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fatherboxx)
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daslog posted:Do you think we're actually going to do that? So long as Trump loses, yes.
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Aug 15, 2023 22:54
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Hi, I see you discussing a complicated, ongoing situation. Have you instead considered the most simplistic cynical take, made with no in-depth knowledge of the subject matter? I'll take my Smartest Guy In The Room award off the air, thanks.
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Aug 15, 2023 22:56
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HolHorsejob posted:Hi, I see you discussing a complicated, ongoing situation. Have you instead considered the most simplistic cynical take, made with no in-depth knowledge of the subject matter? I'll take my Smartest Guy In The Room award off the air, thanks. ^clears through* Hellworld
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Aug 15, 2023 23:01
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daslog posted:Feels like a silly question but I'll answer it anyway. If the Ukraine cannot take any more territory back from the Russians then they are best hope is to hope that they can join the NATO after a negotiated settlement. You originally agreed that it's a good idea that some idiot came up with a peace offer that Ukraine should trade territory for NATO-membership with Russia. But that's counter to what Russia wants they won't agree to something this agressively seen as Anti-Russian until Ukraine has retaken all their territory anyway, at least it was a dumb offer
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Aug 15, 2023 23:05
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Libluini posted:You originally agreed that it's a good idea that some idiot came up with a peace offer that Ukraine should trade territory for NATO-membership with Russia. But that's counter to what Russia wants I do agree that Putin won't go for it. There would have to be other circumstances that force him to the negotiation table for this to happen.
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Aug 15, 2023 23:11
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daslog posted:I'm a pragmatist. The idealist in me thinks that a bullet in Putin's brain is what should happen. Until putin is out of the picture I doubt any other resolution is possible. Neither side wants to stop fighting and neither side is seeking any sort of peace agreement. Ukraine would rather fight the Somme over again for years than accept a mere partial victory, and the same is true of Putin.
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Aug 15, 2023 23:15
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Dirt5o8 posted:Is that in English? I'd love to read it. I haven't seen a breakdown of what mines are in use, I'm just working on the assumption that the massive, truck laid minefields are the standard surface-lay variety. Cheap and easy to produce I think this was the article the OP was referring to: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/13/ukraine-sappers-mine-clearers-russia-war
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Aug 15, 2023 23:18
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daslog posted:Do you think we're actually going to do that? That's a coin flip for the US. If Biden wins the US will keep supporting Ukraine for a while. Just look at how unpopular the wars in the Middle East became, yet continued to grind on in spite of public opinion. The US public currently supports Ukraine a lot more, and it's a very different kind of war which notably isn't costing American lives (ignoring volunteers, the US government didn't order them there). So if Biden wins it seems very likely support will continue for at least another 4 years unless Ukraine collapses. But if Trump somehow gets back in, likely support will dry up. The military industry and its agents would try to prevent Trump from cutting support, but he's done far more unprecedented actions in his 1st term so overriding them is entirely possible. What's telling off some donors compared to inciting a literal coup. NATO might not survive Trump getting back in, hell US democracy might not survive it. So option 1 is likely material support continues even if public opinion wanes. And option 2 is "Here be dragons".
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Aug 15, 2023 23:20
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How likely is it at this point that Trump wins? Especially with all the piling indictments.
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Aug 15, 2023 23:22
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Kraftwerk posted:How likely is it at this point that Trump wins? Especially with all the piling indictments. Not a topic for this thread thats for sure
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Aug 15, 2023 23:27
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Kraftwerk posted:How likely is it at this point that Trump wins? Especially with all the piling indictments. you should go ask the people actively partying rn in the trump indictment thread
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Aug 16, 2023 00:26
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Libluini posted:You originally agreed that it's a good idea that some idiot came up with a peace offer that Ukraine should trade territory for NATO-membership with Russia. But that's counter to what Russia wants Neither country seems to be anywhere close to getting what they want out of this war so if they wear each other down long enough anything's possible maybe.
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Aug 16, 2023 00:39
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Until putin is out of the picture I doubt any other resolution is possible. Neither side wants to stop fighting and neither side is seeking any sort of peace agreement. Ukraine would rather fight the Somme over again for years than accept a mere partial victory, and the same is true of Putin. By Ukraine, I guess you mean the government because I doubt every citizen wants to "fight the Somme over again for years". Here's an article about how many of them are trying to skip town instead: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/15/bribes-and-hiding-at-home-the-ukrainian-men-trying-to-avoid-conscription
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Aug 16, 2023 00:45
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adebisi lives posted:By Ukraine, I guess you mean the government because I doubt every citizen wants to "fight the Somme over again for years". Here's an article about how many of them are trying to skip town instead: The article also says many would gladly fight if called upon, your link doesn't support your point. Orthanc6 posted:That's a coin flip for the US. If Biden wins the US will keep supporting Ukraine for a while. Just look at how unpopular the wars in the Middle East became, yet continued to grind on in spite of public opinion. The US public currently supports Ukraine a lot more, and it's a very different kind of war which notably isn't costing American lives (ignoring volunteers, the US government didn't order them there). So if Biden wins it seems very likely support will continue for at least another 4 years unless Ukraine collapses. Its also an open question if any other Republican would withdraw support; Trump afterall did send weapons to Ukraine, a non-Trump who ends up somehow the nominee who somehow beats Biden may gladly support supporting Ukraine *more*. But this is very speculative; but is meant to show "anything can happen" and nothing and no outcome should be taken for granted. daslog posted:Do you think we're actually going to do that? The problem here is you keep asserting a hypothetical which has very little evidence of occurring; there's no compelling reason to make your line of questioning or a priori assumptions credible and as a result are largely "begging the question"; you didn't address any of the counterarguments that you were responded with, why is this time any different?
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Aug 16, 2023 01:00
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Raenir Salazar posted:The article also says many would gladly fight if called upon, your link doesn't support your point. The information given in that article overwhelmingly supports the idea that the majority of those willing to fight have already volunteered and are in uniform or incapacitated and those who are left are finding means to dodge the draft. poor waif posted:Wouldn't the Russia just try to freeze the conflict rather than agree to any negotiation that lets Ukraine join NATO? This post cuts to the core of the discussion about some rump Ukraine surrendering territory and joining NATO or something of that nature. Peace cannot be had until both sides are willing to give up things that caused them to go to war in the first place. Putin's Russia refuses to let go of what remains of its Near Abroad and Zelensky's Ukraine refuses to accept anything less than a continual march into Western institutions and cut off its historic ties and dependency on Russia. Regardless of where the battle lines are, there will be no real peace until one side or another is willing to give up the fundamental idea which sparked this conflict which began in 2014. Ukraine and Russia must come to some sort of modus venendi or any peace is really just a truce for one side or another to find enough leverage to restart the fight. Ukraine occupying Russian territory won't change that. Nenonen posted:It's going to be interesting to see where this goes and what we will learn of the Russian defense later on. Russian defense of the first line seemed really aggressive, as if the command thought that the offensive could be stopped dead on its tracks instead of defense in depth. Now this appears to have changed, the reason for which remains to be seen. Were Russian frontline troops losing too many men holding the lines? Or were their artillery losing too many guns or not receiving enough ammunition to stop the Ukrainian spearheads? Or is this all according to plan of Shoigu and Gerasimov and Ukrainians will be delivered a fatal blow at the main line? Gotta stay tuned! I don't see anything that has changed fundamentally. This is the continuation of the pattern seen in the past 2 months where Russian forces in the Southern theatre continue to force the Ukrainians to level every building and strong point in a given area before pulling back to the next one. There are no spearheads. Just a continual rotation of small-scale infantry probes, occasionally backed by armor. Meanwhile, the deadly game of cat and mouse continues as Russian artillery responds and shells the Ukrainians and is in turn fired upon by Ukrainian artillery on counter-battery duty. Daily fighting by infantry on both sides slowly turns any structure into complete rubble until their position is no longer tenable and the Russians fall back. Many more villages and strong points still exist south of Urozhaine though. Zavitne and Staromlynivka are next in line around 5 km south and the main defense line starts another 7km south of those two built-up areas. At the current pace, the Ukrainians won't even reach the main fortified line near Novopetrevika (the main road they are advancing down on in this sector) before autumn rains potentially force a pause in operations. The upshot is that Ukrainians are finally starting to see their logistic strikes pay off in the south and DPICM munitions are proving effective. The balance of artillery is shifting toward the Ukrainian's favour in the south and Rybar reported a few days ago that the decentralization of supplies has meant a shortage of Russian ATGMs which, along with the trimming of Russia's attack helicopter fleet, maybe the reason why the AFU is willing to send vehicles in greater numbers again. Rybar describes the situation not as chronic but that they now have to pick and choose (Rybar's words) the most valuable targets rather than what is implied to be just using them on any vehicle they see. Footage of DPICM strikes on Russian infantry reinforcements moving towards Urozhaine may also have factored in on the decision to give up the now flattened settlement.
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Aug 16, 2023 03:20
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Ukraine did not "go to war". This is not "Zelensky's" Ukraine. It's a country subject to a one-sided genocidal invasion.
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Aug 16, 2023 03:34
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MikeC posted:
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Aug 16, 2023 03:43
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MikeC posted:Peace cannot be had until both sides are willing to give up things that caused them to go to war in the first place. i am very interested in hearing what you think caused ukraine to go to war
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Aug 16, 2023 03:51
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Kith posted:i am very interested in hearing what you think caused ukraine to go to war Oh, he answered that already. MikeC posted:Putin's Russia refuses to let go of what remains of its Near Abroad and Zelensky's Ukraine refuses to accept anything less than a continual march into Western institutions and cut off its historic ties and dependency on Russia. drat that desire for self-determination! Ukrainians aren't supposed to have opinions about things like 'who rules them' and 'who they are dependent on', that's Russia's job! Prism fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 03:53
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If only Ukraine would give up it's continual march into Western institutions instead of cutting off it's ties with (checks notes)... the country that is invading them.
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Aug 16, 2023 03:54
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Popete posted:If only Ukraine would give up it's continual march into Western institutions instead of cutting off it's ties with (checks notes)... the country that is invading them. And has been for considerably longer than Zelensky has been president.
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Aug 16, 2023 03:58
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MikeC posted:The information given in that article overwhelmingly supports the idea that the majority of those willing to fight have already volunteered and are in uniform or incapacitated and those who are left are finding means to dodge the draft. Can you quote where it says this? I doubt the entirety of the "willing" military age population of Ukraine is already serving such that the only military aged population remaining are "unwilling" draft dodgers. This is very odd framing; even in WW2 large populations of nations on both side had to be drafted at some point to fill manpower needs, this doesn't say or reflect the overall moral of the population as a whole or its willingness to continue sacrifice to fight on. I don't think the article from my reading supports this interpretation.
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Aug 16, 2023 04:05
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Popete posted:If only Ukraine would give up it's continual march into Western institutions instead of cutting off it's ties with (checks notes)... the country that is invading them. And also annexed a chunk of their land years earlier breaking a treaty.
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Aug 16, 2023 04:06
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socialsecurity posted:And also annexed a chunk of their land years earlier breaking a treaty. You just have to show Putin a little trust. He’s totally going to pay Ukraine back next Tuesday.
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Aug 16, 2023 04:10
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Kaal posted:I agree, and I think that another thing to remember is that Russian society has a wide variety of crises that it is confronting simultaneously here. In addition to the disabling effects of corruption, the faltering war itself, and the economic stagflation that have gripped the Russian state, the societal fabric is being pulled apart in less visible ways. Huge numbers of the wealthy and middle-class have fled the country, adding to a persistent decrease in fertility and population growth. Lack of education and unemployment are challenging the remaining population, despite unsustainable military spending. Alcoholism, injection drug usage, and depression plague the population. Consequently, HIV and Hep C rates have become an epidemic, particularly amongst the military-aged. Domestic violence rates have become shockingly ubiquitous. Life expectancy statistics have been steadily declining, while retirement age is being raised. Family and community strife related to at least one of these issues is nearly universal. The social contract is visibly fraying. May you expand upon this? And what I mean by that, from what I am interpreting from this description of current Russian society and along reading other media is that it's honestly pretty terrible? But how can this be real? It sounds like a borderline dystopian fiction novel that is not at all real... but is? How did it get this way? How does it... even persist?
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Aug 16, 2023 04:31
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MikeC posted:Zelensky's Ukraine refuses to accept anything less than a continual march into Western institutions and cut off its historic ties and dependency on Russia. Damned unreasonable Ukrainians wanting self-determination and independence from a neighboring imperial power that's historically oppressed them.
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Aug 16, 2023 04:42
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Raenir Salazar posted:Can you quote where it says this? I doubt the entirety of the "willing" military age population of Ukraine is already serving such that the only military aged population remaining are "unwilling" draft dodgers. This is very odd framing; even in WW2 large populations of nations on both side had to be drafted at some point to fill manpower needs, this doesn't say or reflect the overall moral of the population as a whole or its willingness to continue sacrifice to fight on. I don't think the article from my reading supports this interpretation. It is like right in the article quote:More than a year later, however, many of those initial recruits are now dead, wounded or simply exhausted, and the army needs new recruits to fill the ranks. By now, most of those who want to fight have already signed up, leaving the military to recruit among a much more reluctant pool of men. And the rest of the article goes on with evidence from interviews and the conscription evasion telegram channel in Odessa. Is it a definitive finding? No. But it doesn't paint a picture as you claim that "many would gladly fight" (your words). Those who were willing are, as they said, already in uniform. The increase in men being mobilized by the AFU being older than the military norm as cited by Kofman and others, as well as the attempts to curb corruption in the conscription efforts signals that Ukraine is beginning to approach a manpower crunch and that those unwilling are likely going to be more forcefully compelled. Prism posted:Oh, he answered that already. The Artificial Kid posted:let’s hope Ukraine gives up its obnoxious obsession with self determination so that Russia doesn’t have to have any more imperial dignity cruelly ripped away. Kith posted:i am very interested in hearing what you think caused ukraine to go to war You cheerleaders are wierd. Stating simple facts seems to break your brain. Yes, the Ukrainian desire to break from the Russian sphere of influence is a cause for this war. Deal with it. Discendo Vox posted:Ukraine did not "go to war". This is not "Zelensky's" Ukraine. It's a country subject to a one-sided genocidal invasion. You should use the term genocide and its adjectives more sparingly or they will lose meaning. War crimes like stealing of children are being committed by the Russians but Ukrainians are not being wholesale carted off en masse into concentration camps or relocated to Siberia like in the days of Uncle Joe. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2023 04:51
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Russia who has in the past committed genocide against Ukrainians and who have for the past decade been slowly annexing Ukrainian territory should cease their "desire to break from the Russian sphere of influence" so that what? Russia magically stops doing those things that are directly causing Ukraine to turn away from them? You're making it sound like Ukraine is somehow at fault for any of this.
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Aug 16, 2023 04:56
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Popete posted:Russia who has in the past committed genocide against Ukrainians and who have for the past decade been slowly annexing Ukrainian territory should cease their "desire to break from the Russian sphere of influence" so that what? Russia magically stops doing those things that are directly causing Ukraine to turn away from them? Please quote where I said "Ukraine should cease their desire to break free from the Russian sphere of influence" (your words). Vincent Van Goatse posted:Damned unreasonable Ukrainians wanting self-determination and independence from a neighboring imperial power that's historically oppressed them. Really? You think that is unreasonable? I don't
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Aug 16, 2023 04:58
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MikeC posted:Please quote where I said "Ukraine should cease their desire to break free from the Russian sphere of influence" (your words). MikeC posted:Peace cannot be had until both sides are willing to give up things that caused them to go to war in the first place. Putin's Russia refuses to let go of what remains of its Near Abroad and Zelensky's Ukraine refuses to accept anything less than a continual march into Western institutions and cut off its historic ties and dependency on Russia.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:00
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MikeC posted:You should use the term genocide and its adjectives more sparingly or they will lose meaning. Shall we stick to, say, the official UN definition?
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Aug 16, 2023 05:00
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You have some sort of english comp deficiency? (at Popete) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2023 05:01
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The guy holding me at gunpoint says I can stop being robbed at any time If I just give up my continual march towards the desire to keep my wallet.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:01
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Popete posted:The guy holding me at gunpoint says I can stop being robbed at any point If I just give up my continual march towards the desire to keep my wallet. If you got held up and the guy said gimme your wallet or I am gonna fight you, and you refuse to give up the wallet - that is a cause for you to get a fight. It is not *the* cause, but it is *a* cause. It also does not assign moral judgement to whether it is right or wrong for your to refuse to give up your wallet or that violence is warranted against you. It is a simple statement of fact.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:03
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MikeC posted:Putin's Russia refuses to let go of what remains of its Near Abroad and Zelensky's Ukraine refuses to accept anything less than a continual march into Western institutions and cut off its historic ties and dependency on Russia. Regardless of where the battle lines are, there will be no real peace until one side or another is willing to give up the fundamental idea which sparked this conflict which began in 2014. Ukraine and Russia must come to some sort of modus venendi or any peace is really just a truce for one side or another to find enough leverage to restart the fight. Ukraine occupying Russian territory won't change that. MikeC posted:You cheerleaders are wierd. Stating simple facts seems to break your brain. Yes, the Ukrainian desire to break from the Russian sphere of influence is a cause for this war. Deal with it. I think it might help if you articulated what you think Ukraine could have done to pacify Russia before the invasion. Russia's prewar demands ("denazification" and demilitarization) were pretty open-ended and extreme and there does not seem to be any sign that it has let go of those demands. If anything, the war basically pushed Ukraine even further in the direction that Russia supposedly did not want. The annexations and Putin doubling down on the rhetoric of Ukraine not being a legitimate state also suggest that there is no real end to what Russia wants that involves Ukraine still being a separate country.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:04
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MikeC posted:If you got held up and the guy said gimme your wallet or I am gonna fight you, and you refuse to give up the wallet - that is a cause for you to get a fight. It is not *the* cause, but it is *a* cause. It also does not assign moral judgement to whether it is right or wrong for your to refuse to give up your wallet or that violence is warranted against you. It is a simple statement of fact. What exactly in your opinion should Ukraine be giving up so as to not continue being invaded? Ukraine can't using "existing" as a negotiating chip as if it was somehow a thing they could have ceased doing to appease Russia.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:07
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MikeC posted:You should use the term genocide and its adjectives more sparingly or they will lose meaning. War crimes like stealing of children are being committed by the Russians but Ukrainians are not being wholesale carted off en masse into concentration camps or relocated to Siberia like in the days of Uncle Joe. You're right, they're being carted off en masse into "filtration camps" and then forcibly relocated to a number of remote parts of Russia.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:10
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Eric Cantonese posted:I think it might help if you articulated what you think Ukraine could have done to pacify Russia before the invasion. The only thing Ukraine could have done to pacify Russia was to about-face and be willing to act like Belarus, a puppet state. Maybe in 2014 before the annexation, they could have tired from some buffer zone status but that is uncertain. Nothing wrong with violent resistance to Russian aims. But this is a barrier to peace and no truce, peace deal, or treaty will paper over that fact unless one side or another gains total military victory which seems rather unlikely. Until Putin and the Russians give up on the dream of empire or the Ukrainians give up the dream of true independence, the shooting will continue and any stoppage in fighting will be temporary.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:11
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Discendo Vox posted:You're right, they're being carted off en masse into "filtration camps" and then forcibly relocated to a number of remote parts of Russia. Now, now, that's only in the territories Russia has been able to take hold of.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:15
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Discendo Vox posted:You're right, they're being carted off en masse into "filtration camps" and then forcibly relocated to a number of remote parts of Russia. Which is why when there were plenty of Ukrainians there to greet the AFU as liberators in the Kharkiv region and in Kherson why they rolled through those areas in the bottom half of 2022? Are deportations happening? Yes. Are they on the genocidal scale of a "final solution?" Probably not quite there yet, even Ukrainian territory is still held by the Russians. I mean you can't have Putin photo ops with Mariupol residents if they are all in the gulags can you?
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Aug 16, 2023 05:16
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