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Random Stranger posted:The gulf in particular seems to be perfect conditions for hurricanes to shoot up. You'll see storms cross Florida and weaken, then hit the gulf and go big again; Katrina was a baby storm when it crossed South Florida, for example. I’d like to think that a hurricane sees the gulf and the politics of those states and that it just has a sudden urge to violently destroy
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Aug 28, 2023 19:27
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Tampas about to get rocked. Theres a King Tide happening AT THE SAME TIME it's scheduled to arrive. 7 ft of storm surge plus shallow sheltered bay + full moon. https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2023/08/28/idalia-storm-surge-tampa-bay-full-moon-king-tide-pinellas/
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Aug 29, 2023 01:40
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FlamingLiberal posted:The GFS going with a double tap scenario http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL102023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/  
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Aug 29, 2023 15:30
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NHC's latest discussion has it making landfall around Apalachee bay, that's due south of Tallahassee. It looks like the storm is barely turning east at all now.
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Aug 29, 2023 17:43
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looks like the storm is moving slower than forecast yesterday. NHC cone looks about the same as of 11 AM, but time shifted 6 hours later. more time to intensify. especially if the trend continues and it ends up making landfall tomorrow evening instead of tomorrow morning. can see it on live radar pretty well now https://radar.weather.gov/?settings...CI6MC42fX0%3D#/ it's still not very symmetric and doesn't have a closed eye yet (or maybe it just closed in the most recent frame). but with an extra 6-12 hours over gulf waters compared to yesterday's forecast, it has plenty of time to get scary.
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Aug 29, 2023 17:56
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Rapid intensification is just becoming intensification, huh?
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Aug 29, 2023 18:00
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it was 80 mph winds overnight/this morning, so if it reaches 115+ by tomorrow morning it will have met the definition of rapid intensification. seems plausible, conditions are right.
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Aug 29, 2023 18:10
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yes, we've had rapid intensification, but what about second intensification?
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Aug 29, 2023 18:47
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https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/1696584079242825938?s=20 https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1696544257451216896?s=20 That's a shitload of storm surge and we don't have any recorded example of what exactly that means for this area.
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Aug 29, 2023 19:06
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Ehud posted:https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/1696584079242825938?s=20 I'm betting it means that Florida is completely uninsurable after this storm.
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Aug 29, 2023 19:09
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new lore!
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Aug 29, 2023 19:09
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Three Olives posted:I'm betting it means that Florida is completely uninsurable after this storm. Still waiting patiently for the one that takes out Mar a Lago.
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Aug 29, 2023 19:11
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Three Olives posted:I'm betting it means that Florida is completely uninsurable after this storm. nonsense, that graphic is actually saying it's a super safe area to insure. after all, this will be the first major hurricane in recorded history landing there!
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Aug 29, 2023 19:12
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the area the official cone is pointed at is primarily small farming communities with nearly nothing actually built on the coastline. it's all swamps and poo poo
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Aug 29, 2023 19:15
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I guess hoping for no hurricanes so the insurance industry comes back wasn't the best of plans.
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Aug 29, 2023 19:15
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big nipples big life posted:I guess hoping for no hurricanes so the insurance industry comes back wasn't the best of plans. Desantis didn't pray hard enough.
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Aug 29, 2023 19:16
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We got crazies driving around and scouting locations. We can keep adding to this list as it approaches and more folks go live. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuYXmZik8YI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0cIsLVa4xE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS444jmQg0Y also lol this is just from outer bands. https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/1696606275474272440?s=20 Florida is an affront to god
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Aug 29, 2023 20:34
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Ehud posted:Florida is an affront to god a monument to man's hubris
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Aug 29, 2023 20:37
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eke out posted:the area the official cone is pointed at is primarily small farming communities with nearly nothing actually built on the coastline. it's all swamps and poo poo This. It's one of the most sparsely populated parts of the entire state. Which does, however, mean that these areas are poor as gently caress and will struggle to deal with any damage.
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Aug 29, 2023 20:41
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big nipples big life posted:a monument to man's hubris did somebody say hubris https://twitter.com/CharlesPeekWX/status/1696609625569726607?s=20 look at how close the water is to the road lol 
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Aug 29, 2023 20:51
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Cat 2 now. https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1696627800609116282?s=46
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Aug 29, 2023 22:03
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eke out posted:the area the official cone is pointed at is primarily small farming communities with nearly nothing actually built on the coastline. it's all swamps and poo poo How much will it have to turn to hit The Villages?
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Aug 29, 2023 22:17
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The X-man cometh posted:How much will it have to turn to hit The Villages? Unfortunately the villages is in the area of florida that will still be above water in 50 years.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:52
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badass https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/1696659914070913142?s=20
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Aug 30, 2023 01:20
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meh, wake me up when the hurricane is producing ball lightning
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Aug 30, 2023 02:24
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Cythereal posted:This. It's one of the most sparsely populated parts of the entire state. Having been through those areas and met those people... ...good. Theyre not wholesome farmers. They're not so much the salt of the earth as they are salting the earth. If Taylor County, Florida is wiped off the map, the map is cleaner. Inshallah. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 30, 2023 03:07
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Ughhh I just moved from South Florida to the Orlando metro area (south Clermont) and thought I was done with this poo poo. I’m on a conservation lot along wetlands but up a little hill so hoping I don’t have to worry about flooding. Looks like we will just be getting the tropical storm effects I mostly ignored down south but I don’t know how this area handles storms. I vaguely know Ian hosed some of Central Florida up but not sure where. Guess I’m learning tonight!
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Aug 30, 2023 04:34
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Incredulous Dylan posted:Ughhh I just moved from South Florida to the Orlando metro area (south Clermont) and thought I was done with this poo poo. I’m on a conservation lot along wetlands but up a little hill so hoping I don’t have to worry about flooding. Looks like we will just be getting the tropical storm effects I mostly ignored down south but I don’t know how this area handles storms. I vaguely know Ian hosed some of Central Florida up but not sure where. Is it even raining there rn?
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Aug 30, 2023 04:37
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A bit earlier but just drizzling right now with a brisk wind. I think we are supposed to get the TS conditions in a few hours. Hey, at least I could actually get State Farm up here!
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Aug 30, 2023 04:42
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Clermont could also be flattened with a net gain to society. Clermont is less the Orlando metro area, and more the greater trailer park area. Basically anywhere on the below map with RGB values where B>R>G should eat a Cat 4. 
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Aug 30, 2023 05:26
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CarForumPoster posted:Clermont could also be flattened with a net gain to society. Clermont is less the Orlando metro area, and more the greater trailer park area. The whole map? I concur.
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Aug 30, 2023 05:48
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FoolyCharged posted:The whole map? I concur. No, the you guys blue parts are B>G>R!!!!
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Aug 30, 2023 05:50
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update has it making landfall as a cat 4: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
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Aug 30, 2023 06:25
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Looks like it will still be a category 1 going through my old hometown. Should do it some improvement.
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Aug 30, 2023 06:31
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Punch hurricane
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Aug 30, 2023 06:35
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is everyone dead yet or what ron where are u
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Aug 30, 2023 07:29
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Man I know Florida sucks but there are a lot of good people there still that can't leave. Stay safe Florida goons. I work in flood defence but in Europe and can't imagine dealing with 5m storm surges.
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Aug 30, 2023 08:11
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My oldest brother lives in Safety Harbor and joked they were the highest point in Pinellas. I was going to quip 'What like 1 inch above sea level'. But before looked up where I live (The Hague) to compare to them and well....They are +3m and I am just +1. Then discovered the lowest point in the Netherlands is only 30 minute drive from here, -6.7m. This storm has me nervous for them. But if it were hitting here I would sleep soundly. The water control engineering here is awe inspiring.
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Aug 30, 2023 09:19
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Hard to tell how viable this build is without damage numbers.
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Aug 30, 2023 10:00
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I have a meeting scheduled right around landfall  Here are your morning crazies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26FTVrcCtBw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68pUSDqDW-I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hil0oXS5DIo
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Aug 30, 2023 10:55
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