(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
No one in this thread has any say over whether Ukraine decides to fight on or surrender, so I don't know what your posting adds. Yeah, war is hell, it's a shame (for the people of Ukraine) that Russia started one.
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 07:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 14:57 |
|
|
Mr SuperAwesome posted:Irrelevancies. Merely having old dudes in uniform is not the same thing as the Volkssturm. Again, this the sort of analysis I'd expect from someone who's sole education background on armed conflict is History Channel docs and an extremely superficial podcast about World War One.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 07:28
|
|
|
Bar Ran Dun posted:I think you don’t have a working definition of intensity. I’m using how much time soldiers spend in combat. I am thinking of stuff like this: Number of people involved (both in total and density), amount of casualties incurred (both in total and per time), amount of equipment involved (both in total and density). You're definition sucks and as Kikas mentioned even with your idiotic definition you are comparing it with an irrelevant special case when looking at WW2. You completely ignored the numbers provided by Mirificus: quote:Days in Combat in ETO, June 6, 1944 – May 8, 1945 posted: (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 07:31
|
|
|
A tweet from "euromaidanpress" with no accompanying article or information? That's your source? Are these people volunteers? Did they have previous military experience? Are they provided uniforms? Are they trying to hold on to a surrounded Kyiv while Zelensky is dead in his bunker? If Russia can't advance against conscripted geriatrics without uniforms, weapons, training or heavy equipment, they're in a worse state than I thought. Or maybe your Volksturm isn't quite as volky or sturmy as you suggest.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 07:32
|
|
|
From all the info that's come out about the way Putin's regime has been treating to he areas it occupies, if they weren't pro-Russian many of the Ukrainians fighting for Ukraine would have been dead or disappeared by now if they'd agreed to a peace deal. Trying to erase Ukrainian identity through forced relocation and massively changing the education curriculum is a form of genocide. The only realistic option Ukraine has is kicking out the Russians.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 08:07
|
|
|
Mr SuperAwesome posted:Dulce et decorum est An English poem about WWI doesn't fit here as well as you think it does, unless there was some invasion of the British Isles during WWII that I'm unaware of.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 08:23
|
|
|
ummel posted:unless there was some invasion of the British Isles during WWII that I'm unaware of. Just because it is historically interesting and apparently not well known: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_occupation_of_the_Channel_Islands
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 09:24
|
|
|
Mr SuperAwesome posted:https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1696016757805179198 If you invade someone they get to decide whether to fight or not and what the defence is worth to them. Ukraine is not on some foreign adventure or colonial escapade.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 10:53
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:As a non-American, it's always seemed to me that Americans fetishize the PTO battles, like 'Bloody Tarawa' but when you compare it to ETO campaigns they were massively one-sided cakewalks over-hyped into these legendary epics. Casualy rates were much higher in the PTO, the single division to fight on Tarawa lost a thousand dead and twice that injured. That's twice the D-Day losses by size of the force involved. The whole theater was also on the whole a lot less pleasant to be in regarding nature, infrastucture and the expected treatment in case of capture.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 11:22
|
|
|
The breach of the second defensive line at Verbove now visually confirmed https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1696800042462392605 Seems like the Russians really dropped the ball here. Although I'm sure the Ukrainian advances here will slow as they clear this town, once they capture it the entire second line in this area is neutralised, and the forces to the north will be in danger of encirclement and will likely have to withdraw. Given how recently Ukraine reached this defensive line, it seems like they just blew through it as if it wasn't there. The next few weeks will be very interesting as we see how well they're able to capitalise on this.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 11:26
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:As a non-American, it's always seemed to me that Americans fetishize the PTO battles, like 'Bloody Tarawa' but when you compare it to ETO campaigns they were massively one-sided cakewalks over-hyped into these legendary epics. Is it really weird that Americans care about the battles that their people personally fought in?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 11:51
|
|
|
My issue with "I don't see Ukraine having a pathway to win" is....They are...? At the bare minimum Ukraine is objectively reclaiming territory, however slowly. Maybe once they're in an actual stalemate for an extended period of time, or Russia successfully deploys a counter-offensive we can reasonably and effectively start making declarations of no path to victory?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 12:07
|
|
|
I think one of the things that the 'they're just taking little bits of territory' is missing is that if they take one particular BIT of small territory, namely, the territory that gives them a good fire position on Russia's supply lines westward, then suddenly a LOT of Russian held territory becomes functionally untenable, and Russia gets to pick between a relatively orderly retreat a la Kherson, or sit there while food and ammunition gets increasingly scarce and get absolutely routed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 12:33
|
|
|
Nelson Mandingo posted:My issue with "I don't see Ukraine having a pathway to win" is....They are...? At the bare minimum Ukraine is objectively reclaiming territory, however slowly. Well it's always good to ask what a "Win" is so we don't get into another slapfight with moving goalposts. Is it "Ukraine retakes the lands Russia occupies"? - well they better keep on fighting and moving forward Is it "Ukraine retakes the lands Russia occupies and returns to 2014 borders"? - see above Is it "Ukraine secures enough of the area for NATO Peacekeepers to come in and start protecting it"? - see above, however unlikely this scenario is Is it "Ukrainian people stop dying at the hands of Russia?" - guess what still see above because no peace treaty or anything else other than military might or other means of force will stop Russians from killing Ukrainians when Putin himself called the country "a mistake" and wants to eradicate the culture one way or another. No peace treaty, no promises, no words. Force. And as always, remember - Ukraine doesn't want to fight this war but has to. Russia doesn't have to, but wants to. It's Russia who can take their toys and go home, not Ukraine, and they should fight tooth and nail to kick out the genocidal aggressor.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 12:35
|
|
|
On manpower - every young male I know has been able to easily avoid conscription if they want to. I think Ukraine is still a far way from even doing something approaching a total mobilization. So I don't think manpower is very critical yet.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 12:49
|
|
|
Shogeton posted:I think one of the things that the 'they're just taking little bits of territory' is missing is that if they take one particular BIT of small territory, namely, the territory that gives them a good fire position on Russia's supply lines westward, then suddenly a LOT of Russian held territory becomes functionally untenable, and Russia gets to pick between a relatively orderly retreat a la Kherson, or sit there while food and ammunition gets increasingly scarce and get absolutely routed. A very good point, for a start all that road structure around Tokmak looks extremely inviting.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 12:51
|
|
|
Kikas posted:Well it's always good to ask what a "Win" is so we don't get into another slapfight with moving goalposts. I'll take this one for everyone! "Russia chooses to cease hostilities against Ukraine for the foreseeable future."
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 13:17
|
|
|
I'm pretty sure those who are interested have already seen it, but War on the Rocks's latest episode was exactly on the topic of winning the peace (with Kofman and Stephen Kotkin, apparently famous history nerd). I thought the points Kotkin put forward made a lot of sense, and are aligned with the above as well. https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/how-ukraine-can-win-the-peace-a-conversation-with-stephen-kotkin/, in case anyone hasn't listened yet. Since deleting Twitter, Warontherocks and this thread mostly keep me up to speed with what's going on. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 13:18
|
|
|
Part 2 is behind a War on the Rocks subscription, which I've found to be worth the price. Some of their other podcasts are interesting, too, at least if you're interested in international security and international affairs. It's fairly US-centric in it's editorial tone, but they do a good job of getting non-American guests to provide perspectives from other regions.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 13:47
|
|
|
ummel posted:An English poem about WWI doesn't fit here as well as you think it does, unless there was some invasion of the British Isles during WWII that I'm unaware of. It fits perfectly well. Your original post: ummel posted:If you don't fundamentally agree that it is honorable and good or whatever to die defending your homeland from foreign invaders, there's nothing else to be said. They literally teach this to schoolchildren to drive home the horrors and pointlessness of war, and to refute your point that it is honourable and good to die for your country. It isn’t. It also obviously has direct parallels to the current situation in Ukraine (pointless deaths, incompetent generals, trench warfare, gruelling artillery). There’s a very good reason why WWI poetry became a poignant expression of the common soldiers’ experience, and something to learn from. Sadly it seems that those lessons have been forgotten. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:04
|
|
|
Great War poetry had a lot of different messages, but the overall one was to disabuse notions of the glory of war, not the value of ever fighting for anything.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:08
|
|
|
Mr SuperAwesome posted:It fits perfectly well. Your original post: By which lie and by which false masters are UA soldiers being manipulated to die pointlessly?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:08
|
|
|
Mr SuperAwesome posted:It fits perfectly well. Your original post: Brits in WW1 were not repealing invaders to their country I am not well-versed in WW2 British pacifists but I believe reciting that poem to victims of Blitz would have resulted in a pint glass being smashed over face. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Aug 30, 2023 |
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:14
|
|
|
The U.S. lost some 50,000ish servicemen in Vietnam, around one year’s highway auto deaths, compared to 2 million some odd Vietnamese lives and in the end it was the U.S who lost and withdrew, so the will to fight is absolutely in many instances a more important variable than total population and manpower. The appetite for the U.S. to continue and prevent another “domino” from falling into the wrong sphere of influence was far exceeded by the will to fight for national self determination on the North Vietnamese side. Likewise while the victory of the Union in the U.S. Civil War might seem obvious in retrospect based on population and industrial and economic might, there may well have been scenarios where the Confederacy might have strung together enough victories to oust Lincoln and exceed the collective will of the North to preserve the Union. Every war is different and important differences between Vietnam and the invasion of Ukraine include the U.S. Presidency being subject to elections, and the proximity of Ukraine to Russia. The fact that Putin is not subject to being turned out in an election and is largely in control of broadcast media in his country allows him to pursue the invasion more freely than LBJ and Nixon in the near term, but should his interest and the interests of the general population be seen to diverge too much going forward it could jeopardize his whole regime.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:30
|
|
|
Mr SuperAwesome posted:It fits perfectly well. Your original post: Ah yes, the pointless death of a soldier fighting to prevent genocide.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:35
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Part 2 is behind a War on the Rocks subscription, which I've found to be worth the price. Some of their other podcasts are interesting, too, at least if you're interested in international security and international affairs. It's fairly US-centric in it's editorial tone, but they do a good job of getting non-American guests to provide perspectives from other regions. Adding the Arms Control Wonk podcast. The Ukraine war is mostly tangentially related, but some episodes are thread relevant, like "The CAT I is Out of the Bag" regarding the MTCR and "Another Crazy Train" regarding Twitter nuclear hysteria.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:36
|
|
|
The Vietnam analogy doesn't make much sense because the 50k deaths of Americans were a drop in the ocean in the scope of total losses of the Southern forces. The Americans withdrew with the knowledge that the whole government they were backing had failed, their native Vietnamese army was on borrowed time, and the whole country has been thoroughly infiltrated by the enemy, something they never managed to curtail. Had they lost 50k soldiers while managing to prop up the South as a coherent government with a working military, full control over their territory and population, and the Northern Vietnamese hopelessly stuck at their side of the border, things would have probably ended up differently, I assume along the Korea lines.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:39
|
|
|
It's funny to see people bring up Vietnam like that, given they have fought off France, US, and China in succession.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 14:49
|
|
|
The point is not that the wars are entirely analogous but just to show that war being “politics by other means”, the political will for each side to continue is one of the most important variables.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 15:01
|
|
|
Zwabu posted:The point is not that the wars are entirely analogous but just to show that war being “politics by other means”, the political will for each side to continue is one of the most important variables. This. Ukraine's political will is currently being influenced by, "I would like myself and all of my family to not be further victims of genocide", and it turns out that's a pretty good reason to fight!
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 15:07
|
|
|
War isn't just politics by other means, as the source, from which it has been adopted and then twisted against its original meaning in common use, explains, and the example of Vietnam illustrates it nicely, it was a comprehensive material failure that would have taken more resources to "fix" than the US could have possibly provided, if there even was any such scenario possible, it was not just Americans growing tired politically.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 15:10
|
|
|
Obviously Ukraine isn't showing any signs of collapsing morale, but just like North Vietnam they can't rely on just sitting Russia out, i.e. expecting that Russians will withdraw because they lost patience despite limited losses, Ukraine must actually make Russian presence in U militarily nonviable.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 15:15
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Part 2 is behind a War on the Rocks subscription, which I've found to be worth the price. Some of their other podcasts are interesting, too, at least if you're interested in international security and international affairs. It's fairly US-centric in it's editorial tone, but they do a good job of getting non-American guests to provide perspectives from other regions. Kotkin's approach to thinking about how Ukraine can 'win the peace' was enlightening too, as were his thoughts on Crimea and regime change/escalation management (and the threat or lack of threat thereof). I've been thinking for a while that as much as Crimea is Ukrainian territory and I think by rights they ought to have it back, it could also be a poison pill in terms of both administering a majority Russian-speaking/ ethnically Russian territory and as fuel for Russian revanchism and irredentism. Even Navalny wants Crimea for Russia, and I didn't realize Yeltsin had wanted it way back in 1991. What Ukraine wants long term is to be part of the west and not living under the shadow of Russia. Russia absolutely does not want that, hence this conflict. They've been fighting politically since 2003 and militarily since 2014-so what's the best way for Ukraine to get what it wants in the current situation? Obviously EU membership is part of that journey, and western security guarantees to enable that. But how do they get there from here? As much as everyone wants Russia to be totally militarily defeated-all Ukrainian territory returned, reparations, war crime trials etc.- that's going to be extremely difficult if not impossible barring a total collapse of the Russian military (hasn't happened yet) or a change in Russian political leadership. Kotkin suggest that as somewhere we could maybe apply more pressure. The only way Putin stops this war is if he thinks the war is threatening his hold on power-how can the west help effect that, without also threating Putin to the point he pushes the big red button? In theory, Ukraine saying to Russia 'Okay you get to keep what you have, but if you cross this current line of control NATO is gonna gently caress you up and we have security guarantees now and are joining the EU have a nice life we never want to talk to you again' and living it's best life would probably be the best thing long term for Ukraine-winning the peace, rebuild, save lives etc. But that isn't politically viable in Ukraine itself right now, and Russia wouldn't sign up for that either. So it's a moot point. Ukraine really doesn't have any good practical options right now, but their least bad option seems to be to keep fighting and hope for the best.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 15:51
|
|
|
Ukraine joining NATO or the EU also has to deal with Russia-friendly states like Hungary and Turkey, either of whom could choose to hold it up indefinitely.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 15:59
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:On manpower - every young male I know has been able to easily avoid conscription if they want to. Any reactions from them after the anti-corruption sweep earlier this month? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/11/zelenskiy-sacks-all-military-recruitment-heads-over-frontline-bribes-scandal-ukraine
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 16:01
|
|
|
I think it's on Ukraine to make that decision, but if their decision is "We need to keep fighting until the bitter end because rewarding bullies just encourages them" I'm not gonna criticize that thought process. It's one that I would entirely agree with in this situation. If Putin gets to keep Crimea in exchange for stopping the current war, he's gonna start another one at some point to get more of what he wants at a cost he doesn't care about. I don't see Ukraine being accepted in to NATO fast enough for the deterrence presence to be put in place to prevent that.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 16:03
|
|
|
socialsecurity posted:Where's that proven at? They are hitting military airports. It's not the same as terror bombing civilians like the Russians have been doing in Ukraine this whole time.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 16:14
|
|
|
bird food bathtub posted:If Putin gets to keep Crimea in exchange for stopping the current war, he's gonna start another one at some point to get more of what he wants at a cost he doesn't care about. This is the other thing: Ukraine can't really make peace with Putin. He's spent the last thirty years demonstrating that any agreement or treaty is only valid as long as it's convenient to him. Prigozhin is the most recent example of that, but Minsk 1 and 2 are previous Ukrainian attempts. Minsk 3 would just be a ceasefire while Putin tries to rearm faster than Ukraine can.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 16:14
|
|
|
ummel posted:An English poem about WWI doesn't fit here as well as you think it does, unless there was some invasion of the British Isles during WWII that I'm unaware of. Didn't WWI start with Serbians fighting a war against invasion?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 16:16
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 14:57 |
|
|
Jon posted:Didn't WWI start with Serbians fighting a war against invasion? And arguably one of the things used to galvanize support in the UK were the war crimes committed in Belgium, a long standing friend of England, so in that way you could argue the British soldiers were fighting against an invasion of friendly territory.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2023 16:19
|
|