(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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Somewhere, on a parallel universe SA forums, people are arguing over whether the massive and unprecedented economic aid program for post-soviet Russia was a massive mistake. Could the invasion of the Baltics in 1999 have been prevented? Or the invasion and brutal occupation of Ukraine in 2003? Maybe, without the aid, the Russian state would not have been able to maintain its military projection power and would have had no way to implement the imperialist/chauvinist/revanchist desires?. Guess they'll never know.
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Sep 25, 2023 20:40
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 12:34 |
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Majorian posted:Oil prices contributed to that economic boom more than anything else (a collapse in prices also led to an economic downturn in 2014). There's no question that Russia should have diversified its economy more beyond resource extraction during that time period, but, well, we call it a "resource curse" for a reason. Right, so they had no debt, a large educated workforce that wasn't utilised, unlimited natural resources, no political problems (Bolotnaya made sure of that) and good trade relations. If that's not a good opportunity for growth, I don't know what is. A resource curse means less when most Russians would be happy to earn a few hundred dollars a month, it's not like their workforce is too expensive to make use of them for anything but oil. They just decided to invest those advantages into reclaiming imperial glory and pissing off all their friends and partners rather than doing anything useful. But yeah, they have no agency. It's all due to the IMF being mean in the 90s.
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Sep 25, 2023 20:40
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The world bent over backwards to invite Russia to join civilization and they instead poured everything into a pathetic attempt at reclaiming their empire. They have no one to blame but themselves.
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Sep 25, 2023 20:43
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I blame perfidious ALBIONNNNN! I'll get you next time!! You haven't seen the last of meeee!! *backflips offstage through a burning window while throwing a tomahawk*
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Sep 25, 2023 20:45
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Coolguye posted:they've got a decades long habit of exploding into treats every time someone even considers putting AMM systems closer to their borders. 
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Sep 25, 2023 20:51
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spankmeister posted:Huh, kind of like grain policy in Ukraine 90-odd years ago then hm? yes exactly
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Sep 25, 2023 20:54
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bad_fmr posted:Every other ex-Warsaw pact state: Russia actually did try to invest in its country and education, diversify its economy, build infrastructure, and set up a liberal democracy (or at least that's what the public wanted from the Yeltsin government). All of these things were made impossible by shock therapy, the '93 Constitutional crisis, the '96 election, the '98 economic collapse, etc. poor waif posted:Right, so they had no debt, a large educated workforce that wasn't utilised, unlimited natural resources, no political problems (Bolotnaya made sure of that) and good trade relations. If that's not a good opportunity for growth, I don't know what is. Are we speaking of Russia in the 90s? If so, Russia had a huge debt in the 90s, stemming from an agreement to import massively from the Baltic States. They had to default in '98, causing the financial collapse that year. If you're speaking of Russia in the 2003-2013 period, that period represents a major uptick in economic growth, improved standards of living, etc. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here; if it's "they should have diversified more," well, yeah, I just said that in my previous post. The claim that Russia's economic woes over the past 30 years were caused by "investing those advantages into reclaiming imperial glory and pissing off all their friends and partners rather than doing anything useful" really doesn't hold water. As I pointed out earlier, during the nadir of Russia's fortunes (the 90s), military spending was a tiny fraction of what it was under the USSR. Baronjutter posted:The world bent over backwards to invite Russia to join civilization Can you give any examples of this?
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Sep 25, 2023 20:55
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Russia should invest in Bitcoin
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Sep 25, 2023 20:56
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Nooner posted:Russia should invest in Bitcoin Welcome back, where have you been? Also that sandwich looked CHOICE bro
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Sep 25, 2023 20:58
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Majorian posted:Russia actually did try to invest in its country and education, diversify its economy, build infrastructure, and set up a liberal democracy (or at least that's what the public wanted from the Yeltsin government). All of these things were made impossible by shock therapy, the '93 Constitutional crisis, the '96 election, the '98 economic collapse, etc. Like trying to prevent former soviet states from joining NATO to try to make Russia feel good. Poland had to basically blackmail the US into allowing them in. The west really threw a lot of former soviet states under the bus out of respect for their "sphere" in the hopes it would make russia feel respected and safe.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:00
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Baronjutter posted:The world bent over backwards to invite Russia to join civilization and they instead poured everything into a pathetic attempt at reclaiming their empire. They have no one to blame but themselves. the average russian has no one to blame but himself for freely and fairly democratically electing yeltsin who through his singular mismanagement with no outside help brought about the largest drop in life expectancy and spike in infant mortality since the end of ww2. I have no sympathy for any russian citizen
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Sep 25, 2023 21:00
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In the following essay I will explain why the Anschluss was America's fault due to bad foreign economic policies
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Sep 25, 2023 21:01
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That's a hosed up thing to say Paul
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Sep 25, 2023 21:01
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REALLY hosed up actually
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Sep 25, 2023 21:01
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Majorian posted:Russia actually did try to invest in its country and education, diversify its economy, build infrastructure, and set up a liberal democracy (or at least that's what the public wanted from the Yeltsin government). All of these things were made impossible by shock therapy, the '93 Constitutional crisis, the '96 election, the '98 economic collapse, etc. Yes, poor Russia. The only thing they could do was to harass and be hostile towards their neighbors, and start wars here and there and its everyone else's fault but Russia's.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:02
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Honestly the 1990s have basically been Russia's Dolchstosslegend for a while. You can discuss to what extent either set of claims have any element of truth to them, and might even find some arguments that partially support them.* But the issue isn't whether the Nazi's or Russian elites' historical claims have any specks of truth in them, its the constant stream of actions that they have used those claims to justify. Internationally, they've undertaken overt interventions in Chechyna, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, Belarus, Kazakstan, and Ukraine (amongst others - I've not even included their state supported mercenaries loving up SS Africa), alongside attempts to bully virtually all of their weaker neighbours, and destabilise many countries further affield - from interfering in their political processes, to deepening domestic political divides, to outright terrorism and assassinations using nerve agents and radioactive weapons (which have killed innocent bystanders). And that's to say nothing of what they have done to Russia itself - looting the country of everything of value and destroying any hope of a form of democratic governance. Could go on for ages here. And why? Because sweet innocent naive Russia let our guard down, and in our moment of weakness the West deceived us into giving up our Empire. That justifies all of these to conquer it back - and getting our revenge if we can. * for the avoidance of some 'visitors' misinterpreting this in bad faith - I'm not claiming there's any truth to the anti-semitic elements of the Nazi's claims, but instead that its not outrageous to argue that the unrest on the homefront did not help make Germany's military situation any better (though my view is it was basically collapsing by that point anyway). Just like IMF 'advice' didn't help Russia's situation in the 1990s, but wasn't the main cause - the rot had set in many years before.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:03
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Der Kyhe posted:Yes, poor Russia. The only thing they could do was to harass and be hostile towards their neighbors, and start wars here and there and its everyone else's fault but Russia's. Reminds me of America, when you think about it!!
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Sep 25, 2023 21:05
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Poor Russia, ever the victim.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:06
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Toxic Mental posted:It's the SMO. As in, the real smo' special military operation. Teeny tiny 3 day weeny whiny. It's actually very useful context so now I know I can just stay out of the conversation until the topic changes
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Sep 25, 2023 21:06
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Majorian posted:Oil prices contributed to that economic boom more than anything else (a collapse in prices also led to an economic downturn in 2014). There's no question that Russia should have diversified its economy more beyond resource extraction during that time period, but, well, we call it a "resource curse" for a reason. not any reason you're implying. it's called a resource curse because it encourages more developed economies to come in and plunder the area to the detriment of locals, which is a doubly huge problem because it not only deprives the area of capital, it usually undermines the local ownership customs and rule of law as well. it's typically strong local customs led by local rulers that sees these things well invested and subverts this 'curse'. botswana is the prime example of this. russia had perfectly serviceable ownership customs and rule of law that its own stewards and custodians threw out the window without any help from foreigners because, as it turned out, thieves had always been in charge of acquisitions in the USSR, and the primary thing that the fall of the union stripped away was the single-party autocracy structure that kept it at least somewhat out of vogue. after that fell, the thieves became the government. the more-"fortunate" ex soviet bloc neighbors avoided the kleptocrat influence and had substantial GDP-per-capita growth as demonstrated further up the page. it's all governance and statecraft and it's all been entirely russia-driven, every step of the way.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:07
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Toxic Mental posted:Reminds me of America, when you think about it!! America had 9/11 to start the 21st century. Russia had Putin.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:08
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Baronjutter posted:Like trying to prevent former soviet states from joining NATO to try to make Russia feel good. Poland had to basically blackmail the US into allowing them in. The west really threw a lot of former soviet states under the bus out of respect for their "sphere" in the hopes it would make russia feel respected and safe. Countries like Germany and France hemming and hawing on expanding NATO because they didn't want to ruin their relations with Russia, and then deciding to expand NATO anyway, doesn't strike me as "bending over backwards" to allow Russia to join the civilized world. Coolguye posted:russia had perfectly serviceable ownership customs and rule of law that its own stewards and custodians threw out the window without any help from foreigners You seem to be suggesting that Russia being forced to rapidly liberalize its economy and put large sectors of the economy up for auction didn't help the oligarchs buy up formerly government-controlled state enterprises, turning Russia into basically a libertarian hellstate. You also seem to be leaving out the fact that the "stewards and custodians" of the country, ie: the Yeltsin government, were heavily supported by the West, no matter how corrupt or authoritarian they showed themselves to be. spankmeister posted:Poor Russia, ever the victim. No one is saying this. Majorian fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Sep 25, 2023 |
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Sep 25, 2023 21:08
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mobby_6kl posted:It's actually very useful context so now I know I can just stay out of the conversation until the topic changes I openly encourage you to explain in detail exactly why Majoran is wrong, but without resorting to personal attacks, and that goes for everyone.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:08
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pro starcraft loser posted:America had 9/11 to start the 21st century. putin planned and executed the russian 9/11 to help him consolidate power, so that just further strengthens the comparison between him and the US govt
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Sep 25, 2023 21:13
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It's me I expanded NATO just to make Russia mad. On purpose.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:14
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Majorian posted:Countries like Germany and France hemming and hawing on expanding NATO because they didn't want to ruin their relations with Russia, and then deciding to expand NATO anyway, doesn't strike me as "bending over backwards" to allow Russia to join the civilized world. the city of london has been doing its best since the 90s to kick out the russian oligarchs and their looted wealth. they want no part of it
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Sep 25, 2023 21:14
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Majorian posted:Are we speaking of Russia in the 90s? If so, Russia had a huge debt in the 90s, stemming from an agreement to import massively from the Baltic States. They had to default in '98, causing the financial collapse that year. If you're speaking of Russia in the 2003-2013 period, that period represents a major uptick in economic growth, improved standards of living, etc. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here; if it's "they should have diversified more," well, yeah, I just said that in my previous post. I am not talking about the 90s, no, this is the the third time I'm saying so, I think? I'm saying in 2014, Russia had every opportunity to invest in its economy. It hade huge opportunities and advantages. You're obsessed with the 90s, I get it, but read what I'm saying. 20 odd countries suffered (many worse than Russia) in the 90s, they didn't all turn into proto-fascist dictatorships like Russia. It's not the single determining factor, no matter how much you want it to be. This can be shown that by 2014, Russia had lots of economic advantages, and had largely gotten over problems from the 90s. I've listed them repeatedly. By 2014, they had agency, and could make decisions about how to invest their attention, their time and their resources. One of their decisions was to throw all that away, and dedicate their entire being to loving with Ukraine and the West. If they hadn't invaded Ukraine, they would likely have seen continued foreign investment, they would have seen continued improvement in trade (e.g. Nordstream 2). You keep asking for which opportunities they had, and took offence to me saying that they "decided that its resources need to be spent on war and kleptocrats." They didn't even have to invest very much, just don't actively gently caress with your biggest partners. I have shown that they have made decisions that divert resources from investment to war and kleptocrats. I have listed opportunities they had. What point are you trying to make?
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Sep 25, 2023 21:16
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KakerMix posted:It's me I expanded NATO just to make Russia mad. On purpose. Fun fact: Russia wanted to join NATO in 1991.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:16
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Majorian posted:Fun fact: Russia wanted to join NATO in 1991. It's OK. They are still in the UN security council and everything there has been fine since.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:17
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Majorian posted:Russia actually did try to invest in its country and education, diversify its economy, build infrastructure, and set up a liberal democracy (or at least that's what the public wanted from the Yeltsin government). All of these things were made impossible by shock therapy, the '93 Constitutional crisis, the '96 election, the '98 economic collapse, etc.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:19
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Two decades of pumping EU funds into Poland and Hungary that amount to something like 5% of their GDP p.a. didn't stop them from sliding back into authoritarianism and regressive politics. Maybe giving countries modern infrastructure and a modern developed economy is not the one weird trick that magically gives you stable pluralistic societies? Maybe it's more complicated? Makes you think.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:21
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Majorian posted:Fun fact: Russia wanted to join NATO in 1991. This isn't fun, it's Yelstin saying "yeah maybe some day" and Putin sorta said the same thing. They say lots of things. You know what they did though? Invaded Ukraine. This is one of those even more fun facts where actions speak louder than words.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:21
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bad_fmr posted:Well again, most other former eastern block states managed to do these reforms while being under similar shock therapy conditions, while having signifigantly less advantages with natural resources and so on. For the fact that Russia couldn't we should probably look for the reasons in Russia instead of trying to lay the blame everywhere else, right? What made Russia the odd one out. probably bad genes i guess (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 25, 2023 21:22
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Help the IMF took all my infinite natural resources! e: found them nvm
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Sep 25, 2023 21:24
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Toxic Mental posted:I openly encourage you to explain in detail exactly why Majoran is wrong, but without resorting to personal attacks, and that goes for everyone. their tankie slant is super obvious and i'm not entirely clear on why we have to deal with the history being rewritten yet again to make this a "poor russia" narrative. even the major post of "oh, they tried to set up a liberal democracy, but other influences made it impossible" line, in this post: Majorian posted:Russia actually did try to invest in its country and education, diversify its economy, build infrastructure, and set up a liberal democracy (or at least that's what the public wanted from the Yeltsin government). All of these things were made impossible by shock therapy, the '93 Constitutional crisis, the '96 election, the '98 economic collapse, etc. all of these notes are statecraft and governance failures and none of them have any western influence in the top 5 causes. going back and blaming the west for any of this garbage is like trying to logic out that january 6th was putin's fault, actually, because if you go back to 2016, there's known russian interference. like yes, there is absolutely russian interference with america's 2016 election. but nobody even thinks to say any horseshit like "putin's responsible for january 6th" because january 6th was a failure of american statecraft that was numerous years in the making and had tons of sources that putin had nothing to do with. yes, russian troll farms inflamed chuds and spread tons of lies about hilary. but how are they more responsible for the outcome than the US not dealing with its own chud problem, or hilary actively choosing to run the worst campaign in modern american politics? compare and contrast the overall effect of trump catching 91 indictments in varying jurisdictions versus successfully implementing installing himself as president-for-life and building a cronyist government of oligarchs that objectively siphon off entire percentage points of GDP growth of their host country like bloated ticks. is the US to thank russia for flushing out trump so we could indict him now? is that, too, something russia did? if not, then why are we forced to listen to another revisionist talk circles around the IMF's multivariate crimes?
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Sep 25, 2023 21:26
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poor waif posted:I am not talking about the 90s, no, this is the the third time I'm saying so, I think? I'm saying in 2014, Russia had every opportunity to invest in its economy. It hade huge opportunities and advantages. You're obsessed with the 90s, I get it, but read what I'm saying. 20 odd countries suffered (many worse than Russia) in the 90s, they didn't all turn into proto-fascist dictatorships like Russia. It's not the single determining factor, no matter how much you want it to be. I'm not "obsessed" with the 90's; it's an important period to understand if you want to understand why Russia is the way it is today, why it distrusts the West, why it hasn't become more economically integrated with Europe, etc. I never said that it was the single determinative factor for why Russia is the way it is today, just a very important one. I think you're assuming that I hold positions that I actually don't. I didn't support the 2014 annexation of Crimea in 2014, and still don't. Nor do I support the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. I think both moves were ultimately mistakes on Russia's part. But to suggest that Russia didn't try to modernize, and yes, Westernize, its economy and civil society in the post-Cold War period is ahistorical.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:27
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Majorian posted:You seem to be suggesting i'll discount each and every point after comments like this because it's proof positive you're just cherry picking crap. i don't give a flying gently caress whether western countries liked yeltsin. show me where they gave him troopers to do things and we'll have a conversation, until then, he's a russian politician that did russian political things.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:29
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Speaking of Russia defendersthe elon thread posted:
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Sep 25, 2023 21:30
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Majorian posted:The Baltic States bounced back after 1998 much more quickly than Russia because they were already EU members
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Sep 25, 2023 21:30
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 12:34 |
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Coolguye posted:all of these notes are statecraft and governance failures and none of them have any western influence in the top 5 causes. What would be the top 5 causes, in your mind? Because it seems to me that the West's support for the Yeltsin government and its policies, best exemplified in the blatant intervention in the 1996 election, fits pretty neatly in the top five causes. It certainly closed off any hope of Russian voters influencing their government's policies and programs. Cicero posted:According to a quick glance at Wikipedia, the baltic states didn't join the EU until 2004. Oops, good catch. My bad, the Baltic States had begun economically integrating with the EU but had not yet acceded as member-states.
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Sep 25, 2023 21:31
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