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Not So Fast posted:Why would Russia seize ships leaving Ukraine? They're searching for weapons being shipped to Ukraine, so they're not going to try it on ships going the other way. The justification might be, for example, that explosives coming from third countries were used for the first attack on the Kerch bridge. They also claimed (without evidence) that some ships leaving Odessa were used in some capacity for naval drone attacks. The reality is that they can come up with a whole bunch of justifications, the actual goal would still be to spite Ukraine and make sure that Russia can continue to exploit the food security issue to score points with some governments in the Global South.
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Aug 18, 2023 00:05
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Cocaine Bear posted:Genocide denying or trolling. Either way, boot em. ^^ whoever (rigel mostly?) is modding in here should be actually reading the discussion in here and not just hitting buttons straight from the report forum with no context because holy gently caress what you're doing currently is not working Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Aug 18, 2023 |
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Aug 18, 2023 00:36
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Greetings. I'd like to clarify a few things after the somewhat contentious debate we've had over the last day. Genocide denial is not ipso facto against D&D's rules. This is so that refutations of denial claims can be posted, serving D&D's educational purpose and providing information that can be used elsewhere against genocide deniers. However, we are sensitive to the fact that refuting such claims is arduous and takes longer than making the claims themselves. This is why rule I.A.3 (don't repeat a point that has been rebutted) exists, so that someone cannot force everyone else to rebut their claims again. One user informed me that, indeed, what MikeC was claiming about the definition of genocide and how it applies to the Russo-Ukrainian War has already been discussed in the thread, and I haven't investigated that matter yet, as I'm not a regular reader. But if so that would been additional cause for punishment, though he is already on a 24-hour ramped probation for hostility. In cases where you believe an instance of genocide denial or other argument is so heinous it should not appear anywhere on SA at all, that is beyond the scope of D&D's rules and moderation and should be reported to the admins. Regardless, I'd like to remind everyone that when responding to rulebreaking posts, you are not exempt from the rules yourself, and it is better to ignore and report them. We'll be giving clemency due to the sheer number of posts violating this leading some to some being confused, but this is something to keep in mind moving forward. If anyone has questions about our moderating policies, further commentary on the incident, or advice for me, please PM me. I always read, seriously consider, and respond to PMs if needed. In the thread itself, please allow discussion to return to the war rather than the forums. Thank you.
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Aug 18, 2023 01:03
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U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goalUkraine’s forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations. posted:U.S. officials said the Pentagon recommended multiple times that Ukraine concentrate a large mass of forces on a single breakthrough point. Though Ukraine opted for a different strategy, officials said it was Kyiv’s call to make given the profound sacrifice Ukrainian troops were making on the battlefield. posted:U.S. officials said Washington was still open to Kyiv surprising skeptics and overcoming the odds. One defense official said it is possible that Ukraine could buck historical norms and continue the counteroffensive through the winter, when everything including keeping soldiers warm and stocked with food and ammunition becomes much more difficult. posted:Noteworthy break of news just now.
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Aug 18, 2023 01:14
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@Koos It's also an option to pm you (or whichever mod has jurisdiction over this thread) when a poster might not be breaking the rules in a single post in isolation, but across multiple posts which demonstrates a pattern of behaviour right? Because IIRC there's a word limit in the Report field, so if/when a poster isn't responding to arguments across multiple pages/just repeating themselves that's always an option right? Because presumably without context a specific post in isolation might not rise to rulebreaking but the aggregate sum of the contents across multiple posts might? Maybe that's a contributing factor here where maybe posters are reporting the posts but without context no action could be taken? (I ask instead of DM'ing for the benefit of other posters so everyone knows of a potential valid alternative avenue for redress)
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Aug 18, 2023 01:21
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Raenir Salazar posted:@Koos It's also an option to pm you (or whichever mod has jurisdiction over this thread) when a poster might not be breaking the rules in a single post in isolation, but across multiple posts which demonstrates a pattern of behaviour right? Because IIRC there's a word limit in the Report field, so if/when a poster isn't responding to arguments across multiple pages/just repeating themselves that's always an option right? Because presumably without context a specific post in isolation might not rise to rulebreaking but the aggregate sum of the contents across multiple posts might? Maybe that's a contributing factor here where maybe posters are reporting the posts but without context no action could be taken? Yes, and I would encourage it. Though report text length is longer than it used to be as well, and can hold several links.
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Aug 18, 2023 01:27
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What happens next exactly if this doesn't work out? Do they re-group until next Spring for another offensive?
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Aug 18, 2023 01:47
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RockWhisperer posted:U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal That article is strange. Last fall/winter the Ukrainians had been talking about trying to take Tokmak this summer, which they regarded as a huge deal as it would severely disrupt Russian supply lines. Getting past Tokmak to within "miles" of Melitopol would essentially bring the entire land route to Crimea under artillery fire, which I thought was the main objective of the offensive. I guess if you were expecting Ukraine to win the war this summer it is failure, but was anyone realistically expecting that? Crosby B. Alfred posted:What happens next exactly if this doesn't work out? Do they re-group until next Spring for another offensive? Depends on what you mean by doesn't work out. Assuming incremental gains but they don't get to Tokmak, they'll probably keep pressuring the lines to make it harder to rebuild mine fields and then push again once they're recovered and have replenished artillery. Basically, you keep pushing them slowly back until they break. saratoga fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Aug 18, 2023 |
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Aug 18, 2023 01:48
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:What happens next exactly if this doesn't work out? Do they re-group until next Spring for another offensive? Sure. That's always been the assumption. It's not like this is the only counter-offensive they're allowed to make.
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Aug 18, 2023 01:51
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saratoga posted:I guess if you were expecting Ukraine to win the war this summer it is failure, but was anyone realistically expecting that? yeah when i see a major paper has suddenly gotten a classified intelligence assessment and is pushing a very specific viewpoint through it, a major question is "who told them this and why"
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Aug 18, 2023 02:14
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eke out posted:yeah when i see a major paper has suddenly gotten a classified intelligence assessment and is pushing a very specific viewpoint through it, a major question is "who told them this and why" It's called managing expectations. If someone was expecting that Ukrainians will be fighting the Crimea by September or swimming in the Azov or something, they now have a more realistic measure stick to compare the advance to. Given that there is an election coming up, doing this now can reduce political pressure later when the operations really starts to wind down due to general Mud.
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Aug 18, 2023 03:48
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saratoga posted:That article is strange. Last fall/winter the Ukrainians had been talking about trying to take Tokmak this summer, which they regarded as a huge deal as it would severely disrupt Russian supply lines. Getting past Tokmak to within "miles" of Melitopol would essentially bring the entire land route to Crimea under artillery fire, which I thought was the main objective of the offensive. The words "several miles" are doing a lot of work there. I wonder how close they are thinking because several miles to Melitopol sounds like big progress to me.
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Aug 18, 2023 03:49
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So Ruble question, it's popped back in the news again after moving to 100USD, is the consensus that their central bank has run out of reserves to prop it up? Looking at charts since the invasions major fluctuations it seems to have been on a pretty stead trajectory. I know it's heavily controlled so that the exchange rate is questionable and how much does the exchange rate matter for their economy at this stage?
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Aug 18, 2023 04:09
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Scapegoat posted:So Ruble question, it's popped back in the news again after moving to 100USD, is the consensus that their central bank has run out of reserves to prop it up? Looking at charts since the invasions major fluctuations it seems to have been on a pretty stead trajectory. I know it's heavily controlled so that the exchange rate is questionable and how much does the exchange rate matter for their economy at this stage? It's back down to 95-ish. They've convinced businesses to sell more dollars locally without making it into a legal requirement for now, so that's going to keep it at that level for a bit.
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Aug 18, 2023 04:12
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Scapegoat posted:So Ruble question, it's popped back in the news again after moving to 100USD, is the consensus that their central bank has run out of reserves to prop it up? Looking at charts since the invasions major fluctuations it seems to have been on a pretty stead trajectory. I know it's heavily controlled so that the exchange rate is questionable and how much does the exchange rate matter for their economy at this stage? They're not making as much money as they were from oil while also needing to import a lot more goods to keep the war going: quote:Instead of reflecting the aggregated opinions of speculators, the rouble swings according to the textbook economic model, reflecting the relative strength of exports (which earn foreign currency) and imports (which must be paid for with these earnings). https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/08/14/russia-will-struggle-to-cope-with-a-sinking-rouble
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Aug 18, 2023 04:31
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RockWhisperer posted:U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal Ukraine choosing to go against US advice on massing forces is interesting. Of course the decision should come down to those commanders on the ground, but generally I do not see US planners being to aggressive in the sense that they would risk gambling a large portion of their or Ukrainian combat power unless it was worth it. It seems like the Ukrainians are going for infiltration and the bite & hold strategy, which is not a bad call considering they probably want to try and maintain the initiative well into the winter.
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Aug 18, 2023 06:26
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Scapegoat posted:So Ruble question, it's popped back in the news again after moving to 100USD, is the consensus that their central bank has run out of reserves to prop it up? Looking at charts since the invasions major fluctuations it seems to have been on a pretty stead trajectory. I know it's heavily controlled so that the exchange rate is questionable and how much does the exchange rate matter for their economy at this stage? Somebody posted this earlier, seems like their gold reserves are at an all time (well, post 2000 at least) high. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves
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Aug 18, 2023 06:27
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Is there a chart version of the media literacy thread? That y-axis, lol.
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Aug 18, 2023 06:38
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Freudian slippers fucked around with this message at 07:00 on Aug 18, 2023 |
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Aug 18, 2023 06:54
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Weka posted:Somebody posted this earlier, seems like their gold reserves are at an all time (well, post 2000 at least) high. Do note that this is a bar chart not starting at 0. The difference in the bars looks massive but the actual increase is about 1-1.5%.
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Aug 18, 2023 07:38
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Griefor posted:Do note that this is a bar chart not starting at 0. The difference in the bars looks massive but the actual increase is about 1-1.5%. I think the point is that Russia hasn't had to use its reserves yet to prop up the ruble. Here's an expanded chart from the same website. 
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Aug 18, 2023 07:46
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In other news the US has committed to approving transfers of F-16s to Ukraine as soon as training of Ukrainian pilots is complete. Denmark and the Netherlands are currently training pilots, and this in theory removes the only legal barrier to those two countries sending planes from their own inventories back along with the pilots. The only remaining obstacle I can think of at this point is how quickly the logistics pipeline to keep the planes in the air can be established.
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Aug 18, 2023 08:19
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Discendo Vox posted:To paraphrase, because we believe in the meaning of words, and they don't. By giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of the subject, and the discussion. They seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate, confuse and disconcert. They are amusing themselves; the thread, its subject, and its participants are a toy. The IK and mods have given them the right to play. You can turn this on its head and repeat things back at them in a funny voice, insult and ridicule them. Genocide deniers (I'm using this collectively because it's not just Ukraine, in all cases Uighurs and several more current and historic tragedies are in the package) are dumb as poo poo and will fume and hateread the thread but stop posting and make the space readable, if dropping in from time to time to own the shitlibs Funny news that I haven't seen discussed: https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/08/17/rossiya-ne-mozhet-poluchit-39-mlrd-za-prodannuyu-v-indiyu-neft-a52317 India bought 39 billion dollars worth of russian oil but is unable to transfer dollars due to adhering to sanctions and trying to give Russia rupees, except there's nothing to buy for them Secondly, today was the first night that all Moscow airports got closed due to.a drone attack. Disrupting civilian air travel can be a bloodless but effective way to disrupt normal life in the capital https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/08/18/v-moskve-zakrili-vse-aeroporti-iz-za-ataki-bespilotnika-a52366
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Aug 18, 2023 08:57
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Not So Fast posted:I think the point is that Russia hasn't had to use its reserves yet to prop up the ruble. Here's an expanded chart from the same website. Well reserves are not all gold. That "wealth fund" they keep talking about as running out this year probably has some other types of reserves. I find it dissapointing that economists have no clue on how much they have left in general though.
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Aug 18, 2023 09:00
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:Well reserves are not all gold. That "wealth fund" they keep talking about as running out this year probably has some other types of reserves. I find it dissapointing that economists have no clue on how much they have left in general though. I was not able to find the data on the ministry of finance's website, this was the status in December: https://twitter.com/Segozavr/status/1602323441616658433 By the end of spring, 10 billion euros remained with the rest being yuan and gold. At this point the euros are probably gone
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Aug 18, 2023 09:26
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saratoga posted:I guess if you were expecting Ukraine to win the war this summer it is failure, but was anyone realistically expecting that? Not really (I'm sure at our most optimistic we hoped they would pull that off, but 'attack is more difficult than defense' is not exactly an advanced military concept known only to the most studious of Clausewitz's followers) but the people who take issue with NATO support of Ukraine have lately been loving to insist that those who support Ukraine do actually believe this, and that Ukraine falling short is going to result in either the total collapse of their military power or a massive revocation of Western support. They very much love acting as if Ukraine managing to last longer than like 72 hours was entirely within Russia's expectations and that Ukrainian military prospects have been massively overhyped by western propagandists.
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Aug 18, 2023 10:12
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Somaen posted:Funny news that I haven't seen discussed: What's weird is Russia sticking to USD instead of getting INR. All those weirdos that preach USD death as global exchange currency constantly shout dumb articles "x will sell y for Yuan/Rupees/whatever" but at the end it's still green bills with dead presidents everywhere.
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Aug 18, 2023 10:18
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You find a mix with whom is criticising the counter offensive and why. Some make good points (Michael Koffman), but most I think use it to discredit/attack their oppenents (Republicans / Democrats), and either have no idea of what is actually going on their or simply do not care (or both). When you see, hear, or read these criticisms it is important to look at the credentials of those giving them.
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Aug 18, 2023 10:21
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Not So Fast posted:I think the point is that Russia hasn't had to use its reserves yet to prop up the ruble. Here's an expanded chart from the same website. Which won't be bought with Rubles because this is the opposite of what Russia is trying to do. Gold that is sold on the market will have payments mostly in another currency because anyone smart knows the Ruble is unstable atm. Dollar/Yuen/Euro etc will then be used to buy Rubles back.Two transactions makes a loss for Russia. When you are dumping something quick, in this case gold, people know that they can get a good deal. Dumping stuff also causes something to devalue so you won't get the full value of it. This amount of gold gets you a one time (small) bail out. Assuming full value of current gold prices, $147B to prop up a $1.7 TRILLION GDP is not a lot. Dumping gold is in the territory of you are turbo hosed. Edit - Russia is also ordering it's big companies and Oligarchs to deplete their foreign reserves to buy Rubles which isn't a good sign. Tai fucked around with this message at 11:38 on Aug 18, 2023 |
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Aug 18, 2023 11:36
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Weka posted:Somebody posted this earlier, seems like their gold reserves are at an all time (well, post 2000 at least) high. This graph is very very very disingenuous. The Y axis for anyone who looks at it represents barely a 1% increase but if you set the scale without starting from 0 and/or very small increases, you can manipluate anything to look to be a massive jump. This is only fools 6 year olds.
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Aug 18, 2023 11:46
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Ms Adequate posted:Not really (I'm sure at our most optimistic we hoped they would pull that off, but 'attack is more difficult than defense' is not exactly an advanced military concept known only to the most studious of Clausewitz's followers) but the people who take issue with NATO support of Ukraine have lately been loving to insist that those who support Ukraine do actually believe this, and that Ukraine falling short is going to result in either the total collapse of their military power or a massive revocation of Western support. I agree that this was the realistic view (and shared by pretty much everyone in this thread IIRC), but there are a lot of folks who get so focused on breaking news that they overestimate the chances of things to change rapidly for better or worse.
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Aug 18, 2023 12:39
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Dick Ripple posted:Ukraine choosing to go against US advice on massing forces is interesting. Of course the decision should come down to those commanders on the ground, but generally I do not see US planners being to aggressive in the sense that they would risk gambling a large portion of their or Ukrainian combat power unless it was worth it. I wasn’t a general, but as a grunt US doctrine seemed to heavily emphasis risk mitigation so I’d tend to agree. On the same token I wonder if our unmatched combined arms capabilities color some of how US staff level folks would view this kind of thing
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Aug 18, 2023 12:46
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EasilyConfused posted:I agree that this was the realistic view (and shared by pretty much everyone in this thread IIRC), but there are a lot of folks who get so focused on breaking news that they overestimate the chances of things to change rapidly for better or worse. That's a fair point, although I suppose the counter would be that in the very early hours of the war that wasn't an entirely unfair belief. Like, things might have gone differently if Russia had hit an early objective like taking Antonov Airport, or they had managed to capture Zelensky. But once the initial strikes were repelled and Ukraine got their defense stiffened, it was always clear that the only way the war ends in a hurry was if Putin decided it did, and he clearly wasn't about to order that.
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Aug 18, 2023 14:29
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Russia recruited operatives online to target weapons crossing Poland https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/18/ukraine-weapons-sabotage-gru-poland/ An interesting WaPo article about Russia trying to recruit operatives in Poland for sabotage of the weapons pipeline and assassinations. It failed because Ukrainian refugees looking for work sounded the alarm. quote:The tasks were menial — posting fliers or hanging signs in public spaces — and the pay meager. But for a handful of refugees from eastern Ukraine, the promise of quick cash was too good to pass up. Unfortunately refugees are also among the arrested. quote:The case also has political sensitivities for Warsaw, where officials have not publicly acknowledged that 12 Ukrainian refugees are among those in custody, anxious to avoid the backlash Russia likely intended. Others arrested include one Russian and three citizens of Belarus. Props to Poland and the intelligence agencies nipping this in the bud, hopefully.
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Aug 18, 2023 15:09
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i am a moron posted:I wasn’t a general, but as a grunt US doctrine seemed to heavily emphasis risk mitigation so I’d tend to agree. On the same token I wonder if our unmatched combined arms capabilities color some of how US staff level folks would view this kind of thing We have the 2 largest air forces in the world (the actual AF, then all the USN aircraft beyond that), and the army’s mountain of On the flipside, there’s a reason that the jokes like “airsoft team full of veterans can’t win vs local cosplayers without calling in air support” came into being 
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Aug 18, 2023 15:36
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A couple days ago people noticed posters with "Wagner, we're here" in southern Poland (Kraków and Katowice). 2 dudes got 500k RUB for distribution of those posters. They will probably also spend next decade in prison for something so dumb...
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Aug 18, 2023 15:44
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alex314 posted:A couple days ago people noticed posters with "Wagner, we're here" in southern Poland (Kraków and Katowice). 2 dudes got 500k RUB for distribution of those posters. They will probably also spend next decade in prison for something so dumb... For hanging posters?
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Aug 18, 2023 15:46
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Rinkles posted:For hanging posters? For when permabans just aren't enough.
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Aug 18, 2023 15:48
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Rust Martialis posted:For when permabans just aren't enough. 
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Aug 18, 2023 15:51
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Rinkles posted:For hanging posters? Acting as agents of foreign power and promoting terrorist organisation. They also got paid for those things, so no "we're just trolling" defense, that would work on some dead anime forum.
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Aug 18, 2023 16:02
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