EU Politics: I miss Renaults(don't make fun of me)

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Doctor Malaver: May 23, 2007; Ce qui s'est pass� t'a rendu plus fort

SlowBloke posted:

There are dedicated projects to assist academic and research staffers in migration, for instance https://welcomeoffice.fvg.it/ . Going to the generic channels have biblical response times so it's better to see if the Italian region they want to emigrate to has a dedicated program.

Thanks!

Guavanaut posted:

The Nazis really didn't help, as is usually the case. I'm sure that Serbian ultranationalists would have come up with some other reason even without Nazis, but the Usta�e regarding Serbs as "race enemies" within living memory gave a lot of cover to people claiming to be anti-Nazi (actual definition) while really being anti-Nazi (Putin definition).

That's correct. Serbian ultranationalism would have had less fuel if it weren't for Croatian Usta�e's war crimes in WW2. And newly elected Franjo Tuđman's coarse national message didn't help either. However that doesn't explain why Bosniaks and Kosovars were so hatefully attacked too.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 11:54

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# ? May 30, 2024 06:07

Lord Stimperor: Jun 13, 2018; I'm a lovable meme.

EU Politics: the nazis didn't help

# ? Sep 7, 2023 12:15

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

Doctor Malaver posted:

Croatia and Slovenia, as the most developed republics, always had tensions with Belgrade/Serbia. The "Croatian Spring" of 1967-1971 was a major struggle that amounted to more than poo poo talking. Here's more than you want to know: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_Spring

Not sure how 'racial' has anything to do with any of that, though.

Ah this is interesting, it seems that a fear of cultural erasure as well as loss of autonomy was the driver behind this Spring.

e:

Lord Stimperor posted:

EU Politics: the nazis didn't help

EU Politics: the nazis didn't help last time, but maybe this time...

# ? Sep 7, 2023 12:17

Blut: Sep 11, 2009; if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Doctor Malaver posted:

Ethnic cleansing is the systematic forced removal of ethnic, racial, and religious groups from a given area, with the intent of making a region ethnically homogeneous. This very much didn't happen in Slovenia. Especially not "violent ethnic cleansing" as you put it in your earlier post.

If Spain exists for a hundred more years, will Catalan identity disappear? Maybe, maybe not. Is Castilla dominant? Yes. Would many Catalans be joyful to gain independence? Yes. However, none of that means that Spain or Castilla are ethnically cleansing Catalans.

Did you just literally copy half your post word for word from the first paragraph of the wikipedia page on ethnic cleansing? Lmao, good to see you're doing some basic background reading on the subject I guess.

If fascist Spain, which very much attempted to wipe out the cultural identities of Catalans and Basques, had existed for another hundred years then Catalan identity might well have disappeared yes. Franco was absolutely attempting to ethnically cleanse the regional identities in a slow measured way, the same way France had successfully done so with their regional identities in previous centuries.

Again - go to talk to some actual older Slovenes, if you're apparently so nearby. They fought for, died for, and celebrated hugely their independence for a reason. Its absolutely bizarre that you're trying to minimize their suffering in Yugoslavia.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 13:13

Private Speech: Mar 30, 2011; I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.

Blut posted:

Did you just literally copy half your post word for word from the first paragraph of the wikipedia page on ethnic cleansing? Lmao, good to see you're doing some basic background reading on the subject I guess.

If fascist Spain, which very much attempted to wipe out the cultural identities of Catalans and Basques, had existed for another hundred years then Catalan identity might well have disappeared yes. Franco was absolutely attempting to ethnically cleanse the regional identities in a slow measured way, the same way France had successfully done so with their regional identities in previous centuries.

Again - go to talk to some actual older Slovenes, if you're apparently so nearby. They fought for, died for, and celebrated hugely their independence for a reason. Its absolutely bizarre that you're trying to minimize their suffering in Yugoslavia.

It's all relative, they were the least affected overall.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 13:17

breadshaped: Apr 1, 2010; Soiled Meat

So in light of how popular the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is in the US and how fast it may accelerate them in renewable infrastructure, what the hell is the EU going to do now?

All of these anti-competitive, state aid rules have us spiraling in a flushing toilet of neoliberalism and there is seemingly no way out. The world's superpowers are engaging in a full on race for who can spend the most public money on getting poo poo done and it feels like we are heading straight for another decade of tightening our belt and fiscal responsibility all over again.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 14:31

Doctor Malaver: May 23, 2007; Ce qui s'est pass� t'a rendu plus fort

Blut posted:

Did you just literally copy half your post word for word from the first paragraph of the wikipedia page on ethnic cleansing? Lmao, good to see you're doing some basic background reading on the subject I guess.

If fascist Spain, which very much attempted to wipe out the cultural identities of Catalans and Basques, had existed for another hundred years then Catalan identity might well have disappeared yes. Franco was absolutely attempting to ethnically cleanse the regional identities in a slow measured way, the same way France had successfully done so with their regional identities in previous centuries.

Again - go to talk to some actual older Slovenes, if you're apparently so nearby. They fought for, died for, and celebrated hugely their independence for a reason. Its absolutely bizarre that you're trying to minimize their suffering in Yugoslavia.

I suffered while reading your idiotic posts and yet I don't claim that you violently ethnically cleansed me.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 15:30

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Blut posted:

Did you just literally copy half your post word for word from the first paragraph of the wikipedia page on ethnic cleansing? Lmao, good to see you're doing some basic background reading on the subject I guess.

If fascist Spain, which very much attempted to wipe out the cultural identities of Catalans and Basques, had existed for another hundred years then Catalan identity might well have disappeared yes. Franco was absolutely attempting to ethnically cleanse the regional identities in a slow measured way, the same way France had successfully done so with their regional identities in previous centuries.

Again - go to talk to some actual older Slovenes, if you're apparently so nearby. They fought for, died for, and celebrated hugely their independence for a reason. Its absolutely bizarre that you're trying to minimize their suffering in Yugoslavia.

Ethnic cleansing and genocide are not the same thing. What fascist Spain was doing was attempting cultural genocide, where the people remain but their culture is stamped out. The "nicest" form of ethnic cleansing is the opposite, where the people are made to leave, but they and their culture survive. Obviously ethnic cleansing and genocide can overlap, when the way you get rid of a people is by killing them, but they do not have to.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 16:44

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

those 19 deaths were actually 70% of slovenia's population

# ? Sep 7, 2023 16:54

khwarezm: Oct 26, 2010; Deal with it.

khwarezm posted:

Lemonde: The GDP gap between Europe and the United States is now 80%.

Leaving aside some of the questionable elements in the article like the line "The triumph of Tesla is making Mercedes and BMW look outdated" which is laughable given my understanding of the reality of Tesla, I think this relative weakening of Europe's economy compared to the US with seemingly no interest in rectifying this problem is extremely concerning, it seems like the whole continent is trapped in a downward thrust when you consider things like energy costs and demographics. We can brag about health care and stuff like that compared to America but our services have to be paid somehow and I think most people feel that the quality of public services have continually gotten worse throughout their life with seemingly no sign of improvement. How long until you start seeing significant immigration to America again if this keeps up?

There's also the short piece from the Franklin Institute on some similar topics.

More bad news in Germany.

Europe really does seem to be locked into long term decline, especially compared to the other major economic powers.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 21:23

mortons stork: Oct 13, 2012

Vassal continent will be forced to self-cripple so as not to outshine its decaying colonial master. The circle of life.

# ? Sep 7, 2023 21:34

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

mortons stork posted:

Vassal continent will be forced to self-cripple so as not to outshine its decaying colonial master. The circle of life.

I think Germany deciding to tank Europe�s economy starting ~2010 because of their fake inflation PTSD is totally on them

# ? Sep 7, 2023 22:04

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Badger of Basra posted:

I think Germany deciding to tank Europe�s economy starting ~2010 because of their fake inflation PTSD is totally on them

Maybe Germany is the decaying colonial master?

# ? Sep 8, 2023 05:26

Torrannor: Apr 27, 2013; ---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

I'm by no means an expert, but I remember Germany being the Sick Man of Europe around the turn of the millennium, and then being a model to follow ten years later. Can all of this just be cyclical?

# ? Sep 8, 2023 06:31

Owling Howl: Jul 17, 2019

Torrannor posted:

I'm by no means an expert, but I remember Germany being the Sick Man of Europe around the turn of the millennium, and then being a model to follow ten years later. Can all of this just be cyclical?

Germany is highly dependent on heavy industry and relatively high-tech exports which has been fueled by reasonably cheap fossil fuels. Now China is moving into this niche - look at competition in EVs and windmills for instance. Meanwhile the era of cheap gas is over re: War in Ukraine and the energy transition will generally mean higher energy prices. On top of that German demographics are problematic.

Basically things are changing and the current German economic model probably won't work in the coming decades. Germany should reform and adapt to a new reality. The German government and electorate may be unwilling to do so or they may succeed or fail to do it to whatever degree.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 08:44

His Divine Shadow: Aug 7, 2000; I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

Demographics wise Chinas problems are possibly worse than Germanys so we can call them equal on that front. Regardless I think we should prepare for more sensible belt tightening until we are all dead.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 08:58

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

breadshaped posted:

So in light of how popular the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is in the US and how fast it may accelerate them in renewable infrastructure, what the hell is the EU going to do now?

All of these anti-competitive, state aid rules have us spiraling in a flushing toilet of neoliberalism and there is seemingly no way out. The world's superpowers are engaging in a full on race for who can spend the most public money on getting poo poo done and it feels like we are heading straight for another decade of tightening our belt and fiscal responsibility all over again.

I think the EU equivalent of the IRA is the pandemic recovery fund, which is also in the range of $1 trillion. Although IIRC a larger share of that are going to be EU backed loans, instead of direct transfers like with the IRA.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 09:05

Torrannor: Apr 27, 2013; ---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

There's always the possibility that president Trump will drive the US economy off a cliff in 2025.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 09:08

Owling Howl: Jul 17, 2019

GABA ghoul posted:

I think the EU equivalent of the IRA is the pandemic recovery fund, which is also in the range of $1 trillion. Although IIRC a larger share of that are going to be EU backed loans, instead of direct transfers like with the IRA.

The problem is

Reuters posted:

It is a tale of two economies. In the United States, the Fed�s steep increase in interest rates appears to have succeeded in guiding inflation towards the central bank�s 2% target without causing a recession. The ECB�s similarly aggressive tightening has been less successful in cooling growth in consumer prices, yet risks tipping the bloc into a downturn.

While

Reuters posted:

One bright spot is the region�s workers. The euro zone�s unemployment rate is at an historic low of 6.4%, largely because companies embarked on a hiring spree to meet the spike in demand for goods and services after Covid-19. And they are not done yet. Around 3% of available jobs in the bloc are currently vacant, close to the 3.2% record reached in the second quarter of 2022. At the current pace, it will take until 2026 for the vacancy rate to return to its pre-Covid level, reckons Capital Economics.

Spending cash is great but if there are no available workers you're just driving up inflation and cost of living without much actual increased economic activity.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 09:35

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Torrannor posted:

There's always the possibility that president Trump will drive the US economy off a cliff in 2025.

Whenever the US drives its economy off a cliff, it lands in the EU's house, before driving up to a new cliff while the EU spends twice as long trying to rebuilt.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 10:56

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

Owling Howl posted:

The problem is

While

Spending cash is great but if there are no available workers you're just driving up inflation and cost of living without much actual increased economic activity.

I don't think most of the regions that actually qualify for money from the recovery fund are anywhere close to full employment. The EU is much bigger than the Eurozone and very diverse in terms of economic development. Some regions in Spain and Italy still have a youth unemployment rate north of 20%.

Inflation in Europe is much more driven by high fossil fuels prices than in the US so I'm really not surprised that monetary policy has less effect on it. Our own idiotic appeasement policy towards Russia post-2014 is what got us into this situation.

But yeah, the US has a much more dynamic and productive economy than Europe and it's always been that way since the end of the war. I really don't want it any other way though, considering these productivity gains are bought with horrid labor practices and socio-economic inequality.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 11:36

Blut: Sep 11, 2009; if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Doctor Malaver posted:

I suffered while reading your idiotic posts and yet I don't claim that you violently ethnically cleansed me.

I do hope you've gone back to wikipedia to further study the meaning of the term so. Once you've parsed that you might even move onto some academic work on the subject matter!

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Ethnic cleansing and genocide are not the same thing. What fascist Spain was doing was attempting cultural genocide, where the people remain but their culture is stamped out. The "nicest" form of ethnic cleansing is the opposite, where the people are made to leave, but they and their culture survive. Obviously ethnic cleansing and genocide can overlap, when the way you get rid of a people is by killing them, but they do not have to.

The lines between ethnic cleansing and cultural genocide are very blurry at best. Wiping out a distinct ethnicity in your area of control - either culturally, or physically, fits all practical definitions of ethnic cleansing. They've got the same end goal - removing the problematic minority from your soon-to-be monocultural nation state.

The key point overall being both Spain and Serbia were, and are, unreasonably lovely to ethnic groups they deem inferior I guess.

# ? Sep 8, 2023 16:42

SlowBloke: Aug 14, 2017

Owling Howl posted:

The problem is

While

Spending cash is great but if there are no available workers you're just driving up inflation and cost of living without much actual increased economic activity.

It's a artificial issue in Italy, since the "missing" workers are due to incredibly poo poo wages for new employees and minimal raises for existing ones. Lot of white collar jobs are being offered at wages lower than unemployment, with the usual small business owner cries of "nobody wants to work anymore".

# ? Sep 9, 2023 07:35

Zudgemud: Mar 1, 2009; Grimey Drawer

SlowBloke posted:

It's a artificial issue in Italy, since the "missing" workers are due to incredibly poo poo wages for new employees and minimal raises for existing ones. Lot of white collar jobs are being offered at wages lower than unemployment, with the usual small business owner cries of "nobody wants to work anymore".

Sounds like a good opportunity to slash unemployment benefits!

# ? Sep 10, 2023 21:02

mortons stork: Oct 13, 2012

Funny you mention that

# ? Sep 10, 2023 22:40

Bright Bart: Apr 27, 2020; False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped

Austrian Foreign Minister:

*invites Putin as personal guest to her wedding, dances with him*: You're making politics of a light-hearted olive branch. I am not a Russian agent!

*gets job at RT* I applied to many agencies and this just fits for my work-life balance and for my family. I am not a Russian agent!

*starts think tank headquartered in Russia* It's important to promote discourse everywhere. I am not a Russian agent!

*visits Russia at least once every other month and often more frequently* It's a beautiful country! I am not a Russian agent!

*fucks off to Russia, having everything she owns shipped* To be fair I am betraying the West NOW, I wasn't a Russian agent THEN.

Bright Bart fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Sep 17, 2023

# ? Sep 14, 2023 21:48

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

Being fair an Austrian betraying in favour of Russia is novel.

# ? Sep 17, 2023 13:15

Bright Bart: Apr 27, 2020; False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped

I was going to say that Austrian politicians turning to Moscow should suggest we don't have to worry about them sliding back towards facism.

But it doesn't suggest that. At all. Quite the opposite really.

# ? Sep 17, 2023 13:49

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

Yeah sadly the other side of it, Russia sliding* into authoritarianism, seems to be a tale as old as time.

*this happened decades ago I know

# ? Sep 17, 2023 20:03

Bright Bart: Apr 27, 2020; False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped

Slovakian frontrunner talks a lot of poo poo:

You can totally trust him now because when he was corrupt the last time as PM, leading to the biggest protests since the fall of the USSR, he was a liberal and now he's a conservative. (Obviously this one gets raised the least frequently.)

He will protect Slovakia from "the West". (What's wrong with the West? Better economies, more efficient militaries, more freedom, cooler art, better (although still highly lacking) human rights, less alcohol and other drug abuse, fewer serious STIs etc. etc.)

We need "Slavonic brotherhood". (I'm not sure if he knows this particular phrasing is the codename for a certain joint military exercise but at this point it wouldn't shock me if he did.)

# ? Sep 30, 2023 08:42

Bright Bart: Apr 27, 2020; False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped

He won.

The flaw with the West is that it's not able to project its stengths. How a people could view the opposite on their part of the continent and say 'I want that' is well beyond me.

Bright Bart fucked around with this message at 07:20 on Oct 1, 2023

# ? Oct 1, 2023 07:04

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

lol i saw an exit poll and article that had the liberals in first and now that the results are in their vote share is wildly different

edit the poll also had SNS not entering parliament

i say swears online fucked around with this message at 07:11 on Oct 1, 2023

# ? Oct 1, 2023 07:09

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Bright Bart posted:

He won.

The flaw with the West is that it's not able to project its stengths. How a people could view the opposite on their part of the continent and say 'I want that' is well beyond me.

The European establishment are defenceless against people making poo poo up.

# ? Oct 1, 2023 11:15

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; Can't post for 6 hours!

Bright Bart posted:

He won.

The flaw with the West is that it's not able to project its stengths. How a people could view the opposite on their part of the continent and say 'I want that' is well beyond me.

i suspect that libya begs to differ

# ? Oct 1, 2023 11:46

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

V. Illych L. posted:

i suspect that libya begs to differ

That was projecting weakness.

# ? Oct 1, 2023 11:53

mortons stork: Oct 13, 2012

a pipe smoking dog posted:

The European establishment are defenceless against people making poo poo up.

it has been, after all, their preferred strategy for dealing with socioeconomic and the mounting environmental crises now facing us.

# ? Oct 1, 2023 12:14

Bright Bart: Apr 27, 2020; False. There is only one electron and it has never stopped

V. Illych L. posted:

i suspect that libya begs to differ

What I should have written is "What's wrong with being a part of the West?" It can be vile to those outside its ranks, whether or on purpose or by colossal error. But I also don't think a country turning eastwards in Europe politically is going to make them any less of a dick.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

That was projecting weakness.

Yup.

a pipe smoking dog posted:

The European establishment are defenceless against people making poo poo up.

Utterly defenseless. Both on local and international issues. In Polish elections ~a decade ago the news interviewed people from rural areas saying they're voting for the conservatives because 'Warsaw is full of immigrant bandits, people walk naked through the streets and set fire to churches, you can't get a job unless you're LGBT, and the government forces men to wear dresses in public'. If they can't convince these retirees living just 50 km outside the capital none of this is true what chance do we have?

Meanwhile Russia and some others like it have much (not all) of their people thinking that this not only applies throughout the EU's urban AND rural areas but that nobody should believe statistics or even their own eyes because things are just dandy. Or that any problems come from Brussels and Soros.

It's hard to blame anyone too much for this. It could be human nature. You dress an out of shape guy in a surplus uniform, pin fake medals on him, and have him bluster and he'll be taken as the earnest, masculine patriot who knows what he's talking about and can be trusted. That's the world over.

# ? Oct 1, 2023 12:24

khwarezm: Oct 26, 2010; Deal with it.

More from the Financial Times on Europe's poor economic performance compared to America

Increasingly looks to me like a death spiral we won't be able to extract ourselves out of, I wonder if European immigration to America will start to increase again in the next few decades?

# ? Oct 20, 2023 00:41

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

khwarezm posted:

More from the Financial Times on Europe's poor economic performance compared to America

Increasingly looks to me like a death spiral we won't be able to extract ourselves out of, I wonder if European immigration to America will start to increase again in the next few decades?

Paywall. Can we have a summary?

# ? Oct 20, 2023 07:09

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# ? May 30, 2024 06:07

His Divine Shadow: Aug 7, 2000; I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

You can use archive.ph

quote:

The US economy�s lead over that of Europe, a trend first evident in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and cemented during the coronavirus pandemic, is set to last into 2024 and beyond.

The IMF last week became the latest economics organisation to declare that the US economy would power ahead, forecasting an expansion of 1.5 per cent next year. This compares with IMF forecasts of 1.2 per cent for the eurozone and 0.6 per cent for the UK.
But what explains the persistent divergence between two of the world�s richest regions, in which the US has grown at roughly double the pace of the eurozone and the UK over the past two decades?

The reasons range from cyclical to structural. Relatively short-term factors such as post-pandemic stimulus and Russia�s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have played into the difference, but so have underlying divergences such as access to credit and investment trends, along with industrial composition and demographics.

Here is a breakdown of some of the factors:
Stronger pandemic stimulus boosts spending
During the pandemic, officials on both sides of the Atlantic resorted to aggressive fiscal stimulus to stop a health crisis from turning into an economic one.

However, the US did so at a greater scale. After registering a double-digit shortfall in 2020, the primary government deficit for 2021 was still a massive 9.4 per cent of GDP in the US, more than double the level of the eurozone and almost double that of the UK.
�The US experienced a particularly strong fiscal response after the pandemic, which supported the economy,� said Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics.
The generous government support has helped drive a recovery in US consumer spending, one of the prime reasons why growth in the country has been so strong.

The US economy has grown more than many European countries

Repercussions from Russia�s invasion of Ukraine
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF�s chief economist, said European households may have been more �prudent� than their US counterparts for other reasons, including their proximity to the war in Ukraine.
Gourinchas argued that Europe�s �brutal� energy price shock � another consequence of Russia�s invasion � has been the �most important� driver of the two regions� recent economic divergence.

The wholesale European gas price surged to a record high, much higher than the US equivalent, in the aftermath of Russia�s February 2022 invasion. That pushed the consumer inflation rate for energy up to 59 per cent in the UK and 44 per cent in the eurozone.

European gas price rose more than in the US

�The region is poor when energy prices are high,� Gourinchas said of Europe during the fund�s annual meetings in Marrakech.
Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at the investment company T Rowe Price, agreed. �Europe�s main source of energy has turned out to be unreliable,� he said.

The US�s booming tech sector
A critical structural factor behind the US-European divergence is the difference in the industrial composition of the two economies.
The US has a booming tech sector, with successful and innovative companies such as Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft that have no European equivalents in Europe. With the US dominating artificial intelligence, that gap is likely to widen, economists warn.
By contrast, Europe specialises in industries that are increasingly facing the threat of Chinese competition, such as electric vehicles.

Europe, and Germany in particular, were �a massive winner [from] globalisation the way it existed until 2018, but that type of globalisation now seems to be over,� said Christian Keller, head of economics research at Barclays Investment Bank.
Header logo

The US tech sector has no comparison in Europe

The US is also proving more nimble in shifting its economy towards green technology.
The $369bn Inflation Reduction Act has helped to incentivise investment in green technologies, with hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and tax credits. The EU response has been slower and more complex to implement, according to many economists.
Attracted by the IRA, some European companies have shifted investment to the US, including Total Energies, BMW and Northvolt.
�There�s definitely an investment renaissance in the US right now,� said Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.
Invest in the US

Easier access to finance has long helped the US economy, including its tech sector, to boom.
More venture capital, and better developed debt and equity markets, have made it easier for US companies to fund their expansion than their European counterparts, which rely much more on banks. Europe has also endured a sovereign debt crisis and fiscal austerity � both of which have hit investment.

In AI alone, venture capital investment over the past decade has topped $450bn, nearly 10 times that of the eurozone or the UK, according to data from the OECD.
�The ability to raise large sums, to finance quite risky investment, just isn�t there [in Europe],� said Keller. �The European bank finance model doesn�t allow it.�

Nathan Sheets, chief economist at US bank Citi, flagged that venture capital had provided a �flexible financing mechanism� for tech. �I�m sure it is easier to pitch tech ideas to a venture capital firm in Silicon Valley than it would be to pitch it to a large European bank,� he added.

Businesses can be scaled up more quickly in the US, as the country offers a large market with a consistent language and regulatory system, aiding innovation. Despite its single market, Europe is still in many ways fragmented, particularly in the services sector.

Innovation from top US universities, such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on the east coast and Stanford on the west, has also helped.
�Once you have that agglomeration of expertise it tends to kind of proliferate,� said Sheets.
Those factors have helped boost US investment and productivity, a crucial determinant of living standards, much more than in Europe.

An ageing society and weak labour market
Europe�s rapidly ageing population and weaker population growth is weighing on the continent�s public finances. It is also having an impact on the gap with the US, which � unlike Europe � has seen its working-age population expand since 2010, albeit at an increasingly slow pace.
�Europe has grappled with low productivity growth for some time, and the effects of population ageing and labour supply constraints are starting to bite,� said Alfred Kammer, the IMF�s Europe director, earlier this month.
Without the differences in demographics, the gap between transatlantic growth would be less stark.
However, demographic trends in the coming decades are also set to work in the US�s favour.
Header logo

Europe's working-age population is shrinking

Wieladek also noted that European growth had been aided by labour market tailwinds in recent decades, such as more women and older people working.

�The wages of skilled eastern European workers are rising rapidly,� he said. �Social reform in western Europe � which contributed to raising labour market participation � has likely reached its limits.�
An ever-widening gap?

With stronger investment and better demographics, the gap between the US and Europe is likely to widen further in the coming years.

�The US could increase its potential growth while Europe struggles to maintain the lower growth it already had,� said Keller.
A European catch-up �seems quite unlikely�, said Samy Chaar, chief economist at the bank Lombard Odier.
Recommended

Euro�s weakness reveals the worries over the eurozone economy

Sven Jari Stehn, economist at investment bank Goldman Sachs, agreed that the US would �continue to outgrow the euro area in coming years�, even if the temporary post-pandemic factors fade.
However, the high US deficit � it is set to boost public debt from the current 97 per cent of GDP to 119 per cent by 2033, a record high � poses a threat to its growth.
�The US will have to take tough decisions on the fiscal side,� said Keller.

So my summary of Europe cons as I interpret the article:

-Old fashioned banking sector, lack of venture capital "culture" for startups

-Lack of a bleeding edge tech sector

-Lack of equivalents to cutting edge R&D like Stanford and MIT

-Reliance on making products facing chinese competition

-Aging population, lack of population growth

-Austerity measures crippling growth

-No answer to IRA

-Oh and energy issues

His Divine Shadow fucked around with this message at 07:35 on Oct 20, 2023

# ? Oct 20, 2023 07:30

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