War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

mustard_tiger posted:

I really don't think that Russia has the economy to switch over to full war time production. It barely functions now as it is.

They have lost most of the skills needed to build new hardware as well. They haven't been able to build any new T14s or SU-57s.

I mean does Russia even need the more advanced weapons platforms like that to wage this war? I think if they get into a full scale war economy they will be building tons of the stuff that isn't cutting edge like T72s, BMP3s, etc. Also they could probably still drag a lot of old rear end cold war stuff out of storage and refurbish it.

# ? Sep 27, 2023 22:05

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 15:28

EasilyConfused: Nov 21, 2009; one strong toad

Charliegrs posted:

I mean does Russia even need the more advanced weapons platforms like that to wage this war? I think if they get into a full scale war economy they will be building tons of the stuff that isn't cutting edge like T72s, BMP3s, etc. Also they could probably still drag a lot of old rear end cold war stuff out of storage and refurbish it.

They've been dragging a lot of old rear end cold war stuff out storage and refurbishing it for over a year now. It's not clear how much more they have available.

# ? Sep 27, 2023 22:26

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Dick Ripple posted:

From everything I have been reading and hearing Russia is already well underway into converting industries to war production. How well this will work with modern arms production remains to be seen.

If Russia does/can go total war against Ukraine, I fear the west themselves will not follow suit in so much that their governments and populace allow it. I just cannot see Germany, the US, UK, or any of the other major supporters going far beyond the current levels of weapons and aid already being sent.

Russia is counting on a GOP win in 2024 (and helping with that) with the intention that this will end US support for Ukraine.

# ? Sep 27, 2023 22:33

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Hannibal Rex posted:

There's been a detailed rebuttal by a sociologist to that article that points out it has a lot of flaws. A good lesson on being too eager to jump on 'unvarnished' accounts of life in wartime Russia.

https://postsocialism.org/2023/09/27/the-majority-never-had-it-so-bad/

quote:

To be fair to the author, he does mention how it is the regime which stole all the cash, but to him, these lumpen don�t really care. I would say even that the piece veers pretty close to a racialized view of the subjects the author so obviously fears and loathes.

For a person who seemingly studied Russian society for a long time he somehow missed how fatalistic, politically demobilized and cynical the people on periphery are, while it is an extremely common observation by any Russian sociologist or economist. Natalia Zubarevich has formulated the theory of "Four Russias" a decade ago and her conclusions ring true -
https://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2011/12/30/chetyre_rossii
https://polit.ru/article/2016/01/17/four_russians/

quote:

"First Russia" are million-strong cities, i.e. the most modernized and economically developed territories.
"Second Russia" are medium-sized cities with a pronounced industrial profile.
"Third Russia" - small towns, working villages, rural areas. Compared to "first" and "second Russia" - this is a deep periphery in terms of the quality of socio-economic life.
"Fourth Russia" is made up of the national republics of the Caucasus, as well as the south of Siberia (Tuva, Altai Republic). These territories also represent a periphery, but a specific one: the demographic transition has not been completed here, urbanization is in its infancy, and patriarchal-clan principles are still strong in society.

By this model, only "First Russia" provides the sufficient growth of middle class with usual middle class political demands, while other big grouping by regions are dominated by material needs and if affected by a major crisis, they respond accordingly.

quote:

- A tough scenario of "backinUSSR" shift to totalitarianism - transition to a "besieged fortress" regime and tightening of the political regime for a sufficiently long period of time. This scenario assumes control over big business under the threat of nationalization and its subordination to the political priorities of the authorities, a mobilized economy, ideological control over the main spheres of life, restrictions on travel abroad, large-scale repression of the opposition and the elimination of the last independent media, restriction of the Internet, and a sharp decline in the standard of living of the entire population, especially the large urban middle class, which is not part of the bureaucracy.

In case of its realization, the consequences for four Russia are quite predictable. The biggest blow will be to the large cities of the "first Russia", their population will have to drastically reduce the usual standards of consumption. Resistance in the face of growing repression is unlikely to be large-scale, the modernized middle class will emigrate en masse. The authorities will try to reduce the negative consequences for the industrial "second Russia", as it is the mainstay of the regime. They will increase state orders paid for by the budget and support employment in industrial cities. Another pillar of the regime is the "third Russia," but here the authorities may limit themselves to maintaining the level of pensions and public sector wages. The country's periphery is unable to protest and always votes as it should. Under such a scenario, the regime may remain stable in the medium term, but the rest will depend on the speed and depth of the economic crisis, which is inevitable even without a drop in energy prices. The outcome of such a scenario is that Russia loses almost all its competitive advantages, except for raw materials, and moves to a group of countries with a lower level of development. At the same time, the differences between the "first Russia" and all the rest are shrinking due to the decline in the modernization potential of the largest cities.

quote:

2. Interaction between the "first" and "second" Russia is unlikely in any development scenario, their interests in the short and medium term do not coincide: residents of the largest cities demand modernization of the state, while for the "second" Russia the most important thing is socio-economic stability, i.e. work and wages.

Also fun to see "racialized" used by a western writer to explain it to a Russian talking about Russians.

quote:

The other tone of the piece is about soldiers embracing neoimperialism and militarism. The underclass prone to violence and crime are living their dreams. Where is the evidence? It is one thing to say the war selects the people with fewer social ties and those with little to lose. But this piece would be laughed out of town if it were suggested as explanatory of a �veteran mindset� in any other societies with aggressive foreign policy. Let�s just say a piece like this could not, for good reasons, be written about US service-personnel. And need I remind, the vast majority of people in Russia fighting are from all walks of life, not from prisons. And they fight for many different reasons because they feel powerless, because of social sanctions, and, yes, to overcome a sense of powerlessness.

I think there is more than enough studies of correlation between recruitment and class in the US. Last time that topic was discussed in this thread, this article was linked with evidence that currently US mostly recruits from middle class https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-u-s-military-became-the-exception-to-americas-wage-stagnation-problem/. Perhaps because US and Russia are different and their militaries are currently engaged in different kinds of activities.

I believe "they fight for many reasons" is horseshit, material gains is all that matters for people who enlist, Russian MOD knows that which is why the poorer region or town you visit, the more recruitment ads with SALARY NUMBERS in bold and large fonts you see (I recently visited Kazan and Volgograd and it is honestly staggering how ridden with those is the latter and how in the former it is mostly limited to metro and other transport stations). This army is kept together by insane amounts spent on it daily to keep cannon fodder in trenches to hold what was conquered.

Discounting massive direct injections of cash to people from depressed regions would be a mistake and if the war continues for more 4-5 years with steady rotations though recruit drives and mobilization waves (probably not this year, likely after presidential election 2024) it is going to have a visible effect there.

---

Unrelated but from this author I liked the rebuttal to Timothy Snyder and one of the oft-repeated arguments https://postsocialism.org/2023/04/14/why-tim-snyder-is-wrong/

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Sep 27, 2023

# ? Sep 27, 2023 23:26

Telsa Cola: Aug 19, 2011; No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Charliegrs posted:

I mean does Russia even need the more advanced weapons platforms like that to wage this war? I think if they get into a full scale war economy they will be building tons of the stuff that isn't cutting edge like T72s, BMP3s, etc. Also they could probably still drag a lot of old rear end cold war stuff out of storage and refurbish it.

It's still up in the air if they can shift enough resources around to pull that off. Shifting to full wartime production isn't an easy thing to pull off or do well.

There's social factors to consider in addition to the resource ones, and I'm not really sure anyone knows how well that would go down.

Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Sep 28, 2023

# ? Sep 27, 2023 23:54

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

Charliegrs posted:

I mean does Russia even need the more advanced weapons platforms like that to wage this war? I think if they get into a full scale war economy they will be building tons of the stuff that isn't cutting edge like T72s, BMP3s, etc. Also they could probably still drag a lot of old rear end cold war stuff out of storage and refurbish it.

A recent Perun video was about this exact question:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs

From his look at the loss statistics, his conclusion is that it seems like Russia has a certain (lowish) amount of new built or modernized vehicles (T90M, T80BVM or BMP-3 for example), as well as a good (larger) number of refurbished (but not modernized) vehicles (T80B or BMP-1). So Russia is already pulling a lot of stuff out of depots and sending it directly to the front. How long they can keep that up is a good question, but some huge depots gave already seen 50% and more of the stored equipment disappearing. So a lot is gone, but a lot is still there, but also not infinite.

Aircraft production in comparison is basically zero.

Here is the video about Russian artillery in depots:
https://youtu.be/EVqHY5hpzv8?si=vbf6yHJChPZvqF0r

Always keep in mind that Russia isn�t the Soviet Union. Russia does not have the same capability of producing ludicrous amounts of armored fighting vehicles of every kind.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 00:34

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Ynglaur posted:

Very fair points.

I think Ukraine made an operational change in the last day or two. This is the second night on a row Twitter is a buzz with comments about Ukraine using a lot more artillery, armored vehicles, and fighting at night.

I'm reminded of my post several weeks ago about the British using nighttime dismounted operations to clear the minefields at Al-Alamein.

Why hasn't there been much more night fighting? Haven't the Ukrainians been shipped tons of night vision gear while the Russians sold all there stuff as "second hand" gear to collectors before the war? I expected it to be a much bigger factor than it has.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 01:31

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

Night fighting is very difficult even with the appropriate gear

# ? Sep 28, 2023 01:40

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

Charlz Guybon posted:

Why hasn't there been much more night fighting? Haven't the Ukrainians been shipped tons of night vision gear while the Russians sold all there stuff as "second hand" gear to collectors before the war? I expected it to be a much bigger factor than it has.

Basically all Ukrainian offensive action is taking place at night.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 02:29

Jamwad Hilder: Apr 18, 2007; surfin usa

war is confusing and lovely even in the best circumstances, throwing darkness into the equation (even with night vision gear) makes it even worse

# ? Sep 28, 2023 02:59

ummel: Jun 17, 2002; <3 Lowtax; Fun Shoe

Charlz Guybon posted:

Why hasn't there been much more night fighting? Haven't the Ukrainians been shipped tons of night vision gear while the Russians sold all there stuff as "second hand" gear to collectors before the war? I expected it to be a much bigger factor than it has.

Maybe the battalion commanders can't see the battlefield over UAV so they won't order night assaults. Just like the smoke rumor. :v:

Real answer is that there's a bazillion more variables than night vision availability that we're not keen on that are factored into assaults. Russia's gear might have slightly improved over time too, I know there's been appeals to crowdsourcing for night vision gear, same as UAVs, in Russia. Even janky night vision is probably decent enough for defensive use.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 03:36

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

...all the good stuff...

Thanks for that. :thumbsup:

# ? Sep 28, 2023 04:03

E. Revenant: Aug 26, 2002; If the abyss gazes long into you then stare right back;
make it blink.

Night fighting practically has to be limited to smaller engagements because friend or foe designating is made extremely difficult. If your breakthrough elements charge too far past the front then they run the risk of being mistaken for enemy forces by the follow up elements.

Night fighting does work really well with the Bite and Hold strategy that someone in this or the GBS topic mentioned.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 05:11

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

It probably doesn't help that both sides are fielding a lot of the same equipment (tanks, IFVs) making it difficult to tell whose who at night.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 06:33

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Charlz Guybon posted:

Why hasn't there been much more night fighting? Haven't the Ukrainians been shipped tons of night vision gear while the Russians sold all there stuff as "second hand" gear to collectors before the war? I expected it to be a much bigger factor than it has.

Flares are cheap.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 06:33

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

I�ll just quote this post:

Moon Slayer posted:

Speaking of night combat, here's a CNN piece with one of their reporters embedded with a Ukrainian drone unit:

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1706751548028572082

Fighting! In Ukraine! At night!

There have been numerous videos and news articles about how a lot of the fighting is taking place at night and has been shifting there more and more, because Ukraine has the advantage there.

You can see it in this video, as the Russians need to use flares, while the Ukrainians use night vision equipment.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 06:49

Icon Of Sin: Dec 26, 2008

Having done night ops in training, there�s a very strong reasoning behind �you haven�t mastered your training until you�re doing it at night, with live rounds�. It�s a thing my platoon training officer at the US army infantry officer school wanted to all but beat into our think little skulls, and for good reason.

The night vision gear is nice, don�t get me wrong; but it�s also another piece of gear that�s prone to malfunction or breaking outright, and it�s a piece of kit you don�t really have a substitute for (aside from light sources that work for everyone nearby, instead of just for you).

# ? Sep 28, 2023 10:43

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

Everything also looks different. Doing things at night even with high quality night vision is really, really hard.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 11:41

Jarmak: Jan 24, 2005

It's also very dependent on moon phase and weather.

A clear night with good lume and night vision makes it look like the middle of the day. A full overcast is like walking around in a cave.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 12:05

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

For the defender it gets a lot easier using thermals since you're not out crawling or walking around, and you can set up a nice cozy spot that is relatively obscured against opponent vision/thermals. If the Russians do not already have at least 1 expensive thermal scope per company, the corruption is just to deep to fix. Even with relatively cheap rifle mounted thermal scopes you can see someone smoking a cigarette from several kilometers away.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 12:46

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Seeing that this topic was discussed some time ago, here is a great investigation from Russian media Verstka about drug usage and drug business in Russian army https://verstka.media/kak-rossiyskie-soldaty-upotrebliayut-narkotiki-na-voyne?tg_rhash=86cf5f61f61288

On the business following the troops and adapting to the needs on the fly:

quote:

According to the contractors, most of the banned substances are sold by local residents. "There are cab drivers who take them directly to the unit. The soldiers already know who to take what from. Just now my fellow soldier, who was caught red-handed, went with one of them to the store to buy food. On the way it turned out that the driver knew where to get it and could bring it to him. They hadn't even gotten to the store yet, but they'd already made a deal. Money in advance, a meeting is set for the transfer - at 18.00, for example, at the entrance to the unit.
They can also bring it directly to the trenches, other interlocutors of "Verstka" tell us. Such couriers, as a rule, are also local and charge much more: risks. During interrogation, a contract soldier was caught overdosing said that three syringes - with what substance, the "Verstka" interlocutor does not know - cost him 15,000 rubles. "Everyone says they are taking risks, they are afraid of being attacked - that's why the prices are so high."

Mobilized as the primary customers, no surprise here:

quote:

"You just don't paint yourself a picture of us in the trenches doped up
fighting," specifies one of our interlocutors, a fighter of one of the special units.
***
"Most of the drugs "behind the ribbon" are taken by those who were addicted to them before the war. "Everyone who hosed up in the civilian life, they gently caress up here too," explains one of the fighters. Among "contrabasses" - as the interlocutor of "Verstka" calls contract soldiers - it is not so widespread. "But the mobyo - it's hosed up. They shoot bookmarks, and through the local bargains, and cut down, and even self-planted and they even find it somewhere. Out of our two hundred - employees of the special unit - only three use it. And nobody knows about it. Well, almost nobody. They're all sports guys, sensible guys. They wouldn't understand. And it's not customary to gently caress around"

One of the most interesting parts � Russian feds when they came into occupied Kherson as first priority took local drug market under protection:

quote:

This information is also confirmed by a source of "Vyrstka", an officer of the Airborne Troops. "When we came to Kherson, in the first week a brigade of feds from Crimea came there," he says. - 'All sorts of drug sellers and stores they were actually less interested in. It's more of an ad hoc thing. But they had to bring all the criminals under their control, including these ones. They used to bring these devils to our basement. I don't know what they agreed on, but they all came out

Under the counter medicine:

quote:

In Rostov-on-Don and Bataysk, near which there are large military garrisons and where many war-supporting volunteers work, pharmacists who sell Lyrica and Tropicamide without prescriptions are periodically detained. Drug users also call it "cartoons" - these are pharmacy eye drops that are used to enhance the effect of other psychoactive substances. After only a few uses, "cartoon" causes a strong dependence, which completely destroys the body in 7-8 months of regular use.

Regarding the oft-mentioned �battle drugs� � no evidence of deliberately drugged soldiers or rationed stimulators, on the contrary � caught users tend to be sent into high-fatality storm units as punishment:

quote:

We also have promedol, a narcotic analgesic, a barbiturate, but they gently caress you hard for it. According to the manual, it's given to you when you're wounded, administered by your partner. But for every injection you have to write an explanatory note and report. Everything is very strict there.

quote:

One of such punishments, according to the "Verstka" interlocutor, was sending the military to the "Storm" assault units, where they, along with prisoners recruited for the war, are thrown to the first front line.

"And there people are always on the front line and calling fire on themselves. There are 95% of suiciders there," says a witness to a transfer to the "Storm" for drugs.

It turns out that for the use of drugs on the front line immediately impose a death sentence, other soldiers say. "Let's be honest, no one needs a Bucha here, drugs in the battalion is a stain on everyone. The prosecutor's office and the IC are of no use to anyone here. And there won't be any trial. It's easier to put them in a pit for two days and write papers that they are transferred to "Storm". It is impossible to refuse."

# ? Sep 28, 2023 13:25

daslog: Dec 10, 2008; #essereFerrari

The New York Times has a pretty good interactive today. Good reading for someone like myself that does not have the time to analyze every piece of news that comes out. The takeaways for me are 1: there has been minimal changes in the front lines this year and 2) the Russian strategy is to turn the conflict into a grinding forever war and hope the other side's supporters tire of the conflict.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html

# ? Sep 28, 2023 13:26

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

There have been several experts/commentators who have recently said this war has now turned into a battle of wills. The Russian leadership/elite have it and Ukraine has, it probably will come down betweene Russian public/soldiers at the front and the western arms/aid for Ukraine. We will know a lot more once winter really sets in and whether the Russian leadership believes it is capable of launching a proper counter-offensive. I think if we do not see any major attempts by Russia to push back the Ukrainians it would confirm that they just intend on freezing the conflict as is and waiting out the West.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 13:39

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

This war is going to be decided on the Russian domestic front before it's decided on the battlefield.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 14:53

ethanol: Jul 13, 2007

i was thinking about the russians trying to advance and I wonder, with so many mines planted if they even have a way to get through that themselves. maybe its a lot easier to drive through it if you know exactly where they are, or you leave hidden corridors open. i assume the former less than the later. I dunno

# ? Sep 28, 2023 15:45

LifeSunDeath: Jan 4, 2007; still gay rights and smoke weed every day

fatherboxx posted:

In Rostov-on-Don and Bataysk, near which there are large military garrisons and where many war-supporting volunteers work, pharmacists who sell Lyrica and Tropicamide without prescriptions are periodically detained. Drug users also call it "cartoons" - these are pharmacy eye drops that are used to enhance the effect of other psychoactive substances. After only a few uses, "cartoon" causes a strong dependence, which completely destroys the body in 7-8 months of regular use.

was curious wtf is with the eye drops, and I'm surprised to see this:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-heroin/special-report-in-russia-a-glut-of-heroin-and-denial-idUSTRE70O22X20110125

apparently russia has been using it as a more dangerous form of methadone for a long time now. I have heard of eye drops in the US being lethal if ingested orally, but they're a different drug that has a strong cardiac effect.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 15:59

saratoga: Mar 5, 2001; This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

ethanol posted:

i was thinking about the russians trying to advance and I wonder, with so many mines planted if they even have a way to get through that themselves. maybe its a lot easier to drive through it if you know exactly where they are, or you leave hidden corridors open. i assume the former less than the later. I dunno

Mines are a problem if they're defended, otherwise engineers can move up and remove them. For their own mines, they'd know which areas are mined, and unless they were seriously pushed back to the point that the enemy was now using them, they'd be able to remove any that were in the way.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:03

Dirt5o8: Nov 6, 2008; EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

ethanol posted:

i was thinking about the russians trying to advance and I wonder, with so many mines planted if they even have a way to get through that themselves. maybe its a lot easier to drive through it if you know exactly where they are, or you leave hidden corridors open. i assume the former less than the later. I dunno

That's really the biggest operational problem with mines. You need enough engineer assets available to breach your minefield when you're ready to attack again. You don't want to leave a lane open once the enemy is there as it will likely be found and exploited.

If you're planning on a forever war with no intention of going on the offense anytime soon, then you can go hog wild with artillery scattered mines. That's a future problem for someone else to deal with

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:04

Kaal: May 22, 2002; through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

saratoga posted:

Mines are a problem if they're defended, otherwise engineers can move up and remove them. For their own mines, they'd know which areas are mined, and unless they were seriously pushed back to the point that the enemy was now using them, they'd be able to remove any that were in the way.

I�d put a big asterisk on this assumption. Everyone knows where the mines are in a general sense, but they certainly weren�t laid in a pattern and there�s a good chance that most frontline Russian troops who would remember any specifics have already become casualties or demobilized. A hypothetical Russian offensive would have to pick their way through the minefields just like the Ukrainians, likely without as much training or equipment. Apart from in a few areas in the north where the minefields haven�t been planted in depth, there�s no way that Russians are going to be capable of conducting an opposed offensive.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:11

I dont know: Aug 9, 2003; That Guy here...

Dirt5o8 posted:

That's really the biggest operational problem with mines. You need enough engineer assets available to breach your minefield when you're ready to attack again. You don't want to leave a lane open once the enemy is there as it will likely be found and exploited.

If you're planning on a forever war with no intention of going on the offense anytime soon, then you can go hog wild with artillery scattered mines. That's a future problem for someone else to deal with

Wasn't the current defenses masterminded by Surovikin? Even if Putin still has delusions of conquering all of Ukraine, Surovikin seemed to have a far better sense of what may actually be feasible. The achievable priority is maintaining hold of currently conquered territory, if that means sacrificing an already doomed future offense, then oh well.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:15

mllaneza: Apr 28, 2007; Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952

efb, but it's a good enough video to post twice

EasilyConfused posted:

They've been dragging a lot of old rear end cold war stuff out storage and refurbishing it for over a year now. It's not clear how much more they have available.

Available data on equipment losses suggests that they're running out of stockpiles. As usual, Perun has a video on the topic, and it's got recent data in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs

mllaneza fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Sep 28, 2023

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:23

Deltasquid: Apr 10, 2013; awww...
you guys made me ink!

THUNDERDOME

saratoga posted:

Mines are a problem if they're defended, otherwise engineers can move up and remove them. For their own mines, they'd know which areas are mined, and unless they were seriously pushed back to the point that the enemy was now using them, they'd be able to remove any that were in the way.

In a general sense, yes, but so do the Ukrainians. The Russians will still have to go through the process of demining the fields before they can attack there, which seriously causes friction for your offensive even if they are your own mines

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:24

WarpedLichen: Aug 14, 2008

Claimed footage of Sokolov at an award ceremony on 9/27, but internet commentators are saying it took place on 9/18. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to fake something like this, I can't see you Weekend at Bernie's an admiral for long. Has there been video footage of Kadyrov since the coma thing?
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1707056671271399690#m

WSJ has an interesting article about drones:
https://www.wsj.com/world/drones-ev..._mobilewebshare

Some quotes

quote:

�Today, a column of tanks or a column of advancing troops can be discovered in three to five minutes and hit in another three minutes. The survivability on the move is no more than 10 minutes,� said Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy commander of Ukraine�s HUR military intelligence service. �Surprises have become very difficult to achieve.�

quote:

Russian jamming of the GPS signal�increasingly a problem for Western-made weapons such as Himars missiles, precision shells and guided bombs�meant the pilot had to fly the drone visually, using a satellite map on his screen and comparing it with the camera feed. The target was a Russian 152mm self-propelled artillery piece southwest of Robotyne that was spotted earlier in the day and hit by artillery using cluster munitions that disabled its treads.

As the target was found, the crew alerted colleagues operating a Ukrainian-made winged explosive drone nearby, which, at a cost of some $40,000, was deemed worth expending to blow up a much more valuable artillery piece. �If we let the howitzer sit there, the Russians will just tow it away under the cover of darkness, and repair it easily,� said the pilot, who goes by the call sign Banderas. �Here, we can find the target, and then we can destroy it ourselves without asking anything from our artillery.�

It seems that Russians have improved the reaction speed of their artillery.

If the Ukrainian offensive stalls out, I would imagine that some of their current gains would be ceded? I think I read somewhere a while back that the ground is being held right now because of constant offensive movements to push Russian counterattacks back, but I'm not sure if the ground they have is actually defensible. In any case, I see more articles saying that the war is likely going to be a long one, so I hope that reflects the current thinking of military planners and politicians.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:42

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

WarpedLichen posted:

Has there been video footage of Kadyrov since the coma thing?

Yes.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 16:44

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

LifeSunDeath posted:

was curious wtf is with the eye drops, and I'm surprised to see this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-heroin/special-report-in-russia-a-glut-of-heroin-and-denial-idUSTRE70O22X20110125

apparently russia has been using it as a more dangerous form of methadone for a long time now. I have heard of eye drops in the US being lethal if ingested orally, but they're a different drug that has a strong cardiac effect.

And here was me just wondering what they were doing with the Lyrica i take daily for neuralgia. :stonklol:

# ? Sep 28, 2023 17:20

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

WarpedLichen posted:

quote:
The target was a Russian 152mm self-propelled artillery piece southwest of Robotyne that was spotted earlier in the day and hit by artillery using cluster munitions that disabled its treads.

Excuse me but I was assured by the top analysts on the Forums that Ukraine would only be using cluster munitions to injure and kill children years from now, not to actually fight the Russians!

For actual content, Punchbowl's morning newsletter on Ukraine funding and the House clusterfuck. Bolding mine:

quote:

Despite overwhelming majorities, no clear path for Ukraine aid

One week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a plea for additional American aid, a sobering reality has set in on Capitol Hill � Congress has no clear path, as of this moment, to approve new funding for the embattled U.S. ally.

The issue has become tied up in the dispute over government funding, with Speaker Kevin McCarthy refusing to include new Ukraine aid in any stopgap spending measure over fears that a conservative revolt could cost him his post. In some ways, McCarthy�s own standing has become tied to this issue.

Ukraine in general has become such a charged issue for House Republicans that party leaders late Wednesday night stripped a small portion of Ukraine aid from their version of the FY2024 Defense spending bill. That came just hours after the House overwhelmingly defeated an amendment to strip this exact same funding from the bill. The vote was 330-104. Those 104 �no� votes were all Republicans � nearly half the GOP conference.

Think about that � the House voted against removing the funding from the bill, yet the GOP leadership did it anyway because they may not be able to pass the Defense package if they don�t. This is because they�re only using GOP votes to jam though funding bills, and Ukraine is toxic to many House Republicans.

This doesn�t mean Congress won�t eventually appropriate new funding for Ukraine; there are clear supermajorities in both chambers that back Ukraine aid. Yet right now, supporters don�t have a viable plan to get it across the finish line, with House Republicans remaining the chief roadblock.

The dynamic is worrying many top lawmakers. They say the congressional debate is creating a level of uncertainty about the United States� commitment to Ukraine, and that�s playing right into Russian President Vladimir Putin�s hands.

�There�s no doubt in my mind he�s using what�s going on right now to bolster [Putin�s] position and undermine the Western world�s position,� Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who backs long-term funding for Ukraine, told us. �This whole debate � I mean, it�s BS.�

In early August, President Joe Biden asked for $24 billion to meet Ukraine�s military, economic and humanitarian needs through the end of the year. That number has now been trimmed to $6 billion in a bipartisan Senate stopgap funding proposal designed to keep the government open past Saturday�s deadline � one that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell backs.

At one point during those behind-the-scenes talks on the short-term funding bill, the White House and State Department came up with the $6 billion figure, estimating that would keep the funding spigot turned on for Ukraine over the duration of that Senate stopgap bill � 47 days.

Many Senate Republicans now prefer a clean CR so that Congress can consider and pass a longer-term Ukraine package in a single vote next month. Their preference is to pass a year�s worth of funding that could sustain Ukraine through the 2024 presidential election. These Senate Republicans also believe it would help McCarthy and House Republicans avoid a government shutdown by taking the Ukraine Issue off the table for the moment.

Yet this year-long number could be truly staggering � something in the range of $60 billion to $80 billion. That�s going to be a very difficult vote. So voting multiple times on smaller packages would guarantee that the fissures over Ukraine inside the GOP remain in the headlines.

�We can�t be doing this every three months,� House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) told us. �It�s going to have to pass eventually. There�s too much support for it.�

House Democrats, meanwhile, want GOP Ukraine supporters like McCaul to be more aggressive in pushing for a vote. The House Armed Services Committee�s top Democrat, Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), said that without their nudging, McCarthy �is giving all the appearances of having decided to abandon Ukraine.�

�OK, how are you going to make it not a problem? Because the sit-around-with-your-thumb-up-your-rear end plan doesn�t seem to be working at the moment,� Smith said.

� Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

# ? Sep 28, 2023 17:23

saratoga: Mar 5, 2001; This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

Deltasquid posted:

In a general sense, yes, but so do the Ukrainians. The Russians will still have to go through the process of demining the fields before they can attack there, which seriously causes friction for your offensive even if they are your own mines

There is a cost of course, but it isn't like an undefended mine field is going to be an undefeatable barrier to an offensive. Compared to the (heavily defended) Ukrainian minefields on the far side of the lines, the Russians own mines are hardly a problem.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 17:42

TheDeadlyShoe: Feb 14, 2014

saratoga posted:

There is a cost of course, but it isn't like an undefended mine field is going to be an undefeatable barrier to an offensive. Compared to the (heavily defended) Ukrainian minefields on the far side of the lines, the Russians own mines are hardly a problem.

No reason for it to be undefended. While it's not as hard as clearing someone elses minefield, the Ukrainians absolutely will take them under direct fire, shell them, everything that you would do with your own minefield. And if you do finally clear a lane they'll probably shell it with artillery-deployed mines. It also makes it incredibly obvious where you're going to mount counter offensives....

# ? Sep 28, 2023 17:49

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

WarpedLichen posted:

If the Ukrainian offensive stalls out, I would imagine that some of their current gains would be ceded? I think I read somewhere a while back that the ground is being held right now because of constant offensive movements to push Russian counterattacks back, but I'm not sure if the ground they have is actually defensible.

Ceding the small gains that they have won will be disastrous PR wise. It is unlikely it will come to that though. The Russians have shown absolutely no ability to conduct counter attacks of the magnitude required to eject the Ukrainians from their new holdings. Neither the local counter attacks in the South or the vigorous efforts in the North where VDV units were committed early in the summer bore any fruit.

In addition any attempt to move the significant numbers of troops and vehicles required for a major push to retake territory seized by the AFU is almost certainly going to be spotted well in advance by US intelligence allowing for the Ukrainians to react appropriately.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 19:13

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 15:28

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

MikeC posted:

Ceding the small gains that they have won will be disastrous PR wise. It is unlikely it will come to that though. The Russians have shown absolutely no ability to conduct counter attacks of the magnitude required to eject the Ukrainians from their new holdings. Neither the local counter attacks in the South or the vigorous efforts in the North where VDV units were committed early in the summer bore any fruit.

In addition any attempt to move the significant numbers of troops and vehicles required for a major push to retake territory seized by the AFU is almost certainly going to be spotted well in advance by US intelligence allowing for the Ukrainians to react appropriately.

See also the discussion earlier on the page about Russia trying to attack through their own minefields when Ukraine has guns trained on them.

# ? Sep 28, 2023 19:23

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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