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Zamujasa posted:I doubt we'll see a party split as much as a lot of discontent, but ultimately falling in line. I can see turnout being depressed but the concept of an actual, literal party split seems impossible. In previous periods I'd agree and say they'd just memoryhole the thing like they did with W after he left office, but there are a whole lot more glassy-eyed true-believing psychopaths in the party now how genuinely believe Trump was sent by god to save the nation. Can't say, yet, if the proportion of them is enough to shatter the party but hoo boy, I'm betting it's close.
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Aug 16, 2023 19:35
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SpannerX posted:Yup, because it's Duran Duran.  
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Aug 16, 2023 19:38
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Captain_Maclaine posted:In previous periods I'd agree and say they'd just memoryhole the thing like they did with W after he left office, but there are a whole lot more glassy-eyed true-believing psychopaths in the party now how genuinely believe Trump was sent by god to save the nation. Can't say, yet, if the proportion of them is enough to shatter the party but hoo boy, I'm betting it's close. The sheer amount of money and control at the top is what makes me doubtful. The rank and file people might be Trump-poisoned idiots but there's a lot of money at the top interested in keeping Rs together. There's also a lot of money and interest in having a functional Republican party because of their deregulatory and grifting effects on government. The comedy option is that the party semi-splits with the Trumpers forming their own and the Democrats going "oh, hey, we're a big tent, let's invite the reasonable Republicans"  
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Aug 16, 2023 19:39
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Zamujasa posted:
Isn't this already happening?
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Aug 16, 2023 19:41
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Dolash posted:Six foot twenty fuckin killing for fun.
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Aug 16, 2023 19:42
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Isn't this already happening? Yeah, see also how they slobbered all over Liz Cheney during the select committee hearings.
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Aug 16, 2023 19:44
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Zamujasa posted:I doubt we'll see a party split as much as a lot of discontent, but ultimately falling in line. I can see turnout being depressed but the concept of an actual, literal party split seems impossible. “A big chunk of our voters are staying home in every election because they can’t stand what we are offering but they don’t know where else to go” is the Democrats 1980-1990. Very nonzero chance the 2024 GOP nominee will be campaigning from jail or from house arrest and there is no acceptable mechanism to replace him and he will never resign. If he loses get ready for the 2028 cycle where this repeats. 1/3 of the party won’t vote for anyone else, 1/6 of the party won’t vote for him, everyone else in serious denial.
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Aug 16, 2023 19:46
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Cimber posted:https://twitter.com/acnewsitics/status/1691272434098548736 6'1, 280 Edit: For comparison, here is me at 6'3" and ~250 last year  If he weighs less than me in that picture, I'll donate $50 to planned parenthood 
KillHour fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 19:49
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Captain_Maclaine posted:In previous periods I'd agree and say they'd just memoryhole the thing like they did with W after he left office, but there are a whole lot more glassy-eyed true-believing psychopaths in the party now how genuinely believe Trump was sent by god to save the nation. Can't say, yet, if the proportion of them is enough to shatter the party but hoo boy, I'm betting it's close. Those people are the first to fall in line with whatever the post-Trump zeitgeist is. A party split is practically unthinkable. If Trump were 15 years younger or had actually built a stable of competent people around himself of people to carry on the “movement” then it may be more likely, but he just literally doesn’t have time to do that. And the substancelessness of the “movement” to begin with keeps it from attracting anyone substantial who will stick around.
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Aug 16, 2023 19:53
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https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1691890003171811706
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Aug 16, 2023 20:12
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An added benefit of having Trump take a mugshot is that it's going to absolutely piss off every cop involved in the process. They're probably going to be apologizing to Trump profusely for having to do it.
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Aug 16, 2023 20:13
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The day before Super Tuesday lol
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Aug 16, 2023 20:14
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Charliegrs posted:An added benefit of having Trump take a mugshot is that it's going to absolutely piss off every cop involved in the process. They're probably going to be apologizing to Trump profusely for having to do it. They may actually come to him with tears in their eyes. Big, strong cops like you wouldn't believe
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Aug 16, 2023 20:15
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Sir. They shouldn't be doing this to my favorite president, you.
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Aug 16, 2023 20:26
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Biggest question is if he does his 80s corporate power glare bullshit in the picture, or pull a Tom Delay and smile so it can't be used in ads against him.
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Aug 16, 2023 20:34
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I think we can conclusively say 6'1", unless Obama's is being inflated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...te-comparisons/
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Aug 16, 2023 20:43
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Six foot one way, two foot the other, and he weighs three hundred pounds. Coat so big he couldn't pay the tailor, and it only goes half way round. "Kingdom Coming", Henry Clay Work, 1862. You do not want to look up the rest of the lyrics (it's essentially a pro-Union, abolitionist minstrel song. if you've seen Ken Burns' The Civil War, an instrumental version is used as a sort of theme for US Grant).
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Aug 16, 2023 20:59
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He's gonna sue the prison for posting false stats if and when they post under 6' and 300+ lbs.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:12
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Going back to the RICO fine vs incarceration issue, I feel like if you're dealing with criminal bosses who are moving hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, and the law allows you to fine them up to 300% what they made through their crimes, a $25k cap otherwise feels insanely low. So I'm wondering if the idea isn't that if you did racketeering for profit they'll take all of your money, but if you did it for other reasons (Say to attempt the subversion of American democracy) the fines are not really the intended remedy, but rather hard time is.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:20
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Captain_Maclaine posted:In previous periods I'd agree and say they'd just memoryhole the thing like they did with W after he left office, but there are a whole lot more glassy-eyed true-believing psychopaths in the party now how genuinely believe Trump was sent by god to save the nation. Can't say, yet, if the proportion of them is enough to shatter the party but hoo boy, I'm betting it's close. Nah, you've got it backwards. The boring businessman types who want to go back to McCains and Romneys are the ones who're going to fall into line, just like they have for the last eight years. I can't see a party split being likely at this point. With so much of the GOP base going full MAGA, there's really no room for the pre-escalator Republicans to push back. Once Trump's out, there's going to be one hell of a fight over the heir apparent role, but the MAGAs so completely dominate Republican primaries right now that I can't see an actual ideological split. The moderates will stay quiet and hope incumbency keeps them in their seats, and then retire when they get sick of it.
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Aug 16, 2023 21:37
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https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1691911341198496189
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Aug 16, 2023 21:44
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What happens if the court imposes a fine and he reuses to pay it? (Not just doesn't pay it, troots out that he'll never pay it)
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Aug 16, 2023 22:47
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FizFashizzle posted:Biggest question is if he does his 80s corporate power glare bullshit in the picture, or pull a Tom Delay and smile so it can't be used in ads against him. Does Trump smile? His face seems to do everything else but smile.
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Aug 16, 2023 22:53
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The Lone Badger posted:What happens if the court imposes a fine and he reuses to pay it? The court shows up with an order for his bank and they say yes sir and pay it. Sounds like a great way to get any special arrangement revoked and off to jail as well. Reminder: Trump is surrounded at all times by sworn LEOs. He is complying with any legal court orders to show up somewhere or report somewhere because he can no longer travel independently. They are with him 24/7.
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Aug 16, 2023 22:54
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:The court shows up with an order for his bank and they say yes sir and pay it. lol what
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Aug 16, 2023 22:56
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Tatsuta Age posted:lol what Secret Service agents.
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Aug 16, 2023 22:58
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so your theory is the secret servixe is gonna go "sorry sir you're late for court, get out of bed!" is that really how it works
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Aug 16, 2023 22:59
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Zamujasa posted:The sheer amount of money and control at the top is what makes me doubtful. The rank and file people might be Trump-poisoned idiots but there's a lot of money at the top interested in keeping Rs together. Said money and control couldn’t stop Trump from being the nominee in 2016, 2020, or now in 2024, so I have serious doubts that they have any ability to keep the party together in 2028. Back when Fox News was the main info source for the GOP, they could lead that tiger, but now that social media has decided it makes a profit from exacerbating the worst fear and anger from people, the Screeching White Hot Ball Of Rage is all that 30% of them are ever going to vote for.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:03
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Ms Adequate posted:Going back to the RICO fine vs incarceration issue, I feel like if you're dealing with criminal bosses who are moving hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, and the law allows you to fine them up to 300% what they made through their crimes, a $25k cap otherwise feels insanely low. So I'm wondering if the idea isn't that if you did racketeering for profit they'll take all of your money, but if you did it for other reasons (Say to attempt the subversion of American democracy) the fines are not really the intended remedy, but rather hard time is. “a fine that does not exceed the greater of $25,000.00 or three times the amount of any pecuniary value gained by him or her from such violation.” So the $25K only applies if the monetary damage is quite low.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:14
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Customary IANAL; I can’t remember which podcast exactly I heard it from the past few days, but it was either the lawyers they had on 538 or one of the heads on opening arguments mentioned that sentencing guidelines will spit out different enhancements depending on the nuances of culpability and position in the corrupt organization. I’m wondering/asking/suggesting I suppose that the possibility of a fine in lieu of time served is something that the guidelines would not spit out for the person situated at the center of the org, though maybe someone much lower level. But, again, I’m musing from ignorance basically. You’d think surely not would the kingpin of a racket just get a slap on the wrist from a conviction, but I’m learning new stuff every day so who knows.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:24
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Tatsuta Age posted:so your theory is the secret servixe is gonna go "sorry sir you're late for court, get out of bed!" Yeah they work for the Feds not Donald Trump personally it’s not the loving Varangian Guard.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:34
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skeleton warrior posted:Said money and control couldn’t stop Trump from being the nominee in 2016, 2020, or now in 2024, so I have serious doubts that they have any ability to keep the party together in 2028. Back when Fox News was the main info source for the GOP, they could lead that tiger, but now that social media has decided it makes a profit from exacerbating the worst fear and anger from people, the Screeching White Hot Ball Of Rage is all that 30% of them are ever going to vote for. When Trump loses again the party will once again find an external scapegoat (Biden weaponized Justice Department) instead of the needed assessment that he is a very bad candidate and very bad President who got super lucky running against someone very very unpopular eight years ago. Usually a party loses and says “what went wrong and what can we do better” “Trump didn’t actually lose” is the position of a huge chunk of the party and “First priority is revenge for 2020” is the position of another huge chunk. The GOP is hyped to run Jimmy Carter in 1984 here. And when that fails it’s going to be Carter ‘88 and Carter ‘92 until the fever breaks and someone gets momentum by going “guys we need to stop this and get sane again.” In the meantime the Supreme Court will continue to issue insane rulings that will mightily piss off vast sectors of the country thus feeding the desire for reform/change.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:42
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So would Trump ever plead the fifth or is he too proud and will have a Sideshow Bob "attempted murder" moment?
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Aug 16, 2023 23:48
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Tatsuta Age posted:so your theory is the secret servixe is gonna go "sorry sir you're late for court, get out of bed!" I don't think they are supposed to do that at their own initiative, but they do have to obey a court order, and the judge knows they are always around and how to contact them. I doubt this has actually happened, but the point is that if trump tries playing cute and missing appointments, the judge has a really easy way to enforce compliance, everyone knows this, and so it isn't tested.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:49
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The Secret Service officers are not judicial bailiffs. They are not there to ensure Trump attends his court proceedings.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:55
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With all the speculation surrounding height and weight, T seems our best contender yet to match The Triumph of the Whale:C Lamb posted:... Being that T does not drink alcohol, that part would have to be rewritten for ketchup.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:55
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Nitrousoxide posted:The Secret Service officers are not judicial bailiffs. They are not there to ensure Trump attends his court proceedings. No, but they are law officers and if a judge hands them an order saying "Trump needs to be at the courthouse at 9 AM on the dot", they have to make sure he's there. In cuffs if need be.
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Aug 17, 2023 00:16
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Cimber posted:No, but they are law officers and if a judge hands them an order saying "Trump needs to be at the courthouse at 9 AM on the dot", they have to make sure he's there. In cuffs if need be. that's not how any of this works, like, at all? The court wouldn't even attempt to force the secret service to force a protectee to go anywhere or do anything. That's not... what they're for?
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Aug 17, 2023 00:26
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smackfu posted:“a fine that does not exceed the greater of $25,000.00 or three times the amount of any pecuniary value gained by him or her from such violation.” That's what I was trying to get at - that 25k limit is so low compared to the sorts of figures you'd expect to see in a mob case or big drugs bust that it seems out of whack. If the Donbot gets fined $15,000,000 because he made 5 mil from running the Robot Mafia, that makes fining some schmuck who did one job for them $25,000 look kinda bizarrely low in comparison. But now that I'm more awake I'm not entirely sure what the point I was actually trying to drive at with that post was e; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bjA9lm8tJU Holy poo poo nevermind mycrimes.txt, Roger Stone is on mycrimes.MPEG e2; I have no idea if Ari's conclusions and commentary are worth anything but the Stone video itself is 
Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 00:32 on Aug 17, 2023 |
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Aug 17, 2023 00:26
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Madkal posted:So would Trump ever plead the fifth or is he too proud and will have a Sideshow Bob "attempted murder" moment?
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Aug 17, 2023 00:31
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