# ? Jul 18, 2023 20:59

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 19:55

DeathChicken: Jul 9, 2012; Nonsense. I have not yet begun to defile myself.

I could have sworn they figured out awhile ago it was a couple of Crips (who later got themselves killed in unrelated dumbfuckery)

# ? Jul 18, 2023 23:02

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

«‹›797 »