(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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fatherboxx posted:More pessimistic news Someone should tell him that you can't just look at a map to tell how a counter-offensive is going
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Jul 26, 2023 10:28
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Owling Howl posted:Shoigu is visiting North Korea so Russia is probably looking to buy some hardware. Shopping for top quality stuff there.
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Jul 26, 2023 12:21
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fatherboxx posted:More pessimistic news Oh, I didn't know we were coordinating so closely with the Ukrainian military. We already sent Nebelgranaten as emergency measure to support mine clearing opearations under fire. All in all, fairly positive news!
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Jul 26, 2023 12:43
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FuturePastNow posted:Shopping for top quality stuff there. To be honest I'd expect dumb shells the single thing that NK military maintain in sufficient quantity, knowing how many artillery pieces are permanently ready to vaporize Seoul. Though we have not seen any confirmation on NK supplies to Russians since they were first rumoured last year. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 13:09 on Jul 26, 2023 |
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Jul 26, 2023 12:55
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North Korea indeed has an enormous quantity of artillery and artillery ammunition. It's a very Soviet army in that regard.
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Jul 26, 2023 13:25
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Some footage of fighting on the southern front. CW: vehicles and the cameraman firing downrange but no enemy seen; https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1684219185700691968
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Jul 26, 2023 16:17
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Moon Slayer posted:Some footage of fighting on the southern front. CW: vehicles and the cameraman firing downrange but no enemy seen; That's a traditional Ukrainian folk song, you philistine. https://youtu.be/hfjHJneVonE
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Jul 26, 2023 16:26
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Apparently some big movements happening right now anyone got reliable links?
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Jul 26, 2023 18:55
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Apparently some big movements happening right now anyone got reliable links? I suspect Ukraine is requesting an info embargo for a while. Lots of normally current sites are not updating.
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Jul 26, 2023 18:57
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Apparently some big movements happening right now anyone got reliable links? Lots of chatter, including some by reliable accounts, and Russians freaking out but no footage or even any agreement about the specifics. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1684204278653636608 https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1684151903079260161 In a day or so we'll know if this is anything significant. Also this is interesting https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1684266290502828062 Might be poor reporting, part of the confusion or an intentional smoke screen to distract from something bad happening. Chalks fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Jul 26, 2023 |
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Jul 26, 2023 19:13
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https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1684209211649974273 Rob Lee and Michael Koffman posted that it looks like Ukraine's 10th Corps--one of the Western-trained and -equipped groups of brigades--is being committed. Ukraine's 9th Corps seemed to have been the lead operational unit in the offensive in the south. While I would expect the original objective was to get to the first defensive line--which Ukraine is still well short of in most places--Ukraine may be making a bet that Russia doesn't have enough mobile reserves to prevent a breach of the attritional zone in the front. It's also possible (though I'm conjecturing here) that Russia's first (and latter) defensive lines are under-manned due to them committing reserves to fights in the attritional zone. Russia does not seem to have conducted a defense-in-depth in terms of force employment, which is odd considering they certainly did in terms of terrain employment.
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Jul 26, 2023 19:38
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Ynglaur posted:
They built to their doctrine but cant man to their doctrine.
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Jul 26, 2023 19:53
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I’m assuming this would be a good time with the relative advantage in night vision? It’s sundown in Kyiv as I type this, or so sayeth a quick search.
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Jul 26, 2023 19:54
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Zhanism posted:They built to their doctrine but cant man to their doctrine. I'm not sure that's true. I think they could, at least before the Ukrainian offensive. But if they've been feeding units into the attrition zone to avoid losing any territory, they may not be able to do so now. It remains to be seen, though.
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Jul 26, 2023 19:56
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Ynglaur posted:I'm not sure that's true. I think they could, at least before the Ukrainian offensive. But if they've been feeding units into the attrition zone to avoid losing any territory, they may not be able to do so now. It remains to be seen, though. It got lost in the hullabaloo around the wagner uprising, but Russian accounts were emphasizing that Russia was taking major losses of both men and materiel fighting off the Ukrainian offensive in June and the prevailing attitude even then was that the situation wasn't sustainable and something would eventually give. In any event, the situation will be much clearer in a week.
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Jul 26, 2023 20:15
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It sounds like AFU found their weak point in the Russian line and are going for it. E: if any of this is actually true, of course
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Jul 26, 2023 20:27
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Xiahou Dun posted:I’m assuming this would be a good time with the relative advantage in night vision? It’s sundown in Kyiv as I type this, or so sayeth a quick search. I haven't been to Ukraine but have been to Black Sea, and I recall the sun set every night? But that was years ago.
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Jul 26, 2023 20:32
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Enjoy posted:Someone should tell him that you can't just look at a map to tell how a counter-offensive is going I think he knows, because he's not claiming the counter-offensive is over because line moves slow.
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Jul 26, 2023 20:35
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Ok well, here's the most convincing report so far that something is happening in the south https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/26/world/russia-ukraine-news quote:The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve.
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Jul 26, 2023 21:04
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Enjoy posted:Someone should tell him that you can't just look at a map to tell how a counter-offensive is going It's great that you're trying to learn and apply the various media/data consumption lessons this thread has offered you, but you still need a bit of practice. Grape fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Jul 27, 2023 |
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Jul 26, 2023 22:55
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https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1683927048480518148 https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1684222917423374336 Boris Kagarlitsky, one the most respected modern Russian marxists (i.e. not braindead from too much Stalin particles in the air of discourse) was arrested today on sham charges of "justifying terrorism". Kagarlistky, despite having a very principled anti-war position, stayed in Russia and has been pretty important for providing platform for various voices from many sides of political spectrum - leftists, liberals, libertarians (I enjoyed his channel a lot even while I sorta written him off in some past years for various dumb takes) - and he tried very hard to be cautious with words, but in the end it did not help. To deliberately complicate things, he was taken from Moscow to Komi, so that his lawyer wouldn't even be able to attend the first hearing. Also maybe someone from prosecution office thought it was hillarious based on the name. He had his share of encounters against the state back in 1982 when Soviet Union was not very encouraging of young socialists to have ideas not in line with the party.
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Jul 26, 2023 23:17
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Moon Slayer posted:It sounds like AFU found their weak point in the Russian line and are going for it. Its true. Happened at the start of the week and has been reported on by both sides since early Tuesday. Attacks with a significant armored vehicle count resumed after those were canceled around 2 weeks in. Just have no idea how successful they are. Even if they do finally get past Robotyne, that is just step 1. Kofman last said that the Ukrainians still belive Russian operation reserves have not yet been committed so while it would be a big first step, even after Robotyne, they are really just getting off the start line.
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Jul 27, 2023 00:00
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Russians using ammunition from Myanmar? Didn't see that one coming. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1684251307689771011#m
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Jul 27, 2023 01:03
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I'm kind of surprised they're committing major forces right now. I felt like the status quo was pretty favorable to Ukraine with how effective their counter battery has been. When will the land turn to poo poo? I thought I'd read it would be okay into October. Bashez fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Jul 27, 2023 |
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Jul 27, 2023 01:05
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Bashez posted:I'm kind of surprised they're committing major forces right now. I felt like the status quo was pretty favorable to Ukraine with how effective their counter battery has been. Presumably, they judged that the situation at the front to now be favorable enough to continue. We lack a lot of the information necessary to judge this. But still, even if your counterbattery fire is very effective right now and you like the exchange ratio, you cannot assume that the situation will continue as it is for as long as you like. The Russians are capable of adapting and improving. Bashez posted:When will the land turn to poo poo? I thought I'd read they'd it would be okay into October. It usually does, but you cannot bank on it. The weather is, well, the weather.
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Jul 27, 2023 01:16
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https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1684298647414902786
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Jul 27, 2023 02:12
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What good will making this public do?
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Jul 27, 2023 02:14
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Rinkles posted:What good will making this public do? I suspect by this point the Russians already know. The article doesn't cover any specific details, and the Russians can look at a map.
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Jul 27, 2023 02:16
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Ukranian breakthrough? I'll believe it when i wake up and the thread has 200 replies
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Jul 27, 2023 02:16
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Staluigi posted:Ukranian breakthrough? I'll believe it when i wake up and the thread has 200 replies Can I offer you some dubious analysis based on a bug-gently caress twitter account?
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Jul 27, 2023 02:28
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Caros posted:I suspect by this point the Russians already know. The article doesn't cover any specific details, and the Russians can look at a map. The Russians already know there's an attack going down but that doesn't mean broadcasting "HEY GUYS THIS IS IT THIS IS THE MAIN ONE" is a good idea, mindgames notwithstanding.
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Jul 27, 2023 02:30
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Rinkles posted:What good will making this public do? It will keep some US official's relationship with their press contacts good, of course.
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Jul 27, 2023 02:32
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the holy poopacy posted:The Russians already know there's an attack going down but that doesn't mean broadcasting "HEY GUYS THIS IS IT THIS IS THE MAIN ONE" is a good idea, mindgames notwithstanding. Guessing Ukraine wants it known for some reason. EDIT: IIRC, didn't Kharkiv happen because they just kept going "MAIN ATTACK IN KHERSON! ANY DAY NOW!" over and over and then realized that Russia had left gaps elsewhere to exploit as a result?
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Jul 27, 2023 02:33
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Not to be that guy, but this quote comes to mind when you look at how loudly they're proclaiming that this is where the main thrust of the CO will beSome dusty old gently caress, 2500 years ago posted:All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
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Jul 27, 2023 02:50
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It's very plausible that Ukraine trusts the US with realtime info like this and also that some in the US with access to the info value clout with NY times reporters more than Ukraine success. Hopefully it doesn't matter much. Broadcasting the next steps assuming success does seem very weird.
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Jul 27, 2023 02:57
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Mederlock posted:Not to be that guy, but this quote comes to mind when you look at how loudly they're proclaiming that this is where the main thrust of the CO will be  you see general dougal, these Ukranians are very small, while those Ukranians are far away
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Jul 27, 2023 03:01
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IDK that you can hide the massive troop movements required to prepare for an offensive without first shooting down all the enemy's satellites.
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Jul 27, 2023 03:04
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Rinkles posted:What good will making this public do? His next tweet: https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1684306667070976007
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Jul 27, 2023 03:29
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Cpt_Obvious posted:IDK that you can hide the massive troop movements required to prepare for an offensive without first shooting down all the enemy's satellites. Maybe, but then again Kharkiv was a surprise last year. Though I guess lots of armored vehicles are harder to hide this time around. Kchama posted:IIRC, didn't Kharkiv happen because they just kept going "MAIN ATTACK IN KHERSON! ANY DAY NOW!" over and over and then realized that Russia had left gaps elsewhere to exploit as a result? Kherson actually kicked off first with territorial defense units going in first at the very end of August while Kharkiv opened on the 6th of September. I personally don't feel like this is a repeat of that though given that this new formation the Ukranians are putting in is actually the 2nd wave of units being thrown forward after a month of ineffective grinding. The estimate was 8-12 Western equipped brigades (edit: that have been prepared for the summer campaign), the commitment of these troops means a significant number have now been fed into the South and there is suspicion from Rybar that at least one of these brigades has been diverted north in case the situation gets out of hand along the Kreminna - Svatove line where the Russians have their own attack going on.
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Jul 27, 2023 03:29
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Bashez posted:I'm kind of surprised they're committing major forces right now. I felt like the status quo was pretty favorable to Ukraine with how effective their counter battery has been. There is no telling what the plan is, other than that Ukrainian generals think that it's beneficial to engage more fiercely right now. Maybe they have reconnaissance information on enemy strengths and minefields telling that now is the time to crush the first line of defense there. It could be only a temporary commitment. Even if Russians routed now, the mines will remain an obstacle for quick advances.
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Jul 27, 2023 04:27
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