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SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

I swear I have this shirt somewhere but it says Tarpon Springs.

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Shifty Nipples
Apr 8, 2007

SirPablo posted:

It's all connected.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/BhatiaKieran/status/1696891340066259030?s=20
peak storm surge hit at low tide, that was good

Goa Tse-tung
Feb 11, 2008

;3

Yams Fan

gently caress You And Diebold posted:

peak storm surge hit at low tide, that was good

insane luck

Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.

biceps crimes posted:

bunch of pasty, flushed brits flailing about humorlessly, complaining about hurricanes (mild rains, slight gusts) and heatwaves (85 degree high, mild dewpoint)

A cat 3 hurricane in southern England would literally take them back to the 12th century. Cadfael would be out saving people in boats and poo poo

Chicken Butt
Oct 27, 2010

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

A cat 3 hurricane in southern England would literally take them back to the 12th century. Cadfael would be out saving people in boats and poo poo

No, they’d be fine, almost all Brits carry around emergency floatation devices.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Chicken Butt posted:

No, they’d be fine, almost all Brits carry around emergency floatation devices.

I've been informed they were all EU imports. Since Brexit apparently everyone's just been using tweed jackets on tall sticks which I do not believe are quite as seafaring.

Oglethorpe
Aug 8, 2005
Avatar blanked by Admin request.

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

Lackmaster posted:

so, all things considered it seems like Idalia wasn’t that bad?

or is this a case where the damage is so severe we won’t even know the reality for a day or two?

I would go so far as to say that given how horrible it could have been, this was approaching the very best case scenario possible.

The water in the gulf would have easily supported Idalia at a full cat 5. It hit during an EWRC (eyewall replacement cycle) which temporarily downgrades the cyclone a bit while it basically builds into a more powerful hurricane, and it moved pretty quickly, which didn't give it very long to truly scale up.

The trajectory was basically perfect, hitting where very few people live.

the overall potential of Idalia was basically off the charts, and in the worst case I am convinced it could have been one of, if not THE the worst natural disaster in USA history.

We dodged a bullet big time, but unfortunately you really need to know how cyclones work to really grock the full implications of what happens, so very few people will get that.

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

GFS do your thing.

Minneapolis all time high for September is 104F. Definitely not hitting 106F.

TACD
Oct 27, 2000

dr_rat posted:

I've been informed they were all EU imports. Since Brexit apparently everyone's just been using tweed jackets on tall sticks which I do not believe are quite as seafaring.
since brexit rain is the only reliable source of sewage-free water

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


Taima posted:

I would go so far as to say that given how horrible it could have been, this was approaching the very best case scenario possible.

The water in the gulf would have easily supported Idalia at a full cat 5. It hit during an EWRC (eyewall replacement cycle) which temporarily downgrades the cyclone a bit while it basically builds into a more powerful hurricane, and it moved pretty quickly, which didn't give it very long to truly scale up.

The trajectory was basically perfect, hitting where very few people live.

the overall potential of Idalia was basically off the charts, and in the worst case I am convinced it could have been one of, if not THE the worst natural disaster in USA history.

We dodged a bullet big time, but unfortunately you really need to know how cyclones work to really grock the full implications of what happens, so very few people will get that.
hit during low tide, as well, when it was originally forecast to make landfall a few hours earlier, during a king tide

tater_salad
Sep 15, 2007



I'm enjoying that it's 55 this morning while a large swath of the country will be cooking.

stealie72
Jan 10, 2007

JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:

hit during low tide, as well, when it was originally forecast to make landfall a few hours earlier, during a king tide
Gotta get them clicks, but kind of amazing how best case scenario this was vs the breathless worst case scenario reporting in the lead-up.

Lucky Greedo
Feb 14, 2012

At last, he held the throat of his beater.
I'm sure for a place like TWC it is about clicks, but the dire warnings from the NWC were about trying to save lives, and they most likely did. Nobody likes taking precautions for anything, but NWC isn't trying to make people comfortable; it's trying to prevent people from dying in their single-wide when 135mph winds roll it into a river or storm surge sweeps them away while they're recording tiktoks in the street during landfall or whatever. "A major storm is coming to an area that has not seen one before; Get Out" is good advice, if you have the money to follow it.

Cat Wings
Oct 12, 2012

SirPablo posted:

GFS do your thing.

Minneapolis all time high for September is 104F. Definitely not hitting 106F.

Pshhhh yah there's no way the temperature will be 2 degrees higher! That would mean the climate is changing and we all know that's not happening!




Looks like Idalia is going directly for the Bermuda hit.

Mister Bates
Aug 4, 2010
while the alternate timeline where Idalia Tokyo Drifts around to hit Florida again from the east would be grimly amusing, it is good that it now looks like that will not be happening

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

Cat Wings posted:

Pshhhh yah there's no way the temperature will be 2 degrees higher! That would mean the climate is changing and we all know that's not happening!


I've posted numerous 2m temperature maps from the GFS that have been comically high. This isn't a changing climate issue (model crisis), this is an inherent feedback issue (model bias). It's well noted within the meteorological community at this point (been around for couple summers).

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1545909993068568577

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


Idalia no, don't go wasting your life chasing after Franklin

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007
no lube anal fan

Cup Runneth Over posted:

Idalia no, don't go wasting your life chasing after Franklin

behind every great man hurricane is a woman hurricane

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/Ratnesh_speaks/status/1697278786990231620?s=20
https://twitter.com/cary_mock/status/1697279965837042002?s=20

ThatBasqueGuy
Feb 14, 2013

someone introduce jojo to lazyb


Still no power zzzzz boring rear end storm

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Cat Wings posted:



Looks like Idalia is going directly for the Bermuda hit.

It’s like a bull that’s seen the red cape.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1697339744215323137?s=20

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

I like the ones where it intensifies and goes for D.C. or NYC.

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007
no lube anal fan

lmao it double taps Boston, amazing

Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006

Red Baron posted:

lmao it double taps Boston, amazing

Like a driver who reverses and runs over a zombie again, just to make sure.

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


well that's interesting

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Red Baron posted:

lmao it double taps Boston, amazing
SHIP-ing up to Boston

ekuNNN
Nov 27, 2004

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/NationalIndNews/status/1694370029607772661

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

they should try harder to sentence the climate to death

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003


is that outdoor tile or wtf

Red Baron
Mar 9, 2007
no lube anal fan

actionjackson posted:

is that outdoor tile or wtf

it looks like it might be the outer area of a really important religious site given the giant spires in the background

caelxii
Jun 20, 2003


This definitely needs Yakkity Sax

HAIL eSATA-n
Apr 7, 2007


does it though

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/DailyContent0/status/1697431314163450263?s=20

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009
pffffff not even 150MPH winds? Yawwwwnnnn

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001
Level 8 alert? That feels like two many alert levels on that scale.

Who could possibly remember that many different levels of alert!

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

SirPablo posted:

I've posted numerous 2m temperature maps from the GFS that have been comically high. This isn't a changing climate issue (model crisis), this is an inherent feedback issue (model bias). It's well noted within the meteorological community at this point (been around for couple summers).

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1545909993068568577

my favorite part about this is all the weather apps, including the iOS weather app, that are just taking model output and using it as forecast data, so they have absolutely hilarious long range forecasts

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Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006

FlapYoJacks posted:

pffffff not even 150MPH winds? Yawwwwnnnn

East Asia usually uses 10-minute sustained winds rather than 1-minute like we use in the Atlantic basin. An Atlantic-style measurement would be notably (15-30%, if I recall correctly?) higher than the number in the image.

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