(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
Starsfan posted:He does reference 5 different analysis he has completed, that thread is meant to be a summary of his conclusions. It's possible that if you could track down his other work that constituted the actual analysis you would find examples of the like you are expecting. I guess so I'm not seen as advocating for this person I will advise that I am not recommending you browse his twitter lol. I mean, to give you the benefit of the doubt, if he has any analysis that actually involves pointing at pictures Oryx uses and goes "these are clearly the same tank/photoshopped/whatever" you didn't link to them, and I have little interest in going through the guy's twitter account looking for them. The tweets you did link seem to use completely spurious reasoning, though.
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 19:08 |
|
|
You guys are missing the forest for the trees. This milblogger is really just restating OSINT losses and giving his take on it, that all. The fact that he is an RU poster isn't significant in and of itself unless it turns out he is augmenting OSINT data with classified data that he is not sharing. Regardless of Oryx's reliability or impartiality, we know the Ukrainians are specifically going after these systems and are expending infantry to force the Russians to expose these targets. Well documented for weeks from both sides. It is conclusions like "unsustainable" or "really bad news" that is suspect because no one has enough information to actually make such claims. Does this Ru blogger have or is presenting detailed equipment reserve data? No? Then how is that conclusion being sustained? If and when the losses to these systems become unsustainable, we will see the effects on the ground and it isn't appearing. Ex the Ukrainians apparently tried to resume armored night attacks a few days ago in Robotyne and were sent back with the same results. So even if losses to Ru attack helicopters and artillery are heavy, it isn't yet enough to move the needle on the ground. When if ever it will reach that point? Who knows. Or maybe the Russians adapt again and finally give up the buffer zone and the Ukrainians spend another 2 months trying to solve the first defense line. Or maybe they have nothing left after all and Mariuopol is retake by September. No one can say right now. Talking about pedos challenging Oryx's reliability won't help us either way in this regard.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:08
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:The war has been going on for 500 days now, I was relating that I had seen evidence which questioned the veracity of the Oryx analysis (which all of you initially seemed open to) and then when asked to provide an example unfortunately I picked a bad one it seems. I can't recall at this point where that information was posted or even when to be honest. Starsfan posted:I've observed evidence and arguments that Oryx has been shown to accept photoshopped images, multiples of the same equipment being destroyed from different angles (and sometimes not from different angles) photos of Ukrainian equipment which is claimed to be Russian . Their verification process appears to have serious shortfalls. Do you have any evidence that you can show?
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:10
|
|
|
Chalks posted:But your position on this is still that it's unreliable? Why? Largely because it appears not to align with the reports we get / outcomes of these engagements on the ground. We are presented with evidence that Ukraine is decapitating the artillery arm of the Russian army, reports from Ukrainian sources that they actually have more "tubes" in some areas of the front now (which would seem logical given what is being claimed by the Ukrainian focus and success in these counter-battery operations and the attrition of Russian equipment in the area) but then at the same time we hear other Ukrainian sources that state that they are still being out-gunned by a wide margin and the Russian artillery is still the largest problem that they face in moving forward. There appears to be some dissonance in the information we are receiving from Ukrainian sources when it comes to the question of the status of the Russian artillery is and whether the Ukrainians efforts to reduce the Russian artillery advantage are bearing fruits or not. That would be the reason why I am disinclined to trust the Oryx reports which seem absolutely magnificent for Ukraine at face value and make it seem almost inconceivable that the Russians could be standing and fighting in these circumstances. MikeC posted:If and when the losses to these systems become unsustainable, we will see the effects on the ground and it isn't appearing. Ex the Ukrainians apparently tried to resume armored night attacks a few days ago in Robotyne and were sent back with the same results. So even if losses to Ru attack helicopters and artillery are heavy, it isn't yet enough to move the needle on the ground. When if ever it will reach that point? Who knows. Or maybe the Russians adapt again and finally give up the buffer zone and the Ukrainians spend another 2 months trying to solve the first defense line. Or maybe they have nothing left after all and Mariuopol is retake by September. This is basically what I was trying to convey earlier as to my view of how observers of this war should digest information. What is being claimed as part of a consistent trend is significant enough that it should produce a result which is impossible to deny for even the worst pro Russian tankie. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Jul 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:13
|
|
|
The fact is that nobody knows the true depths of Russian reserves, including the Russians
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:15
|
|
|
US intelligence believes Iranian drone factory in Russia to be operational early next year: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/25/politics/us-russia-iran-drones/index.html If Odessa remains the under threat, I want to see some speed boats with antiaircraft guns strapped on the back (would not be surprised if those are fielded already).
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:22
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:The fact is that nobody knows the true depths of Russian reserves, including the Russians Luckily we live in 2023 and there is a Youtuber doing exactly that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVqHY5hpzv8 Of course, some of the satellite images are relatively old and bad quality. Luckily we live in 2023 and another Youtuber (Perun) has apparently ordered some satellite overflies in order to get newer, better pictures of some of those depots, so we should get better numbers "soon". DTurtle fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Jul 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:23
|
|
|
DTurtle posted:Well not completely unknowable. Many of their depots are above ground, without roofs and tarps. So it would be theoretically possible to look at satellite images from before and more recent times in order to see what is happening. This post made me realize that reality has turned into a sci-fi novel, but stupider.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:28
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:Largely because it appears not to align with the reports we get / outcomes of these engagements on the ground. We are presented with evidence that Ukraine is decapitating the artillery arm of the Russian army, reports from Ukrainian sources that they actually have more "tubes" in some areas of the front now (which would seem logical given what is being claimed by the Ukrainian focus and success in these counter-battery operations and the attrition of Russian equipment in the area) but then at the same time we hear other Ukrainian sources that state that they are still being out-gunned by a wide margin and the Russian artillery is still the largest problem that they face in moving forward. There appears to be some dissonance in the information we are receiving from Ukrainian sources when it comes to the question of the status of the Russian artillery is and whether the Ukrainians efforts to reduce the Russian artillery advantage are bearing fruits or not. That would be the reason why I am disinclined to trust the Oryx reports which seem absolutely magnificent for Ukraine at face value and make it seem almost inconceivable that the Russians could be standing and fighting in these circumstances. To be clear, on one hand you have literal photographs of losses being meticulously reviewed and analysed to identify duplications. On the other hand, you have "reports" and what I can only assume is your own personal conclusions about what the battlefield outcomes should be for a given loss rate. You look at this and think.... mmmm, one of these things is wrong.... which could it be.... I think it's the photographs. The photographs are wrong.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:28
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Here's a translation of a pro-Russian milblogger's assessment of the current situation: Given that Oryx uses photographic evidence to tally equipment lost I am surprised it would show artillery lost based along the Russian defensive lines, if only because artillery should be far enough away from the front that it is hard to get evidence of. Is this lost equipment evidence due to - Drone footage of successful arty/missile strikes against Russian artillery? - Ukrainian launching probing attacks that destroys the artillery and document it that way? - Russians just photographing their own destroyed equipment and leaking it online? I think I may be missing a possibility here so thought I'd ask.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:29
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:We are presented with evidence that Ukraine is decapitating the artillery arm of the Russian army, reports from Ukrainian sources officers that they actually have more "tubes" in some areas of the front now (which would seem logical given what is being claimed by the Ukrainian focus and success in these counter-battery operations and the attrition of Russian equipment in the area) but then at the same time we hear other Ukrainian sources that state that they are still being out-gunned by a wide margin and the Russian artillery is still the largest problem that they face in moving forward. Have you seen Ukrainian sources specifically saying they are outgunned in the same area where other reports claim Ukraine is starting to reach local artillery superiority, or are you just looking at reports from different areas of the 1000km front and seeing a contradiction? Starsfan posted:There appears to be some dissonance in the information we are receiving from Ukrainian sources when it comes to the question of the status of the Russian artillery is and whether the Ukrainians efforts to reduce the Russian artillery advantage are bearing fruits or not. That would be the reason why I am disinclined to trust the Oryx reports which seem absolutely magnificent for Ukraine at face value and make it seem almost inconceivable that the Russians could be standing and fighting in these circumstances. Oryx has not claimed to confirm kills on even a quarter of Russia's known active artillery and rocket launchers, let alone several times as many in storage. Claims about Ukraine eroding Russia's artillery superiority are based more on the strategic and tactical logistical picture rather than sheer number of launchers destroyed, let alone the number of launchers with visual confirmation posted (which logically is going to be proportionately lower than it is for e.g. armor, since artillery sits further behind the lines.) You can be skeptical about claims that Ukraine is making progress in the artillery war based on lack of movement on the ground, but that has nothing to do with Oryx's equipment counts.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:30
|
|
|
DTurtle posted:Well not completely unknowable. Many of their depots are above ground, without roofs and tarps. So it would be theoretically possible to look at satellite images from before and more recent times in order to see what is happening. Yeah, we can see their depots, but: - how much of the stuff in there works? How much labor and resources would the inoperable equipment take to activate? How can you tell superficial damage from hollowed out husks on satellite imagery? - if they've removed let's say 20% of their mothballed gear, does it mean they are 20% through their stocks ? Or have they been activating their first rate reserves first and perhaps the remaining 80% is rusted scrap metal? - how much can they manufacture to repair the equipment that doesn't work? How much has been looted and sold off in the past 30 years?
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:31
|
|
|
DTurtle posted:You made very specific accusations: That Oryx is unreliable as a source for providing a floor of losses, because they are counting photoshopped images, single losses multiple times, and counting Ukrainian losses as Russian: I don't have anything further to provide at this time. I did view evidence of comparisons of photographs with links to the Oryx site for reference which seemed compelling to me at the time, but I can not locate that analysis now. I'll retract my statement that I have specific knowledge or awareness of instances where Oryx has accepted manipulated or inaccurate data, which was likely irresponsible for me to make in the first place given the circumstances.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:31
|
|
|
Donkringel posted:Am I to understand that the artillery lost map is based on Oryx reporting? No, in this case the artillery loss map is from GeoConfirmed which is an independent source from Oryx (despite the derail about the reliability of Oryx's data that this post caused) They specifically only list losses when they have been geo-located and all their markers have both the images and geo-location evidence. This means the loss rates reported by GeoConfirmed are lower than those in the Oryx data. Almost all the footage is from spotter drones that Ukraine use to correct their counterbattery fire. Because Ukraine has much more accurate munitions, but also far fewer, spotter drones are an important part of their arsenal. As mentioned in the pro-Russian blog, Ukrainian high accuracy artillery such as Excalibur can outrange Russian artillery by ten of kilometres or more. Here's an example of the type of geolocated evidence: https://twitter.com/blinzka/status/1683199210714177537 As you can see from the source footage, it to shows 4 locations being hit, but only one artillery piece is clearly visible as destroyed in the footage, thus only one confirmation on the map. This is why Ukraine regularly reports 30+ artillery pieces destroyed per day, but the evidence based counts only go up by a few! Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Jul 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:36
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:This is basically what I was trying to convey earlier as to my view of how observers of this war should digest information. What is being claimed as part of a consistent trend is significant enough that it should produce a result which is impossible to deny for even the worst pro Russian tankie. why, after this exchange, do you think you should be giving instead of receiving advice on how to digest information?
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:38
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:Largely because it appears not to align with the reports we get / outcomes of these engagements on the ground. We are presented with evidence that Ukraine is decapitating the artillery arm of the Russian army, reports from Ukrainian sources that they actually have more "tubes" in some areas of the front now (which would seem logical given what is being claimed by the Ukrainian focus and success in these counter-battery operations and the attrition of Russian equipment in the area) but then at the same time we hear other Ukrainian sources that state that they are still being out-gunned by a wide margin and the Russian artillery is still the largest problem that they face in moving forward. There appears to be some dissonance in the information we are receiving from Ukrainian sources when it comes to the question of the status of the Russian artillery is and whether the Ukrainians efforts to reduce the Russian artillery advantage are bearing fruits or not. That would be the reason why I am disinclined to trust the Oryx reports which seem absolutely magnificent for Ukraine at face value and make it seem almost inconceivable that the Russians could be standing and fighting in these circumstances. The front is over a thousand kilometres long, and the Ukraine's offensive (and Russia's counteroffensives) are months old, it's not surprising that there are differing reports from differing sources. It would be weirder if reports were consistent across every part of the war. It would be weirder if reports were consistent imo. Also, there's a long distance between "Ukraine have started to gain advantages in some areas" and "Russia is broadly and imminently hosed." It's a peer war, Russian forces are well dug in, and no-one is suggesting Russia is actually out of men or weapons even if they're currently losing them faster. These small advantages they're claiming are promising, but they're hardly enough for Ukraine to force the massive triumphs you seem to be expecting.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:38
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:Ukraine has actually been at this point before (troops inside the town of Klischiivka) a couple weeks ago, they got counter attacked and pushed back into their starting point in the fields to the north / west. I would caution to wait and see how things develop before drawing any conclusions. Do you have any evidence of this? I'm following pretty closely and would have missed this entirely. I know people had gotten ahead of themselves and claimed to have been on the outskirts a couple weeks ago but Ukraine has just finished capturing the heights a few days ago.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:40
|
|
|
Chalks posted:No, in this case the artillery loss map is from GeoConfirmed which is an independent source from Oryx (despite the derail about the reliability of Oryx's data that this post caused) Was going to respond but was too slow. I think Geoconfirmed is very good but I would still add that even footage of strikes can be hard to use to confirm destruction - because you don't know if the equipment was somehow recoverable in the future. Edit: though usually less of a problem with artillery vs tanks WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Jul 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:40
|
|
|
Thanks for the breakdown and the example!
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:44
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:This is basically what I was trying to convey earlier as to my view of how observers of this war should digest information. What is being claimed as part of a consistent trend is significant enough that it should produce a result which is impossible to deny for even the worst pro Russian tankie. Were you attempting to convey that we shouldn't blindly accept a source by blindly accepting the first source you found as an example of what not to do? Also, didn't this conversation kick off with a super pro-Russian tankie saying he finds it impossible to deny the result in question that you were trying to debunk with Armchair Warlord?
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:48
|
|
|
So, let's say that Ukraine is able to significantly deplete Russia's stocks of viable artillery within the next few years. What would be the strategic outcome of that? I imagine that it's much easier to punch through defensive lines if you've got an artillery advantage.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:49
|
|
|
I have observed evidence that if Ukraine keeps up these shenanigans, Russia will finally decide to get serious and deploy their second, actually good army that they've been holding back out of compassion. No I will not share what this evidence is, it was shared with me by others.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:54
|
|
|
Bashez posted:Do you have any evidence of this? I'm following pretty closely and would have missed this entirely. I know people had gotten ahead of themselves and claimed to have been on the outskirts a couple weeks ago but Ukraine has just finished capturing the heights a few days ago. In and around the end of June and the first week of July there were various reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs in the area of Klischiivka. Before the Chechens were confirmed to be transferring to the area to reinforce the Russians there. Russian sources at the time did acknowledge the presence of Ukrainian soldiers inside the urban area of Klischiivka and that control of the city was contested at one point but subsequent Russian counter attacks had regained control of the heights around Klischiivka which has now led into this most recent push by Ukraine. https://bnn.network/conflict-defenc...ian-aggression/ This was what I was recalling, but I will acknowledge that it's difficult to ascertain what these sources are talking about when it comes to the actual geographic location where the fighting is purportedly taking place.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 21:58
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:In and around the end of June and the first week of July there were various reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs in the area of Klischiivka. Before the Chechens were confirmed to be transferring to the area to reinforce the Russians there. Russian sources at the time did acknowledge the presence of Ukrainian soldiers inside the urban area of Klischiivka and that control of the city was contested at one point but subsequent Russian counter attacks had regained control of the heights around Klischiivka which has now led into this most recent push by Ukraine. Don't forget to doublecheck if it is the right area. This is no slam on you, just bringing up the amusing fact that Ukraine loves having like fifty towns in a 100 km radius all named the same thing, and a lot of reporters of all stripes get things confused as a result.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 22:00
|
|
|
Haystack posted:So, let's say that Ukraine is able to significantly deplete Russia's stocks of viable artillery within the next few years. What would be the strategic outcome of that? I imagine that it's much easier to punch through defensive lines if you've got an artillery advantage. I think it's hard to tell because it's not like Ukraine has infinite resources. This war has shown how badly the stockpiles and productive capacities of many western countries had gotten too. I do think it would really degrade Russia's ability to go on the offensive and I imagine that the material sacrifices Russia would have to make to keep its military strength up would degrade its domestic stability, but it's not like Russia is teeming with alternatives to the current status quo. Plus, the thing with despotic regimes is that they can last beyond any point where accountability usually kicks in. All you need to do is keep the domestic population under your boot. You also have to wonder if political developments in the West will degrade the sanctions regime that has helped hobble Russia's ability to replenish its supplies of more advanced weapons. Ukraine has really benefitted from a sanctions regime that has been much stricter than one would expect from a prominent petroleum producer like Russia. There are way too many different factors to weigh when thinking about how different developments would affect the military situation. A "few years" is still a long time.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 22:02
|
|
|
Kchama posted:Don't forget to doublecheck if it is the right area. This is no slam on you, just bringing up the amusing fact that Ukraine loves having like fifty towns in a 100 km radius all named the same thing, and a lot of reporters of all stripes get things confused as a result. I know that because I often try to enter one of these names into google to see what location they are talking about and then I get taken to a town in west Ukraine hundreds of km away from any front. Rybar acknowledged claims of Ukrainian presence in the Klischiivka south of Bakhmut on July 5th, but stated that as of that date Russia had full control of the town. A few days later they were claiming that Russia had re-taken the high ground to the west and north of the town.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 22:05
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Yeah, we can see their depots, but: Some of the depots are almost untouched (or even slightly increased), but others have almost been emptied. The 94th Arsenal had more than 1400 towed artillery pieces befire the war - now there only 159 left. In total they counted 12345 towed artillery pieces visible before the war, 7500 now and 5093 self-propelled artillery pieces before the war and 4408 now. Again, as mentioned many of those left have been obviously moved and parked again much more haphazardly - draw your own conclusion about what that might mean. Starsfan posted:I don't have anything further to provide at this time. I did view evidence of comparisons of photographs with links to the Oryx site for reference which seemed compelling to me at the time, but I can not locate that analysis now. I'll retract my statement that I have specific knowledge or awareness of instances where Oryx has accepted manipulated or inaccurate data, which was likely irresponsible for me to make in the first place given the circumstances.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 22:32
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Here's a translation of a pro-Russian milblogger's assessment of the current situation: Bulba of Thrones is not a milblogger, he is a nazi twink couch warrior that is constantly terrified of muslims and his doomerism is laughed at by everyone on Russian telegram Armchair copelord is even worse though, that attempt to connect Mediazona counts with Oryx is laughable at the methology level. Mediazona counts based on data through social media obituaries where not every post confirms occupation of the deceased and the notary registry data where there is no data on occupation at all. Furthermore not every destroyed tank results in crew getting killed, if you take every destroyed tank and x3 it to get crew casualty number, you would get a big but mostly baseless number. Thats how Ukrainian military gets their silly "ENEMY PERSONNEL LIQUIDATED" numbers.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 22:56
|
|
|
Armchair Warlord might think Ukraine is doing very poorly but I counter with my own twitter account where I scream at everyone who disputes my account that Ukraine is going to win tomorrow, and get suspended because I tried to send glitter bombs to the fact checkers who explained that all my war maps are actually from Attack on Titan and the Halo RTS series
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 23:04
|
|
|
Oryx rules Armchair Warlord drools
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 23:34
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:It says his analysis is based on western OSINT info, aka Oryx lol oryx numbers and lostarmour numbers are very close, like last time I checked a week ago, the number of bradleys lost was within 1 between the two lists. previously they've been within 5-10% regardless of side of losses, provided we're talking about the categories of losses LA actually publicly tracks. if you have any evidence of Oryx posting duplicates or otherwise inflating the numbers, by all means post them, but even z osint seems to be coming to a similar count at this point. the data is all public and you can go through categories yourself if you want to dispute them. hell if you do find one they'll just remove it, hence why it's a pretty good list. Starsfan posted:I don't have time to review the photographic evidence of thousands of images on Oryx, cross reference them to eachother and against other sources and make conclusions on the accuracy of the estimated losses. you can pick one of the smaller categories with like 30 entries if you want an easier time taking a look for yourself e: lmfao armchair warlord of all sources Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Jul 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 23:36
|
|
|
also if you want to check on just the tanks posted on oryx without actually crossreferencing the list with russian osint lists, pick one of the less common models of tanks and go through it looking for duplicates. It doesn't take long at allStarsfan posted:I don't have anything further to provide at this time. I did view evidence of comparisons of photographs with links to the Oryx site for reference which seemed compelling to me at the time, but I can not locate that analysis now. I'll retract my statement that I have specific knowledge or awareness of instances where Oryx has accepted manipulated or inaccurate data, which was likely irresponsible for me to make in the first place given the circumstances. just to be clear I'm not suggesting you go through the categories to own u or something, I'm suggesting it because it's legitimately interesting and probably the one big strength of osint poo poo is that you can actually just doublecheck it yourself. Granted checking it past a certain level does require actually being able to definitively ID specific models/upgrade packages of tanks, but you can at least just look at the data and rule out whether there's anything majorly manipulative going on. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Jul 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 23:43
|
|
|
If there were systemic issues with the numbers Oryx et al come up with it ought to be trivially easy to demonstrate that and even if the MAINSTREAM MEDIA colluded to not publish that story there are plenty of other channels that would very much like to run it. So anyone who thinks it's bogus just needs to put in the work and you'll have your 15 minutes in the sun. Well, you'd be briefly known in online OSINT circles but surely no other prize can compare in splendor.
|
|
#
?
Jul 25, 2023 23:49
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:If there were systemic issues with the numbers Oryx et al come up with it ought to be trivially easy to demonstrate that and even if the MAINSTREAM MEDIA colluded to not publish that story there are plenty of other channels that would very much like to run it. Yeah, it would be gleefully plastered all over the Grayzone and friends. But as a further example, there are plenty of other accounts double-checking Oryx. https://twitter.com/ArchieIrving2/status/1683220551157022721?s=20
|
|
#
?
Jul 26, 2023 00:26
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ArchieIrving2/status/1678433327194226697?s=20 When people do put in the work to validate Oryx's counts instead of bloviating endlessly, it ends up mostly validating their counts.
|
|
#
?
Jul 26, 2023 00:46
|
|
|
Chalks posted:The fact that a pro-Russian mil blogger believes the Oryx numbers is actually pretty significant (it's actually a different independant source, but regardless, they all agree). This is a blogger that would like nothing more than to find reasons to make Russia look good, they have access to all the sources they could possibly need to undermine it, and yet they believe them. Bulba of Thrones is dumber than a bag of hammers, and his only desire is endless whinging, no matter what. He's still convinced Lukashenko is secretly a Belarusian nationalist one step away from legalising hunting Russians for sport, and it's a great shame on Russia that Putin supports him. Making Russia look good is not even on his todo list, he's only interested in being miserable. He also basically just reposted analysis by a different Russian mil blogger, Moscow Calling. That guy was in DNR's rebel army in 2014, but became disillusioned and now opposes Putin's war out of concern for 'the people of free Donbass' that he fought for. So his analysis is also not exactly biased in Russia's favour.
|
|
#
?
Jul 26, 2023 01:07
|
|
|
Starsfan posted:I don't have anything further to provide at this time. I did view evidence of comparisons of photographs with links to the Oryx site for reference which seemed compelling to me at the time, but I can not locate that analysis now. I'll retract my statement that I have specific knowledge or awareness of instances where Oryx has accepted manipulated or inaccurate data, which was likely irresponsible for me to make in the first place given the circumstances. Please note that saying something you're not actually sure of as if you know it to be true is a form of bad faith and can damage discussion. But since you admitted your mistake and backed down I won't be probating you this time.
|
|
#
?
Jul 26, 2023 06:44
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:Bulba of Thrones is dumber than a bag of hammers, and his only desire is endless whinging, no matter what. He's still convinced Lukashenko is secretly a Belarusian nationalist one step away from legalising hunting Russians for sport, and it's a great shame on Russia that Putin supports him. Making Russia look good is not even on his todo list, he's only interested in being miserable. He also basically just reposted analysis by a different Russian mil blogger, Moscow Calling. That guy was in DNR's rebel army in 2014, but became disillusioned and now opposes Putin's war out of concern for 'the people of free Donbass' that he fought for. So his analysis is also not exactly biased in Russia's favour. Thank you for the context, perhaps a less significant post then. A lot of noise today about major assaults in the south, but little hard evidence that I can see. Still, we might be about to see the direct effects of the artillery suppression strategy.
|
|
#
?
Jul 26, 2023 10:02
|
|
|
More pessimistic news https://www.zeit.de/news/2023-07/26...w.google.com%2F quote:Brigadier General Christian Freuding sees the Ukrainian armed forces facing further heavy fighting in their counter-offensive. "You only have to look at the map and there we have a balance of power of about one to one. And a defense prepared for nine months with strong terrain reinforcements and mine barriers prepared for half a year. That is reality, »said the head of the planning staff in the Ministry of Defense of the German Press Agency in Berlin.
|
|
#
?
Jul 26, 2023 10:16
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 19:08 |
|
|
Shoigu is visiting North Korea so Russia is probably looking to buy some hardware.
|
|
#
?
Jul 26, 2023 10:22
|
|