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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

I think I'm going to start a reading list for myself called "Why We're hosed" tentative titles curated from official reading lists:

Nobody Wants to Fight Anymore (cultural problems):

The Deployment Toolkit: Military Families and Solutions for a Successful Long-Distance Relationship
Military Finances : Personal Money Management for Service Members, Veterans, and Their Families
Sexual Assault in the Military : A Guide for Victims and Families
Transforming Warriors: The ritual organization of military force
American Soldiers in Iraq: McSoldiers or Innovative Professionals?
The Warrior, Military Ethics and Contemporary Warfare: Achilles Goes Asymmetrical
The Ones We Let Down: Toxic Leadership Culture and Gender Integration in the Canadian Forces
The US Military Profession into the 21st Century: War, Peace and Politics

Why NATO militaries suck (doctrine and operations):

Modern War and the Utility of Force: Challenges, Methods and Strategy
Military Strategy as Public Discourse: America's war in Afghanistan
Military Mission Formations and Hybrid Wars
International Military Operations in the 21st Century: Global Trends and the Future of Intervention
Contemporary Military Innovation: Between Anticipation and Adaption
Complex Peace Operations and Civil-Military Relations: Winning the Peace
The Evolution of Modern Land Warfare: Theory and Practice
Military Advising and Assistance: From Mercenaries to Privatization, 1815-2007

Why NATO states suck (strategy and foreign policy):

The Powell Doctrine and US Foreign Policy
Defence Diplomacy: Strategic Engagement and Interstate Conflict
Blair's Successful War: British Military Intervention in Sierra Leone
Political and Military Sociology: The European Refugee Crisis
The Future of US Warfare
British Generals in Blair’s Wars
Britain and the War on Terror: Policy, Strategy and Operations
Air Power in the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific: Understanding Regional Security Dynamics
Western Military Interventions After The Cold War
The Regime Change Consensus: Iraq in American Politics, 1990-2003

Miscellaneous (mostly RMA/tech circlejerk):

Managing the Revolution in Military Affairs
Reassessing the Revolution in Military Affairs: Transformation, Evolution and Lessons Learnt
The Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel.
The Military Revolution and Revolutions in Military Affairs (compares smart bombs to the advent of gunpowder)
The Military and Liberal Society: Societal-Military Relations in Western Europe

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Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Frosted Flake posted:

Achilles Goes Asymmetrical

This is the worst thing on that list. I assume some editor/publisher had that poo poo thrown in there to get the attention of potential readers.

Pomeroy
Apr 20, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpZhF8KrtRo

As the much-hyped Ukrainian counter-offensive fails to produce major military breakthroughs, officials in the West are becoming concerned that their proxy war against Russia is not going according to plan. But instead of negotiating a lasting peace, the instinct of the war makers is the opposite – double down on massive arms shipments, and insist that Ukrainians die in even larger numbers.

Brian Becker is joined by Walter Smolarek, the editor of Liberation News.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
Really liking the homosex derail.

Best Friends posted:

this is also how the Iraqi army worked, quite openly, no shame or hiding. while also making fun of America for being tolerant of gays. It really got me thinking about how there’s sexuality, a real thing, and there’s how cultures categorize sexuality, which is inherently a construction. does “gay” exist? yes, says the western straight man. No, says the completely regular guy sucking dick.

Sexuality is also a construct, but constructs are usually attempts to describe what you call "real" (ie non constructed) things. What's not a construct is a sexual act, hence "homosex".
A lot of things are constructs that people don't generally think of us such though. I like the example of maths, which is wholly predicated on logic, which is just some rules some fellows made up.

Tankbuster posted:

or because the economic development is directly used to make them even more marginalized in their own land for the benefit of folks who have summer homes in the hills surrounding islamabad?

Couldn't both these things be true? It wouldn't be the first group with legitimate grievances used by the USA to further it's own ends. Operating out of quisling Afghanistan suggests they likely at least have America's blessing.

Digital Jedi
May 28, 2007

Fallen Rib

Cao Ni Ma posted:

Surprising how you cant find something thats this easy to google

https://substack.com/@bigserge

thanks. really interesting read

sum
Nov 15, 2010

The village of Malyi Shpakiv, which had a population of 659 in 2001, has suffered 10 dead in the war -- 3% of the male population. It's rare that we get uncensored data about casualties for Ukraine but the times we do it looks ghastly.
https://twitter.com/pogrebeckij/status/1696522432792989896

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

Starsfan posted:

It was reported earlier (by Suriyak for example) that Ukraine had actually breached the first significant Russian defensive line:

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1696902419622269358

Rybar has clarified however that this isn't the actual "Surovikin" line everyone is thinking of with the dragon's teeth, anti-tank ditches and concrete bunkers, which apparently runs to the south of Verbove and Novopropivka (further south than what is shown on the map), which are the settlements that Ukraine would next need to capture if they wanted to continue their offensive. Ukraine seems to have shifted from trying to advance south from Robotyne towards Novopropivka for the time being in favor of this push towards the east.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=47.44190093321305%2C35.977132470252364&z=12

according to this map they haven't broken through anything

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

supersnowman posted:

Remember the WMDs they were all positive we would find in Irak?

They're currently in the 'those pipes are dual use!' phase. In a few years it'll come out that everyone involved knowingly lied and they'll either ignore it or insist they were skeptics all along. No one will ever be held accountable. Recall that Joe Biden was one of the biggest Iraq cheerleaders and his Senate position at the time absolutely meant he was in on manufacturing consent.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Weka posted:

Really liking the homosex derail.

Sexuality is also a construct, but constructs are usually attempts to describe what you call "real" (ie non constructed) things. What's not a construct is a sexual act, hence "homosex".
A lot of things are constructs that people don't generally think of us such though. I like the example of maths, which is wholly predicated on logic, which is just some rules some fellows made up.

maths is real OP

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/dbessner/status/1696938931009515943
https://twitter.com/dbessner/status/1697031123665293693

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021

Weka posted:

Really liking the homosex derail.

Sexuality is also a construct, but constructs are usually attempts to describe what you call "real" (ie non constructed) things. What's not a construct is a sexual act, hence "homosex".
A lot of things are constructs that people don't generally think of us such though. I like the example of maths, which is wholly predicated on logic, which is just some rules some fellows made up.

Couldn't both these things be true? It wouldn't be the first group with legitimate grievances used by the USA to further it's own ends. Operating out of quisling Afghanistan suggests they likely at least have America's blessing.

The BLA has been doing that thing since the 70s and even osama had to gripe about it complaining that the people there were too leftist for him during the mujahideen days. You are basically telling people to become even more exploited as part of the big new cold war.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

DancingShade posted:

They'll try the diplomacy route again only for the phone calls to go unanswered because they only know the one card trick.

A pet dog learns new tricks faster than a NATO strategist.

they could try more sanctions!

quote:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron were surprised when during their telephone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2022 the Russian leader did not mention the sanctions imposed on Moscow, the daily Bild reports.

"Something bothers me more than the talks: he [Putin] didn’t complain about the sanctions at all. I don't know if he did so in the conversation with you [Macron]. He didn't even mention them," Bild quotes Scholz as saying while talking to the French leader after talks with the Russian president. "Not with me, either," the newspaper quoted Macron's response.
https://tass.com/world/1666401

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Is there a Ukrainian version of this by chance?

Egg Moron
Jul 21, 2003

the dreams of the delighting void

When is stalker 2 coming out?

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

western leaders really are children

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022

Egg Moron posted:

When is stalker 2 coming out?

One of the Stalker devs was killed in the fighting near Bakhmut in December of last year. His face was the one used for Loki in Call of Pripyat.

So Stalker 2 might be delayed.

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
Just figured out that the war started the day the first DLC for total warhammer 3 came out. We are on DLC3.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

BearsBearsBears posted:

One of the Stalker devs was killed in the fighting near Bakhmut in December of last year. His face was the one used for Loki in Call of Pripyat.

So Stalker 2 might be delayed.

Moved on to be a community manager at frogwares a long time ago.


Unless there was another member of the STALKER studio that went on to meet the same fate.

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Bad news for Ukraine - Western establishment media (BBC) is continuing to report on the high casualties incurred by Ukrainian troops, furthering the pivot towards the Western establishment cutting its losses on Ukraine
- There has been a dramatic rise in Ukraine's number of dead, according to new estimates by unnamed US officials.
- the grim task of counting the dead has become a daily reality.
- The unknown soldiers lie piled high in a small brick mortuary
- Ukraine gives no official toll of its war dead - the Ukrainian armed forces have reiterated that their war casualty numbers are a state secret - but Margo knows the losses are huge.
- US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong.
- As recently as April, leaked estimates from the Pentagon put Ukrainian deaths at the much lower figure of 17,500. The alleged jump to more than 70,000 can be partly explained by the counter-offensive in the south. In its early days it was especially hard on Ukrainian infantry - "worse than Bakhmut" one brigade commander who is fighting there told me.
- the beginning of the push to breach Russia's occupation defences in June was costly, for young newly trained soldiers in particular. They were dying "by the dozens" every day, one senior sergeant fighting around the Donetsk village of Velyka Novosilka told me in June.
- More body bags emerge, but reporting restrictions don't allow me to say how many.
- As we spoke, Lermontov's phone buzzed. It was the mother of a soldier killed the week before. She wanted to know why young men with guns were being sent to attack Russian trenches if Ukraine had been gifted so much modern Western weaponry. But on this 600-mile front line many brigades lack the latest armoured vehicles or long-range guns. The reality is that in many of the trenches, Ukrainian soldiers have to make do. "I don't have an answer for her, she doesn't understand… we don't have everything," he told me.
- Overall Russia's casualties are far greater, some 120,000 dead according to the latest US estimate. But its army, and population, is far larger. Ukrainian soldiers at the front line say Russia's ability to absorb pain appears limitless.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

'Dying by the dozens every day' - Ukraine losses climb
Published
1 day ago

There has been a dramatic rise in Ukraine's number of dead, according to new estimates by unnamed US officials. The BBC's Quentin Sommerville has been on the front line in the east, where the grim task of counting the dead has become a daily reality.

The unknown soldiers lie piled high in a small brick mortuary, not very far from the front line in Donetsk, where 26-year-old Margo says she speaks to the dead.

"It may sound weird… but I'm the one who wants to apologise for their deaths. I want to thank them somehow. It's as if they can hear, but they can't respond."

At her cluttered desk outside the mortuary's heavy door, she sits, pen in hand. It is her job to record the particulars of the fallen.

Ukraine gives no official toll of its war dead - the Ukrainian armed forces have reiterated that their war casualty numbers are a state secret - but Margo knows the losses are huge.

The figures remain classified. But US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong. The UN has recorded 9,177 civilian deaths to date.

On Margo's inside right arm is a small tattoo of a mother and child, with the birthdate of her son recorded. Her manicured nails are painted in Ukrainian colours. She wears a black T-shirt with the words "I'M UKRAINIAN" on the front.

"The hardest is when you see a dead young guy who hasn't even reached 20, 22 years old. And realising they didn't die their own death," she says. "They were killed. They were killed for their own land. That's the most painful. You cannot get used to this. It's now getting to the point where it's just about [helping] the boys reach home."

The most difficult day of her life, she says, was when her common-law husband was brought into the mortuary on the day he died. Twenty-three-year-old Andrii was killed in battle on 29 December 2022.

"He died while defending his motherland," she says. "But then, for the umpteenth time, I've convinced myself that I should be here, I should be helping the fallen."

The job has made her hard - like steel, she says. And no matter how painful it is to see the bodies being brought into the mortuary, she says she never cries in public.

"I keep all of this inside me [until] the evening when I come home. No-one sees my tears."

As recently as April, leaked estimates from the Pentagon put Ukrainian deaths at the much lower figure of 17,500. The alleged jump to more than 70,000 can be partly explained by the counter-offensive in the south. In its early days it was especially hard on Ukrainian infantry - "worse than Bakhmut" one brigade commander who is fighting there told me. The city in Donetsk fell to Russia in May in one of the bloodiest battles of the war so far.

Ukraine has now changed tactics there, but the beginning of the push to breach Russia's occupation defences in June was costly, for young newly trained soldiers in particular. They were dying "by the dozens" every day, one senior sergeant fighting around the Donetsk village of Velyka Novosilka told me in June.

At the mortuary, one of a number along the front line, they work to put names to the unknown soldiers, who come direct from the battlefield.

Body bags are brought outside, one at a time, and the search for clues begins. Inside the first body bag is the corpse of a young man, his eyes still open, his hands folded carefully across his lap. His face is cut, and there is a gash on the side of his leg. Another body is brought out, the fingers missing on the right hand, blood and battlefield mud stain his uniform.

Their pockets are cut open by mortuary staff, still full of the artefacts of everyday life - keys, a mobile phone, a wallet with family snaps. In death, these items are now clues that might reunite the unidentified with their families.

Written in black marker pen on another body bag, the word "Unidentified" is scored out and replaced with a man's name and army company details.

More body bags emerge, but reporting restrictions don't allow me to say how many.

A group of soldiers - commanders of various ranks - arrive in an army pick-up truck and pace outside the mortuary, smoking cigarettes. They inspect one body, to see if the soldier is from their platoon, company or battalion. It looks like he was killed in an artillery strike - part of his head is missing and the wounds to his body are severe, even worse when he is turned over.

"This is difficult. Unpleasant. But it's needed, part of our job. We have to give the boys a proper send-off," says a deputy battalion commander who goes by the call sign "Avocat".

More men from his unit will be brought to aid in the identification of the body, he says.

The reality of the scale of casualties is laid bare in Ukraine's cemeteries.

In the late afternoon sun around Krasnopilske cemetery in Dnipro, the heads of the sunflowers hang heavy - an honour-guard for the freshly dug graves that spread ever closer to the perimeter.

At one such graveside, 31-year-old Oksana weeps alone. Pictures of her dead husband Pavlo gaze down on her. The bearded and brawny junior sergeant was a power-lifting champion and personal trainer. He was killed during Ukraine's previous counter-offensive, near the city of Izium in November when a missile from a Russian helicopter struck his convoy.

"He voluntarily went to defend our country," Oksana says. "He was a warrior at heart - freedom loving. He was the embodiment of our Ukrainian spirit."

It took time to identify Pavlo's body - he, along with others in the car, was badly burnt. Eventually he was recognised by a tattoo.

The yellow and blue of Ukrainian flags whip above each grave in the gentle breeze - there are hundreds of them. Each is a marker in the great tide of loss that sweeps daily across eastern and southern battlefields, filling cemeteries in towns and villages the length and breadth of Ukraine.

A year and a half into this war, few families here have been left untouched by grief.

But still, there appears to be no slackening in the will to fight. If anything, the losses have, for now, galvanised the determination for victory.

Oksana and Pavlo made a wartime pact that if he died, she would join the military. For the past two months she's been serving as part of an aerial surveillance drone unit, on the outskirts of Bakhmut.

A week after we met in the cemetery, Oksana is in full body armour and heading to a forward position in search of a Russian anti-tank unit which is targeting Ukrainian forces. When we get there, the sound of artillery, almost entirely outgoing fire, is deafening.

I ask her why she put herself in harm's way? It is her moral duty, she says, as she plays with the silver wedding ring on her right hand.

She says: "I just need to continue what he started. So, all his efforts were not in vain. Volunteering and donations are all good, but I want to be a part of it, a part of our victory in the future."

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar earlier released a statement warning that those who release casualty numbers would be liable to criminal prosecution.

"Why is this data secret?" she asked rhetorically. "Because during the active phase of the war, the enemy uses the number of dead and wounded to calculate our likely further actions… If the enemy has this information, they will begin to understand some of our next steps."

The toll of the war hangs heavy on the men of the 68th Jaeger Brigade, who are fighting to stop Russian advances on the eastern front, near the town of Kupiansk.

In 35C-plus temperatures, we sought some shelter under camouflage netting, away from the midday heat and the ever-present danger of Russian drones. A deputy battalion commander who goes by the call-sign "Lermontov" was in a reflective and dark mood. Over freshly brewed coffee, he predicted a long war.

The Russians won't stop, he said, "you can't negotiate with them". The West doesn't understand this. Young soldiers who expected to be home in a year realise now, he said, they will be gone longer.

He is a veteran of the fight in Donbas, he's been fighting Russia and its proxies since 2014. How long then did he expect this war to last? "Another 10 years," he replied.

His grim mood was understandable. On 1 August, the brigade's sergeant major and two other sergeants were killed in a single Russian mortar strike. "He was a legend," Lermontov said. The dead man's car was parked where he had left it, a few feet away. His personal belongings still inside.

As we spoke, Lermontov's phone buzzed. It was the mother of a soldier killed the week before. She wanted to know why young men with guns were being sent to attack Russian trenches if Ukraine had been gifted so much modern Western weaponry. But on this 600-mile front line many brigades lack the latest armoured vehicles or long-range guns. The reality is that in many of the trenches, Ukrainian soldiers have to make do. "I don't have an answer for her, she doesn't understand… we don't have everything," he told me.

At a medal ceremony, in the garden of a house which serves as a company base, I meet the brigade's commander, Colonel Oleksii. He had just returned from the sergeant major's funeral.

He told me: "We had two big [Russian attacks]. I think we were very successful, we found around 35 bodies. So I think basically we demolished one company."

Overall Russia's casualties are far greater, some 120,000 dead according to the latest US estimate. But its army, and population, is far larger. Ukrainian soldiers at the front line say Russia's ability to absorb pain appears limitless.

I ask Colonel Oleksii what he tells the families of the fallen.

"I just ask for forgiveness that I have not provided enough safety. Maybe I was a bad leader, bad planning. And I thank them for what they gave for this fight."

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Egg Moron posted:

When is stalker 2 coming out?

They're (no kidding) shooting for Q1 next year.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

I may actually go insane from

- The overwhelming majority of Ukraines casualties are caused by artillery

- Russia has massively more artillery

-Russia has suffered more casualties

You don’t need to know anything about the military for this not to make sense.

Calde
Jun 20, 2009

Frosted Flake posted:

I think I'm going to start a reading list for myself called "Why We're hosed" tentative titles curated from official reading lists:

Nobody Wants to Fight Anymore (cultural problems):

The Deployment Toolkit: Military Families and Solutions for a Successful Long-Distance Relationship
Military Finances : Personal Money Management for Service Members, Veterans, and Their Families
Sexual Assault in the Military : A Guide for Victims and Families
Transforming Warriors: The ritual organization of military force
American Soldiers in Iraq: McSoldiers or Innovative Professionals?
The Warrior, Military Ethics and Contemporary Warfare: Achilles Goes Asymmetrical
The Ones We Let Down: Toxic Leadership Culture and Gender Integration in the Canadian Forces
The US Military Profession into the 21st Century: War, Peace and Politics

Why NATO militaries suck (doctrine and operations):

Modern War and the Utility of Force: Challenges, Methods and Strategy
Military Strategy as Public Discourse: America's war in Afghanistan
Military Mission Formations and Hybrid Wars
International Military Operations in the 21st Century: Global Trends and the Future of Intervention
Contemporary Military Innovation: Between Anticipation and Adaption
Complex Peace Operations and Civil-Military Relations: Winning the Peace
The Evolution of Modern Land Warfare: Theory and Practice
Military Advising and Assistance: From Mercenaries to Privatization, 1815-2007

Why NATO states suck (strategy and foreign policy):

The Powell Doctrine and US Foreign Policy
Defence Diplomacy: Strategic Engagement and Interstate Conflict
Blair's Successful War: British Military Intervention in Sierra Leone
Political and Military Sociology: The European Refugee Crisis
The Future of US Warfare
British Generals in Blair’s Wars
Britain and the War on Terror: Policy, Strategy and Operations
Air Power in the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific: Understanding Regional Security Dynamics
Western Military Interventions After The Cold War
The Regime Change Consensus: Iraq in American Politics, 1990-2003

Miscellaneous (mostly RMA/tech circlejerk):

Managing the Revolution in Military Affairs
Reassessing the Revolution in Military Affairs: Transformation, Evolution and Lessons Learnt
The Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel.
The Military Revolution and Revolutions in Military Affairs (compares smart bombs to the advent of gunpowder)
The Military and Liberal Society: Societal-Military Relations in Western Europe

This owns but what I really need is a reading list on the Council of Nicaea if you've got one handy.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Calde posted:

This owns but what I really need is a reading list on the Council of Nicaea if you've got one handy.

I’m reading a very enjoyable new biography of St. Ambrose, Ambrose of Milan: Church and Court in a Christian Capital

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Frosted Flake posted:

I may actually go insane from

- The overwhelming majority of Ukraines casualties are caused by artillery

- Russia has massively more artillery

-Russia has suffered more casualties

You don’t need to know anything about the military for this not to make sense.

Bad news for the credibility of Frosted Flake - All authoritative sources confirm that Ukraine does more damage with less artillery.


https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-artillery-does-more-damage-with-fewer-rounds-than-russia-2023-4

How Ukraine's artillery is doing more damage than Russia's, even with fewer rounds
David Hambling, 19fortyfive
Apr 26, 2023, 3:54 PM UTC

In Ukraine as in previous major conflicts artillery is the biggest killer on the battlefield, accounting for perhaps 80% of casualties on both sides.

But while Ukraine has fewer guns firing fewer shells, they appear to be doing more damage even though, with some notable exceptions, they are using the same weapons as their Russian opponents. How is this possible?


The numbers game

Russia has enjoyed a huge advantage in artillery since the start of the invasion with roughly twice as many guns and MRLs, and more importantly, massive stockpiles of ammunition. Figures vary wildly, and have changed over time, but all put Russian substantially ahead in terms of shells fired.

In November NBC quoted US officials estimating Russian expenditure of 20,000 rounds per day against 4,000-7,000 for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in February that Russia was firing around four times as many shells as Ukraine. In March, Spanish newspaper El Pais quoted EU insider sources as saying that Russia was firing 40-50,000 rounds per day, compared to 5,000-6,000 for Ukraine, while Estonia (which has supplied shells to Ukraine) estimated that Russia was firing 20,000-60,000 per day compared to 2,000-7,000 from Ukraine.

So Russia is likely firing something between four and nine times as many shells as Ukraine.

And yet, Russia has suffered much higher casualties. To take just one figure, recently leaked Pentagon documents suggest 189,500-223,000 Russians killed or injured compared to 124,500-131,000 Ukrainians or 1.4 to 1.8 to 1.

Much of this can be accounted for by the fact that Russia's campaign has largely been on the offensive, while Ukraine has largely been on the defensive. Yet, for long periods we have seen largely static warfare. Russia's advantage in artillery should have been reflected in casualty figures, but this has not happened.

UK defense think tank RUSI describes the Russian army as "an artillery army with a lot of tanks," that is, one that depends on massed artillery for its striking power. In the current conflict, they appear to be outgunned by a smaller force.


Ukraine is killing more by fighting smarter

The solution to this paradox lies in the different ways that the two armies use their artillery.

While Russia has stuck mainly to Soviet doctrine of massed area fires, Ukraine uses artillery fire as a long-range sniper weapon to pick off individual targets. This has been made possible with the widespread use of two innovations: small drones for artillery spotting, coupled with cheap tablet computers running software like Nettle system to direct fire.

Back in 2014, Ukrainian volunteer organization Army-SOS set out to use its technical skill to help the military. They initially helped soldiers fly and support drones, but soon found the biggest problem was using the data gathered by drone operators efficiently. So they developed Kropyva ("Nettle") proprietary intelligence mapping software, which can run on any Android tablet.

Nettle is supplied as a tactical system compatible with NATO-standard secure communications and is used from divisional command down to individual vehicles. It maps battle lines and targets and calculates artillery fire missions. It is specifically designed to work with drones, receiving data and using it to calculate the adjustment needed. The gunner changes angle and azimuth accordingly, and shells land on target

Several other Ukraine-developed software packages — GIS Arta, ComBat Vision, and the major Delta battlefield management system — are also used to share data, locating targets and directing fire.

Ukrainian forces use a wide variety of small drones, including several locally made military-grade types such as the Leleka-100 and Spectator-M for artillery spotting, as well as thousands of DJ consumer quadcopters. The latter has a range of just a few kilometers and a flight endurance of perhaps half an hour, but their low cost means they are expendable and universally available.

In March 2022, Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the office of President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the media that a standard platoon defensive position took normally took 60-90 artillery rounds to destroy, but with drone-guided fire this was reduced to just 9 rounds, and that drones had been supplied to all artillery units. This suggests an improvement of a factor of 7-10, which is roughly what we see in the ratios of artillery shells: casualties above.

Previously, a vehicle, especially in a dug-in, camouflaged position or behind buildings or trees might not be detected until enemy forces were close by. Drone observation changes this, with small drones buzzing overhead spotting everything below in real time — not just vehicles but even individual soldiers.

Hiding behind a ridge or hill no longer helps. Given suitable software and communications which Nettle supplies, every potential target can be geolocated precisely, the coordinates passed to artillery, and rounds walked on to it.

A vast number of Ukrainian drone videos show this process in operation. In previous conflicts, concentrated artillery fire was needed to damage armored units. Now individual guns can take on the same task.

In July a Ukrainian soldier with the callsign "Balu" told Ukraine's Defence Express how his unit faced a platoon of dug-in Russian BMPs which they had been unable to destroy with direct fire from ATGMs. He says that with the aid of Nettle, artillery guided by a drone knocked out all three in quick succession.


Now everything is artillery

This approach is not limited to traditional indirect fire artillery. Increasingly drone-enabled Ukrainian tanks are acting in an indirect fire role, engaging Russian armor beyond normal combat ranges and beyond line of sight.

In August 2022, a video posted on social media showed a Ukrainian T-64BV destroying a Russian tank at a claimed range of 6.5 miles, which would make it the longest ever tank vs. tank kill. This required some 20 125mm projectiles, but the Russian could not fire back to the "duel" was entirely one-sided.

While video evidence may not be conclusive, there is more evidence at present for Ukrainian tanks being used for indirect than direct fire. The same tactic has also been observed with Ukrainian BMPs firing 73mm guns aided by drones and Nettle, and even BTR-4 with 30mm automatic cannon.

Older, supposedly obsolete weapons are being transformed into effective indirect-fire platforms. Videos show 100mm T-12 Rapira anti-tank guns dating from 1961 in this role, and even a T-12 mounted on an MT-LB tracked vehicles.

The 73mm SPG-9 recoilless rifle (from 1962), again originally a direct-fire anti-tank weapon, is being also used for precision indirect fire, as is the AGS-17 Plamya 30mm automatic grenade launcher. In this latter case, there does not seem to be any software, just the drone operator standing next to the gunner directing them, or in some cases the gunner observing the drone feed directly to adjust fire.


The pattern is consistent. Ukraine is rolling out drone-guided indirect fire at every level as rapidly as possible and to significant effect.

Russian forces are also using drone-directed fire, but suffer from a comparative shortage of drones, and, until now, a lack of support from senior commanders. While artillery units have long operated Orlan-10 drones, these are in short supply and only at battery level or above. Now there are signs that drone-directed fire is being adopted on a wider basis, even down to individual vehicles.

"We are learning to arc fire," says a crewman of a T-90M tank in a video issued by the Russian MoD in February 2023. "The range of fire varies from 4 to 12 kilometers. Everything is done with the help of a drone, which monitors how a shell flies and makes adjustments in a bid to achieve maximum precision. This is a relatively new manner of shelling, which has not been practiced before."

The difference is that the Russian system appears to use expensive military drones and software, whereas the Ukrainians have adopted commercial drones, consumer electronics and software from local start-ups at high speed.


The future of artillery in Ukraine and beyond

It is difficult to predict the lasting impact of these developments. Russia has recently had more success with jamming Ukrainian consumer drones and limiting their ability to direct fire, but jam-resistant alternatives are becoming available.

If the trend continues, then the days of artillery batteries blasting away blindly at map coordinates may be over. And direct fire, in general, may become increasingly rare as targets are engaged beyond visual range.

More advanced networked communications will see every shooter connected to multiple remote sensors. Small and increasingly autonomous drones will proliferate, and fires will be directed with ever greater speed and accuracy.

It currently looks as though big data may be more powerful than big guns, and future conflicts may be determined more by the available drone fleet and its supporting software than the number of artillery barrels. But the current conflict may still have much more to teach us.


Expert biography

David Hambling is a London-based journalist, author and consultant specializing in defense technology with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED and others. His books include "Weapons Grade: How Modern Warfare Gave Birth to Our High-tech World" (2005) and "Swarm Troopers: How small drones will conquer the world" (2015). He has been closely watching the continued evolution of small military drones. Follow him @David_Hambling.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

“David Hambling is a London-based journalist, author and consultant specializing in defense technology with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED and others. His books include "Weapons Grade: How Modern Warfare Gave Birth to Our High-tech World" (2005) and "Swarm Troopers: How small drones will conquer the world" (2015). He has been closely watching the continued evolution of small military drones. Follow him @David_Hambling.”

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"
So from Feb. 2022 to April 2023, about 17,000 AFU soldiers died in battle. But in the last three months, about 53,000 have died? That's what's being asserted here?

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The pivot from 17.5k to 70k dead is also something to behold as well, that is going to be at least 350k dead/wounded. It is why 450-550k isn’t really that impossible.

Calde
Jun 20, 2009

Frosted Flake posted:

I’m reading a very enjoyable new biography of St. Ambrose, Ambrose of Milan: Church and Court in a Christian Capital

Thank you, I'll track down a copy and get reading. The religious history tangents in CSPAM are some of my favorite posts, tbh

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Tankbuster posted:

The BLA has been doing that thing since the 70s and even osama had to gripe about it complaining that the people there were too leftist for him during the mujahideen days. You are basically telling people to become even more exploited as part of the big new cold war.

First off I'm not going to be and have not made any moral judgements and I would have to know a great deal more about the situation than I currently do to make any claims regarding their best strategy to further their interests. I know if you say in cspam that somebody is working with the CIA it can come off that way, so I should have been clearer. Sorry. I'm hardly in a position to criticize desperate people for reaching out for any help being offered and I'm well aware of that.
So do you think the BLF and the BLA are basically the same group or that the former lead directly in to the latter? Because everything I've seen indicates the BLA first popped up on people's radars in 2000.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Calde posted:

Thank you, I'll track down a copy and get reading. The religious history tangents in CSPAM are some of my favorite posts, tbh

Thanks, I have a lot of fun being able to talk about it. I just wish there were any careers in it whatsoever, compared to the 3500 people who work for the doctrine office.

There’s a better world where you get paid more for canon than cannon.

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Frosted Flake posted:

I may actually go insane from

- The overwhelming majority of Ukraines casualties are caused by artillery

- Russia has massively more artillery

-Russia has suffered more casualties

You don’t need to know anything about the military for this not to make sense.

And now you realise how many so called educated people out there don't even understand surface level algebra.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

DancingShade posted:

And now you realise how many so called educated people out there don't even understand surface level algebra.

Luckily I was neglected into strong sequential reasoning processes, per Dixon.

My dream is that I could write Gordon Corrigan style "Ripping Yarns for Suburban Dads" books, but about social and religious history. "Dad's Own Paper: A Journal of Late Antique Religious Change"

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 03:21 on Aug 31, 2023

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

Frosted Flake posted:

I may actually go insane from

- The overwhelming majority of Ukraines casualties are caused by artillery

- Russia has massively more artillery

-Russia has suffered more casualties

You don’t need to know anything about the military for this not to make sense.

sure it does - the ukrainians are causing more casualties because they have ~higher technology western weapons, western intelligence, and western warfighting advisors~, wunderwaffen and expertise unmatchable by any uneducated, stupid, smelly orcs

all the reputable journalists and outlets agree that western technology is unmatchable and our economies are the biggest and if corporate media is saying it then it must be true

both the government and corporate media both agree that they're credible sources about that, who are you to disbelieve them

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Complications posted:

sure it does - the ukrainians are causing more casualties because they have ~higher technology western weapons, western intelligence, and western warfighting advisors~, wunderwaffen and expertise unmatchable by any uneducated, stupid, smelly orcs

all the reputable journalists and outlets agree that western technology is unmatchable and our economies are the biggest and if corporate media is saying it then it must be true

both the government and corporate media both agree that they're credible sources about that, who are you to disbelieve them

It's got to be blissful, I'll say that. It makes the books written up until Jan 2022 about how financial warfare and proxy war meant the west didn't even have to think about conventional weapons very funny though. We thought we would sanction Russia into colour revolution and have been scrambling since.

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021

Weka posted:

First off I'm not going to be and have not made any moral judgements and I would have to know a great deal more about the situation than I currently do to make any claims regarding their best strategy to further their interests. I know if you say in cspam that somebody is working with the CIA it can come off that way, so I should have been clearer. Sorry. I'm hardly in a position to criticize desperate people for reaching out for any help being offered and I'm well aware of that.
So do you think the BLF and the BLA are basically the same group or that the former lead directly in to the latter? Because everything I've seen indicates the BLA first popped up on people's radars in 2000.

This entire thing could have been avoided if the folks in islamabad had been less assholish to their fellow countrymen both baluchis and punjabis could benefit from chinese investment in that area.

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Complications posted:

sure it does - the ukrainians are causing more casualties because they have ~higher technology western weapons, western intelligence, and western warfighting advisors~, wunderwaffen and expertise unmatchable by any uneducated, stupid, smelly orcs

all the reputable journalists and outlets agree that western technology is unmatchable and our economies are the biggest and if corporate media is saying it then it must be true

both the government and corporate media both agree that they're credible sources about that, who are you to disbelieve them

High teknoelogie vestern vunder veapons, ze produkt of ze superior vestern super science!

(Lightning flashes illuminating ye olde timey mad scientist laboratory)

But as a serious policy platform.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1694046574085562519?t=hqCbgJbG2qEub844V7NcDg&s=19

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Very low effort.

Ukraine must be near collapse if they can't even manage a proper offensive on the meme front.

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Hey it's keeping kids off the streets okay.

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January 6 Survivor
Jan 6, 2022

The
Nelson Mandela
of clapping
dusty old cheeks


( o(

VoicesCanBe posted:

So from Feb. 2022 to April 2023, about 17,000 AFU soldiers died in battle. But in the last three months, about 53,000 have died? That's what's being asserted here?

"So total casualties is 17k?"
"Seven-ty thousands not seven-teen."
"woops, do you think anyone noticed?"
"nah I bet we're good"

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