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fatherboxx)
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Cpt_Obvious posted:That really is the heart of it tho, Ukraine has lost about 1/5th of their total territory to Russia and the offensive has not made significant gains. OR, significantly outnumbered and outgunned, the Ukrainians have held the much larger Russian military - whose goal was the complete occupation of the country - at bay for a year and a half and have retaken territory. It's like if the US invaded Canada and 16 months later had never reached Toronto and were in fact being pushed back in places.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:26
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 04:30 |
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Cpt_Obvious posted:That really is the heart of it tho, Ukraine has lost about 1/5th of their total territory to Russia and the offensive has not made significant gains. The counteroffensive retook six-months of Russian gains in five weeks by July. Since then they've made steady progress while grinding away at Russian assets to the point that Russian counterbattery fire is apparently becoming ineffective. This is already vastly more successful than the prior Russian offensive was, *and the summer's not over yet*. Six months retaken in Five Weeks
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Aug 29, 2023 21:27
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:How is this supposed to work, though? The Russian population is many times bigger than the Ukrainian population, so they have more manpower. If the Ukrainians fight a war of attrition then they will lose: they are simply shooting themselves in the foot. They need to use cunning, guile, and elan - not attrition! This is not a smart strategy! there's more 2 war than how many people ur country has, hth
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Aug 29, 2023 21:27
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Attrition means materiel, not boots. Trained men are a resource, but the pressing bottlenecks are tubes, shells, radars, and other gear. Attriting Russian radar and artillery is a pretty good play.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:29
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to give a more substantive answer: due to geographical circumstances russia has very specific supply lines that they absolutely have no choice about defending (because there simply are no alternatives) so Ukraine's strategy is to make it incredibly costly to defend those specific points. The last time Ukraine cut major russian supply lines they regained the kherson region.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:30
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One other unexpected positive outcome of Ukraine regularly crushing Russian offensives is it may prevent any overt Chinese aggression against Taiwan any time soon, given the demonstrated inferiority of Soviet/Russian hardware versus US/NATO.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:34
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Rust Martialis posted:The counteroffensive retook six-months of Russian gains in five weeks by July. Since then they've made steady progress while grinding away at Russian assets to the point that Russian counterbattery fire is apparently becoming ineffective. This is already vastly more successful than the prior Russian offensive was, *and the summer's not over yet*. Territory is not measured in time, they are measured in land. The amount of land they have regained is a rounding error: quote:[Despite their battlefield difficulties, Ukrainian forces have continued to advance. Ukraine’s general staff said its forces seized 4sq km (1.8sq miles) over the previous week around the eastern city of Bakhmut. That would bring to 162sq km (63sq miles) the territory Ukraine claims to have recaptured since its counteroffensive began on June 4. Ukraine is the size of Texas, 63 square miles absolutely miniscule. That headline is bananas deceptive too considering in the past 6 months the Russians have not been on the offensive, they've been fortifying the territory they've already taken. It is Ukraine which is trying to push the line, not the Russians.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:40
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Gotta pump those logistics numbers up, those are rookie numbers.  Adequate number of troops, no food, no ammo, no support... a poor way for russia to prosecute a war.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:41
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:Russia has a native arms industry, Ukraine does not Really not true. In 2012 Ukraine was the 4th largest arms exporter in the world. This dropped after the 2014 invasion as Ukraine focused on arming itself rather than export for obvious reasons. Although Russia has (had???) a huge materiel advantage in this war, it's because they inherited vast soviet stockpiles, not because they've got enormous and well functioning military industrial capacity. A significant portion of soviet military production was in Ukraine. Russia's production capacity is larger, but it's also not fully mobilised in the way that Ukraine is. Probably still has the upper hand? Maybe? But these things are kept so closely guarded during war I doubt anyone knows for sure. Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:48 on Aug 29, 2023 |
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Aug 29, 2023 21:43
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Bar Ran Dun posted:No this isn’t true at all. It's difficult to compare. E.g. in the battle of Kursk in 1943 there were a million Germans against two and a half million Russians. Modern wars come nowhere near such figures, and this was just a part of the front. The WW2 US marine is also far from the average experience of WW2.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:43
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Rust Martialis posted:One other unexpected positive outcome of Ukraine regularly crushing Russian offensives is it may prevent any overt Chinese aggression against Taiwan any time soon, given the demonstrated inferiority of Soviet/Russian hardware versus US/NATO. I agree that the war in Ukraine is making China reconsider going for Taiwan, but it's more that the NATO/Pacific allies have demonstrated political unity against Russia and have used the past 18 months to get their domestic military production in order.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:44
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Rust Martialis posted:One other unexpected positive outcome of Ukraine regularly crushing Russian offensives is it may prevent any overt Chinese aggression against Taiwan any time soon, given the demonstrated inferiority of Soviet/Russian hardware versus US/NATO. Another reason might be that the west has started gearing up again due to Russian aggressiveness. Additionally current Russian weakness and having hands tied means that USA would be able to focus on East Asia if things suddenly escalated, way better than before the invasion. Europe is safe as long as Putin is getting his rear end handed to him by Ukraine.
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Aug 29, 2023 21:50
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Ukraine is the size of Texas, 63 square miles absolutely miniscule. Whats next, measuring territory in football fields? Failed Kreminna offensive was February-March of this year, Bakhmut grinder ended in summer and Russians have also attempted an offensive in Kupyansk very recently, which has not seen much success (unclear how much was dedicated to that effort) fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Aug 29, 2023 |
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Aug 29, 2023 21:52
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It seems Ukraine is now in contact with a significant section of the Surovikin line https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1696610393362182570 Looks like about a 6.5km line of contact, about as wide as it'll get without progress into Novoprokopivka or Verbove. I guess they'll need to widen this to make it sustainable though, so things could slow down a bit if their next task is to crack one of those settlements.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:00
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Cpt_Obvious posted:That headline is bananas deceptive too considering in the past 6 months the Russians have not been on the offensive, they've been fortifying the territory they've already taken. It is Ukraine which is trying to push the line, not the Russians. You're claiming the November-to-May Russian offensive never happened? The absolute fiasco of the offense in the south? The whole Bakhmut thing? You can maybe be excused for glossing over it since it accomplished so little, I guess. In comparison to that slaughter Ukraine is doing *quite* well in continuing to grind forward in the teeth of the best Russia has available.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:01
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Russia also isn’t really that much bigger than Ukraine in population. It’s about 3x, which is big but it’s not infinite hordes. For comparison the US is about ten Canadas
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Aug 29, 2023 22:03
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Russia also isn’t really that much bigger than Ukraine in population. It’s about 3x, which is big but it’s not infinite hordes. Not falling for that one again. We remember 1812. Nice try
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Aug 29, 2023 22:06
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Just to be entirely clear, 63 square miles is less than 00.03% of the Ukrainian land mass. For comparison, just donetsk (which is now entirely under Russian control) is 10,238 sq mi. So to take back donetsk, and only donetsk, would take 160 of these offensives.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:07
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Because that's how war works, you see.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:08
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Just to be entirely clear, 63 square miles is less than 00.03% of the Ukrainian land mass. For comparison, just donetsk (which is now entirely under Russian control) is 10,238 sq mi. So to take back donetsk, and only donetsk, would take 160 of these offensives. Just tell us what you think Ukraine should do then?
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Aug 29, 2023 22:10
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Just to be entirely clear, 63 square miles is less than 00.03% of the Ukrainian land mass. For comparison, just donetsk (which is now entirely under Russian control) is 10,238 sq mi. So to take back donetsk, and only donetsk, would take 160 of these offensives.  Okay, Bakhmut Bob. You don't determine who wins a fight until it's over.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:10
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Mano posted:Just tell us what you think Ukraine should do then? They should negotiate a peace treaty.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:11
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Cpt_Obvious posted:They should negotiate a peace treaty. With whom
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Aug 29, 2023 22:12
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Just to be entirely clear, 63 square miles is less than 00.03% of the Ukrainian land mass. For comparison, just donetsk (which is now entirely under Russian control) is 10,238 sq mi. So to take back donetsk, and only donetsk, would take 160 of these offensives. Now do that absolutely amazing math for last years retaking of Kherson Cpt_Obvious posted:They should negotiate a peace treaty. They still have resources for maintaining the current offensive until fall and then it is going to be another round of western supplies and preparation of forces for next year fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Aug 29, 2023 |
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Aug 29, 2023 22:14
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Cpt_Obvious posted:They should negotiate a peace treaty. You realise that the other party in this negotiation would be Russia and their current negotiating stance is for Ukraine to cede all annexed territory and refrain from forming any defensive alliances that will prevent Russia from invading again once it has recovered? You genuinely think this is a good idea?
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Aug 29, 2023 22:15
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Just to be entirely clear, 63 square miles is less than 00.03% of the Ukrainian land mass. For comparison, just donetsk (which is now entirely under Russian control) is 10,238 sq mi. So to take back donetsk, and only donetsk, would take 160 of these offensives. Your gimmick is getting pretty stale.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:15
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Cpt_Obvious posted:They should negotiate a peace treaty. Negotiating a peace treaty is dumb as gently caress right now. It just lets Russia consolidate and recover from this to repeat down the line. Plus, y’know, the genocide.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:15
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Cpt_Obvious posted:They should negotiate a peace treaty. Prigozhin negotiated with Putin, it went pretty well overall I'd say.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:19
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Nenonen posted:It's difficult to compare. E.g. in the battle of Kursk in 1943 there were a million Germans against two and a half million Russians. Modern wars come nowhere near such figures, and this was just a part of the front. The WW2 US marine is also far from the average experience of WW2. The scale of the conflict and the intensity of the conflict are different things.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:20
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poor waif posted:Prigozhin negotiated with Putin, it went pretty well overall I'd say. I think Russia has proven over the past 10 years that it is a pretty trustworthy international partner.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:21
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Bar Ran Dun posted:The scale of the conflict and the intensity of the conflict are different things. It's disingenuous to say that the experience of an American infantryman in the Pacific was representative of the intensity of the war. I'm pretty sure the Soviets and Germans at Stalingrad weren't fighting one day or month.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:23
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Cpt_Obvious posted:They should negotiate a peace treaty. This would be the best thing Russia could hope for right now.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:23
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There is no appeasing of dictators. You beat them or they keep taking from you. There is no middle ground. What appears as middle ground is them only waiting for the opportunity to take what they want. It's been this way for all of human history. If you want people to think you're being realistic, saying "negotiate with Putin now" is literally not being realistic. Ukraine will negotiate when either their backs are against the wall, or Putin is. Neither side is there yet and calling for a ceasefire before that point will only be seen as strategic and political weakness.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:24
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Just to be entirely clear, 63 square miles is less than 00.03% of the Ukrainian land mass. For comparison, just donetsk (which is now entirely under Russian control) is 10,238 sq mi. So to take back donetsk, and only donetsk, would take 160 of these offensives. Donetsk is not entirely controlled by Russia?? Like, maybe 50% or something? The closest province to being totally controlled is Luhansk.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:25
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I honestly am curious what a peace treaty could even look like. There's no real way to make both sides happy or even both sides accepting of a bad outcome because Ukraine's interest lies in not being invaded again in 4 years and Russia's interest involves Ukraine not joining NATO or whatever.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:26
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ImpAtom posted:I honestly am curious what a peace treaty could even look like. There's no real way to make both sides happy or even both sides accepting of a bad outcome because Ukraine's interest lies in not being invaded again in 4 years and Russia's interest involves Ukraine not joining NATO or whatever. Also Kherson, Zaporizhye, Donetsk and Luhansk regions are written in Russian constitution due to sham referendums - current regime cant legally rescind the claim to the territory they dont factually control.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:29
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Russia wants a bunch of Ukrainian territory and for the remaining rump state to remain permanently in its sphere of influence. Ukraine wants ... not that. I don't really see where the areas of compromise would be.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:29
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fatherboxx posted:Now do that absolutely amazing math for last years retaking of Kherson amusingly i remember seeing a bunch of almost word for word identical statements a year ago about how Cpt_Obvious posted:That really is the heart of it tho, Ukraine has lost about 1/5th of their total territory to Russia and the offensive has not made significant gains.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:32
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steinrokkan posted:I think Russia has proven over the past 10 years that it is a pretty trustworthy international partner. Minsk 3 will surely guarantee a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine, just like Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 did. Perhaps Prigozhin and Dudayev can mediate?
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Aug 29, 2023 22:32
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 04:30 |
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Mr SuperAwesome posted:How is this supposed to work, though? The Russian population is many times bigger than the Ukrainian population, so they have more manpower. If the Ukrainians fight a war of attrition then they will lose: they are simply shooting themselves in the foot. They need to use cunning, guile, and elan - not attrition! This is not a smart strategy! The Ukrainians don't really have much of a choice on how to fight the war. They have limited support from NATO countries who are trying to be pro-Ukraine in a way that allows them to win without triggering a Nuclear exchange with Russia. Their best hope for a quick victory is to keep fighting and hope someone puts a bullet in Putin's head or he loses control in a coup. If that doesn't happen then it's going to be through a political settlement. Of course that requires Putin's willingness to fight and he's probably willing to throw away millions of Russian lives, so that might take a few years.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:33
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