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the year is 2033. all politicians have negative favorability with the general electorate. every politician's policy is virulently hated by their own supporters unless their image is flashed on the screen, to indicate to them that it is good
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Aug 16, 2023 21:19
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Didn't DeSantis end up waiting so long to declare because the legislature had to knock down a law that stopped someone from holding state executive office and running for national at the same time?
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Aug 16, 2023 21:22
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Crunch Buttsteak posted:I don't really get why people thought that DeSantis would be "Trump without the baggage", as if non-conservatives dislike Trump for purely personal reasons. Like, since 2020, DeSantis has essentially made his public persona "hi there I'm here to take over the government, replace everyone in power with my yes-men, and get rid of those pesky minority rights", do they think that just because he doesn't do Trump Twitter Antics that liberals might give him a shot? Worked for Youngkin
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Aug 16, 2023 21:22
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Crunch Buttsteak posted:I don't really get why people thought that DeSantis would be "Trump without the baggage", as if non-conservatives dislike Trump for purely personal reasons. Like, since 2020, DeSantis has essentially made his public persona "hi there I'm here to take over the government, replace everyone in power with my yes-men, and get rid of those pesky minority rights", do they think that just because he doesn't do Trump Twitter Antics that liberals might give him a shot? There's a segment of moderates and conservatives who really like Trump's policies but are genuinely repulsed by his personal behaviors. And I think that group is overrepresented among the educated, well-off upper-middle classes - you know, the kinds of people who are just fine with slashing taxes and purging the homeless, but are slightly uncomfortable with overt white nationalism and consider it hopelessly unclassy to serve a Big Mac platter at the White House. And since the national media and political classes tend to have close ties to those demographics, they've been particularly sensitive to that desire for an arch-conservative who sheds all the baggage from Trump's personal behavior. As for why anyone thought DeSantis would be the guy, that's mostly because he's been very obviously lining up a run for years, so he's built name recognition by spending years as the obvious challenger. And since nobody really knew for sure whether Trump's base would stick with him through all the election losses, investigations, and indictments, nobody really bothered paying any attention to DeSantis' actual qualities as a candidate.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:23
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Kaal posted:Personally I’m convinced that DeSantis is simply running for heir-apparent. Maybe Trump burns out, maybe he loses and fucks off, or maybe he wins and doesn’t seek a third term - either way, DeSantis is in the public eye as first among also-rans. And in the meantime he can continue treating Florida as his personal fiefdom. It’s fairly win-win unless he strongly offends Trump by publicly running against him. To my mind, it’s the only thing that really explains his actions. He's term-limited out of office in Florida in 2026, which would leave him with a year or so being out of the public eye before he could start a conceivable 2028 campaign, which isn't the longest time, but for an unpleasant goblin like DeSantis who doesn't do well when he seeks publicity on his own it'd be hard to maintain prominence. To say nothing of what Trump would do to torpedo him for what he's all but openly called a betrayal for running against him right now (offer possibly not valid if Trump's in prison by that point). Personally, I think it's more likely Pence than DeSantis is using this campaign as a springboard to 2028, wrongly gambling that by then he can play the Sensible Republican who Saved the Republic during the 2021 crisis and that the rest of the party won't still be calling for his summary execution.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:24
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the year is 2033. all politicians have negative favorability with the general electorate. every politician's policy is virulently hated by their own supporters unless their image is flashed on the screen, to indicate to them that it is good This is democracy manifest!
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Aug 16, 2023 21:26
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zoux posted:I mean there are a lot of successful politicians that are terrible at the personal touch. There's something uncanny valley-like to Jindal and DeSantis. Those clips of DeSantis trying to laugh are always incredibly off putting. Like the best way I could describe it is if someone was trying to teach a robot emotions and inputted Robin Williams (may he rest in peace) being his most insane for the camera as the human baseline.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:31
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FlamingLiberal posted:He’s kind of hosed here long-term because he’s halfway through his second term in office and both Senators are Republicans. So he doesn’t really have many options to go for in the state and his career is going to fizzle out unless Trump falls off of a bridge or something Well his current term would end in January 2027, which would free up his schedule at the beginning of the 2028 election season. Presumably that election would be more promising for him than this one, so long as he didn't come out of this primary too bruised. Since the Florida term limit restrictions are only for consecutive years, he'd still have the option of retaking the Florida governorship after that election and reigning for another eight years. And that's before considering any number of less likely alternatives.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:32
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Alkydere posted:Those clips of DeSantis trying to laugh are always incredibly off putting. Like the best way I could describe it is if someone was trying to teach a robot emotions and inputted Robin Williams (may he rest in peace) being his most insane for the camera as the human baseline. Again I feel it's relevant to bring up DeSantis was personally involved in the Guantanamo torture program back when he was in the Navy and inmates have testified he laughed while watching them be force-fed. I think he may be genuinely broken when it comes to interacting with other humans.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Some hilarious anecdotes in this deep dive into DeSantis' campaign. One hilarious problem is that he needs Trump to get less popular among Republican primary voters, but every attack angle they polled would be very successful - until they added that the attack was about Trump - then, it would make people more angry at DeSantis. Which kind of explains his weird reluctance to criticize Trump at all. GhostofJohnMuir posted:the year is 2033. all politicians have negative favorability with the general electorate. every politician's policy is virulently hated by their own supporters unless their image is flashed on the screen, to indicate to them that it is good That's honestly not a new phenomenon. Hell, Bernie's team figured out similar things WRT social programs. When you said "Medicare for all", they instantly said "No, that's socialism, we can't be supporting that.", but if you just gave them the definition without saying what it was called, they were all for it.
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Aug 16, 2023 22:01
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I don't think any non-Trump Republicans ever expected to beat him. They just needed to exist as a backup plan. It was a gamble that could've possibly paid off if they could automatically inherit all that MAGA cult appeal. (Perhaps even longer than 2 terms, who knows?) Fortunately with Trump still around, I think we're finding that the only other option is a total burnout.
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Aug 16, 2023 22:32
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FlamingLiberal posted:He’s kind of hosed here long-term because he’s halfway through his second term in office and both Senators are Republicans. So he doesn’t really have many options to go for in the state and his career is going to fizzle out unless Trump falls off of a bridge or something When does he have to declare candidacy by? Because he could probably primary Rick Scott and none of the gop rank and file would mind.
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Aug 16, 2023 22:59
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Glazius posted:Didn't DeSantis end up waiting so long to declare because the legislature had to knock down a law that stopped someone from holding state executive office and running for national at the same time? The Florida Legislature is all but a rubber stamp for the Republican Governor. They waited so long to "fix" the law because DeSantis wanted to wait that long. The Legislature was actually starting to get pissed about it.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:31
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Sir Lemming posted:I don't think any non-Trump Republicans ever expected to beat him. They just needed to exist as a backup plan. It was a gamble that could've possibly paid off if they could automatically inherit all that MAGA cult appeal. (Perhaps even longer than 2 terms, who knows?) Fortunately with Trump still around, I think we're finding that the only other option is a total burnout. The problem is that running against Trump is, to him, a personal attack. So you're going to become an enemy to his rabid base.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:54
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Sir Lemming posted:I don't think any non-Trump Republicans ever expected to beat him. They just needed to exist as a backup plan. It was a gamble that could've possibly paid off if they could automatically inherit all that MAGA cult appeal. (Perhaps even longer than 2 terms, who knows?) Fortunately with Trump still around, I think we're finding that the only other option is a total burnout. I think they were banking on these indictments taking him out but it didn't work and it's clear he'd win the primary from a prison cell. Under that theory - say our big sweaty almost 80 years old former president drops dead of any of the innumerable health problems he obviously has - you'd see every perennial candidate that is currently sitting this one out - Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee - jump right in there and it would be an insane clusterfuck
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Aug 17, 2023 00:14
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I can only imagine what kooky conspiracy theories would show up if trump had a health issue in custody.
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Aug 17, 2023 00:25
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FlamingLiberal posted:I think the bigger question is how Perry and Thompson ever had that kind of support (feels like a polling outlier) Beaten a little bit but... The few remaining "rational reasonable" Republicans are always looking for someone who can pull off the same ghoulish, Draconian policies without all the concerns about "style" ( a common complaint I hear begrudgingly applies to Trump a lot). But the fact is, most of them don't care about that and actually LIKE giant rude assholes who cut to the chase and act like giant rude assholes. Like how Rush Limbaugh used to "tell it like it is" since liberals hate that. The road through the Republican primaries is littered with the bloody corpses of "up and comers" who weren't charismatic (mean) enough to make it to the finish line. I mean, poo poo, remember when Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan were GOP rock stars for 5 minutes until they finally almost crossed it? I can rattle off a lot of names like that and other posters have listed several The truth of the matter is that GOP, for the foreseeable future, is only going to reward and elect the meanest, most cruel, stupid, petty and unapologetically crass candidates in their stable. Trump is their final prototype and Rush Limbaugh and Hannity have spent decades drawing up the schematics while calling reasonable, old school Republicans weak and cowardly who weren't Big Enough Assholes to stomp out the liberal commie hordes. Frankenstein Monster, etc etc.
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Aug 17, 2023 00:37
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Main Paineframe posted:
And because Fox News has been overtly grooming him for the spot. He was on Fox 110 times in a four month period.
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Aug 17, 2023 01:11
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BiggerBoat posted:
Newt Gingrich's vision come to final form.
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Aug 17, 2023 01:21
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the year is 2033. all politicians have negative favorability with the general electorate. every politician's policy is virulently hated by their own supporters unless their image is flashed on the screen, to indicate to them that it is good https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/governor-approval-ratings-july-2023 IIRC there have been points this year where all 50 have been above water. Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 03:20 on Aug 17, 2023 |
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Aug 17, 2023 03:06
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Charlz Guybon posted:47 out of 50 governors currently have a positive approval rating. It's like how "Congress" always has abysmal approval ratings but most individual members of congress have good approval ratings among their constituents. By default anyone in office that's behaving as voters expected "should" have positive approval even in a highly partisan environment, since presumably a majority of people voted for that. But it's not that simple. The person showing you how the government is helping your community is going to be your governor (even if it's federal) or Congresspeople. (even if they voted against it.). The bad stuff is easy to blame on all those other forces keeping them from doing even more good things for you. That and negative propaganda works, and there's probably going to be lots more targeting the White House and Congress generally than there is your particular rep/governor.
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Aug 17, 2023 03:52
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Charlz Guybon posted:47 out of 50 governors currently have a positive approval rating. Everyone loves their Governor and their congressman; hates congress. The most recent NYT/Sienna poll today also had 53% of people say they would never vote for Trump, another 11% say they would probably never vote for him, a majority of people saying they dislike Joe Biden, close to half of Americans saying they wish they had a different choice, and a majority of Americans also saying they would never vote for a third party. Americans hate all presidential candidates, all potential presidential candidates, and all theoretical options for anyone who could become president. They also love their governors, but will turn on them if they decide to run for president.
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Aug 17, 2023 03:53
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Everyone loves their Governor and their congressman; hates congress. To be fair, I think most of them wonder if this is the best we can do, year after year, and they're not wrong. In a country this rich and this large, it's not unreasonable to want someone to vote for besides an 80 year old establishment driven Joe Biden and a former game show host with 91 felony charges laid on him. It's not asking for a whole lot to offer voters something better than that and, while "the lesser of two evils" feels like it's been going on forever, it seems like those choices are getting worse. I totally understand the frustration. Barrack Obama, flawed as he was, really was a generational candidate, especially in hindsight.
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Aug 17, 2023 04:06
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There were plenty of non-Biden candidates in the 2020 primaries and there are plenty of non-Trump candidates in the upcoming primaries. Republicans are increasing their support of Trump as he stacks up charges.
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Aug 17, 2023 04:24
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koolkal posted:There were plenty of non-Biden candidates in the 2020 primaries and there are plenty of non-Trump candidates in the upcoming primaries. Republicans are increasing their support of Trump as he stacks up charges. You ever wonder what’s happening over in the Martin O’Malley timeline?
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Aug 17, 2023 04:42
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BiggerBoat posted:. I totally understand the frustration. Barrack Obama, flawed as he was, really was a generational candidate, especially in hindsight.
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Aug 17, 2023 04:49
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BiggerBoat posted:To be fair, I think most of them wonder if this is the best we can do, year after year, and they're not wrong. In a country this rich and this large, it's not unreasonable to want someone to vote for besides an 80 year old establishment driven Joe Biden and a former game show host with 91 felony charges laid on him. Yeah, the funny thing is just that polling says they hate the two major party candidates, they hate any possible replacement for the two major candidates, and they all would never vote for a third party. Everyone hates every possible option. Americans really turned on third parties after 1996 and only basically started hating every major party candidate after 2016. McCain, Obama, and Romney all has positive personal approval ratings. Biden had positive approval ratings until he became President too.
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Aug 17, 2023 04:58
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Charlz Guybon posted:Obama was a great candidate but Biden has been a significantly better president in almost every way. But why is he so wildly unpopular? I know a lot of poo poo he did that I disagree with, but the stuff I care about probably isn't what the rest of America cares about. I don't live in America anymore so I don't get to hear what people say. I can imagine him being a little unpopular, but last I saw he's really unpopular. My guess was there are a lot of people waiting for him to just do stuff and then he doesn't. Or does it in a crappy way. But that doesn't separate him much from other presidents.
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Aug 17, 2023 04:59
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Charlz Guybon posted:Obama was a great candidate but Biden has been a significantly better president in almost every way. Biden is near certainly the best President in the last 50 years....
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Aug 17, 2023 05:05
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BrainDance posted:But why is he so wildly unpopular? I mean his approval is in the 40s and he got 51% in 2020, most of the disapproval is Trump supporters. There used to be presidents with 70% approval ratings because a lot of people who voted for the other party still approved of them, but that isn't happening any more.
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Aug 17, 2023 05:26
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Biden's got three major strikes against him 1.) Inflation and Covid. Mandate of Heaven stuff, even though he handled the economic issues as well as anyone could have. 2.) As far as the national media is concerned, Trump is still the protagonist of politics. See also the Blob sticking the knife in for pulling out of Afghanistan. 3.) Old. Democrats generally approve of Biden, but would really rather have Biden's policies in someone 30 years younger.
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Aug 17, 2023 05:30
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BrainDance posted:But why is he so wildly unpopular? Biden's approval rating was solidly positive until late August 2021, at which point it abruptly dropped into the mid-40s and never recovered. What happened? Well, afaik, the main political events of summer 2021 were the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, the return of mask mandates and other anti-COVID measures, and the Congressional horse-trading over how much to cut from Biden's economic agenda was in full swing. Disapproval really starts spiking on August 15 2021 (which lines up with the fall of Kabul to the Taliban and the resulting hasty evacuation) and continues to rise until Sept 4 (a few days after the withdrawal officially ends on Aug 31). Then COVID boosters start rolling out in early September, ensuring that COVID vaccination will be an ongoing issue. After that, his approval rating drops a bit further around Nov 2021, which is around when Manchin started really putting his foot down about blocking bills and single-handedly holding up much of Biden's agenda. From that point on, his approval rating holds steady in the mid-40s right up till now, aside from a dip in the summer of 2022 when inflation and price rises were at their highest.
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Aug 17, 2023 05:45
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BrainDance posted:But why is he so wildly unpopular? charisma forgives a multitude of sins my parents still love reagan despite his admin being the antichrist, because he was a paid actor Obama had weapons-grade charisma and biden can't compete
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Aug 17, 2023 06:10
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Most Americans are socialized to think “the government is bad,” “all politicians are crooks,” and “no one in power cares about me.” I don’t think it’s a big mystery why everyone hates most politicians all the time, regardless of what’s going on and regardless of the merits of their opinions.
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Aug 17, 2023 12:36
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Judgy Fucker posted:Most Americans are socialized to think “the government is bad,” “all politicians are crooks,” and “no one in power cares about me.” I don’t think it’s a big mystery why everyone hates most politicians all the time, regardless of what’s going on and regardless of the merits of their opinions. That would make more sense if people in all 50 states didn't also love their Governors and rank their congressperson 30 points higher than they rank congress as a whole. I think maybe "all national politicians are crooks" might be more accurate than "all politicians" for that. People have hated "congress" as an entity forever and Presidents have all had periods of low approval ratings, but the trend of basically hating everyone running for president, hating third parties, and hating all potential replacements is a relatively new thing - it started in 2016. Obama and McCain both had positive approval ratings. I think increased polarization probably plays the biggest role. You're never going to see Presidents getting 76% approval ratings like they did in the 40's, 50's, and 60's anymore because approval of the other party is basically always under 10% now. There's definitely something more too it than that, though. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:01 on Aug 17, 2023 |
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Aug 17, 2023 13:53
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That would make more sense if people in all 50 states didn't also love their Governors and rank their congressperson 30 points higher than they rank congress as a whole. Well yeah, I thought it went without saying that “the person I voted for is one of the good ones” or “they’re one of us, they’re not the problem” was the other half of the discrepancy.
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Aug 17, 2023 13:55
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https://twitter.com/ArtsJournalNews/status/1691549370309574766 I believe that deplatforming right wing commentators has a 100% success rate so far?
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Aug 17, 2023 14:18
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/ArtsJournalNews/status/1691549370309574766 That is a biography about Tucker written by someone else. When Tucker writes a book, I am sure that it will hit the right-wing welfare circuit and sell many copies.
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Aug 17, 2023 14:28
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That would make more sense if people in all 50 states didn't also love their Governors and rank their congressperson 30 points higher than they rank congress as a whole. I have to wonder, though - when you do aggregate-level polling like this, how much is it that everybody is grumpy and hates everything now, versus that most people are pretty much the same but some percentage, 10-20% maybe, have just kinda snapped, between Trump and the pandemic, and are borderline incapable of positivity, and will just always respond to any question about any politician (or pretty much anything) with "gently caress that guy," until the end of time (or at least for several more years). So that's a possible limitation. I mean, this kind of matches my anecdotal experience. National-level trauma has large effects, but they're not evenly distributed. Especially not in a country where everything else is already unevenly distributed. (And tbf the "gently caress that guy"-stopped-clock caucus was probably at least 5% of the pre-escalator electorate.) What 2020 and 2022 have suggested though is that, contrary to pre-2016 belief, "gently caress that guy" appears to be a bigger motivator than "eh, that guy is pretty good, I guess" ever was, and now we are getting high turnout in any election with any national resonance. Although I find the relentless negativity on social media and in the press exhausting and overwrought, it's probably better than being in a situation like the 90s, where a large minority of the population is as hosed as ever, but everybody else has decided everything is great and they love the President. Because at least people recognize there are problems to fixed, even if we can't get on the same page about what the problems are or how to fix them.
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Aug 17, 2023 14:31
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zoux posted:I believe that deplatforming right wing commentators has a 100% success rate so far? (  )e: oh saw Leon's clarification  Still, at least nobody watches his Twitter bullshit.* BTW, if anybody doesn't know why this is - I just learned fairly recently - the reason the Fox News logo is animated is because people leave it on all day and the logo might burn into some TVs otherwise. I wanted to put a gif of the logo but somehow there don't seem to be any available. (Don't google "fox news logo gif" on GIS unless you want to see some cringe-rear end stuff.) e2: Oh, I can't help myself.  [spoiler]  (raise your hand if you thought that one was going to say something else for a second ✋🏻) Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 14:47 on Aug 17, 2023 |
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Aug 17, 2023 14:33
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