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Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


Raskolnikov38 posted:

stop trying to sell the B-1R concept boeing!!!

b-1r. b-oner?

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KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

gradenko_2000 posted:

this is just the Arkbird from Ace Combat

Mobius One is gonna shoot down the Ghost of Kiev

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

The Oldest Man posted:

This requires giving Lockheed Martin or someone money though and then hoping you get a functional weapons system out of the other end before the war is over so good luck with that

there's no need for a weapon system, you launch the same rocket with the same payload as every time you're launching a satellite, but instead of the "satellite" having a bunch of sollar arrays and antennae it's just the rocket bit (said ball of iron) that collides with the target, destroying it e: hell in a pinch you can just launch one of the normal satellites being scheduled for launch, it's gonna collide all the same

america has had this capability for like 60 years, but if they tried using it, so has russia, china, india, etc, and as soon the first satellite is destroyed, all the others will be too in short order, which creates the problem of all the interesting orbits being full of untrackable loose nuts and bolts flying around at stupid speeds forevermore. it's not going to be used outside like last ditch attempts, but at that point nukes are also in the game so who cares

Truga has issued a correction as of 18:10 on Aug 24, 2023

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The Oldest Man posted:

This requires giving Lockheed Martin or someone money though and then hoping you get a functional weapons system out of the other end before the war is over so good luck with that

the x-37 seems to actually work well.


but i just can’t imagine a direct conflict between the USA and China that doesn’t escalate to strategic weapons. how else could the US win?


now doing a Ukraine 2.0 with Taiwan where technically the US isn’t at war but helping, maybe things can stay limited…but also it seems impossible for Taiwan to hold out long enough for a Lend-Lease strategy to work

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

But yeah, the point is the US had spy satellites and were still constantly blindsided by the Soviets breaking out into the open ocean, or misinterpreted where they were going, or why - Cuba provides an example of all three - it's no more a solution now then it was then. Probably less so, because as noted, every other institutional skill or capability has atrophied.

It doesn't really matter where China's fleet is for a cross-strait confrontation. By the time someone notices they've left port they're in the battle area and the American fleet is, what, days away assuming they depart Yokosuka? Many more days still from Pearl?

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Once you start a satellite war exchange, it will basically make most commercial satellites unusable, so you need to build new 5g 6g 7g infrastructure inside the atmosphere to communicate.

I don't think China will initiate the satellite war, they are planning to launch their version of Starlink.

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Trabisnikof posted:

the x-37 seems to actually work well.


but i just can’t imagine a direct conflict between the USA and China that doesn’t escalate to strategic weapons. how else could the US win?


now doing a Ukraine 2.0 with Taiwan where technically the US isn’t at war but helping, maybe things can stay limited…but also it seems impossible for Taiwan to hold out long enough for a Lend-Lease strategy to work

Oh yeah no with in a half hour of our first carrier loss, or shooting down of our stealth bombers the nukes will be in the air because if we can't have it, no one can

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Trabisnikof posted:

now doing a Ukraine 2.0 with Taiwan where technically the US isn’t at war but helping, maybe things can stay limited…but also it seems impossible for Taiwan to hold out long enough for a Lend-Lease strategy to work

Well yeah, because the island would just be blockaded and capitulate in, what, a week?

They're not going to eat boot leather for the sake of American control of semiconductors.

KomradeX posted:

Oh yeah no with in a half hour of our first carrier loss, or shooting down of our stealth bombers the nukes will be in the air because if we can't have it, no one can

This imo is why America is dangerous. If you take Ukraine as an example, the American public would be baying for blood the first time casualty reports of entire battalions lost in a day come home. America got too high on their own myths of invincibility, and for whatever reason (genuinely curious) they seem to have a particularly fragile national ego.

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

It's impossible to explain to someone with a sovereign.

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

Frosted Flake posted:

for whatever reason (genuinely curious) they seem to have a particularly fragile national ego.

thats just because of our famously large american penises



so huge we need giant trucks to haul them everywhere

Turtle Sandbox
Dec 31, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Frosted Flake posted:

Well yeah, because the island would just be blockaded and capitulate in, what, a week?

They're not going to eat boot leather for the sake of American control of semiconductors.

This imo is why America is dangerous. If you take Ukraine as an example, the American public would be baying for blood the first time casualty reports of entire battalions lost in a day come home. America got too high on their own myths of invincibility, and for whatever reason (genuinely curious) they seem to have a particularly fragile national ego.

If you don't believe our all volunteer military is invincible, then you have to be aware that in a fight between the USA and China, you are getting drafted and probably killed.

And being forced to fight and die in a war you didn't sign up for is wrong... But the people who signed on the dotted line volunteered to be fed feet first into a wood chipper so doing it to them is actually very ok.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Canada is going to send that sniper guy to Taiwan.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Frosted Flake posted:

Well yeah, because the island would just be blockaded and capitulate in, what, a week?

They're not going to eat boot leather for the sake of American control of semiconductors.

This imo is why America is dangerous. If you take Ukraine as an example, the American public would be baying for blood the first time casualty reports of entire battalions lost in a day come home. America got too high on their own myths of invincibility, and for whatever reason (genuinely curious) they seem to have a particularly fragile national ego.

Which is why if China is smart their upping their nuclear counterstrike capability, to better deter any American adventurism. I'm sure the big heads in DC are weighing out a minimum nuclear exchange and it's benefits.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

stephenthinkpad posted:


I don't think China will initiate the satellite war, they are planning to launch their version of Starlink.

Why would they? Their satellites are better now.

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Frosted Flake posted:

Well yeah, because the island would just be blockaded and capitulate in, what, a week?

They're not going to eat boot leather for the sake of American control of semiconductors.

This imo is why America is dangerous. If you take Ukraine as an example, the American public would be baying for blood the first time casualty reports of entire battalions lost in a day come home. America got too high on their own myths of invincibility, and for whatever reason (genuinely curious) they seem to have a particularly fragile national ego.

Id suggest we got such a fragile ego because we rode high on World War II and thinking we were invincible till the Soviets got their own nukes and than we spent the next 80 years loosong every war that wasn't against the weakest colonial subject while insisiting we've never lost a war. The Gulf War only threw that into turbo mode.

Its real funny listening to Blowback season one just really laying out all the reasons we've talked about why we can't win a conventional world war and real funny listening to them point out how American policy planners love blowback and talking about the next one, and just connecting it to Ukrianie instead of the Middle East. Or at least until our hanging those Nazis out to dry blasts back on us

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

GlassEye-Boy posted:

I'm sure the big heads in DC are weighing out a minimum nuclear exchange and it's benefits.

top. men.


KomradeX posted:

Or at least until our hanging those Nazis out to dry blasts back on us

naw that won't happen this time. this is the good one. this is the one you want to support

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


GlassEye-Boy posted:

Which is why if China is smart their upping their nuclear counterstrike capability, to better deter any American adventurism. I'm sure the big heads in DC are weighing out a minimum nuclear exchange and it's benefits.

China is definitely doing that but they already have at least a half dozen slbm nuke subs that each have 12 slbms with 3 warhead mirvs and a 9000 km range which means they could blow up dc from just west of hawaii. they have the capability of destroying every city over half a a million and all the us nuke silos with weapons that aren't counterable. nobody is shooting down a missile going mach 25. I'm sure the very smart guys in the us military understand that

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

It's also really cool to count how many aircraft a carrier can carry.

A Nimitz class typically carries 64, and can carry up to 130. It's a lot for bombing a Middle Eastern country, but against China? Especially if you consider that it's extremely unlikely for there to be more than 2 carriers in theatre? I think there are 3-4 at sea at any given time, max, the rest in port or in deep maintenance.

Let's be generous and say there will be 2 carriers with a full 130 aircraft each (of which some are not fighters). How long until the missiles run out? Carriers are huge, but their storage space is not infinite. Now, it's not like the PLAAF would want to lose hundreds of aircraft in a direct confrontation, but if they did, if you discount all the anti-air and anti-ship missiles and the navy, the air force by itself still has a huge numerical advantage.

And to fend off AshMs, they use Sm-3 and Sm-6 SAM missiles and CIWS guns. These are 1. Not perfect 2. Not infinite.

I do not think the US population is really prepared to lose 6000 sailors/pilots/etc in a day and the loss of an aircraft carrier. We haven't had to bear that since WW2. How Americans react is of particular interest to me, since the last time someone did that people who look like me got put in a camp. I'm not even Chinese, but my last name is close enough. Americans are very sore losers and very racist.

And as discussed ITT before, the US doesn't have the ability to pump out replacements anymore. Without a navy, the US doesn't have the ability to dictate terms in the SCS or Taiwan any longer. Whether or not this means the spicy rockets fly, I have no idea.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.
Makes sense they’re in DC because they sure as hell aren’t on my local Grindr.

Pulcinella
Feb 15, 2019

Trimson Grondag 3 posted:

The British government has also set up a contingency fund of about $12.75 billion, money that can be "re-profiled" to keep the program on track. The MoD has already accessed about 20% of the fund

gently caress I wish I was allowed to run projects like that.

A MIC grift slush fund with enough money to buy a PS5 and like 4 games for every child in the UK.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

skooma512 posted:

And to fend off AshMs, they use Sm-3 and Sm-6 SAM missiles and CIWS guns. These are 1. Not perfect 2. Not infinite.

I do not think the US population is really prepared to lose 6000 sailors/pilots/etc in a day and the loss of an aircraft carrier. We haven't had to bear that since WW2. How Americans react is of particular interest to me, since the last time someone did that people who look like me got put in a camp. I'm not even Chinese, but my last name is close enough. Americans are very sore losers and very racist.

And as discussed ITT before, the US doesn't have the ability to pump out replacements anymore. Without a navy, the US doesn't have the ability to dictate terms in the SCS or Taiwan any longer. Whether or not this means the spicy rockets fly, I have no idea.

They are not going to send the carrier group close to Taiwan. Why do you think they are force moving TSMC advanced plants?

Also they are going to make Japan attack China first, hence making Japan double the military spending to buy what, 1000 tomahawk missiles.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

If you're Taiwan, why the gently caress would you listen to America and move TSMC? They could not be more obviously telegraphing that they want a war to be fought in Taiwan. Just keep the fabs, sign on with one country two systems, sign a peace treaty ending the Civil War.

This strategic calculus makes zero sense to me.

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


Frosted Flake posted:

If you're Taiwan, why the gently caress would you listen to America and move TSMC? They could not be more obviously telegraphing that they want a war to be fought in Taiwan. Just keep the fabs, sign on with one country two systems, sign a peace treaty ending the Civil War.

This strategic calculus makes zero sense to me.

well they had a 50 year fascist terror campaign against the populace so there are no people's movements and the leaders make money off of being allied to the west

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

Frosted Flake posted:

If you're Taiwan, why the gently caress would you listen to America and move TSMC? They could not be more obviously telegraphing that they want a war to be fought in Taiwan. Just keep the fabs, sign on with one country two systems, sign a peace treaty ending the Civil War.

This strategic calculus makes zero sense to me.

who needs safety, security, and a very successful export industry when you can have freedom and a smoldering crater instead?

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.
Either they're telegraphing that they want the war to be fought in Taiwan, or that they wish to abandon Taiwan once the valuable assets are moved out and thus avoiding a war they can't realistically afford or win anyway. The fabs are presumably the only thing the US cares about, since I doubt they truly give a gently caress if the island is controlled by the nationalists or the communists beyond the usual reactionary politics, and this is the bargaining chip for the Taiwanese government to remain in being.

Idk how they sell the draft and eating nukes to maintain China's Cuba to the US populace but hey, just get the media to crow about it for 6 months in lockstep and you can get us to believe any drat thing.

Pulcinella
Feb 15, 2019

skooma512 posted:

Either they're telegraphing that they want the war to be fought in Taiwan, or that they wish to abandon Taiwan once the valuable assets are moved out and thus avoiding a war they can't realistically afford or win anyway. The fabs are presumably the only thing the US cares about, since I doubt they truly give a gently caress if the island is controlled by the nationalists or the communists beyond the usual reactionary politics, and this is the bargaining chip for the Taiwanese government to remain in being.

Idk how they sell the draft and eating nukes to maintain China's Cuba to the US populace but hey, just get the media to crow about it for 6 months in lockstep and you can get us to believe any drat thing.

Serious post: They are going to sell it as "You are now allowed and even encouraged to be really, really racist; but it's ok since we are at war !" The media has been low grade doing that for years already. Plus (at least until all the casualty numbers really start to roll in, so maybe not that long) the media can sell it as some exciting new television event. Liberals loved tuning in multiple times a day every day for extremely minor "updates" on all the Mueller investigation stuff. This will have actual explosions.

Edit: The first week is going to be like right after 9/11. People are going to giving eachother thumbs up in the grocery store while wearing American flag T-shirts.

Pulcinella has issued a correction as of 20:02 on Aug 24, 2023

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Hatebag posted:

well they had a 50 year fascist terror campaign against the populace so there are no people's movements and the leaders make money off of being allied to the west

right

skooma512 posted:

Idk how they sell the draft and eating nukes to maintain China's Cuba to the US populace but hey, just get the media to crow about it for 6 months in lockstep and you can get us to believe any drat thing.

It's hard to know what's a trial balloon and what's not, but, they convinced liberals nuclear war isn't that bad and we could enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine, as well as steady, albeit low frequency, mentions floating direct NATO involvement in Ukraine as a possibility. Before the SMO, in November-Jan they convinced a good number of American libs that NATO war with Russia was worth it for Ukrainian freedom or whatever the gently caress ever.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 20:04 on Aug 24, 2023

Zeppelin Insanity
Oct 28, 2009

Wahnsinn
Einfach
Wahnsinn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7JcAvnbRtE

It's worth revisiting this US military video on China from a year ago. It actually might have been posted in this thread back in the day.

Highlights:
-you should think twice before starting a war with a fifth of humanity (lol)
-Chinese navy is both bigger and more modern
-The US "must maintain a global strategy" while China "maintains a local strategy" and just wants to be left alone
-When they went to Vietnam, China "achieved their operational objectives in six weeks" and thus "learned their military wasn't worth a drat"

In the context of how horny for war generals and politicians are, lmao.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005



The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

It's also really cool to count how many aircraft a carrier can carry.

A Nimitz class typically carries 64, and can carry up to 130. It's a lot for bombing a Middle Eastern country, but against China? Especially if you consider that it's extremely unlikely for there to be more than 2 carriers in theatre? I think there are 3-4 at sea at any given time, max, the rest in port or in deep maintenance.

Let's be generous and say there will be 2 carriers with a full 130 aircraft each (of which some are not fighters). How long until the missiles run out? Carriers are huge, but their storage space is not infinite. Now, it's not like the PLAAF would want to lose hundreds of aircraft in a direct confrontation, but if they did, if you discount all the anti-air and anti-ship missiles and the navy, the air force by itself still has a huge numerical advantage.

In a serious shooting match carriers will just be torpedoed, making the flight decks moot. Same result in every exercise when someone brings a sub running off battery. If Australia's piece of poo poo Collins can do it so can everyone else.

They sure look nice though. Very effective against non peer opponents.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

Frosted Flake posted:

Apparently China's 2013 test may have been just that, demonstrating (or developing) the capability to hit satellites in geosynchronous orbit.

No.

Also who is going to collate and analyze all that?

chatgpt

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

The entire state of US military in one article.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2023/08/23/naval-surface-forces-get-new-commanding-officer/

quote:

Rear Adm. Yvette M. Davids salutes Vice Adm. Roy Kitchener during a change-of-command ceremony in San Diego. (MC2 Stevin C. Atkins/Navy)

Rear Adm. Yvette Davids is now the acting commander of Naval Surface Forces and Naval Surface Force, U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Davids relieved Vice Adm. Roy Kitchener, who is retiring following 38-years of service in the Navy, during a ceremony Friday at Naval Base San Diego. Kitchener became the so-called SWO boss in August 2020.

Under Kitchener’s leadership, the service ushered in the Surface Manning Experience program, or SURFMEX, which aims to place sailors in the right jobs at the right times using an analytics-based approach for detailing. He also instituted a campaign for 75 surface ships to remain mission-capable at any time.

“Vice Admiral Kitchener led us through some impressive organizational changes, a global pandemic and forward deployed operations — all the while tirelessly advocating for you, the surface warrior, and your ships,” Davids said, according to a Navy news release. “My charge to you as we keep a steady strain on our jobs and initiatives: Take care of your people; conduct safe operations; and get ready to take to the fight when your command is called.”

Davids, who graduated from the Naval Academy in 1989, became the first Hispanic American woman to lead a Navy warship when she became the commanding officer of the guided-missile frigate Curts in 2007.

She also served as the commanding officer of the guided-missile cruiser Bunker Hill, and as commander of Carrier Strike Group 11. Since August 2022, she has served as director of the Learning to Action Drive Team., which launched following the catastrophic 2020 fire aboard the amphibious assault ship Bonhomme Richard to ensure lessons learned from Navy ship fires are implemented.

Davids is serving in an acting capacity as SWO boss because she was nominated to serve as the first female superintendent at the U.S. Naval Academy in April. Her confirmation to the post is awaiting confirmation from the Senate and is one of the hundreds of military nominations stalled due to Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s ongoing hold on confirmations because of his opposition to the Pentagon’s abortion policy.

Rear Adm. Yvette Davids would become the first woman to serve as superintendent of the U.S. Naval Academy, if confirmed. (Navy)

The policy provides travel and transportation allowances for service members seeking non-covered abortion and reproductive services out of state.

Rear Adm. Brendan McLane, former commander of Naval Surface Forces Atlantic, has been nominated to serve as commander of Naval Surface Forces and Naval Surface Force, U.S. Pacific Fleet. His confirmation is also on hold.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Incredible.

I, for one, am excited to see what a LatinX womyn can do to place sailors in the right jobs at the right times using an analytics-based approach for detailing.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
something ironic about a dude named Kitchener still being a senior officer in the Navy

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Considering the problems with mine warfare, that seems like a problem...

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
its fine, we'll get a badass meme for recruiting out of it

tatankatonk
Nov 4, 2011

Pitching is the art of instilling fear.
calling sailors "warriors" is so loving stupid

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

tatankatonk posted:

calling sailors "warriors" is so loving stupid

You can thank the GWOT and the "warfighter" thing as they both tried to deprofessionalize soldiering and get away from the citizen-soldier dynamic of popular participation.

If armed men in a war zone aren't Regulars, and they aren't Minutemen, what are they? The obvious answer is "Mercenaries" but that's still mostly unacceptable, so the small military that remains has to be conceptualized as "Warriors".

It's a neoliberal thing.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

Frosted Flake posted:

You can thank the GWOT and the "warfighter" thing as they both tried to deprofessionalize soldiering and get away from the citizen-soldier dynamic of popular participation.

If armed men in a war zone aren't Regulars, and they aren't Minutemen, what are they? The obvious answer is "Mercenaries" but that's still mostly unacceptable, so the small military that remains has to be conceptualized as "Warriors".

It's a neoliberal thing.

they’re not mercenaries, they’re just trying to pay for college

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Boat Stuck
Apr 20, 2021

I tried to sneak through the canal, man! Can't make it, can't make it, the ship's stuck! Outta my way son! BOAT STUCK! BOAT STUCK!

Truga posted:

there's no need for a weapon system, you launch the same rocket with the same payload as every time you're launching a satellite, but instead of the "satellite" having a bunch of sollar arrays and antennae it's just the rocket bit (said ball of iron) that collides with the target, destroying it e: hell in a pinch you can just launch one of the normal satellites being scheduled for launch, it's gonna collide all the same

america has had this capability for like 60 years, but if they tried using it, so has russia, china, india, etc, and as soon the first satellite is destroyed, all the others will be too in short order, which creates the problem of all the interesting orbits being full of untrackable loose nuts and bolts flying around at stupid speeds forevermore. it's not going to be used outside like last ditch attempts, but at that point nukes are also in the game so who cares

yeah, a kinetic kill on a geosync satellite is akin to using a tactical nuclear weapon - it will lead to a strategic exchange

GlassEye-Boy posted:

Which is why if China is smart their upping their nuclear counterstrike capability, to better deter any American adventurism. I'm sure the big heads in DC are weighing out a minimum nuclear exchange and it's benefits.

they are certainly not dumb
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/us/politics/china-nuclear-weapons-russia-arms-treaties.html

Boat Stuck has issued a correction as of 05:21 on Aug 25, 2023

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