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fatherboxx)
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Again, this is almost entirely civil and private IT sector
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Sep 18, 2023 23:07
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Defenestrategy posted:Because highly compensated info sec personel in the west dont really have to worry about even the slightest hint that they might see a front line or worry that their quality of life will hit the shitter if the economy starts tanking or having restricted access to shiny toys if russia becomes even more of a pariah state. Plenty of jobs for experienced cybersec nerds in the west, and even the lowest ranks are insanely compensated. Military cybersecurity people leaving Russia enmass and getting picked up by other countries would be insanely newsworthy and likely heavily reported on given that Russia basically has that as a key part of their, well Im blanking on the word but basically their offensive strategies. As far as I'm aware the only thing being reported on is people leaving the civilian side of things. Also those folks would almost certainly not be allowed to fade into the civilian side of things in the west. They would get picked up and picked over by western intelligence agencies who would very much like to know the internal workings of Russian military cybersecurity, which means Russia has even a more vested interest in not letting those folks leave. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Sep 18, 2023 |
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Sep 18, 2023 23:09
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Cyberwarfare is part of the defense sector. This article is about companies like Yandex, not, for example, groups like Cozy Bear
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Sep 18, 2023 23:14
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While I imagine that the current brain drain has not significantly impacted the war effort, I wouldn't discount IT workers leaving as purely affecting the civilian side either. 10% isn't much, but unless the Russian government is offering a significantly better deal than the private sector, the shrinkage in the overall hiring pool will be noticed over time. The US federal government has trouble hiring and retaining programmers for instance because the federal pay scale is significantly lower and you're relying on applicants who value job security and the occasional highly paid outside contractor and eventually you're going to have problems staffing up programs appropriately. That sort of stuff would only introduce low levels of friction that wouldn't become really significant until a few years pass by though.
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Sep 18, 2023 23:16
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Ten percent of the total number of computer touchers in the whole country leaves, and you don't think that impacts the defense IT sector also? Like, maybe next time they're trying to hire new people and all the new people they would've hired have already moved to Poland? I'm not saying the Russian cyberwarfare industry has completely evaporated like a candle getting blown out or something; it's a big country with big industries. But there's just no way you have a civilian-side industry contracture of ten percent that doesn't also impact the noncivilian side of the industry significantly.
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Sep 18, 2023 23:18
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I think there's a pretty significant difference between "They are going to have issues rehiring/staffing when the time comes to do so due to a sizeable decrease in their labor pool size" and "Military cybersecurity employees are fleeing Russia enmass, which is directly negatively impacting their effectiveness and also being a pretty big source of leaks"
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Sep 18, 2023 23:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Ten percent of the total number of computer touchers in the whole country leaves, and you don't think that impacts the defense IT sector also? Like, maybe next time they're trying to hire new people and all the new people they would've hired have already moved to Poland? Thats only affecting long term prospects of state infosec employment, years in the future, provided that education in that sector significantly degrades. And, well, even North Korea has cyberwarfare capabilities, so as long as Russian agencies have money they are going to fill the vacancies. Hieronymous Alloy posted:I'm not saying the Russian cyberwarfare industry has completely evaporated like a candle getting blown out or something; it's a big country with big industries. This is what you said Hieronymous Alloy posted:Russia is very short of competent computer touchers as they all left when the draft started
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Sep 18, 2023 23:29
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fatherboxx posted:.  https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hyperbole
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Sep 18, 2023 23:35
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ummel posted:There's absolutely no way Russia runs out of computer touchers. They understand the need for a computer toucher wing of the modern political and military world better than anyone. They wrote the book on it and sold it back to the USA to eat itself with. Ah, Sean Penn. Good opinions, awful writer. EDIT: Well, mostly good opinions.
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Sep 18, 2023 23:42
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Do you have direct evidence that the flight of computer/IT specialists in the civilian sphere is directly impacting Russian cyber warfare capabilities? I mainly watch the battlefield space so I don't know if you have come across anything to suggest that they may be suffering in this regard.
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Sep 18, 2023 23:45
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MikeC posted:Do you have direct evidence that the flight of computer/IT specialists in the civilian sphere is directly impacting Russian cyber warfare capabilities? I mainly watch the battlefield space so I don't know if you have come across anything to suggest that they may be suffering in this regard. At the time of my initial post above I was just recalling the news coverage of the estimated 100,000 IT brain-drain and not recalling anything specific about whether that brain drain was in the civilian or defense sectors specifically. That said it seems extremely counterintuitive to pretend that such a sharp contraction in the civilian labor market wouldn't impact the defense labor market significantly, and in fairly short order. Like, the US defense industry already has a very hard time hiring enough IT people and that's without a mass emigration problem at all. In any ongoing industry churn is a constant problem and its impact is often felt immediately, because people are always leaving and you're always having to re-hire replacements, and because shortages elsewhere mean your own people get hired away. Does that mean Cozy Bear has gone POOF like a popped balloon? No, obviously not. But to pretend a departure of 100,000 IT industry workers hasn't had any impact at all on the defense IT industry, only on the civilian IT industry, seems counter-intuitive to the point that it verges on denialism. I don't have specific sources on this, though, no. I imagine if any such specific analysis existed, it would probably be classified. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Sep 19, 2023 |
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Sep 19, 2023 00:02
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Ten percent of the total number of computer touchers in the whole country leaves, and you don't think that impacts the defense IT sector also? Like, maybe next time they're trying to hire new people and all the new people they would've hired have already moved to Poland? Working for the state is a great way to not be drafted, so probably they can cannibalize the private sector for a long while. Especially now that it's harder to get out of the country, a lot of people will probably jump at a cushy office job if it avoids dying in a trench.
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Sep 19, 2023 00:29
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ummel posted:edit- The Watched this tonight. Doesn't do much to help Sean Penn not appear like a weirdo (he's a bit of a weirdo) though he does seem quite self aware about that in parts. In general it struggles to tell a coherent story / have a coherent message other than Ukraine Good And We Should All Support Them Or It's Us Next, which isn't exactly a message that's tough to sell. Valid message, but I was hoping for more.
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Sep 19, 2023 00:54
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kalleth posted:Watched this tonight. Doesn't do much to help Sean Penn not appear like a weirdo (he's a bit of a weirdo) though he does seem quite self aware about that in parts. Remember how I said Sean Penn was a horrible writer? His book Bob Honey Just Do Things is pretty proof of that. It's suppose to be about how old people ruling the world is bad and it should be changed, but it is told through the worst prose ever through the eyes of a serial killer who specializes in the elderly and also involves a cameo by a guy Sean Penn met in real life and has a long arc that is entirely just fawning over how amazing Sean Penn is as a person.
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Sep 19, 2023 01:04
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ummel posted:There's absolutely no way Russia runs out of computer touchers. They understand the need for a computer toucher wing of the modern political and military world better than anyone. They wrote the book on it and sold it back to the USA to eat itself with. How the heck did Penn end up in the bunker with Zelensky on the first night of the invasion?
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Sep 19, 2023 05:04
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Hopefully this documentary continues the legacy of the El Chapo movie and leads directly to Putin's arrest
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Sep 19, 2023 05:37
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html NYT considers that the explosion in Konstantinovka that killed 15 people was caused by an Ukrainian AA missile. The case as discussed online recently predictably caused a shitstorm among osint people - personally I lack expertise to evaluate angles from reflections in windows etc, so it was hard do trust any reports without analysis of fragments but it looks like NYT did some legwork here.
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Sep 19, 2023 09:12
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Nervous posted:This is just There's accounts of early Russian POWs who didn't even know they were in Ukraine, or they thought they were just taking part in drills until half their unit got blasted to poo poo.
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Sep 19, 2023 09:54
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to me.
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fatherboxx posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html I'm also not clever enough to verify angles from reflections and whatnot, but the fact that Ukraine straight up declined to conduct any sort of investigation into the incident raises some questions. The justification is that there are hundreds of missiles launched at Ukraine, and investigating every single one is just a waste of time, which is true, but clearly this particular strike is different from most of other cases where nobody doubted Russia was behind them. Usually, when Russia tried to claim Ukraine was bombing its own cities, Ukraine was quick to disprove that narrative, like with the attack on the Kramatorsk train station last year. There was a proper investigation, and OSCE could confirm that it was a Russian Tochka-U missile with cluster munitions.
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Sep 19, 2023 10:33
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Ten percent of the total number of computer touchers in the whole country leaves, and you don't think that impacts the defense IT sector also? Like, maybe next time they're trying to hire new people and all the new people they would've hired have already moved to Poland? no, offensive cyber capacity is done by military units at this point or units that are otherwise put together in explicit government employ in many/most cases. Obviously the details vary group to group and country to country but the point is to have a dependable, always-available capability, which you only get by actually paying people and running the groups yourself and providing the buildings and infrastructure for them to do their work. Many of the state-run groups are a decade old or more, it's been run that way for quite a while now. Hieronymous Alloy posted:At the time of my initial post above I was just recalling the news coverage of the estimated 100,000 IT brain-drain and not recalling anything specific about whether that brain drain was in the civilian or defense sectors specifically. idk what you're picturing, like an informal hacking group or like random it guys in an office, but imagine instead people who are actively making careers out of a specific subset of some cyber domain or whatever. it's career people who work for some niche part of some Russian security agency under stable contracts. In some cases they're literally just military units full of people serving military contracts. those aren't the people just picking up and relocating so no they're probably as unaffected by people moving as is possible to be. as an aside, russia does continue to launch cyber attacks throughout this and has had some amount of success at jamming starlink enough to occasionally bring it down regionally or otherwise degrade service. it's been a resilient system, but it's not immune Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:29 on Sep 19, 2023 |
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Sep 19, 2023 11:22
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The specialists employed by the Russian government or military, and those working for military contractors, are not allowed to leave the country. This was already true before the war.
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Sep 19, 2023 11:27
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Aliev pulls the trigger on another war https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1704074437975331119?t=qRBXncEdawhByRuOtYi1qw&s=19
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Sep 19, 2023 11:30
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Paladinus posted:I'm also not clever enough to verify angles from reflections and whatnot, but the fact that Ukraine straight up declined to conduct any sort of investigation into the incident raises some questions. The justification is that there are hundreds of missiles launched at Ukraine, and investigating every single one is just a waste of time, which is true, but clearly this particular strike is different from most of other cases where nobody doubted Russia was behind them. Usually, when Russia tried to claim Ukraine was bombing its own cities, Ukraine was quick to disprove that narrative, like with the attack on the Kramatorsk train station last year. There was a proper investigation, and OSCE could confirm that it was a Russian Tochka-U missile with cluster munitions. And almost right after I posted this, SBU issue a statement that they are conducting an investigation and so far they've identified fragments of S-300 missiles (i.e. not Buk as NYT suggests).
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Sep 19, 2023 12:43
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fatherboxx posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html Missed/faulty AA missile is unfortunately very possible. Paladinus posted:And almost right after I posted this, SBU issue a statement that they are conducting an investigation and so far they've identified fragments of S-300 missiles (i.e. not Buk as NYT suggests). Is S-300 still possibly a Ukrainian AA missile?
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Sep 19, 2023 12:45
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Kchama posted:
If they haven't run out of them, yes.
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Sep 19, 2023 12:49
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Kchama posted:Is S-300 still possibly a Ukrainian AA missile? Yes. That's the one that crashed in Poland last year and I'm reasonably sure Ukraine still has plenty of those. But I imagine if it was an S-300 after all, a lot of the calculations would have to be different and more research will need to be done to confirm if it was Ukrainian or not.
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Sep 19, 2023 13:03
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Kchama posted:Missed/faulty AA missile is unfortunately very possible. Yes, but Russia has been firing S-300's from Belgorod in roughly that direction for more than a year. Paladinus posted:Yes. That's the one that crashed in Poland last year and I'm reasonably sure Ukraine still has plenty of those. But I imagine if it was an S-300 after all, a lot of the calculations would have to be different and more research will need to be done to confirm if it was Ukrainian or not. I doubt they have plenty. S-300 was their mainstay heavy AA system for the first year, but around winter they raised alarm with allies that they were starting to run out, and desperately needed replacements before that happened or the backbone of their AA network falls. This is why they got Patriots. They still probably have some, because they probably got their replacements before they literally ran dry.
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Sep 19, 2023 13:28
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Except, of course, the number of patriots received is in no way a replacement.
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Sep 19, 2023 13:32
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Tuna-Fish posted:Yes, but Russia has been firing S-300's from Belgorod in roughly that direction for more than a year. Yeah, I was wondering if it was something like this.
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Sep 19, 2023 13:42
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OddObserver posted:Except, of course, the number of patriots received is in no way a replacement. It's not just Patriots. Ukraine has a logistician's nightmare in different types of equipment and anti air is not an exception to that.
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Sep 19, 2023 14:29
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One of the various podcasts said that, last winter, Ukraine's government was within a few days of evacuating Kyiv because the situation with power and heat had become so dire. Additional air defense munitions bought them enough time to come back from that brink. The defensive line in the south was Surovikin's, as was that campaign against civilian power and heating infrastructure. We should be thankful he seems to be out of power and replaced by the far-less-imaginative Gerasimov.
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Sep 19, 2023 14:31
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Ynglaur posted:One of the various podcasts said that, last winter, Ukraine's government was within a few days of evacuating Kyiv because the situation with power and heat had become so dire. Additional air defense munitions bought them enough time to come back from that brink. The defensive line in the south was Surovikin's, as was that campaign against civilian power and heating infrastructure. We should be thankful he seems to be out of power and replaced by the far-less-imaginative Gerasimov. I'm sure there will be more attacks on civilian infrastructure this winter. Gerasimov's lack of imagination so far seems to only have resulted in staying Surovikin's course.
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Sep 19, 2023 14:41
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Paladinus posted:Gerasimov's lack of imagination so far seems to only have resulted in staying Surovikin's course. He has actually deployed the defenders forward, exposing them to maximum attrition while ordering costly counterattacks to regain lost ground rather than falling back to the layered defenses Surovikin had prepared, so not really staying the course. Given his performance this summer I fully expect we'll see a series of costly tank charges into Ukrainian minefields this winter.
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Sep 19, 2023 16:14
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I've read (somewhere I can't remember) a worry that the numbers of missiles being fired at Ukraine dropping recently isn't just from Russia running out of missiles faster than they can be replaced with new ones, but may additionally be a deliberate policy of holding onto some of the new production missiles now for a campaign of striking civilian power and heat facilities later after winter hits. I sure hope not though.
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Sep 19, 2023 16:18
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Totally normal oil production superpower facing fuel shortages at gas pump.  https://yle.fi/a/74-20050824 quote:OIL-PRODUCING RUSSIA SUDDENLY FACES A FUEL SHORTAGE - CAUSING DIESEL AND PETROL PRICES TO SOAR IN RUSSIA I find it funny to think that while Russian consumers are having shortages of diesel, the state oil companies are exporting it to.... SAUDI ARABIA  all in all it's an interesting look into Putin's failing Rube Goldberg system of maintaining affordable consumer prices. Also I used to be mad at the Finnish citizens living close to border who would drive there to fill the tank, but now I realize that they were just draining the Russian state coffers 
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Sep 19, 2023 19:00
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Russia is very short of competent computer touchers as they all left when the draft started, Ukraine is not, and starlink appears to be unhackable so far. You don't need to hack Starlink when its owner can just turn it off for you.
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Sep 19, 2023 19:08
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Russia becoming best buds with North Korea isn't just to get ammo. Putin knows his country will be a pariah for the rest of his life, so he's copying Kim Jong Un's homework on how to control the population of a modern pariah state. He knows for certain he can't lose the war if he wants to stay in power. He needs to sell oil and feed his tanks with it to keep the war going. What he doesn't know, and honestly I don't think anyone does, is how far he can push his people into the dirt before losing power. North Korea gives him an example of just how much suffering the populace can potentially endure. He's demonstrated what happens to his opposition whether it's a legal opposition party, or outright traitors; they're shot in the streets or missile'd out of the sky. Combine that with the decades of political apathy he worked very hard to craft, he has reason to believe he can keep tightening the screws. Russia of course isn't the same as North Korea, so we all hope his assessment here is as wrong as his assessment of how this war would go.
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Sep 19, 2023 19:18
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The idea that Russia would emulate North Korea is indeed a possibility>0%, but the land size makes an enormous difference on how that would even theoretically play out. I'd not consider it all too likely. It's more like "They have nobody else who will buy what they're selling"
notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Sep 19, 2023 |
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Sep 19, 2023 19:22
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Russia is not treated like North Korea, which is frankly wildly unfair.
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Sep 19, 2023 19:25
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 17:48 |
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How can you do a north korea in Russia where quite frankly there is plenty of room for people to you know just walk the hell away?
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Sep 19, 2023 19:28
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