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Zamujasa posted:I am just going to assume that DJT is still an electoral threat no matter what people's random-rear end calculus is, because not taking DJT seriously is what got us in this mess. "Oh he can't win, people aren't that stupid" yeah i specifically think it's dumb to count anything truly out and god help you if you message 'we're going to win in 202X, we don't even need to try' because that's a very fast way to hugely underperform---just look at 2022, but the question of how the republican party will bridge the divides is the million dollar question for them and very much one of the big things to watch as an observer of republican internal politics
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Aug 11, 2023 16:29
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Herstory Begins Now posted:? Please answer the questions. I specifically said above that 'Republican voters will fall in line and vote for him' is both disproven and not a solution to the core problem which remains completely unanswered. If that was true, he'd be president right now and he would never have had to try to steal an election. Answer what questions and how? We are quibbling over margins, over whether R voters turned off by the authoritarian implications of Trump's 2024 run outnumber new or returning voters who see a Trump win as an even more explicit gently caress you to The System than 2016, and whether that margin outnumbers the the margin between D voters turned off by Biden's senility and abortive legislative efforts and new or returning voters who see a Trump win as the end of democracy. We will only get a serious answer when some massive event (an actual Trump criminal conviction, some kind of serious public exacerbation of Biden's health/mental problems a la Hillary passing out on 9/11, etc.) causes an unprecedented polling break in one direction or the other, and failing that we'll only get a serious answer on election night. As it stands now, that faultline in the Republican party doesn't mean much at all, and I have no reason to believe that the 40% of Republicans who are sitting on their thumbs and sticking to Desantis or Ramaswamy or whoever the gently caress won't trundle in to vote for Big Don on election night because he still isn't Joe Biden.
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Aug 11, 2023 16:31
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Half his platform message in 2016 was "these people are all losers, they lose all the time, I never lose. Back me and we win forever." He's officially a loser now. A loser to Joe Biden. There's extreme negative appeal in that. Take a look at desantis. He's riding high in the GOP until picking a fight with Disney and losing legal ground. Losers aren't acceptable to the roaring fascist base.
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Aug 11, 2023 16:31
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Turnout is almost definitely going to be down from the ~70% it was in 2020. If turnout does fall, it will likely be in states that greatly restrict mail-in ballots, which are mostly going to be states that Trump wins comfortably anyway. Syphilicious! posted:D voters turned off by Biden's ... abortive legislative efforts Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 16:31
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Mellow Seas posted:I'm not sure. Ohio had their highest-ever special election turnout by miles this week. It seems like, thanks to Dobbs, the anti-Republican momentum from 2020 has just been accelerating, not slowing. That record was still only about 40% turnout. It was far smaller than a presidential race and you had a chunk of Republican voters voting against the amendment. You aren't going to see 30% of Republicans voting against Trump. Almost every state will effectively have more restricted mail-in ballots because even states that expanded them during covid aren't mailing them automatically anymore. Add in the states that actually legally restricted them, and there will almost certainly be fewer people voting by mail in 2024 compared to 2020.
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Aug 11, 2023 16:35
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Well, I certainly don't think Biden is going to win Ohio by 14 points... But if you get 40% in an election that the GOP was hoping would get 20%, it seems like turnout should be at least somewhat similarly juiced for major elections. It's not like abortion ISN'T going to be an issue next year. e: If I can throw another cockiness log on the fire, it seems like there has been a suggestion of a trend in 2018-2022, and in special elections during the last five years, that as an election becomes more obscure it's a benefit to Democrats, not Republicans. The educated, upper middle class accountant nerd who voted for Bush twice will show up in '26 to vote against extremist Republicans, while the stereotypical 2016 voter is too busy shooting a pyramid of Bud Light cans to notice it's Tuesday. (This is a bit of a mixed blessing, as it puts some economic rightward pressure on the Democrats, but it's an unambiguously terrible thing for Republicans.) Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 16:38
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I've already got another thread to fixate my anxieties about Trump's electoral chances in 2024 in. Can we keep this one to the CRIMES CRIMES CRIMES?
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Aug 11, 2023 16:44
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Judge Schnoopy posted:Losing Twitter is the nail in the coffin. Honestly, I think it was losing the character limit. He could be succinctly awful in 128 characters, but once the limit went away he just became crazy rambling grandpa.
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Aug 11, 2023 16:45
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Judge Schnoopy posted:Half his platform message in 2016 was "these people are all losers, they lose all the time, I never lose. Back me and we win forever." Didn't you hear? The election was stolen. It was rigged very bigly. The roaring fascist base doesn't think he actually lost, and all the other Republicans...will probably still vote for him.
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Aug 11, 2023 16:55
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Syphilicious! posted:Didn't you hear? The election was stolen. It was rigged very bigly. The roaring fascist base doesn't think he actually lost, and all the other Republicans...will probably still vote for him. Yeah it was stolen but then Trump still lost to the Democrats. Biden is still in the white house and Trump is in court. He's as much of a loser today as anybody he trounced in the 2016 primaries.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:00
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Snuffman posted:Honestly, I think it was losing the character limit. He could be succinctly awful in 128 characters, but once the limit went away he just became crazy rambling grandpa. Yep, this is key to his political story I think. If he could ramble on on Twitter back in 2015 as he can now on Truther (or Twitter/X for that matter, he got his account back he’s just not using it, lol) I seriously genuinely doubt he’d pick up enough momentum and media coverage to make it to the White House. Trump on Truther right now comes across as Mike Lindell and that is not a winning strategy.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:06
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Judge Schnoopy posted:Yeah it was stolen but then Trump still lost to the Democrats. Biden is still in the white house and Trump is in court. He's as much of a loser today as anybody he trounced in the 2016 primaries. If only he hadn't gone down that golden escalator in 2015 to try to renegotiate a better deal with NBC for the Apprentice, his and our lives would be so much better. Hubris is really the curse of the gods.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:12
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Judge Schnoopy posted:Yeah it was stolen but then Trump still lost to the Democrats. Biden is still in the white house and Trump is in court. He's as much of a loser today as anybody he trounced in the 2016 primaries. At the very least he's probably going to win the Republican nomination--I don't see that changing any time soon even with a conviction. We shall see how much of a loser he is then.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:20
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14th amendment trending today saying that he can't even be on the ballot. We just need to enforce it. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-disqualified-office-law-professors_n_64d5fa85e4b0b8690b83d185 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/trump-jan-6-insurrection-conservatives.html https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1689770917453348866 "William Baude of the University of Chicago and Michael Stokes Paulsen of the University of St. Thomas explain their conclusion in an article set to be published in the University of Pennsylvania Law Review. The constitutional scholars, both active in the conservative Federalist Society, studied the question for more than a year, according to The New York Times. “When we started out, neither of us was sure what the answer was,” Baude told the Times, adding that they engaged in the research to settle “an important constitutional question.” The answer, according to Baude: “Donald Trump cannot be president — cannot run for president, cannot become president, cannot hold office — unless two-thirds of Congress decides to grant him amnesty for his conduct on Jan. 6.”"
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Aug 11, 2023 17:21
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OgNar posted:The answer, according to Baude: “Donald Trump cannot be president — cannot run for president, cannot become president, cannot hold office — unless two-thirds of Congress decides to grant him amnesty for his conduct on Jan. 6.”" None of his charges involve insurrection or rebellion or aid of either by name. Now you get into dodgy questions of "is this insurrection?" Which the supreme court can unilaterally decide.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:29
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Judge Schnoopy posted:None of his charges involve insurrection or rebellion or aid of either by name. Now you get into dodgy questions of "is this insurrection?" Which the supreme court can unilaterally decide. Yes, good luck trying to get the 14th to stick on anyone who hasn't been convicted for treason or served in the Confederate army.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:32
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yeah this is just a complete pipe dream. sounds like that's getting published primarily because it's some fedsoc guys writing it and so they get good publicity for themselves (despite advocating for a position they know will never, ever affect trump)
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Aug 11, 2023 17:35
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Syphilicious! posted:and Joe is coughing up coffin dust. Nah, this is right-wing media bullshit. Joe may have fallen off a bike recently but he is capable of riding one. They're both old as poo poo but Joe is in better physical condition.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:49
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Syphilicious! posted:Didn't you hear? The election was stolen. It was rigged very bigly. The roaring fascist base doesn't think he actually lost, and all the other Republicans...will probably still vote for him. Glimm posted:Nah, this is right-wing media bullshit. Joe may have fallen off a bike recently but he is capable of riding one. They're both old as poo poo but Joe is in better physical condition. They are going to have trouble keeping this narrative up over the campaign when they are setting expectations for Biden so low. If he's half of what he was at the SOTU he'll be five times what they say he is. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 17:51
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Yeah its been brought up before and nothing panned out from it sadly. But then i'm all for public discussion about how he has betrayed the country in the hopes that something may eventually come from it.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:51
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Syphilicious! posted:At the very least he's probably going to win the Republican nomination--I don't see that changing any time soon even with a conviction. We shall see how much of a loser he is then. God forbid that something happens to Biden and Harris is the nominee.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:55
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Glimm posted:Nah, this is right-wing media bullshit. Joe may have fallen off a bike recently but he is capable of riding one. They're both old as poo poo but Joe is in better physical condition. Nah, when it comes along with claims that the DNC was prepared to suicide bomb the party in event of a Sanders nomination and has successfully destroyed the left for a generation, it's purestrain 2020 primary fantasy. When it turned out not to be true the right-wing media picked it up since they're untethered by facts.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:57
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https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1690029222482292736
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Aug 11, 2023 17:57
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Glimm posted:Nah, this is right-wing media bullshit. Joe may have fallen off a bike recently but he is capable of riding one. They're both old as poo poo but Joe is in better physical condition. I'm talking mental health, not physical. Sleepy Joe drifts in and out, has poor enunciation, rambles, etc. Trump is the exact same clueless moron he was eight years ago. Killer robot posted:Nah, when it comes along with claims that the DNC was prepared to suicide bomb the party in event of a Sanders nomination and has successfully destroyed the left for a generation, it's purestrain 2020 primary fantasy. When it turned out not to be true the right-wing media picked it up since they're untethered by facts. For the five seconds after Nevada that it looked like Sanders might run away with it, at least one CNN talking head was saying that he would sooner vote for Trump than he would for Sanders. A 'democratic socialist' nominated to the party, much less actually put in the Oval Office, simply could not be allowed to happen, and all of the non-Sanders non-Biden candidates immediately dropping out and closing ranks around Biden was their first resort, not their last resort. Syphilicious! fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 17:59
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Cimber posted:God forbid that something happens to Biden and Harris is the nominee. My preference would very much be that Biden serves out his term and Harris gets buried in the '28 primary, but I still think she would beat Convicted Felon Trump. The downside there is that an incumbent Harris would be pretty likely to get the '28 nomination. Maybe the last few years have made Kamala drift a bit away from the Hillary faction to the Biden faction of the low-key split within establishment Democrats (and I very much prefer the latter, since it does things like make labor leaders labor secretary instead of Howard loving Schultz*), although I wouldn't hold my breath on that. * I'm still not convinced that the reports Hillary was going to nominate Schultz aren't some kind of backchannel slander but it's way, way too plausible. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 18:01
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Syphilicious! posted:Joe drifts in and out, has poor enunciation, rambles, etc. I should have said physically and mentally. Joe is fine, always done that poo poo to some extent. Thinking he is Kamala's puppet or whatever is just choking down right-wing insanity.
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Aug 11, 2023 18:02
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Uglycat posted:Trump's plan is to become president, and pardon himself. on the other hand maybe it will work
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Aug 11, 2023 18:05
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Glimm posted:I should have said physically and mentally. Joe is fine. Thinking is Kamala's puppet or whatever is just choking down right-wing insanity. Nobody thinks Biden is Kamala Harris' puppet. Her position in the administration is more than enough evidence of that. But he is slipping and slipping hard, and it's moronic to pretend that it isn't happening in the same political moment that has McConnell and Feinstein filling their diapers on live TV. He has his good moments and his bad moments, but the bad moments are there: he gets confused and angry and gives up on thoughts and sentences, and none of those missed stage cues where kind of wanders around looking for the exit make for good television.
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Aug 11, 2023 18:07
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Syphilicious! posted:Nobody thinks Biden is Kamala Harris' puppet. Her position in the administration is more than enough evidence of that. But he is slipping and slipping hard, and it's moronic to pretend that it isn't happening in the same political moment that has McConnell and Feinstein filling their diapers on live TV. I also have a conspiracy theory that Biden's reelection run is a DNC plot so he can drop out for health reasons before the convention and they can get their preferred candidate (probably Newsom) in without a messy primary. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 18:11 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 18:08
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Syphilicious! posted:He has his good moments and his bad moments, but the bad moments are there: he gets confused and angry and gives up on thoughts and sentences, and none of those missed stage cues where kind of wanders around looking for the exit make for good television. Nah, just stupid media personalities hyping this and dopes falling for it.
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Aug 11, 2023 18:10
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Glimm posted:Nah, just stupid media personalities hyping this and dopes falling for it. Stupid media personalities hyping it by showing videos of him talking and appearing in public? is that true for McConnell and Feinstein as well? Are those 'nothingburgers' too?
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Aug 11, 2023 18:13
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Syphilicious! posted:Stupid media personalities hyping it by showing videos of him talking and appearing in public? is that true for McConnell and Feinstein as well? Are those 'nothingburgers' too? They're not equivalent at all imo. I'm done with this derail, apologies for starting it. Glimm fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 18:15
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Since I have been a top contributor to this 2024 election derail I thought I would post some CRIMES stuff. Former Bush admin lawyer (and anti-Trumper) David French laid out a little fake legal debate between Trump's defense and the prosecution. When I saw the op-ed I rolled my eyes at the thought of a centrist ventriloquizing two sides he didn't belong to, but it actually is a pretty decent and dry summary. It works almost more like a "Vox explainer" kind of thing than an actual op-ed. David French in the NYT posted:Let's Have a Face-Off on Trump's Indictment Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 18:18
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Cimber posted:God forbid that something happens to Biden and Harris is the nominee. Harris is currently less popular than Biden, which is a terrible sign for her electability. Sure, that may be due to racism and/or sexism, but having approval ratings in the 30s is pretty dire. She performed terribly in the Dem primary. If Biden dies right before the general and Harris becomes the nominee without having won a primary ever, I can easily see Trump winning. Dems, even moderate ones, would be super pissed about having a nominee that no one chose.
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Aug 11, 2023 18:19
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I am asking quite straight forwardly: how do you see the republican party bridging the current divide that defines the party? Yes I certainly agree that anything is possible and in particular dems really need to not message anything at all ever on 'republicans are hosed and can't win' or get complacent, but those are both entirely separate from the question of how the gop gets over its currently fractured state. By focusing on the one point that they all wholeheartedly agree on: that The GOP has been wrestling with these internal divides for basically the entirety of the 21st century so far. While it's certainly brought a lot of stress and instability to the party, so far there isn't really any evidence that these splits are consistently ruining its chances. Sure, 2020 and 2022 haven't been so great for the GOP, but I wouldn't be so quick to declare that this is finally the breaking point. Syphilicious! posted:I'm talking mental health, not physical. Sleepy Joe drifts in and out, has poor enunciation, rambles, etc. Trump is the exact same clueless moron he was eight years ago. One random talking head dumbass on CNN saying he wouldn't vote Sanders in the election is not evidence that the Democratic Party would run a spoiler candidate against Sanders in the primary. Hell, there were a handful of conservative talking heads who dared to go on TV and say they wouldn't back Trump in the general, and yet there was no third-party spoiler from the GOP side. Syphilicious! posted:Stupid media personalities hyping it by showing videos of him talking and appearing in public? is that true for McConnell and Feinstein as well? Are those 'nothingburgers' too? None of that's new for Joe at all, though. He's been notoriously prone to off-the-cuff speaking mistakes, confused moments, and gaffes for a very long time. He's had that reputation for decades at that point, it's not an old age thing. Maybe it's worse now, but it's impossible to tell when the GOP is combing over every second of Biden public appearances for something they can recut into a Biden gaffe moment regardless of how much they have to edit the video. In practice, it doesn't really seem to bother voters. As Joe himself put it back in 2018, "I am a gaffe machine, but my God what a wonderful thing compared to a guy who can’t tell the truth".
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Aug 11, 2023 18:33
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Biden has not made traditional "Biden-style" gaffes (e.g. "you ain't black") in his presidency, which suggests he's being very, very heavily stage managed, which might make him appear even less comfortable speaking because he's basically spending the entire time holding in gigantic verbal farts.
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Aug 11, 2023 18:55
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Nitrousoxide posted:A pardon is, in fact, an implicit admission of guilt. The SCOTUS has held you can refuse a pardon for this (and other) reason(s). They didn't rule that a pardon is an implicit admission of guilt. a) it's dictum b) the statement is that it "carries an imputation of guilt and acceptance of a confession of it" which is not saying that they are guilty and have confessed c) lots of provably innocent people are exonerated by pardon
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Aug 11, 2023 19:57
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The problem for the GOP (And the democrats but they are handling it differently) is that they are a 'big tent', with many different factions with competing goals trying to run policy. Between the Nixon Era to 9-11, the leading faction was the business types who controlled things. Neocons/war hawks were second in control, while the religious nutcakes were tolerated and given lip service and promises to 'do something' about abortion in exchange for their votes and money. After 9/11 the neoncons/war hawks pretty much took over, and the business types started having their power wane a bit while the nutcakes started getting more and more power. The growth of the internet helped add a 4th faction, the anti-government conspiracy wackos who always were in the dark corners of the GOP but not able to communicate. At the same time the blue collar guy, normally a reliable democratic voter figured out that he was getting screwed by the democrats and everything was their fault. Oh, and unions sucked! So now in 2008 the GOP had 5 factions duking it out. Business, neocons, nutcakes, conspiracy wackos and blue-collar joes. Then the black guy happened. The neocons and business factions were shunted aside with the help of Fox News who catered to the number one thing, ratings. How to get ratings? Give the wakcos, nutcakes and joes what they want. Trump? Well, he weponized nutcakes, as we saw. Business? Not happy at all. Wackso? Love it, they got what they wanted even if they didn't _really_ want it. Joes? They are happy to have someone to blame. However, all this is a very unstable coalition, and we are starting to see the threads pulling at the scenes. I would not be surprised if in 20 years the business wing has moved over towards the democrats because the one thing they want is calm and stability, and the current GOP does not exactly give them that.
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Aug 11, 2023 20:33
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Yiggy posted:Their brainwormed client insists that they "Get out there" and flood the zone with defense. There has been a bunch of reporting on Trump that he has a strong psychological need for surrogates to always be out there on TV (what he watches all day) supporting and affirming him. I am imagining a far more pleasant reality where Trump got really into vtubers.
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Aug 11, 2023 20:48
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I think this is brilliant if she actually does it. “We need a month to respond to the government’s motion” *Trump rants about Smith on Fox* “you have three days so that we can maintain schedule and preserve your clients right to a fair trial”
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Aug 11, 2023 21:07
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