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Just to clarify: The ”reflections” are from Pro-Russia account propagandists analyzing a pixel from a car roof in a grainy video. There is no solid evidence for the missile’s direction. The direction is tea-leaf-read from blurry supposed reflections, and the same pages claim Associated Press has edited the damning reflection away from the video. It’s absolutely possible failed intercepts or improper launches are to blame. However, right now those certain lines are verbatim from Kremlin accounts. The fact that it even is "a HARM" comes from those same mouth pieces claiming that only HARMs make an explosion like that on the video, overlaid with HARM impacts from training videos. (lol). There’s certain value to checking up on the Kremlin mouthpiece Twitter and IG feeds because you can see the precision at which _certain_ posters repeat every single line from them. Vahakyla fucked around with this message at 04:35 on Sep 11, 2023 |
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Sep 11, 2023 03:56
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Why would you use a HARM to attack a market? It's a specialized weapon for attacking radars and would be a waste to just dumbfire it into some buildings.
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Sep 11, 2023 04:14
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such is the evil of HATO
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Sep 11, 2023 04:18
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I was gonna take the 6er bet as long as it was a week and we stopped talking about it until there was actual concrete information.
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Sep 11, 2023 04:19
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Barcley posted:Why would you use a HARM to attack a market? It's a specialized weapon for attacking radars and would be a waste to just dumbfire it into some buildings. He was trying to imply/claim that the HARM missile locked onto its own launcher that apparently fired from the middle of a crowded market. Anyways it is funny that for his all "I'm just asking questions!" all of his arguments came straight from Russian shills.
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Sep 11, 2023 04:20
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I've said it before, but HARM is an A+ name for a weapon
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Sep 11, 2023 04:22
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I'll take a sixer for saying Putin loves horse cum I mean it's just as falsifiable, but we have stronger evidence of my claims in the form of many anecdotes.
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Sep 11, 2023 04:27
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Barcley posted:Why would you use a HARM to attack a market? It's a specialized weapon for attacking radars and would be a waste to just dumbfire it into some buildings. because it also homes in on 5G internet from tiktokers phones
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Sep 11, 2023 05:02
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missiles go off course and hit poo poo sometimes, see: ukrainian s-300 that hit poland a while back. in any case i think the most likely culprit for a missile strike on a ukrainian city is russia, which seems to have a history of launching missiles at targets in ukrainian cities
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Sep 11, 2023 05:23
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OctaMurk posted:
Big if true more seriously, what I don't get is why Russia is even trying to have their state shills fog the issue on this. Why pretend that this missile is a false flag when they admit to all the others? Just general "nothing is ever true or false" bullshit? If Putin would false flag himself it would save the rest of the world a lot of stress. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 05:39 on Sep 11, 2023 |
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Sep 11, 2023 05:27
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Barcley posted:Why would you use a HARM to attack a market? It's a specialized weapon for attacking radars and would be a waste to just dumbfire it into some buildings. Among the many other reasons this idea is incredibly stupid, I'm not sure you even can dumbfire the HARM into some buildings. According to this prepar3d aircraft vendor manual, there are a bunch of modes that must see the emitter and if they don't will explode harmlessly well above the ground, and exactly one that maybe enables you to blow up a specific set of coordinates regardless of what the missile sensor sees, which has to be programmed in on the ground beforehand, and potentially requires normal/full communication with the missile by the crew in flight that it doesn't sound like Ukraine has (which isn't surprising, since they aren't launching them from NATO aircraft). And yeah, even if you buy that the sim product is accurate and you actually can brief an arbitrary set of coordinates and get the missile to blow up on the ground at that point, why? Why would you use a highly valuable specialized tool like a HARM, why would you blow up your own people to begin with, how did you get ground and flight crews to agree to blow up their innocent countrymen, why would you do your counterproductive and stupid false flag in the most expensive and circuitous way possible, ... I don't mean to kick the guy when he's down/probed but this is such a bizarre idea to me. TheWeedNumber posted:because it also homes in on 5G internet from tiktokers phones of course 
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Sep 11, 2023 05:32
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OctaMurk posted:missiles go off course and hit poo poo sometimes, see: ukrainian s-300 that hit poland a while back. It'd be less transparently stupid and obvious an attempt to baselessly attack Ukraine because he heard his favorite Russian shills claim it was "confirmed HARM", if he hadn't started talking about it being a HARM missile that doubled back and hit its launcher or something, because unless Ukraine has come up with something brand new, HARM aren't launched from ground launchers. Yaknow, being aircraft missiles.
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Sep 11, 2023 05:37
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Flyinglemur posted:Maybe the missile knew where it was, but not where it wasn't impossible. the missile knows where it is because it knows where it isn't
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Sep 11, 2023 06:00
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Kchama posted:It'd be less transparently stupid and obvious an attempt to baselessly attack Ukraine because he heard his favorite Russian shills claim it was "confirmed HARM", if he hadn't started talking about it being a HARM missile that doubled back and hit its launcher or something, because unless Ukraine has come up with something brand new, HARM aren't launched from ground launchers. Yaknow, being aircraft missiles.
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Sep 11, 2023 06:15
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Oh wow, a bunch of new posts in the Ukraine thread after a long weekend camping! I wonder if Ukrainian forces were able to capitalize on the progress towards Robotyne... ... Nope, just lovely russian projection leaking again. Just catching up from ISW, looks like russia conducted another wave of terror bombing with iranian drones against schools, apartments, and hospitals this time around: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2023
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Sep 11, 2023 06:17
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tiaz posted:Among the many other reasons this idea is incredibly stupid, I'm not sure you even can dumbfire the HARM into some buildings. According to this prepar3d aircraft vendor manual, there are a bunch of modes that must see the emitter and if they don't will explode harmlessly well above the ground, and exactly one that maybe enables you to blow up a specific set of coordinates regardless of what the missile sensor sees, which has to be programmed in on the ground beforehand, and potentially requires normal/full communication with the missile by the crew in flight that it doesn't sound like Ukraine has (which isn't surprising, since they aren't launching them from NATO aircraft). Naw, in Pre-briefed mode it flies up high over the spot and looks down for an emitter.
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Sep 11, 2023 06:27
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Kchama posted:It'd be less transparently stupid and obvious an attempt to baselessly attack Ukraine because he heard his favorite Russian shills claim it was "confirmed HARM", if he hadn't started talking about it being a HARM missile that doubled back and hit its launcher or something, because unless Ukraine has come up with something brand new, HARM aren't launched from ground launchers. Yaknow, being aircraft missiles. Not to mention, if you did rig up a ground launcher for it, A: why? It's not an anti-missile missile, it goes after radar emitters. Maybe awkward missile artillery against a SAM, I guess? But SAMs are all they're good against, to the best of my knowledge. B: why would you put a radar on that jury-rigged launcher, which your HARM could turn around and hit? Again, it's not an anti-aircraft or anti-missile missile so what would you be hoping to detect and shoot at with your radar? C: you can't guide a HARM with a fire control radar anyway. You give it a radar type to home in on, optionally give it coordinates to reach before it starts looking, and send it off on its way. It does not guide using reflected radar energy bouncing off the target, it guides based on the specific kind of emissions of the model of radar you're trying to destroy. D: it doesn't seek out "any radar", you tell it what kind. This isn't like an old torpedo seeking the loudest submarine noise, turning around and blowing up the launching sub. So unless you're using the exact same FCR as what you're hunting (again, why would you do this because those are SAM radars and you're not hunting aircraft) it's not going to turn around and track your own radar. Unless I'm missing something here (and I could well be, I just play sims, I'm not an expert), it doesn't make any sense. Hyperlynx fucked around with this message at 13:22 on Sep 11, 2023 |
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Sep 11, 2023 06:30
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Jarmak posted:Naw, in Pre-briefed mode it flies up high over the spot and looks down for an emitter. yeah, there's a very confusing paragraph about pre-briefed's target-of-opportunity submode, I guess I'll call it? which supposedly doesn't require an emitter but has to be programmed from the aircraft, somehow. which sounds like it might be a sim-specific feature and there are no irl modes that would blow up on the ground without detecting an emitter to kill. e: anyway, the grognard war thunder manual leak lite reasons I brought up are way down the line past where the idea became ridiculous, so. even if it's theoretically possible it's absurd to entertain, though I am enjoying learning more about the HARM. tiaz fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Sep 11, 2023 |
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Sep 11, 2023 06:34
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tiaz posted:yeah, there's a very confusing paragraph about pre-briefed's target-of-opportunity submode, I guess I'll call it? which supposedly doesn't require an emitter but has to be programmed from the aircraft, somehow. which sounds like it might be a sim-specific feature and there are no irl modes that would blow up on the ground without detecting an emitter to kill. Oh good call, I missed that. Still makes no sense.
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Sep 11, 2023 06:46
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Catatron Prime posted:Oh wow, a bunch of new posts in the Ukraine thread after a long weekend camping! I wonder if Ukrainian forces were able to capitalize on the progress towards Robotyne... Good news on that front, tanks are back on the menu. There's some wild stuff in this update, plausible, but wild - a spotter drone warning a tank of an incoming Lancet for one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thgJd1qjcqQ
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Sep 11, 2023 08:03
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Catatron Prime posted:Oh wow, a bunch of new posts in the Ukraine thread after a long weekend camping! I wonder if Ukrainian forces were able to capitalize on the progress towards Robotyne... They're also tantalizingly close to the next line of defense, with the salient(is that word appropriate? I always worry I'm using it wrong) pushing out little feelers in all directions.
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Sep 11, 2023 09:00
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mllaneza posted:Good news on that front, tanks are back on the menu. There's some wild stuff in this update, plausible, but wild - a spotter drone warning a tank of an incoming Lancet for one. "recovering a stuck Russian tank" That tank has a white cross on it, it's Ukrainian. This channel keeps getting recommended by goons, so take it as a caution about the quality of his fact-checking.
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Sep 11, 2023 09:04
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Hannibal Rex posted:"recovering a stuck Russian tank" Noticed that as well, annoying to be sure. 
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Sep 11, 2023 09:13
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There's like a gazillion different youtube channels now all pumping out near-daily LATEST FRONTLINE NEWS FROM UKRAINE type videos. A lot of it feels extremely clickbait-y tbh, but there's some good ones like Suchomimus that on occasion cover interesting osint/geolocation type stuff.
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Sep 11, 2023 11:00
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What weapons is Russia hoping to get from North Korea? I'd guess they've got a poo poo ton of artillery and shells. Do they manufacture much themselves?
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Sep 11, 2023 12:33
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Laughing Zealot posted:What weapons is Russia hoping to get from North Korea? I'd guess they've got a poo poo ton of artillery and shells. Do they manufacture much themselves? Ammunition, specifically artillery shells. I'm sure some is manufactured locally and some is stockpiled from the 80s. IIRC, both Russia and China had been pretty good about not helping them dodge sanctions on arms sales since neither really stood to gain from them destabilizing the peninsula
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Sep 11, 2023 12:55
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Sounds like good progress https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1700903726779613472 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-has-retaken-offshore-drilling-platforms-near-crimea-2023-09-11/
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Sep 11, 2023 13:09
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Big if true I can think of two reasons. Maybe they are feeling hurt by the false accusations. They know they hadn't been launching any Iskanders at that hour and are askance at the slander. Or they want to raise doubts among Ukr military and people about the safety of their armament. Maybe they know it wasn't their Kalibr. Or just make these claims for every 1 in 100 Iskanders.
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Sep 11, 2023 15:44
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I would find it more believable to suppose that their disinformation agencies found that to be the most relevant topic to stir poo poo up about that day and so that's what they're pumping out. Tomorrow it'll be a different topic, same message.
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Sep 11, 2023 15:58
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I think it's fairly simple: Russia is actually concerned about managing escalation of support from Europe and the US, hence why they're desperately messaging in an attempt to minimize another one of their attacks blowing up a market in a war that they started and which they continue to wage. tbh that's a reasonable thing to be concerned about when the current level of discussion is f16s and atacms (among other things). some particularly important decisions are going to be made around what all f16 capable weapon systems to give Ukraine and no doubt Russia would prefer that those decisions are not made by people thinking of the most recent scenes of murdered Ukrainian civilians.bird food bathtub posted:I would find it more believable to suppose that their disinformation agencies found that to be the most relevant topic to stir poo poo up about that day and so that's what they're pumping out. Tomorrow it'll be a different topic, same message. partly yeah, but that specific bit of bullshit was pushed harder than a lot of the throwaway bullshit that they push Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Sep 11, 2023 |
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Sep 11, 2023 16:02
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Call me a Realist (actually don't, I'll fight you), but I think most military support for Ukraine is concerned with geopolitical matters rather than the deaths of civilians. Russia's goals in the region are completely incompatible with a number of countries, and that wouldn't change even if Russia wasn't terror bombing civilians. It certainly makes it easier to justify support to the populace, so you have split propaganda where Russia is at the same time internally gloriously bombing the subhumans of the Ukraine, while externally actually the homo-NATO puppets barbarically shot an ARM-missile at themselves to false flag poor persecuted Russia (which is actually very strong). It doesn't matter that it doesn't make sense, you can always find millions of morons on Twitter and the platform will gladly help you find more.
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Sep 11, 2023 16:35
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They really need to fire the guy who installed that old radar directed B52 turret on the roof of that building. You know, if it actually was a HARM.
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Sep 11, 2023 16:58
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Having Ivan's Used SAM Radar Emporium downtown was just asking for trouble.
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Sep 11, 2023 17:08
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BrotherJayne posted:Nope. Only thing confirmed is 18 deaths and a video appearing to show the missile in flight from the NW just before the impact. Northwest is an entirely normal direction for missiles to come in from. Konstantinyivka is well within range for S-300 missiles when fired ballistically from anywhere within Belgorod or half of Kursk Oblast, they have fired missiles from there at targets near Kramatorsk before, and those would come roughly from northwest. It's not credible that a HARM would hit somewhere that far behind lines, they don't blindly home in on emissions, they are preprogrammed with target areas.
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Sep 11, 2023 17:11
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Hannibal Rex posted:"recovering a stuck Russian tank" I occasionally watch their updates, and completely ignoring the content of this recent video, one image really sticks in my head above any other claim because it's not acknowledged. We all hear that Russian recruiting standards for military service basically don't exist anymore, but it's a little crazy that we can be shown potbellied uncle Stanislav and be expected to take it as read that he is actually a front line combat marine of the 810th Guards Naval Infantry that was deployed on an offensive operation  I know that the service ages you quick and it's not exactly a flattering image, but the current CJCS looks more fit for combat duty and he's so old that I'm not sure how he hasn't been forced to retire It wouldn't surprise me to learn that he is 100% who he is claimed to be, but it is honestly hard to grapple with the idea that the manpower situation could be bad enough to send this guy on the ground to re-take an objective
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Sep 11, 2023 17:24
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Hannibal Rex posted:"recovering a stuck Russian tank" I never watch those videos because of the dumb preview thumbnails, but in that case he might not be wrong - they paint the white cross on knocked out/captured tanks for the same reason they paint it on their own tanks, so they know not to shoot it
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Sep 11, 2023 18:01
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Tuna-Fish posted:Northwest is an entirely normal direction for missiles to come in from. Konstantinyivka is well within range for S-300 missiles when fired ballistically from anywhere within Belgorod or half of Kursk Oblast, they have fired missiles from there at targets near Kramatorsk before, and those would come roughly from northwest. I think the thing that gets me the most in all of that is the idea that Ukraine is bombing itself to increase support for the war, when fucker, Russia's already bombing them.
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Sep 11, 2023 19:26
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Kchama posted:I think the thing that gets me the most in all of that is the idea that Ukraine is bombing itself to increase support for the war, when fucker, Russia's already bombing them. There were a whole bunch of villages near the border that got abandoned due to frequent shelling with no one noticing.
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Sep 11, 2023 20:04
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The Door Frame posted:I occasionally watch their updates, and completely ignoring the content of this recent video, one image really sticks in my head above any other claim because it's not acknowledged. We all hear that Russian recruiting standards for military service basically don't exist anymore, but it's a little crazy that we can be shown potbellied uncle Stanislav and be expected to take it as read that he is actually a front line combat marine of the 810th Guards Naval Infantry that was deployed on an offensive operation I can see old timers who were previously active duty in said unit(s) getting on board the support mother Russia train. I doubt Russian recruiters are going to deny someone with experience like that, even if the do not meet physical standards. I believe Russia also has a similar system as the US ready reserve, (previous active/guard who can still pass basic physical/psychological requirements getting mobilized in times of war). The US called up the ready reserve in 2003-2004, and there were 50+ year old previous active duty personnel being put into combat units.
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Sep 11, 2023 20:14
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Didn't Russia raise the max age of conscription to 55?
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Sep 11, 2023 20:26
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