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RC and Moon Pie
May 5, 2011

Valdosta got tore the hell up. The photos I'm seeing out of there on Facebook are wild.

My old hometown had 2,300 Georgia Power customers without power ... which might be 100% of the town. Valdosta's gonna be a week before all of its lights are up. Cell service is spotty, too.

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Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

a heartwarming picture from the 7 day tropical outlook



they're all friends hanging out together :unsmith:

Jen X
Sep 29, 2014

To bring light to the darkness, whether that darkness be ignorance, injustice, apathy, or stagnation.
Gert

Binary Badger
Oct 11, 2005

Trolling Link for a decade


Ehud posted:

One of the craziest vids from Idalia was right outside Charleston. A tornado formed right next to the highway.

https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/1696993090714914957?s=20

BTW, Inside Edition interviewed the lady who was rescued from the flipped car, apart from minor bruises and lacerations she was okay. She was also five months pregnant!

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Binary Badger posted:

BTW, Inside Edition interviewed the lady who was rescued from the flipped car, apart from minor bruises and lacerations she was okay. She was also five months pregnant!

gotta name the baby Twister after that

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

that section of US 52 is about the same odds of your car doing a sick kickflip without the wind fwiw

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr
Dec 22, 2018

I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.

Mozi posted:

gotta name the baby Twister after that

Idalia/Idalio Twister Lastname

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Mozi posted:

gotta name the baby Twister after that

If its a girl, Idalia is a real kickass name to go with.

zedprime
Jun 9, 2007

yospos

Ehud posted:

a heartwarming picture from the 7 day tropical outlook



they're all friends hanging out together :unsmith:
Gert just a little bit depressed Franklin and Jose sucked up all the warm water without him.

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

They’re calling for development of this system well in advance.

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1698399000255492218?s=46

Definitely one to watch this week.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Ehud posted:

They’re calling for development of this system well in advance.

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1698399000255492218?s=46

Definitely one to watch this week.
Send that one to NC or something, we've had enough hurricanes in FL in the last 10 months, tyvm

zedprime
Jun 9, 2007

yospos
RIP in peace Gert.

AL95 getting ready to let it rip but looking like the boring wave into recurve.

Mostly bumping because 20% chance for Franklin to take on tropical characteristics again :eyepop:

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Yes the models are trending more and more towards a recurve, mainly because it's going to be pretty strong once it gets north of like PR

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

re: AL95, this is an interesting reference for what typically happens to storms on its current trajectory

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1698778812064878842?s=20

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Most of those at least attempt a recurve. Where it goes after that is the question.

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

I’m more prepared this hurricane season than last, with lots of water rotating as part of our regular routine as well as flashlights, lanterns, and batteries stored

Looking at my big expensive windows as I normally do this time of year

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

As expected.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1699075875936030807?s=20

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Still looks like a recurve but we’ll see

The faster it develops the more likely it ends up as a fish storm

Planet X
Dec 10, 2003

GOOD MORNING
Man we need rain so bad here in MD, I don't want it to wreck anything but we need to bust up this drought.

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

Thread, say hello to Lee.

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1699166368997015927?s=46

Pennywise the Frown
May 10, 2010

Upset Trowel

And it's already setting records!

https://twitter.com/LiveStormChaser/status/1699121386885714032

Cthulu Carl
Apr 16, 2006


Hi, Lee!

Planet X
Dec 10, 2003

GOOD MORNING

FlamingLiberal posted:



The faster it develops the more likely it ends up as a fish storm
Why is that? I would think if it is larger at the start, it has more momentum to push through whatever

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Planet X posted:

Why is that? I would think if it is larger at the start, it has more momentum to push through whatever
Stronger storms are going to want to push north, weaker ones go further west.

The models continue to suggest that this system is going to get picked up by a trough coming down off of the Great Lakes or Midwest that is going to pull it north. You can see it on the models where in some of them it just crawls to a stop and then veers to the north/northeast

Powered Descent
Jul 13, 2008

We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

Well of COURSE Lee is going straight for the Leeward Islands, where else would you expect it to go

Szyznyk
Mar 4, 2008

Leave Bermuda alone. They always pay well for trade goods and sugar.

zedprime
Jun 9, 2007

yospos

Planet X posted:

Why is that? I would think if it is larger at the start, it has more momentum to push through whatever
Hurricanes aren't really a thing with momentum as much as an area of angry heat energy. They really just get tossed around by other meso scale winds so the bigger they get, the more likely they catch the prevailing west->east USA fart coming off the sea board at most given moments. North American strikes then happen when they avoid such a fart or the fart stops for long enough.

big nipples big life
May 12, 2014

turn right lee

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

Morning Lee update.

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1699340674846646423?s=46

Still seems like it’s gonna be scary Cat 4 or 5 that mixes up the fishies. We’ll see!

NoSlacking
Dec 23, 2022
I'm from the UK, but I used to work on survey vessels off the coast of New Jersey/New York/Delaware and on the ships we were always very fond of tracking these storms on the NOAA site because if one was coming near us it would mean we could go into port and take a break from working because the sea state would be too bad. I had kind of forgotten about it since then, so its nice to see there's other people here who like watching them develop!

My smug grin was usually wiped off my face when i tried to leave the boat in port though. You don't get weather like that in England, that's for sure. Scary stuff.

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

Afternoon Lee update. Now a hurricane.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1699524386192314471?s=20

75mph winds right now, but could reach 130+mph in the next 72 hours.

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

Lee now a Cat 4 with sustained winds of 130mph.

Cat 1 to Cat 4 in less than 12 hours is pretty nuts.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1699888282770022421?s=20

Likely a Cat 5 by tomorrow.

More of the models now have it turning north and hitting the New England / Eastern Canada region, and there are still a lot of models that have it loving back off to the ocean.

goatface
Dec 5, 2007

I had a video of that when I was about 6.

I remember it being shit.


Grimey Drawer
Before or after wiping an island chain off the map?

Major Operation
Jan 1, 2006

I've liked a few recent videos from Tim Pandajis @ KHOU in Houston about Lee. This one is from a few hours ago (before the most recent advisory).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u3do10S9qo

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

goatface posted:

Before or after wiping an island chain off the map?

It should hang north of the islands!

There are a few models that have it hitting Bermuda, but most have it splitting Bermuda and the continental US.

Coleoptera
Feb 16, 2007

SERIOUS help for active skin.

Major Operation posted:

I've liked a few recent videos from Tim Pandajis @ KHOU in Houston about Lee. This one is from a few hours ago (before the most recent advisory).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u3do10S9qo

Thank you for this. Great explaining from him and just wow, what a storm.

Lord Awkward
Feb 16, 2012
Yeah agreed, that vid was a really good explanation, and I hope Lee stays the hell away in the Atlantic

Bathroom Surprise
Feb 15, 2005

Lord Awkward posted:

I hope Lee stays the hell away in the Atlantic

Couldn't agree more

fins
May 31, 2011

Floss Finder
holy cat5-a-moly

quote:

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has
skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds
slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum
pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased
by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours.
The hurricane has a
clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm
as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C.

Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a
low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees
Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer
southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this
could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have
little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of
intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in
12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt,
but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual
weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's
intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is
forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

...

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Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

It’s hard to wrap my head around the possibility of 180mph winds.

What a terrifying storm.

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