- Paracaidas
- Sep 24, 2016
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Consistently Tedious!
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Keith Law Midseason Top 60 -- anyone presently on an MLB roster is ineligible per his rules. The column, in all its glory, is over the character limit and extremely long so I've purged most of the descriptions. Happy to fulfill any requests though
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1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: No. 19
2. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 3
3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: No. 11
4. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Salas turned 17 on June 1 and is already hitting .280/.388/.500 in 34 games in Low A as the youngest player in any full-season league this year. His feel for the strike zone is incredible for his age, with 23 walks so far and some great swing decisions, while his strikeout rate of 22.5 percent is better than the league average of 24.4 percent. He has the hands and arm to be a plus defensive catcher and he’s bilingual already, although I’ve heard some mixed reviews on the defense in his limited time so far in pro ball. It’s easy to assume he’s a long way from the majors given his age – he’s younger than every player taken in this year’s MLB draft – but I think the feel to hit is already advanced enough that he could see the majors before he’s 20. It’s a high-OBP, 20-plus homer upside along with what should be plus defense across the board at one of the hardest positions on the diamond.
5. Junior Caminero, 3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: No. 99
6. Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
Previous ranking: Ineligible
The No. 1 player on my Big Board this year, Crews went to the Nats with the second overall pick after a tremendous career at LSU that saw him win the Golden Spikes Award this spring in a very crowded field. He’s an outstanding hitter who shows excellent feel for the zone and makes excellent swing decisions, looking for pitches he can drive and using the whole field well while showing power from the pull side over to right-center. He’s a 55 runner who has developed into at least a solid-average defender in center, good enough to project him to stay there going forward, although I think he’ll end up pushed to a corner by a plus defender at some point (such as fellow Nats prospect James Wood). The bat will play anywhere and he’s a likely high-average, .400 OBP guy who should get to 20-plus homers a year – and might see the majors by this time in 2024.
7. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 9
8. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Previous ranking: No. 22
9. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres
Previous ranking: No. 20
The Padres’ first-round pick in 2021, Merrill got substantially stronger in his first offseason with the club and hasn’t stopped hitting since, showing better contact quality and more power than expected in the two years he’s spent in pro ball. He’s an exceptional hitter for any sort of contact with a strikeout rate of just 11.9 percent so far this year, mostly in High A with a promotion in mid-July to Double A, and he hammers fastballs. He’s had some more difficulty squaring up offspeed stuff this year, still making a lot of contact but with worse results, and pitchers have been challenging him just off the plate with more success, which is part of why he’s lost over 100 points off his BABIP from 2022 to 2023.
10. Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: No. 53
11. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 45
12. Curtis Mead, 3B/1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: No. 24
13. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Langford was the No. 4 pick in this month’s MLB draft, coming off a season where he hit .373/.498/.784 with 23 homers for the University of Florida. He’s a 70 runner with plus power and a swing that is geared to drive the ball out from left to center, with strong plate discipline that took a big step forward this spring. He played left field for the Gators and was not a great defender even with his speed, so while I expect the Rangers to try him in center, he’s probably going to end up in a corner. He might have some trouble with velocity up in or above the zone at first, but that’s probably his one weakness at the plate. The upside here of a 30-homer guy with a high OBP and some base running value made him the No. 2 player on my board, only behind Dylan Crews.
14. Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: No. 29
15. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: No. 18
16. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Skenes was the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft after leading Division I in strikeouts this spring for LSU. The 6-6 right-hander is the hardest-throwing amateur starter I’ve ever seen, sitting 100 mph for several innings and still topping out there deep into starts, pairing it with a plus slider to keep hitters from trying to sit on the heater. He hides the ball very well behind his body thanks to a compact arm action, which should help the fastball as well, although he does need to develop his changeup, a pitch he has barely used because why would you give the hitter a break like that? It’s already average command with two plus pitches, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think the third will come with more use, giving him top-of-the-rotation upside if he stays healthy.
17. Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: No. 51
The Twins were aggressive with Lee, the No. 8 pick in the 2022 draft, sending him to Double A to start his first full pro season, and he’s responded by hitting .282/.361/.468 so far for Wichita with a Texas League-leading 29 doubles. Lee’s a hitter first who might come into 15-20 homer power in time, but the whole approach is geared to line-drive contact across the whole field. A jump from college one spring to Double A the next would be a big challenge for most players, but Lee’s pitch recognition has always been strong and it’s carried over into pro ball. He’s still playing shortstop but I think he’ll move to third or second by the time he sees the majors. Lee’s a high floor guy, as it’s very hard to imagine he’s less than a regular, although I think the only way he’s a true star is if he’s a consistent .300+ hitter and gets toward that power ceiling.
18. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: No. 26
Crow-Armstrong was the return in the trade that sent Javier Báez to the Mets for his last two months before free agency, and since the deal Crow-Armstrong has changed his body and his game to be more of a power-hitting center fielder rather than a high-average one who might not get to 10 homers. He’s at 11 this year already after hitting 16 last season, still playing grade-70 defense in center and adding value as a base stealer (23 for 30 this year). He’s become a little too pull-oriented, with all of his homers this year going out to right or right-center, and he expands the zone as the count progresses, both of which are why his strikeout rates are higher than they should be. The defense will carry him, but there’s a ceiling here where he finds the balance between the contact-oriented guy he was in high school and the 20+ homer guy he’s become.
19. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 6
Cartaya’s 2023 season has been a modest disaster, if we’re being candid here. As I write this, he hasn’t had a hit since the All-Star break, going 0 for 16 with 8 strikeouts in the first four games back, bringing his average below .200 for the season. He’s not hitting the ball as hard this year as he has in previous seasons, even last year when he dealt with a myriad of problems with his back, hamstring, hand, and three of his four bodily humors. He’s improved behind the plate, which is one positive sign, and has been working on some of the less visible aspects of the job like game-planning. The old axiom about catchers taking longer to develop, which I mentioned in my comments on Jeferson Quero, might apply here, as Cartaya’s moved very quickly — he’s 21 in Double A, and came into the year with just 126 total games in the U.S. under his belt — and I’m keeping him in the top 20 in the belief that the bat will bounce back.
20. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals
Previous ranking: No. 16
Wood started the year in High-A Wilmington, which worked out well for me as a Delaware resident, and hit so well the Nats promoted him to Double A before June began. The jewel of the Juan Soto trade so far — well, other than Soto himself — was pretty dominant for the Blue Rocks, with a .293/.392/.580 line and outstanding defense in center, although he struck out 27 percent of the time. That has proven a harbinger of some trouble at the higher level, where he’s punched out 31 percent of the time already. He’s 6-7, and hitters that tall have more trouble covering the zone because of their sheer size, with Wood already showing some in-zone miss and struggling to lay off or foul off pitches just off the zone. He’s an absurd athlete who has three 70s on the scouting report in his power, speed, and defense. If it all clicks, it’s 30/30 in center field. The risk in the bat is what keeps him from the top 10 right now.
21. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
Previous ranking: No. 25
22. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: No. 48
Rodriguez missed the last two-thirds of 2022 after a knee injury, then started this season not just rusty, but like a giant tower of iron oxides and hydroxides, hitting .163/.320/.357 through the end of May, which I like to think of as an “oh no did I rank this guy too high?” triple-slash line. He had three hits with a homer on June 1 and has been better since then, hitting .256/.421/.470 with the same outstanding patience and willingness to run deep counts. He just does not chase — his chase rate this year is 14 percent, which is lower than Juan Soto’s chase rate in every year of his MLB career — but takes too many strikes right now, which I think is an easier thing to fix than someone’s pitch or ball/strike recognition. He’s got plus-plus raw power and should get to that more in games as he gets a little more experience. A centerfielder now, Rodriguez probably moves to right before too long, but the potential for a .400 OBP with 25 homers there would make him at least an above-average regular.
23. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: No. 46
24. Max Clark, OF, Detroit Tigers
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Clark was the closest thing to a five-tool player in this year’s draft class, and probably goes first overall in a lot of years — while Holliday is obviously the better prospect now, I think Clark was more impressive at the same age, and that’s not any knock on the current top prospect in the minors. Clark has an excellent left-handed swing that produces pretty easy power, while he’s a 70 runner who can play the heck out of center field, and he’s shown good plate discipline already in the limited times he’s been able to demonstrate it. He’s a hard worker by all accounts and doesn’t seem the least bit fazed by attention, of which he’s going to get a lot more once he hits the minor leagues. There’s certainly superstar potential here, on and off the field, and we’ll get a better gauge on how long it’ll take him to get there once he starts playing in the GCL or Low A next month.
25. Walker Jenkins, OF, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Jenkins was the fifth pick in this year’s draft and fifth on my board, but I know plenty of scouts who thought he was the best player available and think he’s a young Larry Walker. It’s a gorgeous left-handed swing, and he’s a projectable athlete who runs above average and plays center now, eventually moving to right field and probably becoming a plus defender there. He didn’t face much good pitching at all this spring – he walked four times the night I saw him, and two of the four came back to bite the opposing coach, which served him right — so the confidence in his hit tool is based as much on the swing than results. This is, as they say, what they’re supposed to look like, and I could easily see him becoming a .280+ hitter with 25-30 homers and strong OBPs.
26. Tink Hence, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: No. 63
27. Jasson Dominguez, OF, New York Yankees
Previous ranking: No. 32
As I look around on the Jasson Dominguez bandwagon, it appears there are some empty seats that were occupied in February, so feel free to hop aboard. The Martian has hit .220/.358/.383 for Double-A Somerset, but he’s still flashing plus power, running plus-plus, playing solid or better defense in center, and controlling the zone very well for his age. There’s been too much in-zone miss, especially with right-handers going with fastballs middle-away to him, but the rest of the package is intact and he’s younger than the college guys who were just drafted and will probably start in A-ball. Maybe he just won’t move as fast as it seemed last August, but there’s still huge upside with these tools and he’s still got plenty of an idea at the plate to get there.
28. Justin Crawford, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Previous ranking: Unranked
29. Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets
Previous ranking: No. 87
30. Brady House, 3B, Washington Nationals
Previous ranking: No. 85
31. Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 41
32. Cole Young, SS, Seattle Mariners
Previous ranking: Unranked
33. Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Previous ranking: Unranked
34. Sammy Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: Unranked
35. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Previous ranking: No. 83
36. Joey Ortiz, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: No. 95
37. Yanquiel Fernandez, OF, Colorado Rockies
Previous ranking: Unranked
38. Dalton Rushing, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 62
39. Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners
Previous ranking: No. 65
40. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Previous ranking: No. 12
41. River Ryan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: Unranked
42. Sebastian Walcott, 3B, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: Ineligible
43. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Previous ranking: Unranked
44. Adael Amador, SS, Colorado Rockies
Previous ranking: No. 98
45. Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: Unranked
46. Tyler Black, IF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 96
47. Noelvi Marte, 3B/SS, Cincinnati Reds
Previous ranking: No. 49
48. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: No. 37
49. Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: Just missed
50. Kyle Teel, C, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: Ineligible
51. Everson Pereira, OF, New York Yankees
Previous ranking: No. 86
52. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 38
53. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: Unranked
54. Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 14
It’s been a lost year for Jones, who’s been on the IL twice already with a quad strain and a hamstring strain, and in 60 plate appearances for Low-A Visalia around the injuries he hit just .175/.283/.200. He was the top prospect in the 2022 draft class and went second overall, but hurt his shoulder almost immediately and missed the rest of the year, the same shoulder injury that befell Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar, unfortunately, so those 60 plate appearances are all we’ve seen of Jones to date. He has shown plus power and 70 defense in center with a solid idea of the strike zone as an amateur, along with plus speed, so he has the tools to be a top-10 prospect in the sport. But the limited results have been poor and there’s talk of an attempt to revamp his swing for more contact. He’s stuck in neutral until he’s back on the field and can show some production, which may be several more weeks away.
55. Matt Shaw, SS, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: Ineligible
56. Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: Unranked
57. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
Previous ranking: No. 61
58. Luisangel Acuña, SS, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: Unranked
59. Gavin Stone, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 39
60. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: Unranked
Honorable mentions
I’m doing a longer list of honorable mentions this year than usual, since the back of the top 60 was pretty hard to settle on. This list is in alphabetical order, not rank, but all of these players would be on a top 100 if I did a ranking that long right now.
Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia
Edwin Arroyo, SS, Cincinnati
Warming Bernabel, 3B, Colorado
Brainer Bonaci, SS/2B, Boston
Cam Collier, 3B, Cincinnati
Dylan Lesko, RHP, San Diego
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Toronto
Connor Norby, IF, Baltimore
Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia
Kevin Parada, C, NY Mets
Alex Ramirez, OF, NY Mets
Robbie Snelling, LHP, San Diego
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Pittsburgh
James Triantos, 2B, Chicago Cubs
George Valera, OF, Cleveland
Zac Veen, OF, Colorado
Jett Williams, SS, NY Mets
Sammy Zavala, OF, San Diego
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