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fatherboxx)
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Helicopters, especially attack variants wouldn't have much use in Ukraine's current situation. What rotary assets they have are being used in hit and run lobbing attacks and even then it is questionable how useful they really are. Most of what you would want an Apache or the like you could easily use a drone for with less risk. For example if they had Predators they could launch Hellfires at targets. The pluses there are tenfold; smaller airframe which is harder for anti-air to spot and target, if it is destroyed you aren't losing valuable pilots and you are more willing to use them in more risky situations where you would not be willing to risk a human pilot and airframe; for example deep strike behind enemy lines. The US has a ton of them sitting that they couldn't get anyone to take before so I have to imagine that Ukraine has to have at least a few at this point. Really most of the roles that the rotary airframes have traditionally been used for either have been or are going to be replaced by unmanned aircraft or drones. One has to believe that the CAS and SEAD/DEAD roles will be filled by unmanned airframes in the near future if there isn't already secret operational options in use. You have to remember that the US military has been very quiet with new capabilities since the end of the Cold War. The stuff that has been fielded have been using tech that is effectively 80s vintage. The F-35 and B-21 are effectively slight upgrades on 1980s tech, same with the various UAVs the sensors, optics and electronics are updated but the core system is still based out of the 1980s. What is being kept in the black would be keeping me up at night if I were a near peer adversary.
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Jul 24, 2023 16:27
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If any goons itt have real expertise in rotary-wing aviation I'd be interested in informed opinions about uncrewed platforms taking over for crewed rotary wing. The US Army just awarded a large contract to replace UH-60 Blackhawks with something that looks like a bigger Osprey (hopefully this one doesn't have the same bloodthirst for its passengers), and says its committed to getting a modern attack-scout helicopter. The Air Force, meanwhile, is busy developing its Next Generation Air Dominance platform (think: successor to the F-22), and envisions using semi-ablative "wingmen" uncrewed craft, which function similar to mission pods on modern aircraft. I think Russia's use of Ka-52s demonstrate that crewed rotary attack aircraft may not be entirely obsolete, but they do seem to be more niche than before. This is not my area of expertise, though.
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Jul 24, 2023 16:51
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On the Kharkiv front, has anyone seen any good reports on what's going on? I'm seeing on the Finnish OSINT tracker map a note of the Russians successfully crossing a river, so I suppose the 100k troops placed there are getting somewhere? https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194
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Jul 24, 2023 17:05
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Ynglaur posted:I think Russia's use of Ka-52s demonstrate that crewed rotary attack aircraft may not be entirely obsolete, but they do seem to be more niche than before. This is not my area of expertise, though. How are they using the Ka-52s?
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Jul 24, 2023 17:06
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Basically as floating, unguided rocket artillery.
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Jul 24, 2023 17:25
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Ynglaur posted:
I feel that's a very confident statement that overplays the power of artillery. A dozen HIMARS completely stopped the russian army's advance last year.
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Jul 24, 2023 17:34
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APKWS for plinking designated targets via rocket could be useful, but then youd need an expendable drone capable of designating for a heli with a comparatively short range and at that point you can just drop a GMLRS round on it
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Jul 24, 2023 17:34
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Dandywalken posted:APKWS for plinking designated targets via rocket could be useful, but then youd need an expendable drone capable of designating for a heli with a comparatively short range and at that point you can just drop a GMLRS round on it And at that point you might as well put the APKWS rockets on the drone to do both.
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Jul 24, 2023 17:38
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Moon Slayer posted:Basically as floating, unguided rocket artillery. Nope. Ka-52 is the best rotary wing platform available to them specifically because it doesn't have to do that, and can fire ATGMs instead. It's lovely compared to an Apache because it has to hover in place when doing that, but it's still a pretty nice capability. It's what caused the loss of the few leos and bradleys that we got 400 different views of.
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Jul 24, 2023 17:39
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Tuna-Fish posted:Nope. Ka-52 is the best rotary wing platform available to them specifically because it doesn't have to do that, and can fire ATGMs instead. It's lovely compared to an Apache because it has to hover in place when doing that, but it's still a pretty nice capability. KA-52 has some interesting longish range weapon too which I forgot the name of. Like 15km or so. Cant carry as many as Vikhr though. Surprised US never went for something Brimstone-tier for range, but meh.
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Jul 24, 2023 17:48
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Dandywalken posted:KA-52 has some interesting longish range weapon too which I forgot the name of. Like 15km or so. Cant carry as many as Vikhr though. Surprised US never went for something Brimstone-tier for range, but meh. The US has used ATG missiles or guided bombs from fixed wing aircraft for that capability. The new rotary craft the US is looking at is using the push craft ideas that were first pushed in the 80s. The idea is they can station rotary airframes further from the front, have greater speed going to and from station using less fuel. Not sure how the trade off will be with noise and added complexity. It makes sense with transport rotary since you want people in and out quickly. With scout and attack I am not so sure how well the concept will work.
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Jul 24, 2023 18:06
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Owling Howl posted:How are they using the Ka-52s? To finish off vehicles that get stuck on minefields
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Jul 24, 2023 18:18
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Paranoea posted:On the Kharkiv front, has anyone seen any good reports on what's going on? I'm seeing on the Finnish OSINT tracker map a note of the Russians successfully crossing a river, so I suppose the 100k troops placed there are getting somewhere? https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 They have been pushing that area on and off continuously for months now. There supposedly is a 4 division RuAF reserve being trained and refitted in that area but no one can say for sure. The likelihood of some major RuAF breakthrough is probably low as the same OSINT/milbloggers have indicated that the Ukrainians have moved reserves with Western vehicles in response. Djarum posted:The US has used ATG missiles or guided bombs from fixed wing aircraft for that capability. Sounds kinda like the 'tanks are dead' argument to me tbh. Wouldn't any drone system intended to replace attack helicopters need the same kind of loitering endurance capability combined with the heavy payloads that modern attack helicopters can carry? I agree that attack helicopters are probably not what Ukraine needs right now given the Russians aren't trying or able to try and push deep into Ukrainian territory with armored columns that would necessitate attack helicopters in large numbers to stop but suggesting that attack helicopters are going extinct seems a bit premature. fatherboxx posted:To finish off vehicles that get stuck on minefields Kofman states that Ukrainian armor has been stopped in instances where the attack never even reached the minefields. RuAF attack helicopters remain a big threat on the defensive.
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Jul 24, 2023 18:24
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MikeC posted:They have been pushing that area on and off continuously for months now. There supposedly is a 4 division RuAF reserve being trained and refitted in that area but no one can say for sure. The likelihood of some major RuAF breakthrough is probably low as the same OSINT/milbloggers have indicated that the Ukrainians have moved reserves with Western vehicles in response. Thanks. Yeah, I remember the Russians raising alarm over Ukrainian troop build-up a while back. I guess there's going to be the usual attack/counter-attack dynamic until something more dramatic worth talking about happens, and then ww hear about it.
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Jul 24, 2023 18:51
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Tuna-Fish posted:Nope. Ka-52 is the best rotary wing platform available to them specifically because it doesn't have to do that, and can fire ATGMs instead. It's lovely compared to an Apache because it has to hover in place when doing that, but it's still a pretty nice capability. Well if they are just using them as floating ATGM launch platforms from 5-10 miles out then I don't think that a very convincing argument in favor of rotary wing aircraft. You don't need platforms like that to be eithwr floating, manned or rotary wing and Ideally they wouldn't be.
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Jul 24, 2023 18:54
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Owling Howl posted:How are they using the Ka-52s? Moon Slayer posted:Basically as floating, unguided rocket artillery. No, not really. They're using them as long-range anti-armor platforms. Their ATGMs have something like an 8-15km range, which is obscenely far for a direct fire system. It's not fire-and-forget, so the aircraft is vulnerable, but Ukraine has relatively few anti-air systems short of Patriot and S-300s--which are busy protecting cities--that can hit aircraft 15km behind the FLOT. Nelson Mandingo posted:I feel that's a very confident statement that overplays the power of artillery. A dozen HIMARS completely stopped the russian army's advance last year. I feel like people keep missing the fact that Russia has adapted. Even bad armies adapt. HIMARS had outsized effects for about 4-6 weeks. It was an important 4-6 weeks, but Russia did several things to reduce their impact:
The dozen HIMARS did not single-handedly stop the Russian offensive. Did it help? Yes, tremendously. But there are no wunderwaffen in this conflict, and pretending otherwise will lead to bad policy.
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Jul 24, 2023 18:55
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MikeC posted:Sounds kinda like the 'tanks are dead' argument to me tbh. Wouldn't any drone system intended to replace attack helicopters need the same kind of loitering endurance capability combined with the heavy payloads that modern attack helicopters can carry? Well theoretically you could make a larger unmanned aircraft that is still much smaller than a manned to do the same mission. Most people don’t realize more than half the weight of any airframe is for stuff to keep the pilot alive. If you eliminate the pilot you can make things in different shapes that are impossible with a pilot, make them smaller/lighter and carry more fuel/ordinance. The role that attack helicopters or CAS is not going away, far from it, but what is used in that role is going to change. It is a very dangerous job, especially in a hot war where the causality rate is astronomical, replacing that with an unmanned option where you can keep those piloting them far away from the front and safe is about as great of an idea as possible. Same with EW/SEAD/DEAD missions. Being able to replace that with an unmanned option is game changing. Who cares if you lose an airframe that costs a fraction of what the pilot does? This is the future of combat really. It’s going to be battle bots in real life.
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Jul 24, 2023 19:13
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It feels pretty obvious future war-tech is going to be overwhelming drone based. Drone tanks/aircraft/micro-craft/boats/subs and swarms supporting each larger platform.
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Jul 24, 2023 19:21
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Djarum posted:Most people don’t realize more than half the weight of any airframe is for stuff to keep the pilot alive. That’s just not true unless you define things like engines, wings, and fuel as being life support for the pilot. An F-16 doesn’t weigh more than a Reaper because of the ejection seat and O2 system. It’s because the engine, alone, of a lightweight supersonic fighter like the F-16 weighs almost as much dry as an entire empty reaper. Loyal wingman designs are lightweight because they’re slow and carry extremely limited payloads compared to a fighter jet.
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Jul 24, 2023 19:22
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Ynglaur posted:On that note, If I could wave a magic wand, I would have the West try to do the following: One thing that stood out to me in the recent batch of support was a huge increase by value of night vision equipment.
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Jul 24, 2023 19:51
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The problem with remotely controlled drones is they're susceptible to EWAR and other measures that target the drone->pilot interface. It's straightforward enough to pre-program a target and route if you have sufficient ISR and accuracy into these drones like the Shahed, but for something like a rotary wing aircraft on a front line providing CAS, by definition there's an active element of reaction and on-the-fly engagement and responding to enemy maneuver that you can't (currently) pre-program into a drone. For fixed wing aircraft/missiles/AI wingman/etc. you could in theory use narrow beam radio/laser/etc. Means of transmitting the data link but that requires line of sight. It's much harder to maintain line of sight to a rotary wing aircraft that has to duck below the tree line, around hills, move along valleys, and otherwise keep itself moving dynamically to stay below the horizon of enemy GBAD guidance systems. Until we have AI of sufficient capability to emulate human pilots, I just don't see an attack helo drone being viable. Unless there's like some secret sauce classified tech that renders EWAR moot behind it or something similarly capable.
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Jul 24, 2023 19:53
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Mederlock posted:The problem with remotely controlled drones is they're susceptible to EWAR and other measures that target the drone->pilot interface. It's straightforward enough to pre-program a target and route if you have sufficient ISR and accuracy into these drones like the Shahed, but for something like a rotary wing aircraft on a front line providing CAS, by definition there's an active element of reaction and on-the-fly engagement and responding to enemy maneuver that you can't (currently) pre-program into a drone. For fixed wing aircraft/missiles/AI wingman/etc. you could in theory use narrow beam radio/laser/etc. Means of transmitting the data link but that requires line of sight. It's much harder to maintain line of sight to a rotary wing aircraft that has to duck below the tree line, around hills, move along valleys, and otherwise keep itself moving dynamically to stay below the horizon of enemy GBAD guidance systems. There are several notable US companies working on stuff like this. They use buzzwords like autonomous, mesh networking, edge computing, etc. EWAR doesn't do much against an autonomous device that only communicates when it wants to vs. need to do be connected at all times.
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Jul 24, 2023 20:04
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Paranoea posted:On the Kharkiv front, has anyone seen any good reports on what's going on? I'm seeing on the Finnish OSINT tracker map a note of the Russians successfully crossing a river, so I suppose the 100k troops placed there are getting somewhere? https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 The Russian bloggers seem to be downplaying what is going on in this area of the front. The report that there are supposedly 110,000 Russians concentrated in that area came from a Ukrainian general and has not been corroborated so far as I know.. The general didn't give any information as to what the disposition of that 110,000 figure was (IE if they were all combat troops or what). 110k would be an extremely high concentration of soldiers relative to what Russia has in other places which would seem odd given that Russia correctly anticipated the location of the Ukrainian offensive in the south and around Bakhmut and the troops they have there are engaged in tough fighting while there's not much going on up north. Most of the analysis I've read seems to agree that if the Russians are moving forward here, it's only because the Ukrainians have denuded this section of the front to support operations going on in other places and the Russians are taking advantage of the situation to set up advantageous bridgeheads and positions for future offensive operations. This may come to an end pretty soon if the Ukrainians are truly sending reinforcements to this section of the front. Most Russian military observers seem to agree that Russia's plan is to wait through whatever is left of the Ukrainian offensive (which they expect to run through August) before Russia contemplates any significant offensive operations of their own. **I will say that whatever has going on there seems to suffer from the same issues of reporting successes before they exist in reality.. so you'll hear claims of Russia advancing several kilometers and taking control of towns, and then 3 days later it will be clarified that while the Ukrainians did retreat out of the area, it is premature to state that the Russians control the area and it is actually more of a "grey zone". So good luck interpreting what's going on there with any degree of accuracy. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Jul 24, 2023 |
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Jul 24, 2023 20:12
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Who was ready for Russian MIC to use child labor? https://zona.media/news/2023/07/24/alabuga quote:Underage students of the Alabuga Polytechnic college in Tatarstan's Yelabuga are massively involved in the assembly of Shahed drones and punished for refusing to work. This is stated in a joint investigation of the publication "Protocol" and YouTube channel "RZVRT". jesus loving christ quote:Journalists say that the management of the special economic zone is recruiting underage female students from African countries. For this purpose, Alabuga has developed a special recruiting scheme using the Tinder and Badoo dating apps: students are given premium accounts, and Shagivaleyev has written special "scripts" for them to communicate.
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Jul 24, 2023 20:16
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fatherboxx posted:To finish off vehicles that get stuck on minefields That's what they do in the video, but IIRC they claimed that the situation was created because the helicopter started by destroying the minesweeper vehicles at the front of the line.
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Jul 24, 2023 20:40
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Tuna-Fish posted:That's what they do in the video, but IIRC they claimed that the situation was created because the helicopter started by destroying the minesweeper vehicles at the front of the line. There are also videos pretty much daily of Ka-52s sitting back and plonking tanks and other armoured vehicles, both moving and stationary.
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Jul 24, 2023 21:07
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Mederlock posted:The problem with remotely controlled drones is they're susceptible to EWAR and other measures that target the drone->pilot interface. It's straightforward enough to pre-program a target and route if you have sufficient ISR and accuracy into these drones like the Shahed, but for something like a rotary wing aircraft on a front line providing CAS, by definition there's an active element of reaction and on-the-fly engagement and responding to enemy maneuver that you can't (currently) pre-program into a drone. For fixed wing aircraft/missiles/AI wingman/etc. you could in theory use narrow beam radio/laser/etc. Means of transmitting the data link but that requires line of sight. It's much harder to maintain line of sight to a rotary wing aircraft that has to duck below the tree line, around hills, move along valleys, and otherwise keep itself moving dynamically to stay below the horizon of enemy GBAD guidance systems. I agree that attack helicopters provide capabilities that drones can't currently replace but the role of an attack helicopter isn't to hang out 10 miles behind the lines and launch ATGMs at out-of-sight laser designated targets. It's fine that they can do that but you don't need an attack helicopter to provide that service. EWAR can disrupt communications to manned helicopters and drones equally well. If the helicopters is merely used as a platform somewhere in the back to launch a missile when it receives a command to do so then it would be as vulnerable to EWAR as a drone.
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Jul 24, 2023 21:12
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Drone helicopters do exist, so clearly the defense industry does think they will become a thing at some point.
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Jul 24, 2023 21:23
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moon demon posted:There are several notable US companies working on stuff like this. They use buzzwords like autonomous, mesh networking, edge computing, etc. EWAR doesn't do much against an autonomous device that only communicates when it wants to vs. need to do be connected at all times. I'm not sure if I want real Hunter-Killers to start automatically selecting targets, but pre-programming instructions if connection breaks should work (either return home, or proceed to attack pre-selected target).
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Jul 24, 2023 21:25
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lilljonas posted:Also Ukraine's leadership has repeatedly pointed out that it has been harder than expected and that the initial plan didn't work out as they hoped. This is a good point. It seems to me a staggered offensive would reduce the potential for Russians to mine large swathes of land, and by this time we could have had UAF tanks roaming eastward unmitigated.
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Jul 24, 2023 21:26
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fatherboxx posted:Who was ready for Russian MIC to use child labor? For my own sanity I’m going to say that I don’t believe this until I see it reported by a major outlet but it probably happened because 2020 never ends 
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Jul 24, 2023 21:29
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fatherboxx posted:Who was ready for Russian MIC to use child labor? That is pretty dire. I wonder if its a sign of demographic issues - the US also had a spate of child labor legalization laws being forced through recently, so it seems like there's a demand for unskilled labor that's not being filled otherwise.
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Jul 24, 2023 21:34
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We’re looking to do a gang tag in the GBS thread for people who donate to an Ukraine based charity. Does anyone have the vetted charities list?
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Jul 24, 2023 22:01
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fatherboxx posted:Who was ready for Russian MIC to use child labor? Yeah but did anyone involved have a black sun tattoo?
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Jul 24, 2023 22:48
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Toxic Mental posted:We’re looking to do a gang tag in the GBS thread for people who donate to an Ukraine based charity. Does anyone have the vetted charities list? Hmm, I'm assuming you don't mean the list in the older D&D donation thread? Which is at https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3994478 Zelenskyy says Ukraine is planning to start negotiations on EU membership this year: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1683553025263017984 Also in a brief interview (I think it was on CNN), Ukraine's defence minister said he predicts Ukraine might win the war and join NATO by next summer. That feels overly optimistic to me though
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Jul 24, 2023 23:12
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fatherboxx posted:Who was ready for Russian MIC to use child labor? I keep telling myself not to be shocked by anything Russia does, but uh, that sure is something.
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Jul 24, 2023 23:19
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jaete posted:Also in a brief interview (I think it was on CNN), Ukraine's defence minister said he predicts Ukraine might win the war and join NATO by next summer. That feels overly optimistic to me though Probably, but at the same time winning the war might not have to come down to retaking the land militarily, as opposed to just hanging on while the authoritarian apparatus built around putin starts creaking and groaning like a carbon fiber submersible
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Jul 25, 2023 02:43
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fatherboxx posted:Who was ready for Russian MIC to use child labor? Man I saw rumors going around about that a while ago and had really hoped that was just some wartime rumors.
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Jul 25, 2023 04:44
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https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-175-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine IAEA reports of antipersonnel mines on the periphery of the ZPP, nothing about any rooftop explosives.
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Jul 25, 2023 08:13
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fatherboxx posted:https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-175-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine They were denied access to the roofs though.
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Jul 25, 2023 08:27
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